Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

 

Expert Column for Irish Champion Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)

 

 

S1-1     Ingabelle Stakes
CONTENT looks well up to this Listed level in the 1,465m Ingabelle Stakes. She was thrown into the deep end when contesting the Listed Chesham Stakes over 1,400m at Royal Ascot on only her second start after finishing a close third on her debut over 1,425m at Leopardstown in June. That class of race probably came a bit too early in her career, but she had no problem beating APRICOT ICE when getting off the mark in a maiden over this course last month. As a daughter of star stallion GALILEO and dual G1 Nunthorpe Stakes winner MECCA’S ANGEL, she certainly has the pedigree to be top class.

 

KITTY ROSE moved like a smart filly when successful on her debut over 1,400m at Naas last month. She travelled strongly before seeing off the more experienced TANNOLA without any trouble. The first two finished well clear of their rivals and that form looks good.

 

SERIOUS NOTIONS had CONTENT back in third when beaten a nose by BUTTONS on her debut over 1,400m at Leopardstown in June. She didn’t make much impact over 1,400m at the Curragh last time when midfield in a juvenile contest but that was a very hot race for the grade. It was also her first run for more than two months and there’s every chance she will have sharpened up for the experience. Ger Lyons’ youngster is certainly not a filly to be giving up on just yet.

 

APRICOT ICE ran a seriously good race on her debut when runner-up behind CONTENT over 1,400m at Leopardstown. She was no match for the winner, but CONTENT was having her third start and was vastly more experienced than Lyons’ filly. There was a break of two lengths back to third-placed HANNAH BUCKLE and the form looks solid. With plenty of improvement to come, it would be hard to say she’s not up to this level.

 

SEA THE BOSS came right away in the closing stages when a smooth winner of a 1,500m Tipperary maiden on her debut last Sunday. It was particularly impressive that she was able to see off some rivals with proven form with relative ease and she is well worth her place in this race. As a daughter of SEA THE MOON, she is going to stay quite a bit further next season, but she didn’t look short of pace on her debut.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. CONTENT, 5. KITTY ROSE, 10. SERIOUS NOTIONS, 1. APRICOT ICE & 9. SEA THE BOSS

 

1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 2. CONTENT & 5. KITTY ROSE
S1-2: Multiple – 7. DIEGO VELAZQUEZ & 4. CAPULET

 

S1-2     Golden Fleece Stakes
Aidan O’Brien has a galaxy of 2YO stars this season, and the Coolmore maestro rates DIEGO VELAZQUEZ potentially right up there with the best of them. O’Brien has often targeted this 1,600m race with those youngsters at the top of the pile, winning the G2 nine times in the last 13 years, including with subsequent Derby winners AUSTRALIA and AUGUSTE RODIN. 

 

An expensive yearling, DIEGO VELAZQUEZ, has an impressive performance on his debut in a Curragh maiden over 1,400m three weeks ago. The son of FRANKEL had only just recovered from injury, so O’Brien felt that he was only just ready for the race. However, despite his inexperience showing early on, the colt exploded when shaken up, never looking stronger than he was at the line. He will have learned plenty from that.

 

It is worth mentioning that O’Brien has often won this race with his second-string, and stablemate CAPULET knew his job first time out when winning at Dundalk over 1,600m. That was on the polytrack, a surface which suited CAPULET, as his sire JUSTIFY won the American Triple Crown in 2018. But MOHAWK CHIEF, the half-brother, did win over 1,400m on turf for O’Brien, so CAPULET remains interesting.

 

O’Brien’s son, Joseph, relishes the battles he has with his father, and in ATLANTIC COAST, he provides a solid rival. ATLANTIC COAST won a maiden at the Curragh over 1,400m, somewhat surprising his trainer, who had not then entered him for Group races. He both travelled and quickened up well to beat Ger Lyons’s FORMAL DISPLAY. FORMAL DISPLAY was the stronger in the market that day and didn’t see too much daylight.

 

DEEPONE overcame the outside draw to win first time out over 1,463m at this course. He was more enterprisingly ridden next time at Killarney over 1,636m and saw off second-rate opposition in style. The slow gallop when DEEPONE dropped back to 1,491m at Tipperary last month ruined any hopes of a hat-trick, and returning to the longer trip will be a plus.

