 Expert - Brett Davis | |
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| Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts. | |
Expert Column for Turnbull Stakes Day (S1) (Brett Davis)
S1-1 Rose of Kingston Stakes
PRINCESS GRACE has enhanced her profile as a genuine top class mare recently with a number of excellent performances at the highest level. The former American filly arrived in Australia with a formidable record winning six of her first seven starts. The transition to the southern hemisphere has taken place without a hitch and she’s yet to finish any worse than fourth. With a return to mares company and excellent draw from the tricky 1,400m start point she’s the standout selection.
LIFE LESSONS chased home the newest star of the Australian turf in AMELIA’S JEWEL last start and you’d expect that form to hold up well. She was thrown in the deep end on that occasion but found the line with power under incredible pressure. She’s now classified as a serious and genuine contender with all conditions to suit.
SKEW WIFF arrives in Melbourne from New Zealand for her first race on Australian soil. Her win in the G1 Tarzino Trophy over 1,400m was both gutsy and polished and she’ll no doubt measure up. The softer track conditions are definitely in her favour but the wide draw, from this start point, suggests she’ll cover ground. The penalty received at the weights for her recent G1 victory is also a slight deterrent but it’s difficult to imagine her running a poor race.
WROTE TO ARATAKI won the G3 Geoffrey Bellmaine Stakes last campaign when leading throughout to score. A long winter spell followed shortly thereafter before a brilliant hard finishing first up run in the G3 W.W. Cochram Stakes at Caulfield. She was then ridden forward in the G2 Let’s Elope Stakes over the same course and distance but overhauled quickly at the 200m point in the straight. She’s talented enough to feature in the finish here and worth another chance.
AUSBRED FLIRT arrives from Sydney following a strong first up win at Randwick and is worth consideration for exotics. The Sydney form appears strong against the Melbourne form lines this season and that elevates her potential to run well. She’s a long way out in the handicap’s so a huge effort is required, but she’s unbeaten at the distance and Craig Williams takes the ride.
SELECTIONS: 3. PRINCESS GRACE, 10. LIFE LESSONS, 1. SKEW WIFF, 4. WROTE TO ARATAKI & 13. AUSBRED FLIRT
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 3. PRINCESS GRACE & 10. LIFE LESSONS
S1-2: Multiple – 16. MOSTLY CLOUDY & 7. ATHABASCAN
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-1:
Banker – 3. PRINCESS GRACE
Selections – 10. LIFE LESSONS, 1. SKEW WIFF, 4. WROTE TO ARATAKI & 13. AUSBRED FLIRT
S1-2:
Banker – 16. MOSTLY CLOUDY
Selections – 7. ATHABASCAN, 2. GOLDMAN, 15. FUTURE HISTORY & 10. ALASKAN GOD
S1-2 The Bart Cummings
MOSTLY CLOUDY arrived in Australia last year and has been aimed at the 2023 G1 Melbourne Cup ever since. He hasn’t quite reach the heights that connections would’ve hoped but he’s not far away from further improving. He notched up his first Australian win last start over this course and trip with a dazzling final 200m to win running away. He’s well weighted and rock hard fit and I’d expect him to be right around the mark.
ATHABASCAN was imported to Australia from France a year ago but took a longtime to settle into his new home. Trainer John O’Shea has persisted with a long but well spaced continual campaign, and it’s having the desired effect. He recently run himself back into form by winning a listed and G3 2,400m event in Sydney and therefore can’t be overlooked. It’s highly likely better is still to come so he’s difficult to oppose despite the diversity of this event.
GOLDMAN has done enough his first two runs back and is worth following now he’s out to a more suitable trip. He won 3 races before the break, including the Listed The Roy Higgins over 2,600m defeating SOULCOMBE by more than two lengths. Finding the lead is how he plays his best game and I didn’t envisage anything beating him to the rail here through the crucial and initial race stages.
