Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

 

Expert Column for Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)

 

S1-1     Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere

 

BEAUVATIER should take the step up to the top level in his stride in the G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere over 1,400m. He has won all four of his races and is an exciting juvenile with a huge amount of class. Yann Barberot’s youngster has got better as he’s gone up in distance after making a winning debut over 1,000m at Chantilly in May before following up over 1,200m at Saint-Cloud three weeks later. It was impressive to see him barely come out of second gear when landing a Deauville Listed race over 1,400m in July and he again travelled like a top-class 2YO when successful in a G3 over this course and distance a month ago. He doesn’t appear to do much when he hits the front, so the likely strong pace will help.

 

HENRY ADAMS will attempt to give Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien his ninth win in this race. He landed the same 1,400m Naas maiden as stablemate and subsequent Derby winner AUGUSTE RODIN had won a year earlier when making a successful debut in July. It was interesting he was fitted with blinkers to help him travel through the race better when landing a Leopardstown G3 over 1,428m on his second start. He needs to take another step forward for this rise in grade, but he does look the type of 2YO to keep on improving with every race.

 

ZABIARI has been successful on both his previous visits to ParisLongchamp. He made a winning debut over 1,300m in May and returned to this Paris course to land the G3 Prix des Chenes over 1,600m three weeks ago. There was nothing wrong with his two defeats in Listed contests at Deauville sandwiched between his victories, but the first of those, when runner-up behind BEAUVATIER over 1,400m, does give him something to find.

 

ROSALLION should like the drying ground. He was disappointing when only third in the G2 Champagne Stakes over 1,400m at Doncaster two weeks ago, but he had looked very good when showing a smart change of pace to win the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes over 1,400m at Ascot in July. With more suitable conditions, Richard Hannon’s runner could easily bounce back to form.

 

UNQUESTIONABLE banged his head coming out of the stalls when a disappointing fourth in the G1 Phoenix Stakes over 1,200m at the Curragh last time. The step up to 1,400m will help.

 

SELECTIONS: 4. BEAUVATIER, 5. HENRY ADAMS, 1. ZABIARI, 2. ROSALLION & 3. UNQUESTIONABLE

 

1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 4. BEAUVATIER & 5. HENRY ADAMS
S1-2: Multiple – 4. LES PAVOTS & 7. DARNATION

 

S1-2     Prix Marcel Boussac

 

A field of talented 2YOs line up for the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac over 1,600m.

 

LES PAVOTS won on her debut over 1,200m and has improved steadily ever since, recently winning two consecutive races over 1,400m, including the G2 Prix du Calvados at Deauville on heavy ground. She goes well on any ground and, having handled the step up in trip from 1,200m to 1,400m well this season, should have no problem with the distance. Racing in G1 company presents a new test altogether but she deserves to take her chance.

 

DARNATION, trained by UK-based Karl Burke, who is having a terrific season, has won three of her four career starts. Most recently seen landing the G2 May Hill Stakes over 1,600m at Doncaster by three lengths, she could be a real danger to her rivals. She is proven over this trip and is fancied to take the step up into G1 company in her stride.

 

FREVILLE is a course and distance winner having won the G3 Prix d’Aumale over 1,600m on her last start. Having had over three weeks to recover from that run, and clearly liking the track at ParisLongchamp, she should be ready to run another big race. Stepping up in grade, this will test her, but she has the ability to be in the mix.

 

Aidan O’Brien’s OPERA SINGER took a step forward last time out when winning the G3 Newtownanner Stud Irish EBF Stakes over 1,600m at the Curragh by an impressive six and half lengths. The JUSTIFY filly has won both her starts over 1,600m and should have no difficulty at ParisLongchamp. O’Brien is having a typically good season and has trained four winners of this race in the past, so this filly should be taken seriously.

 

Andre Fabre won this race two years ago with ZELLIE and he relies on ZANDY, a daughter of FRANKEL, this time. She improved on her debut effort to win a conditions race at Chantilly over 1,800m earlier this month. She had to work hard that day on soft ground, so the drop back to 1,600m may not be ideal, but her master trainer can never be ruled out on Arc day.

 

SELECTIONS: 4. LES PAVOTS, 7. DARNATION, 2. FREVILLE, 9. OPERA SINGER & 1. ZANDY

 

2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 4. LES PAVOTS & 7. DARNATION
S1-3: Multiple – 13. ACE IMPACT & 4. SIMCA MILLE

 

S1-3     Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe

 

Despite a few notable absentees this year, there’s still a stellar cast of 15 going to post for the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe over 2,400m.