 

SELECTIONS: 7. DIEGO VELAZQUEZ, 4. CAPULET, 1. ATLANTIC COAST, 8. FORMAL DISPLAY & 5. DEEPONE

 

2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 7. DIEGO VELAZQUEZ & 4. CAPULET
S1-3: Multiple – 12. TAHIYRA & 3. JUST BEAUTIFUL

 

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:   
Banker – 7. DIEGO VELAZQUEZ
Selections – 4. CAPULET, 1. ATLANTIC COAST, 8. FORMAL DISPLAY & 5. DEEPONE
S1-3:   
Banker – 12. TAHIYRA
Selections – 3. JUST BEAUTIFUL, 9. MEDITATE, 13. ZARINSK & 5. ROGUE MILLENNIUM

 

S1-3     Matron Stakes
Punters have not had an easy time of it in the Matron Stakes, a 1,600m G1 for fillies and mares, over the past decade, only one market leader has obliged in that time, but that could change on Saturday as Dermot Weld’s 3YO TAHIYRA is surely going to be very hard to beat. This half-sister to the top class TARNAWA has won four of her five career starts, three at G1 level, and the only defeat came when a close second to MAWJ in the G1 1000 Guineas Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket in May. Since then, she has won the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh and the G1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. That last success came on Good to Fast ground and while she probably prefers a slightly softer surface, conditions at Leopardstown shouldn’t be a problem. It is also worth pointing out that 3YOs have won seven of the last eight renewals.

 

She takes on her old rival MEDITATE again. Aidan O’Brien’s filly has finished behind TAHIYRA in her few of her last starts and there is no reason to suggest she will turn things around here. A daughter of NO NAY NEVER, MEDITATE won the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf over 1,600m at Keeneland on quick ground in November. She will enjoy this surface, but nothing she has done this year suggests she can beat the favourite.

 

Ger Lyons’ ZARINSK goes well at Leopardstown and she shouldn’t be far away from a podium finish. She has won three of her five visits here, including a G3 over 1,600m in May and a 1,428m G2 last time out in July. She perhaps wouldn’t want it to get too quick, but she has won on a variety of ground types.

 

Paddy Twomey caused a shock in this race last year with PEARLS GALORE and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if JUST BEAUTIFUL follows up for the yard. She was an impressive front-running winner of a G2 over 1,600m at the Curragh on her last start in May and will relish quicker conditions here.  

 

ROGUE MILLENNIUM won the G2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes over 1,600m at Royal Ascot. She may not have liked the ground at Deauville last time, so a return to a sounder surface should suit and she could pick up some prize money.

 

SELECTIONS: 12. TAHIYRA, 3. JUST BEAUTIFUL, 9. MEDITATE, 13. ZARINSK & 5. ROGUE MILLENNIUM

 

3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 12. TAHIYRA & 3. JUST BEAUTIFUL
S1-4: Multiple – 3. ONESTO & 1. ALFLAILA

 

S1-4     Irish Champion Stakes
The latest running of the G1 Irish Champion Stakes looks an intriguing contest with several of the contenders holding solid claims.

 

Frankie Dettori’s farewell tour shows no signs of slowing down and his mount in this, ONESTO, should go well. Second in the race last year, the son of FRANKEL was last seen finishing fourth in the G1 Prix Jacques le Marois over an inadequate trip of 1,600m. Most of his form has come with some cut in the ground, but he was a touch unlucky in last season’s G1 Japan Cup over 2,400m on a faster surface, so should be fine under these conditions. Last season’s run in this race was a career best and he also has the assistance of Dettori this time around.

 

A serious challenge could come from ALFLAILA. Owen Burrows’ colt has won his last four and is clearly in the form of his life, so is more than worth a tilt at this G1 prize. He looked really good when winning the G2 York Stakes over 2,051m last time and has to be considered on the back of that.

 

While he’s never run over this 2,000m distance, KING OF STEEL could thrive over it. He ran a remarkable race to finish second to AUGUSTE RODIN in the G1 Derby Stakes at Epsom over 2,405m on just the third start of his career, before bolting up in the G2 King Edward VII Stakes over 2,392m at Royal Ascot. Roger Varian’s 3YO didn’t run too badly when third in the G1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2,392m last time, but the way he finished suggested a drop back in trip would suit.

 

NASHWA ran a fine race to be second to MOSTAHDAF in the G1 International Stakes over 2,051m at York last time. She seems to be at her best on quick ground, so conditions should suit her here. John and Thady Gosden’s contender will likely need a career best here, but her run last time was very encouraging and she rarely runs a bad race.

 

AUGUSTE RODIN has a bit to prove after a disappointing effort in the aforementioned G1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He was very good in the Derby and his trainer Aidan O’Brien is a genius at bringing one back to form after a poor effort.

 

SELECTIONS: 3. ONESTO, 1. ALFLAILA, 8. KING OF STEEL, 5. NASHWA & 7. AUGUSTE RODIN

 

4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 3. ONESTO & 1. ALFLAILA
S1-5: Multiple – 1. BUCKAROO & 11. VICTORIA ROAD

 

S1-5     Solonaway Stakes
VICTORIA ROAD may be the best starting point in this valuable 1,600m G2 contest. A winner last season in G1 company, when staying on strongly to win the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf over 1,600m in Keeneland, Aidan O’Brien’s son of SAXON WARRIOR returned to action only recently in the G2 Prix Guillaume d'Ornano over 2,000m at Deauville. He performed underwhelmingly there, finishing seventh, and there was only a laboured response when Ryan Moore asked for maximum effort, but that was his first run after nearly 9 months so it’s worth forgiving. Back on firmer ground and over this 1,600m trip, he should improve., but there must still be doubts about whether he has trained on.

