 Expert - Brett Davis | |
|---|---|
| Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts. | |
Expert Column for Cox Plate Day (S1) (Brett Davis)
S1-1 Inglis Banner
BOLD BASTILLE by BRAZEN BEAU who had plenty of support early in betting when the markets opened for this event. She’s been forward in both her jump outs over the 800m and found the line comfortably in second position at her most recent in a time of 46.13. Race pressure shall sort these youngsters out, at the end of the day, but it’s predicated she’ll be right in the finish.
IMMORTAL STAR draws wide but shall at least be given plenty of initial room to hopefully find a good rhythm. She’s unbeaten in two jump outs at Flemington and in the latest heat defeated fellow candidate BOLD BASTILLE. She’s a free running type with plenty of size and scope, who’s destined to race on speed, and may take catching.
CHOSEN LEGEND has the advantage of an official barrier trial to lean on with Zac Purton now picking up the ride. Jamie Kah was aboard in the 800m trial win at Cranbourne where she got a satisfactory taste for the racing game. Drawn low, she’s expected to push up and hold a position early before attacking the line with power.
BLUE ALLURE is another 2YO filly from the powerful Hayes stable that is owned and raced by only women. The daughter of BLUE POINT has Damien Oliver to ride and is drawn favourably nearer the inside running rail. Her two jump outs at Flemington have also viewed well, and she was able to win the most recent of them in a time of 48.64.
BLUE STRATUM is trained by the astute Tony & Calvin McEvoy yard, and they rarely make mistakes when it comes to placing young horses appropriately. This colt won his second, of two jump outs, at Terang in slick time and with plenty in hand. He was initially an emergency for this race but with a start he must be considered a genuine winning prospect.
SELECTIONS: 8. BOLD BASTILLE, 13. IMMORTAL STAR, 9. CHOSEN LEGEND & 7. BLUE ALLURE
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 8. BOLD BASTILLE & 13. IMMORTAL STAR
S1-2: Multiple – 2. WISHLOR LASS & 1. THALASSOPHILE
S1-2 Tesio Stakes
WISHLOR LASS makes her Moonee Valley debut after back-to-back wins at her previous two starts. Her overall record reads five wins from seven starts so she must be highly respected considering her achievements and envious tally to this point. She’s tactically versatile with a good turn of foot although her best results to date have been when racing on speed.
THALASSOPHILE generally prefers cut in the track to produce her best but that wasn’t the case in the G3 Angst Stakes when second up from a spell. She has the benefit of race experience at Moonee Valley over many of her opponents. She continues building nicely towards another race win and it’s difficult to underestimate this stable.
SOUL CHOICE is emerging as a real talent and lightly raced filly that has plenty of upside and races to win. She was superb first up when racing on speed and kicked away solidly through final stages to score. She’ll be better for the run in the G3 Angst Stakes at Randwick where gate one ended up a disadvantage. She’s nicely poised to tackle a fairly tough race and a definite win place chance.
EN FRANCAIS is a big bodied mare from the stable of Jake Stephens who previously took ALCOPOP to Hong Kong for the G1 Hong Kong Cup in 2012. She gained experience at Moonee Valley last campaign in the G2 Sunline Stakes but finished down the track. She’s an improved racehorse this time around and must be strongly considered.
OSMOSE finished twelfth first up at Randwick in the G3 Angst Stakes after initially settling back at the rear. The run was actually better than it reads on paper so I’m happy enough to give her some leeway on that performance. She’ll be much better for the outing and the stable is running hot so she’s a capable runner to consider.
SELECTIONS: 2. WISHLOR LASS, 1. THALASSOPHILE, 5. SOUL CHOICE, 4. EN FRANCAIS & 3. OSMOSE
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 2. WISHLOR LASS & 1. THALASSOPHILE
S1-3: Multiple – 3. INHIBITIONS & 4. CIGAR FLICK
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 2. WISHLOR LASS
Selections – 1. THALASSOPHILE, 5. SOUL CHOICE, 4. EN FRANCAIS & 3. OSMOSE
S1-3:
Banker – 3. INHIBITIONS
Selections – 4. CIGAR FLICK, 12. FLOOZIE, 14. GUMDROPS & 11. PARADISE CITY
S1-3 William Crockett Stakes
INHIBITIONS has plenty of race experience for a young 3YO filly and importantly applied her trade well around this particular track. With three of her past performances over this course and trip she’ll feel right at home, where other perhaps won’t. In her recent fifth placing at Caulfield she was crunched out the gates however prior her form was excellent in quality events.
CIGAR FLICK lines up for this race following an encouraging fourth place in the G2 Danehill Stakes. That particular race at Flemington is likely to end up a strong form reference going forward so she therefore rates highly. She’s owned by the famous Ingham family who also race FANGIRL in the feature event the G1 Cox Plate on the same day. The wide draw appears awkward but she’s expected to be in the finish.