 

Recent G1 St Leger Stakes over 2,905m winner CONTINUOUS has been added to the field at a cost of €120,000 (just under HK$1million). He won the final Classic of the British Flat season comfortably, and before that powered away to win the G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes over 2,371m. He couldn’t quicken with the likes of ACE IMPACT and FEED THE FLAME in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly over 2,100m but arrives here in better form this time over a more suitable distance.

 

ACE IMPACT, though, still looks the one to beat. He has five wins from five career starts and was mightily impressive in the Prix du Jockey Club. Stamina remains the question mark, as 2,100m is the furthest he’s raced over, but it won’t be the most gruelling of renewals given the drying ground.

 

FEED THE FLAME only made his debut in April and kicked things off with back-to-back wins, firstly over 2,100m and then 2,150m at ParisLongchamp. He was then thrown into the G1 Prix du Jockey Club on only his third start where he finished a respectable fourth, but he was still well behind ACE IMPACT. He took a good step forward to land the G1 Grand Prix de Paris over 2,400m, and then finished runner-up in the G2 Prix Niel over 2,400m, a well-recognised trial for the Arc. That run came after a two-month break and would have sharpened him up, but he does need a career best if he’s going to turn the tables on ACE IMPACT and would prefer softer ground.

 

Coming in a little under the radar is SIMCA MILLE. Connections decided not to run in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot earlier this year due to the soft ground, so they will be pleased to see the forecast in Paris is warm and dry. Instead, they waited for the G1 Grosser Preis von Berlin over 2,400m, which he won well. That may not have been the strongest G1 run this season, but it certainly looked a good stepping stone for a horse that’s clearly had the Arc as his main target all year. He has landed the widest barrier of all which isn’t ideal but should outrun his odds.

 

Although the ground may be slightly quicker than ideal, it’s hard to leave out HUKUM. The 6YO is a dual G1-winner over similar distance this season and will surely run another solid race.

 

SELECTIONS: 13. ACE IMPACT, 4. SIMCA MILLE, 15. CONTINUOUS, 12. FEED THE FLAME & 7. HUKUM

 

3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 13. ACE IMPACT & 4. SIMCA MILLE
S1-4: Multiple – 6. JANNAH ROSE & 9. LUMIERE ROCK

 

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3:   
Banker – 13. ACE IMPACT
Selections – 4. SIMCA MILLE, 15. CONTINUOUS, 12. FEED THE FLAME & 7. HUKUM
S1-4:   
Banker – 6. JANNAH ROSE
Selections – 9. LUMIERE ROCK, 3. AL HUSN, 12. BLUE ROSE CEN & 10. MUSKOKA

 

S1-4     Prix de l'Opera

 

Newmarket trainer Roger Varian recorded his first G1 victory in the Prix de l’Opera in 2011 where he now saddles AL HUSN.

 

The 4YO daughter of DUBAWI has improved with every season and reached the top of her game in the G1 Nassau Stakes over 1,979m where she beat BLUE ROSE CEN into fourth place. She then lined up at the start of the G1 Yorkshire Oaks, where a combination of very fast ground and a first attempt over the 2,371m distance proved too difficult for her. Although the ground is drying out in Paris, the return to 2,000m is a positive.

 

As a dual classic winner over 1,600m and 2,100m, it is very hard to ignore the Christopher Head-trained BLUE ROSE CEN. It didn’t work out for her in the G1 Nassau Stakes over 1,979m and she then lined up in the G1 Prix Vermeille where the 2,400m trip proved a touch too far. Only a 3YO, she has had her share of tough races and you must wonder if she still retains her enthusiasm.

 

JANNAH ROSE, on the other hand, has only run four times this season and comes into this G1 relatively fresh. Trained by Carlos Laffon-Parias, she lifted the 2,000m G1 Prix Saint-Alary in May before being hampered in the G1 2,100m Prix de Diane where she eventually finished sixth behind BLUE ROSE CEN. After that unfortunate incident, she was given a break and then came back to win a G2 over 2,000m at Deauville. This seems the perfect target for her and she shouldn’t be far away.

 

If JANNAH ROSE comes into this race with a great chance, so must LUMIERE ROCK. The Irish raider was beaten only a head by the French filly when they met at Deauville in the G2 Prix Alec Head over 2,000m. Her trainer Joseph O’Brien then ran her again in the G2 Blandford Stakes over 2,000m where she beat JACKIE OH by three lengths. Like many fillies at this time of the year, she seems to be improving and could spring a bit of a surprise here.

German raider MUSKOKA is going to make her first international appearance but as the winner of the G1 Henkel-Preis Der Diana - German Oaks over 2,200m, she has no reason to hide. The 2,200m of the German Oaks forced her to go to the limits of her staying power and a drop back to 2,000m can be only beneficial. Relatively fresh, she can easily collect some prize money here.