 

The Joseph O’Brien-trained BUCKAROO has been consistent in three starts so far this season, including when winning the Listed Heritage Stakes over this course and same distance. He then stepped up in trip to 1,850m in the G1 Prix d'Ispahan at ParisLongchamp, where his stamina just looked to give out and he was run down in the final strides. It was clear that he’d appreciate a sharper trip, so now dropping back to 1,600m should be ideal.

 

With conditions in his favour, POWER UNDER ME should offer more value than likely favourite VICTORIA ROAD. POWER UNDER ME finished behind BUCKAROO on his seasonal reappearance in the Heritage Stakes at Leopardstown over 1,600m in April, but since then he has improved to win the G3 Amethyst Stakes over this trip in May. Last time out he was short of room in the G2 Minstrel Stakes 1,428m and while staying on well, could never reel in the leaders. This step back up in trip should suit, but one concern would be quick ground conditions as most of his best form has come on a softer surface.

 

LORD MASSUSUS posted a career best effort on his last start, when staying on strongly to land the G3 Desmond Stakes over this course and distance. That was only his third attempt at 1,600m and he now has two wins from three starts at the trip. With further improvement expected, he can’t be left off the shortlist.

 

Frankie Dettori has been booked to ride BOLD DISCOVERY for Mrs John Harrington. This 3YO has only had seven starts and won the Listed Celebration Stakes over 1,600m at the Curragh on good-to-firm ground this season, so conditions look set to suit.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. BUCKAROO, 11. VICTORIA ROAD, 3. POWER UNDER ME, 9. LORD MASSUSUS & 7. BOLD DISCOVERY

 

5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 1. BUCKAROO & 11. VICTORIA ROAD
S1-6: Multiple – 6. VALIANT KING & 5. ADELAIDE RIVER

 

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:   
Banker – 1. BUCKAROO
Selections – 11. VICTORIA ROAD, 3. POWER UNDER ME, 9. LORD MASSUSUS & 7. BOLD DISCOVERY
S1-6:   
Banker – 6. VALIANT KING
Selections – 5. ADELAIDE RIVER, 1. AL AASY, 4. WHITE BIRCH & 3. MASHHOOR

 

S1-6     Kilternan Stakes
3YOs have a good record against their elders in the G3 Kilternan Stakes over 2,400m, winning seven of the last 10 renewals and another of the younger generation can triumph this year is VALIANT KING. A winner of one race, he has only finished out of the frame in one of his six career starts to date. That win came in a 2,000m Navan maiden earlier this season, where he stretched away to win by five and a half  lengths and marked himself down as a pattern class performer. And so it proved, as he was narrowly touched off in the King George V Stakes over 2,392m at Royal Ascot, form that has worked out well since with the winner going on to win a G3, and then bumped into a strong rival in the G3 Ballyroan Stakes over 2,392m at Naas last time.

 

ADELAIDE RIVER has also been narrowly denied on his last two starts. He ran a gallant race, when attempting to make all the running in the G1 Irish Derby over 2,400m, only going down to his strongly fancied stablemate at the line. Last time out he was also just run down in the G1 Grand Prix de Paris over 2,400m, and those two bits of form are the strongest in the field. He should appreciate the return to good ground too.

 

William Haggas’ raiders must always be respected and the fact he’s chosen to send AL AASY over to Ireland shouldn’t be taken lightly. Now a 6YO, AL AASY has been in fine form this season, winning two times from three starts, including when landing the G3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes over 2,091m at Haydock when last seen. He has won several times over 2,400m before, so the step up in trip is no concern, but he does tend to be a horse who needs everything to fall right.

 

WHITE BIRCH has been given a break since finishing down the field in the G1 Irish Derby. Before that he stayed on well to grab third in the G1 Derby over 2,405m at Epsom, proving that he has no problem with this trip. His break may have done him good and he could take another step forward now.

 

MASHHOOR is still fairly lightly raced for a 5YO after only 13 starts. John Murtagh’s runner has been in form this season but he needs to bounce back from a disappointing display at York over 2,051m last time.

