 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for British Champions Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 British Champions Long Distance Cup
TRUESHAN looks the starting point here, having won the last three renewals of the G2 British Champions Long Distance Cup. Alan King’s 7YO wasn’t at his best earlier in the season, but he has looked a different horse in his last two starts following a wind operation. Wins in the G2 Doncaster Cup over 3,579m and most recently the G1 Prix Du Cadran over 4,000m at ParisLongchamp have shown he is back to something like his best. He relishes testing ground, so the rain that has fallen at Ascot will only add to his chances, and he should go close to making it four consecutive wins in this contest.
He does face a formidable rival in KYPRIOS, though, who comes here a fresh horse after only one run this season. KYPRIOS proved himself to be the new elite stayer last season, when winning all six of his starts, including four straight G1s over trips from 2,800m to 4,000m. An injury meant he has missed much of this season, only returning last month when finishing second in the G1 Irish St Leger over 2,800m. Aidan O’Brien’s runner can be forgiven that effort after such a long time off the track and he’s likely to come forward markedly from it. KYPRIOS won by 20 lengths in very testing conditions in last year’s Prix Du Cadran, so the ground at Ascot should be no disadvantage to him. On balance he holds stronger form than TRUESHAN and ranks the one to beat.
SWEET WILLIAM is an improving 4YO who showed he was up to this level when finishing second behind TRUESHAN in the G2 Doncaster Cup over 3,579m. He stuck to his task well there and should have no issue with conditions, having won on heavy ground in the past. After only eight starts, improvement is still likely but he will need to take a big step forward if he’s to trouble the big two.
COLTRANE won the G3 Sagaro Stakes over this course back in May and then the G2 Lonsdale Cup over 3,251m at York. Andrew Balding’s stayer finished a narrow second to TRUESHAN in this race last season, but he does look to be better on quicker ground and conditions will probably count against him.
Completing the shortlist is TRAWLERMAN, the mount of Frankie Dettori, who won a Listed race by 18 lengths at Newmarket over 3,200m last time. This is a step up in class and testing ground is a worry too.
SELECTIONS: 3. KYPRIOS, 7. TRUESHAN, 5. SWEET WILLIAM, 2. COLTRANE & 6. TRAWLERMAN
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-1: Multiple – 3. KYPRIOS & 7. TRUESHAN
S2-2: Multiple – 11. VADREAM & 2. KINROSS
S2-2 British Champions Sprint Stakes
A select field of classy sprinters lines up for the G1 British Champions Sprint Stakes.
The winner of this race last year, KINROSS, who will be ridden by Frankie Dettori, is likely to go well again here, having won two G2 races this season over 1,400m. He is rarely seen outside of the placings, goes on any ground, and likes the track at Ascot, so he should have strong winning claims.
Course and distance winner VADREAM has always performed her best on soft and heavy ground, including a win in the G3 Bengough Stakes over 1,200m at Ascot in 2021 on soft and the Listed Cammidge Trophy Stakes over 1,200m at Doncaster on heavy. With all the rain around, she will get the conditions she loves and also gets the mares’ allowance to help her.
ROHAAN steps back into graded company here having won a handicap at same course and distance last time out. With five wins from nine runs at Ascot, he does well at this track and can handle any ground. He placed in the G1 Sprint Cup over 1,200m at Haydock last year, but will have to step up again to win this. Ascot is his favourite track, however, and he should be in the mix.
SANDRINE finished third just a length behind KINROSS in the G2 City Of York Stakes over 1,400m in August and won her last start, the G2 Park Stakes over 1,405m on soft ground. She steps back down in trip here, having last won over 1,200m as a 2YO, but has run well all season and could have a chance back on this softer ground.
MILL STREAM has improved markedly this season, having won the G3 Prix de Meautry over 1,200m and running well for sixth place in the G1 Sprint Cup Stakes over 1,200m last time out at Haydock. Conditions don’t seem to worry him. He runs at Ascot for the first time, but should like the track and is another with a chance in what looks a pretty open contest.
SELECTIONS: 11. VADREAM, 2. KINROSS, 3. ROHAAN, 9. SANDRINE & 7. MILL STREAM
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-2: Multiple – 11. VADREAM & 2. KINROSS
S2-3: Multiple – 11. RUE BOISSONADE & 9. JACKIE OH
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2:
Banker – 11. VADREAM
Selections – 2. KINROSS, 3. ROHAAN, 9. SANDRINE & 7. MILL STREAM
S2-3:
Banker – 11. RUE BOISSONADE
Selections – 9. JACKIE OH, 8. BLUESTOCKING, 6. TERM OF ENDEARMENT & 7. TIME LOCK
S2-3 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes
Since this British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes was upgraded to G1 status 10 years ago, only two horses older than three have been victorious. And though we won’t see any Classic-winning fillies lining up in this year’s renewal, it’s still the 3YOs – particularly those with form on testing ground - that make most appeal over their older rivals.