 

SELECTIONS: 6. JANNAH ROSE, 9. LUMIERE ROCK, 3. AL HUSN, 12. BLUE ROSE CEN & 10. MUSKOKA

 

4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 6. JANNAH ROSE & 9. LUMIERE ROCK
S1-5: Multiple – 9. PONNTOS & 3. MOSS TUCKER

 

S1-5     Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp

 

The G1 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp over 1,000m is always run at a ferocious pace.

 

This year’s contest looks one of the more open in recent years and it may pay to take a chance on Czech-raider PONNTOS, running in the race for a third year in a row. He finished sixth in this back in 2021 and seventh from a wide draw 12 months ago. However, both those runs came on really bad ground and the faster conditions should help him demonstrate his blistering speed. Breaking from barrier two, he is ideally positioned to try and make every yard and can outrun his likely big odds. Having won over 1,200m back home in August, he was only narrowly beaten by COEUR DE PIERRE in a G3 over course and distance last month.

 

MOSS TUCKER finished fifth in the race last year and returns 12 months later a better horse having won four times since. He won the G3 Phoenix Sprint Stakes over 1,200m on his penultimate start and put in a career best last time to emerge victorious in the G1 Flying Five Stakes over 1,000m at the Curragh. Ken Condon’s charge is in the form of his life and should go very well.

 

An in-form HIGHFIELD PRINCESS would be very hard to beat in this, but she has been pretty inconsistent this season. She was very good when winning the G2 King George Stakes over 1,000m at Goodwood and while she has run well in several other races, she hasn’t managed to get her head in front. John Quinn’s stable star was disappointing behind MOSS TUCKER in the Flying Five Stakes last time and needs to bounce back.

 

EQUALITY has been in great form this season winning over 1,019m and 1,009m at Windsor and Sandown. His form has improved as he has stepped up in grade finishing sixth in the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes over 1,000m at York and then third to MOSS TUCKER in the G1 Flying Five Stakes at the Curragh last time. He is another who will love this speedy track and should be in the mix.

 

SELECTIONS: 9. PONNTOS, 3. MOSS TUCKER, 19. HIGHFIELD PRINCESS & 7. EQUALITY

 

5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 9. PONNTOS & 3. MOSS TUCKER
S1-6: Multiple – 1. KINROSS & 12. SAUTERNE

 

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-5:   
Banker – 9. PONNTOS
Selections – 3. MOSS TUCKER, 19. HIGHFIELD PRINCESS & 7. EQUALITY
S1-6:   
Banker – 1. KINROSS
Selections – 12. SAUTERNE, 5. KING GOLD, 8. SHOULDVEBEENARING & 9. CACHET

 

S1-6     Prix de la Foret

 

KINROSS will likely prove hard to beat in this year’s Prix de la Foret over 1,400m. Ralph Beckett’s 6YO is superb over this 1,400m trip and is enjoying another good campaign having won the G2 Lennox Stakes at Goodwood over 1,400m and G2 City Of York Stakes over 1,400m at York. He won this race last year in impressive fashion and although the ground might be quicker than ideal, he still looks the one to beat.

 

SAUTERNE looks a very worthy challenger, though. Despite being a 3YO, she isn’t lacking in experience having already run 11 times in her career so far. She has gradually moved through the grades and having finished second in the G1 Prix Jean Prat over 1,400m and third in the G1 Prix Rothschild over 1,600m, she put in a career best to win the G1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp over 1,600m last time. Patrice Cottier’s challenger quickened away in quite eye-catching fashion there and another big performance can be expected.

 

Another horse in fine form is KING GOLD. He’s won three of his last four, including the G3 Prix de la Porte over 1,400m at Longchamp and G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest over 1,300m at Deauville. KING GOLD beat a pretty handy field in that race at Deauville, so this looks the logical next step although the likely good ground isn’t ideal as he is so effective in the mud.

 

SHOULDVEBEENARING ran the race of his life last time when narrowly touched off by a neck in the G1 Sprint Cup Stakes at Haydock over 1,200m. It’s been a busy campaign, but he seems to be holding his form well on what will be his 12th start of the calendar year.