 

SELECTIONS: 6. VALIANT KING, 5. ADELAIDE RIVER, 1. AL AASY, 4. WHITE BIRCH & 3. MASHHOOR

 

6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 6. VALIANT KING & 5. ADELAIDE RIVER
S1-7: Multiple – 8. NUSRET & 1. JACKFINBAR

 

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 6. VALIANT KING, 5. ADELAIDE RIVER & 1. AL AASY
S1-7: Multiple – 8. NUSRET, 1. JACKFINBAR & 5. ETNA ROSSO
S1-8: Multiple – 16. KAYHANA, 12. BROADHURST & 14. URBAN SPRAWL

 

S1-7     3yo+ Handicap
This 2,564m handicap looks an ideal opportunity for smart hurdler NUSRET to continue his progress on the Flat. He developed into a decent jumper earlier in the year, finishing third in a G1 contest at Aintree’s Grand National meeting and then performing well when fourth in an even better G1 prize at the Punchestown Festival. The way he won over 2,800m at the Curragh when returned to the Flat in June showed he has continued to thrive. He only won by half a length but had plenty more up his sleeve than the official winning distance and he has always looked capable of developing into a smart dual-purpose performer. The three-month break since his last run is no problem.

 

JACKFINBAR was successful at G3 level over 3,000m at ParisLongchamp way back in 2018. He’s only run four times since, as he spent four years off the track before joining Irish champion jumps trainer Willie Mullins. His fourth behind Brazil in a competitive Galway handicap over 2,400m was a solid effort, but he couldn’t follow it up when finishing in midfield when pulling too hard in the Ebor Handicap over 2,771m at York. This slightly shorter distance is in his favour and Frankie Dettori takes the ride.

 

ETNA ROSSO was probably ridden too aggressively when only fourth behind smart prospect HARBOUR WIND in the Listed Vinnie Roe Stakes over 2,800m at Leopardstown. His previous form suggests he stays this distance well. He was runner-up in a Navan Listed race over 2,600m before finishing a creditable fifth in the G2 Queen’s Vase over 2,800m a Royal Ascot. This type of race could be perfect.

 

IMAGINARIUM was shuffled back at a crucial stage in a decent 2,400m handicap behind BRAZIL at the Galway Festival early last month. That meant he was forced to come from much further back than ideal, so he did well to cross the winning line in sixth place. This will be just his third race of the season and he looks capable of improving on what he’s shown so far.

 

MERLIN GIANT beat higher-rated IMPERO when easily landing a 2,559m Down Royal maiden in June. He didn’t live up to expectations when finishing in midfield in the Galway Hurdle over 3,210m early last month, but he has plenty of potential returned to the flat. His trainer Emmet Mullins is always worth respecting in these valuable handicaps.

 

SELECTIONS: 8. NUSRET, 1. JACKFINBAR, 5. ETNA ROSSO, 7. IMAGINARIUM & 13. MERLIN GIANT

 

7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 8. NUSRET & 1. JACKFINBAR
S1-8: Multiple – 16. KAYHANA & 12. BROADHURST

 

S1-8     3yo+ Handicap
3YOs have beaten their elders in this valuable 1,465m handicap race for the last two years.

 

The younger generation again look strong, and they include URBAN SPRAWL, whose stable were successful 12 months ago with I’M A GAMBLER. URBAN SPRAWL is a 1,400m specialist. He won three races over the 1,400m trip in his first season, but he has improved again this year. He won again at Goodwood over 1,400m in May and then produced a career-best performance to finish third in the hugely competitive Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot, where the stiff uphill climb over 1,600m just found him out. He is so consistent and even at Goodwood 1,400m last time he dug deep when worn down by the chasing pack.

 

Dermot Weld’s KAYHANA is another of the younger ones who looks to be on a tempting mark. Her form plateaued after she won a fast ground fillies maiden on her debut at Limerick over 1,400m 15 months ago. However, the signs were more encouraging at Cork over 1,600m in midsummer, when back on the drying ground KAYHANA finished her race off well to chase home the unbeaten VAIN GLORIA. She was beaten less than a length into third place in her first handicap over 1,600m at the Curragh last month and looks sure to be in the mix.

 

Of the other 3YOs, Aidan O’Brien’s BROADHURST was an unlucky loser at Naas over 1,600m when last seen back in May. He met traffic problems at a crucial time, yet was beaten only a head and, significantly, can now run off the same mark.

 

DUNUM won six races between 1,400m and 1,800m for his new trainer last season and has just got better and better this summer. He has the perfect blend of speed and stamina and achieved a personal best when winning at Galway over 1,400m last month.

 

The drying ground will suit HOTROCKET, whose three wins have all come over this 1,400m trip. He has won two of his five races since joining Joseph O’Brien, and hit the line strongly when producing a career-best performance at Fairyhouse in July. We can forgive him his subsequent flop at Galway as the going was testing for their summer festival.

 

SELECTIONS: 16. KAYHANA, 12. BROADHURST, 14. URBAN SPRAWL, 7. HOTROCKET & 4. DUNUM

 

 

 

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