FUTURE HISTORY is yet another northern hemisphere stayer imported to Australia in hope of landing a big cup. The former French galloper is lightly race with an excellent first/second strike rate from only fourteen career starts. He enjoyed a nice long break upon arrival to Australia and has won a race at Moonee Valley. The distance is some query but it’s more than likely to suit his high speed and bold front running style.
ALASKAN GOD won the WATC Derby as a 3YO over the 2,400m and has furnished into a nice stayer since. He arrives to this event fifth up from a spell and with two solid Victorian runs under his belt. Jamie Kah was aboard when finishing third in the most recent G3 MRC Foundation Cup at Caulfield and again takes the ride. A career high performance is required if he’s to go close, or win, but the rise in distance suggests it’s a possibility.
SELECTIONS: 16. MOSTLY CLOUDY, 7. ATHABASCAN, 2. GOLDMAN, 15. FUTURE HISTORY & 10. ALASKAN GOD
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 16. MOSTLY CLOUDY & 7. ATHABASCAN
S1-3: Multiple – 1. ROMANTIC WARRIOR & 7. OSIPENKO
S1-3 Turnbull Stakes
ROMANTIC WARRIOR is ready to commence his Australian campaign following a solid preparation both at home and abroad. Most of the ground work was completed in Hong Kong before takeoff but since his arrival to Werribee, 30km west of Melbourne, he’s ticked over nicely. A few initial days of acclimatisation were required following the long flight across but he’s now ready for the first of two Australian assignments. On ratings, the set weights and penalty structure of the G1 Turnbull Stakes are in his favour against most, but he’ll be better placed at weight for age in the coveted and main target, the G1 Cox Plate. The new surroundings, race surface and anticlockwise direction are all specifics he must pass if he’s to win, but with James McDonald aboard he’s in good hands.
OSIPENKO has enjoyed an extremely good campaign to this point with three quality performance at the highest level. His third place in the recent G1 Makybe Diva Stakes was as good as the winner, MR BRIGHTSIDE, on the clock, with the runner up, ALLIGATOR BLOOD, winning again recently at the highest level. With his best racing ahead following some exciting 3YO performances last campaign there’s plenty of optimism floating around to suggest he can just about win.
SOULCOMBE began his racing in the United Kingdom before transferring to Chris Waller from William Haggas in November 2022. He won his first Australian start in brilliant fashion over 2,600m at Flemington before a couple of average runs in Sydney at his next two events. A lengthy break was justified by a superb win at Caulfield first up, before covering ground and missing the start in the most recent G1 Underwood Stakes. He’s a high calibre thoroughbred with an exceptional turn of foot and shouldn’t be underestimated in any contest.
RIGHT YOU ARE progressed his way through a number of quality events last campaign and has returned this preparation in similar honest form. He must raise the bar to a whole new level if he’s to feature in a G1 finish, but his consistency and endeavour are remarkably unquestionable. The track and trip are likewise under no reasonable doubt but it’s the draw and class factor that he must overcome.
WEST WIND BLOWS arrives from England with a solid batch of racing in his legs. His runs at Royal Ascot in June, and Sandown in July, were against quality and proven group performers. How he’s settled in to the Australian Spring is yet to be confirmed, and tested, under high pressure conditions. Nevertheless, he’s accustomed to carrying big weights so the 125lbs allotted shouldn’t be a concern.