FLOOZIE has displayed talent from day one and broke her maiden status recently over 1,200m at Mornington. Champion jockey Damien Oliver now takes the reins and with retirement looming, for the Australian legend, he’ll be out to make every ride count. The way she drew clear over the final 200m suggests she’s fully aware of what racing is all about, so it shall be onwards and upwards from here.
GUMDROPS started favourite at Ballarat recently when she jumped straight to the front before leading all the way. Damian Lane was aboard the daughter of WRITTEN TYCOON for her maiden win and maintains his position in the saddle. She didn’t defeat an overly strong field on that occasion, so a sizeable challenge lays ahead, but she’s in a reputable stable and drawn to do no work.
PARADISE CITY arrives unbeaten after two outings in provincial class where she raced handy before kicking away to win. The outside draw won’t make things easy for her initially, as she searches for position, but Beau Mertens knows her well which is going to assist. This stable has an uncanny knack of winning the big races so I’d pay her some respect on what she’s achieved.
SELECTIONS: 3. INHIBITIONS, 4. CIGAR FLICK, 12. FLOOZIE, 14. GUMDROPS & 11. PARADISE CITY
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 3. INHIBITIONS & 4. CIGAR FLICK
S1-4: Multiple – 4. ANTINO & 1. TUVALU
S1-4 Crystal Mile
ANTINO was touted by trainer Tony Gollan as a proper G1 horse at the commencement of this campaign, and he was almost proven correct in the G1 Toorak Handicap. After drawing a wide gate, he was forced to do plenty of work during the run before looming up to win at the 100m marker. A nail bitting finish went the way of the opposition in the end, but he lost no admirers in defeat. He debuts at Moonee Valley which shouldn't be of concern and is desperately hard to tip against.
TUVALU tops the ratings list for this intriguing weight for age contest and if previous finishing orders are anything to go by then it’s his race to lose. Last year’s G1 Toorak Handicap winner didn’t fire in the Autumn but has since returned to his old self this campaign. A gut busting chase behind ALLIGATOR BLOOD in the G1 Underwood Stakes was admirable and he’ll take a power of beating here at Moonee Valley.
PROWESS emerged as a genuine super star last campaign with a memorable victory in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes at Rosehill. This highly exciting New Zealand mare returns to Australia following a narrow first up defeat over an insufficient 1,400m. It’s her first look at the Moonee Valley circuit, but she’s a high-class machine who shouldn’t be taken on lightly.
BANKERS CHOICE hasn’t won a race for quite a long time so he’s a difficult horse to recommend for the win. However, he was definitely in need of a long and lengthy winter spell which he no doubt enjoyed before returning to racing in September. His effort second up in the G1 Toorak Handicap, where he got a long way back, was utterly enormous so he’s obviously feeling quite well within himself.
SELECTIONS: 4. ANTINO, 1. TUVALU, 6. PROWESS & 2. BANKERS CHOICE
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 4. ANTINO & 1. TUVALU
S1-5: Multiple – 2. APRILIA & 10. BROADCASTER
S1-5 Fillies Classic
APRILIA has her hoof firmly on the till following three runs back from a spell and on ratings is the horse to beat. Nevertheless, the scope of this classic G2 event for the young ladies is overwhelming full of volatility and depth. The former Kiwi is already placed at G1 level in her initial racing life, and I’d expect her to race handy to the speed. With that being the case, she’ll create herself a legitimate winning chance.
BROADCASTER arrives in Melbourne winless following an initial four career start and Sydney campaign. She hasn’t been beaten far in any contest and was exceptionally courageous in the Listed Reginald Allen Quality when caught out wide all of the way. If she copes with the travel and reverse way of running, she’s in the finish for sure.
SKYBIRD heads to the city stage following two dominant wins on the Victorian provincial circuit. The filly by EXOSPHERE possesses a lethal and explosive turn of foot which has caught the eye of many good judges leading into this race. The early markets are suggesting she might be some sort of a star so be weary in leaving her out.
CARINA QUEEN has drawn nicely for her debut at G2 level and rates a viable option in an even event. Michael Dee steered her home for an encouraging win at Sandown last outing and she’s bred to handle the distance rise. A lift is required if she’s to make the grade but it’s hard to oppose her to this point.
NODACHI has struggled to find the line well enough her past couple to suggest she can trouble the favourites but remains open to further improvement. She’s giving the impression that 1,600m, and perhaps beyond, is what’s she’s craving and she’ll arrive ready to peak. A spot in the first five is her likely travelling position and she’ll run you an honest race.
SELECTIONS: 2. APRILIA, 10. BROADCASTER, 8. SKYBIRD, 3. CARINA QUEEN & 6. NODACHI
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 2. APRILIA & 10. BROADCASTER
S1-6: Multiple – 4. APULIA & 2. AIR ASSAULT
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 2. APRILIA
Selections – 10. BROADCASTER, 8. SKYBIRD, 3. CARINA QUEEN & 6. NODACHI
S1-6:
Banker – 4. APULIA
Selections – 2. AIR ASSAULT, 3. VERDAD & 7. KONING
S1-6 Moonee Valley Vase
APULIA arrives with a solid foundation of racing and residual fitness under the saddle to give this event a shake. He found the line superbly in the reliant lead up, the G3 Caulfield Classic, and has previous race day experience at this track. With the famous Hayes touch doing the final preparations I’d expect him to raise the bar and be a solid winning chance.