French raider RUE BOISSONADE has to enter calculations given her win on heavy ground over 2,400m at ParisLongchamp on her reappearance in April, and she looks like a thorough stayer having run on well to finish fourth in the G1 2,800m Prix de Royallieu at ParisLongchamp last time.
3YO CAMELOT filly BLUESTOCKING has run with plenty of credit in G1 company this season without getting her head in front, while her trainer Ralph Beckett is enjoying his most prolific campaign on record. She was a clear second in the G1 Irish Oaks over 2,400m on soft ground, and then a creditable fourth in the G1 Yorkshire Oaks over 2,371m on ground that would have been on the quick side for her. Though only a Listed contest, she was denied by just a neck in the 2,457m Stand Cup Stakes at Chester last time out, while the winner has gone on to land a G3. With a few key players missing, BLUESTOCKING has a good opportunity to land that elusive G1.
Of the other 3YOs, it’s hard to leave out JACKIE OH after her second in the 2,000m G1 Prix de l'Opera last time out. She’s proven on testing ground, having won her maiden on heavy going, as well as a soft-ground G3 1,800m Rathbride Stakes, and the only query with her is the step up to 2,400m.
4YOs TIME LOCK and TERM OF ENDEARMENT will have to give weight away to their juniors, but both come into this off the back of good wins and should be on the shortlist. They both handle cut in the ground, particularly TERM OF ENDEARMENT who was a runaway winner in testing conditions in the 2,400m G3 Give Thanks Stakes at Cork last time out. She steps into G1 company for the first time and has plenty to find on ratings, but looks a very sound stayer who will relish conditions.
TIME LOCK showed glimpses of G1 quality when landing the 2,400m G3 Princess Royal Stakes in fine style last time. She looks to be peaking at just the right time and is a danger if handling the likely heavy ground.
SELECTIONS: 11. RUE BOISSONADE, 9. JACKIE OH, 8. BLUESTOCKING, 6. TERM OF ENDEARMENT & 7. TIME LOCK
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-3: Multiple – 11. RUE BOISSONADE & 9. JACKIE OH
S2-4: Multiple – 4. BIG ROCK & 9. PADDINGTON
S2-4 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
This year’s G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes looks a cracker, with some really high-class horses lining up.
Aidan O’Brien has won the race four times, and he saddles PADDINGTON who bids to cap off a memorable season that has seen him win six times, four of which have come at G1 level. He also won a Naas handicap and a Listed contest at the Curragh prior to that, so it’s been a superb campaign. His only defeat came last time in the G1 International Stakes over 2,051m at York, where he might have been feeling the effects of a long season. That has to be a concern here, but he’s had plenty of time to get over the run and is a leading contender.
Another 3YO, TAHIYRA, is high up the shortlist. Dermot Weld’s filly has won five of her six career starts, with the only defeat being a close second in the G1 1000 Guineas over 1,600m at Newmarket earlier this season. She’s won three times since – G1s at the Curragh, Ascot and Leopardstown – and she is likely to go close. Connections have been apprehensive about running her on very soft ground, though, so the likely heavy going is a bit of a concern.
Conditions certainly won’t worry connections of BIG ROCK. Arguably the best performance of Christopher Head’s contender’s career came in the G3 Prix de Guiche over 1,800m at Chantilly earlier this year where he bolted up by five lengths on heavy ground. He’s run really well in G1 company recently finishing second in both the Prix Jacques le Marois and Prix du Moulin de Longchamp and could give both PADDINGTON and TAHIYRA plenty to think about.
NASHWA needs a mention as she rarely runs a bad race. In fact, she’s only finished outside the first three twice in 14 career starts. She’s enjoyed another good campaign, with the highlight being a victory in the G1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket (July Course). The daughter of FRANKEL was a big eye-catcher in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes last time, and another solid run can be expected here.
Another French raider, FACTEUR CHEVAL, can complete the placings. He goes well on soft ground and has run very solid races in G1 company, notably in the G1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood earlier this year.