SELECTIONS: 1. ROMANTIC WARRIOR, 7. OSIPENKO, 11. SOULCOMBE, 15. RIGHT YOU ARE & 5. WEST WIND BLOWS
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 1. ROMANTIC WARRIOR & 7. OSIPENKO
S1-4: Multiple – 14. C’EST MAGIQUE & 2. STAR PATROL
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3:
Banker – 1. ROMANTIC WARRIOR
Selections – 7. OSIPENKO, 11. SOULCOMBE, 15. RIGHT YOU ARE & 5. WEST WIND BLOWS
S1-4:
Banker – 14. C’EST MAGIQUE
Selections – 2. STAR PATROL, 11. TRIPLE MISSILE, 1. JIGSAW & 10. ON THE LEAD
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 1. ROMANTIC WARRIOR, 7. OSIPENKO & 11. SOULCOMBE
S1-4: Multiple – 14. C’EST MAGIQUE, 2. STAR PATROL & 11. TRIPLE MISSILE
S1-5: Multiple – 5. TAMERLANE, 12. NICOLINI VITO & 9. UMGAWA
S1-4 Gilgai Stakes
C’EST MAGIQUE is a lightly raced but highly talented 4YO mare who is yet to reach her full potential and rates a very strong winning chance. With a month between runs from her first up fourth in the G3 W.W. Cockram Stakes, a strong form reference, she’s ideally situated to return a similar level of output. Her runner-up finishing position in last year’s G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes, over the Flemington 1,200m, was a career and outstanding performance that makes her the hardest animal to defeat.
STAR PATROL returned to racing with a strong performance first up in the G2 Bobbie Lewis Quality to get the money. He’s drawn ideally for today’s assignment, out wide on the track, and by all reports has thrived since his win. The 10lbs hike in the handicap, along with a potentially softer track, are challenges to overcome but he’s at his right track and distance.
TRIPLE MISSILE hasn’t had much racing over the last ten months therefore questions can be legitimately raised about race day fitness. Conversely, he copes with any surface condition, has an excellent fresh record and adores the Flemington straight track. I’d be watching the local markets closely.
JIGSAW was the winner of five from six starts last campaign and heads the ratings list in this G2 feature sprint. With an excellent first up record he’s impossible to overlook with any conviction. However, he shoulder’s the equal top weight from the low and unenviable draw and has never commenced a preparation of such a high mark.
ON THE LEAD is ready to peak following three barrier trials and two races back from a spell and can often go around easily dismissed. Damien Oliver thought enough of his latest effort at Caulfield to stay onboard and he’s previously placed at this level. It’s the type of race where value could appear in the frame, and he’s in that boat.
SELECTIONS: 14. C’EST MAGIQUE, 2. STAR PATROL, 11. TRIPLE MISSILE, 1. JIGSAW & 10. ON THE LEAD
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 14. C’EST MAGIQUE & 2. STAR PATROL
S1-5: Multiple – 5. TAMERLANE & 12. NICOLINI VITO
S1-5 World Pool Paris Lane Stakes
TAMERLANE was in need of the run first up in the G3 Bill Ritchie Handicap at Randwick but can quickly atone. He has the acceleration to lead this race and offset the wide draw whilst appreciating the lack of opposing speed. The distance reads ideal and he copes well with all conditions, so he’s a great hope of winning for the Godolphin blue.
NICOLINI VITO can appreciate the wider draw because he generally does best when given room to build closing speed. He’s also proven in the past that he needs racing, before ultimately finding the wins that he threatens to produce. The Hayes stable has been literally airborne in Australia this year so I’d be surprised if he doesn’t run well.
UMGAWA is a solid contributor almost every time he steps out to compete and for that reason must be considered. A good draw, plus jockey Harry Coffey with previous race experience are vital to his prospects, and he’s rock hard fit for a fight. Despite the fact he’s never won at listed level, he’s well placed, when considering his most recent and honest results.
NOT AN OPTION was in desperate need of his run first up at Caulfield in September following a long and lengthy winter spell. With the inside draw to leave from he‘ll position handy, and favourable nearer the rail, whilst conserving energy through the long sweeping turn to the home bend. The rise to 1,400m and a return to Flemington are both positive in his quest for victory so he can be given a chance.
MINSK MOMENT is former Sydney galloper who spent time in Western Australia before being transferred back to Chris Waller in Melbourne. It’s been sometime since he’s found his best form but if he improves second up then he’s capable of being in the finish. His run in the G2 Bobbie Lewis Quality was more than satisfactory first up and he’s renowned for finding lengths when he then heads back to the races.
SELECTIONS: 5. TAMERLANE, 12. NICOLINI VITO, 9. UMGAWA, 3. NOT AN OPTION & 6. MINSK MOMENT
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