 

CACHET caught the eye on her first run back after 15 months on the sidelines over this 1,405m trip at Doncaster two weeks ago. She was a bit late on that day and will prefer this faster surface. It is unclear whether she retains the ability that saw her win the G1 1000 Guineas over 1,600m at Newmarket back in May 2022, but she isn’t dismissed lightly.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. KINROSS, 12. SAUTERNE, 5. KING GOLD, 8. SHOULDVEBEENARING & 9. CACHET

 

6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 1. KINROSS & 12. SAUTERNE
S1-7: Multiple – 3. DEEP HOPE & 4. APAX

 

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 1. KINROSS, 12. SAUTERNE & 5. KING GOLD
S1-7: Multiple – 3. DEEP HOPE, 4. APAX & 14. PEDRITO
S1-8: Multiple – 2. BEMER, 1. DAWN INTELLO & 12. MONEYMAN

 

S1-7     Class 1 Handicap

 

You always need some luck in this 1,300m Class 1 Handicap and it would be very difficult to find a horse that has had more bad luck in running than DEEP HOPE. Two starts ago at Deauville, he was hampered in the final phase of the 1,300m race on the polytrack where he eventually finished in sixth place. He then ran at ParisLongchamp in a 1,400m handicap and again, every time he tried to make his bid for the winning post, he was either stopped or hampered. In the end he finished down the back of the field but if things go his way, he should be able to finally get onto the podium.

 

Bought at the Arqana sales for horses in training, APAX quickly confirmed that his new connections had made a good investment when he won a 1,300m handicap on the straight track at Deauville. He received a penalty for that victory, but again produced another good performance in a 1,400m 3yo Handicap where MONAPIA beat him by a nose. He can run in any ground and while he is being pitched against the older generation, he should once more run well.

 

Trained by Henri-Alex Pantall, PEDRITO ran a fine race when finishing a very close third over 1,400m at ParisLongchamp a few weeks ago, the same race where DEEP HOPE was unlucky. He might not win but should run into a place.

 

The draw is extremely important in this race and top-weight LANAKEN will leave from gate five, which bodes well. In June, he produced a very good performance to finish second in a major handicap over 1,400m at this track. On his next start in August, he won his handicap over 1,400m on the polytrack at Deauville, for which he received quite a hefty penalty. However, he has freshness on his side and with an inside draw he will be able to run close to the pace, which is his preferred running style.

 

Far from consistent, OZAN could win this type of handicap if he happens to have a good day. He has only had four runs this year and his second in a strong handicap at Saint-Cloud over 1,400m in May was a really good effort. He arrives as a fresh horse which will help.

 

SELECTIONS: 3. DEEP HOPE, 4. APAX, 14. PEDRITO, 1. LANAKEN & 5. OZAN

 

7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 3. DEEP HOPE & 4. APAX
S1-8: Multiple – 2. BEMER & 1. DAWN INTELLO

 

S1-8     Class 1 Handicap

 

BEMER may well be able to take advantage of the return to handicap company in the final race of the day, a Class 1 handicap over 2,000m. Two starts ago, Andreas Suborics’ 4YO won a 2,000m Class 2 handicap in ready fashion at Deauville and was then pitched in G3 company over this course and distance on his last start, where he wasn’t disgraced when only beaten a couple of lengths. After only 12 starts, there should be more to come and back down in class, BEMER could be the one to beat.

 

Top-weight DAWN INTELLO is well accustomed to contesting Group races, having won a G3 over 2,000m in Italy last season and the season before that the G3 La Coupe De Maisons-Laffitte over this course and distance. On his most recent outing this season he was a winner in a Class 1 race on the polytrack at Chantilly over 1,900m. He will be dangerous if in the same form as last time.

 

BEVAN is another last-time-out winner, landing a Class 2 handicap at ParisLongchamp over 1,850m, a race where MONEYMAN finished just behind in third. BEVAN didn’t have the clearest passage through that race as he was locked away on the rail entering the final 600m and had to be sharp to quicken up when switched out, but he stayed on well and was clearly on top at the line. However, this step up in trip isn’t sure to suit the son of ZARAK, whose four wins to date have come over shorter and he has been beaten on five previous attempts over 2,000m.

 

MONEYMAN lacked the pace to quicken up over 1,850m last time and may be better suited to this extra distance. Andre Fabre’s son of KINGMAN has only won once – on debut at Chantilly over 1,600m – from his 11 career starts, but has run plenty of good races in defeat, including over this trip. His staying-on third last time was only his second start of the season and he may have enough scope to reverse the form from last time with BEVAN.

 

BEHTAR was third to DAWN INTELLO last time out at Chantilly over 1,900m and although he hasn’t won yet this year, his last three runs have all been solid. The Aga Khan-owned son of KITTEN’S JOY should appreciate a sound surface and could easily pick up some prize money.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. BEMER, 1. DAWN INTELLO, 12. MONEYMAN, 3. BEHTAR & 7. BEVAN

 

 

 

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