SELECTIONS: 4. BIG ROCK, 9. PADDINGTON, 11. TAHIYRA, 8. NASHWA & 3. FACTEUR CHEVAL
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-4: Multiple – 4. BIG ROCK & 9. PADDINGTON
S2-5: Multiple – 7. HORIZON DORE & 9. ROYAL RHYME
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-4:
Banker – 4. BIG ROCK
Selections – 9. PADDINGTON, 11. TAHIYRA, 8. NASHWA & 3. FACTEUR CHEVAL
S2-5:
Banker – 7. HORIZON DORE
Selections – 9. ROYAL RHYME, 1. BAY BRIDGE, 8. KING OF STEEL & 6. VIA SISTINA
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-4: Multiple – 4. BIG ROCK, 9. PADDINGTON & 11. TAHIYRA
S2-5: Multiple – 7. HORIZON DORE, 9. ROYAL RHYME & 1. BAY BRIDGE
S2-6: Multiple – 1. MIGRATION, 6. AWAAL & 5. AL MUBHIR
S2-5 Champion Stakes
It’s hard to dismiss the claims of HORIZON DORE in the Champion Stakes. Patrice Cottier’s 3YO gelding has won his last four races impressively and looks ready for a tilt at this prize. He was impressive last time in the G2 Prix Dollar over 1,950m and given he was victorious at Salon-de-Provence on heavy ground on debut by five lengths, he’ll have no issues if the ground gets very testing.
ROYAL RHYME might be the one to follow him home. He cruised home to take a Newmarket handicap over 2,000m earlier this year and was even more impressive when winning a similar contest at Goodwood over 1,979m two starts later. Both of those came on soft ground, so he’ll have no issues if the ground gets really bad, and the son of LOPE DE VEGA comes into this in good form having won the Listed Doonside Cup Stakes over 2,000m last time.
Last year’s winner, BAY BRIDGE, has to be considered again. He hadn’t been in quite the same form as that victory 12 months ago this season, though he was an easy winner of the G3 September Stakes on Kempton’s polytrack on his penultimate start. Sir Michael Stoute’s contender ran a fine race when sixth in the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe over 2,400m last time, and we know he goes well at Ascot.
KING OF STEEL will be partnered by Frankie Dettori. His mount certainly isn’t without a chance either. KING OF STEEL finished second in the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,405m on just the third start of his career and has held his form well since. He was a very good winner of the G2 King Edward VII Stakes over 2,392m at Royal Ascot and has run good races at the same track in the G1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2,392m and then in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown over 2,000m. The son of WOOTTON BASSETT was left plenty to do at Leopardstown and a more positive ride could see him get closer.
The ground has come right for VIA SISTINA. George Boughey’s 5YO mare loves soft ground as shown by her six-length win of the G2 Dahlia Stakes over 1,800m earlier this season. She was only just touched off in the G1 Prix Jean Romanet over 2,000m last time, and she’s not without a chance.
SELECTIONS: 7. HORIZON DORE, 9. ROYAL RHYME, 1. BAY BRIDGE, 8. KING OF STEEL & 6. VIA SISTINA
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 7. HORIZON DORE & 9. ROYAL RHYME
S2-6: Multiple – 1. MIGRATION & 6. AWAAL
S2-6 Balmoral Handicap
The Lincoln Handicap on the opening day of the season is the key to the Balmoral Handicap that closes British Champions Day. The 1,600m Doncaster contest was run on heavy ground and conditions are likely to be similar on Ascot’s straight course for its closing Flat card of the year.
MIGRATION thrives on testing ground. He swooped late with a storming run from the rear to collar AWAAL in the closing stages of the Lincoln with AL MUBHIR back in fifth. The winner has only been seen once on the track since when fifth behind 2021 Derby winner ADAYAR in the G3 Gordon Richards Stakes over 2,000m in May. Trainer David Menuisier seems to have lined up MIGRATION for this race having missed the faster ground earlier in the season.
The weights give AWAAL a chance of reversing Lincoln form with MIGRATION. He also showed his liking for Ascot, and his ability to cope with big-field races, when third in the Royal Hunt Cup over 1,600m in June. The cheekpieces he wore for the first time seemed to light him up too much in the Golden Mile over 1,600m at Goodwood. He was much better when third in the Listed Guisborough Stakes over 1,400m at Redcar on quicker ground than ideal two weeks ago. The return to 1,600m on heavy ground suits him.
AL MUBHIR was a bit too fresh when fifth in the Lincoln. He went on to thrash subsequent Ayr Silver Cup winner WOBWOBWOB over 1,600m at Leicester on his next start and has mostly run in Listed races since.
Irish raider COEUR D’OR has been in great form this year. He’s won three competitive handicaps in his last five starts and didn’t seem suited by the return to 2,000m on his most recent run. There’s every chance he could hold his own in Group races and that is backed up by his pedigree.
VETIVER is an improving 3YO with a liking for soft ground. She did well to overcome trouble to land a 1,377m Listed race at Carlisle in June. Her only run since came when third behind the smart MATILDA PICOTTE in the G3 Sceptre Fillies' Stakes over 1,405m at Doncaster last month. That’s good form and she shapes like the return to 1,600m will be in her favour.
SELECTIONS: 1. MIGRATION, 6. AWAAL, 5. AL MUBHIR, 11. COEUR D’OR & 19. VETIVER
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