AIR ASSAULT makes the trip to Melbourne from South Australia with a pair wins to his name. The son of American Sire JUSTIFY has displayed a high level of ability when finding the lead in rhythm before dashing right away. It’s a decent hike in class, and the challenges associated with travel await, but he’s progressing fabulously and should run a mighty race.
VERDAD was brilliant in the G2 Stutt Stakes here at Moonee Valley behind subsequent G1 Caulfield Guineas winner GRIFF and reads as the likely favourite. The wide barrier caused him plenty of pain in the aforementioned G1 Caulfield Guineas but he remained honest in his endeavour and approach. A good draw here is vital to his prospects and the rise in journey appears ideal.
KONING takes a huge leap in class to contest this quality G2 event but with Zac Purton behind the wheel you’ll be receiving a decent ride. The win at Newcastle was a low calibre affair, but won with class in hand, and he appreciated the races longer trip. The stable is in form and there’ll be no drama running the 2,040m so included him in all the exotics.
SELECTIONS: 4. APULIA, 2. AIR ASSAULT, 3. VERDAD & 7. KONING
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 4. APULIA & 2. AIR ASSAULT
S1-7: Multiple – 6. IMPERATRIZ & 7. I AM ME
S1-7 Manikato Stakes
IMPERATRIZ is the highest rated runner by quite a margin and for that reason stands between victory and defeat for all other competitors. With six G1 wins from ten attempts, plus, an unbeaten record at Moonee Valley from three runs she’s the unrivalled super star of this field. This overpowering 5YO mare has tasted defeated only once in 2023, and that’s unlikely to change on what we’ve witnessed from her during this campaign.
I AM ME announced herself as a potential top liner last preparation when she accumulated seven wins from ten starts. She returned to racing in August, following two effortless trial victories, to merely scorch across the grass for victory in the G2 Missile Stakes. That performance has since been franked by a fantastic on speed win in the G3 Sydney Stakes. She’ll likely be suited by the tightness of this track and rates a serious contender.
UNCOMMON JAMES is a highly progressive sprinter who’s only missed a top three finish on one occasion. He returned this preparation with a hard chasing third behind IMPERATRIZ in the 1,000m G1 Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley. Another terrific effort in the 1,100m G2 Schillaci Stakes last start has topped him off superbly for this assignment and a forward position in the run almost assures him of a top three finish.
THE INFERNO was a Lion City Cup winner in Singapore before relocating to Australia where he’s struggled to win races on a regular basis. That being said, he does enjoy a strong affiliation with the Moonee Valley circuit and thrives in events run over 1,200m. The good track conditions anticipated and likely frantic first half are elements of a race he desires, so don’t be surprised if he finds himself in the frame.
SELECTIONS: 6. IMPERATRIZ, 7. I AM ME, 3. UNCOMMON JAMES & 1. THE INFERNO
7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 6. IMPERATRIZ & 7. I AM ME
S1-8: Multiple – 1. ROMANTIC WARRIOR & 4. ALLIGATOR BLOOD
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 6. IMPERATRIZ, 7. I AM ME & 3. UNCOMMON JAMES
S1-8: Multiple – 1. ROMANTIC WARRIOR, 4. ALLIGATOR BLOOD & 2. ZAAKI
S1-9: Multiple – 2. MAHARBA, 1. BARBER & 3. ARCHO NACHO
S1-8 Cox Plate
ROMANTIC WARRIOR is ready to contest his second and primary Australian target following a solid preparation both at home and abroad. Most of the groundwork was completed in Hong Kong but following his arrival, and hearty fourth place in the G1 Turnbull Stakes, his condition has gone ahead in leaps and bounds. James McDonald reported he was desperately in need of the first up run but thrilled by the progress made following his final gallop on Tuesday morning. Trainer Danny Shum is feeling no pressure and reported he is also happy with his champion’s improvement, quoting him at approximately 90-95% fit. The new surroundings, race surface and anticlockwise direction are all specifics ticked off during the past weeks, so with barrier 7 producing numerous winners of this event, it’s off to work he goes.
ALLIGATOR BLOOD has been at his scintillating best this campaign with back-to-back wins in the G1 Underwood Stakes and the G1 Might And Power respectively. He finished fifth in this race last year after leading the field to the home bend before exhaustion took its tool down to the wire. The high-pressure nature of this classic event, particularly from the 800m to the winning post, goes against his desired and preferred pattern of dictatorship, however, he’s clearly at the peak of his game. The barrier draw allows him to lead or alternatively take a sit behind those carving across and from there he’ll give the race a decent shake.
ZAAKI was one of the Kings of Australian racing a few seasons back and the ageing four time G1 winner shouldn’t be overlooked or completely left out. He was a little slow leaving the gates in the recent 7 Stakes at Randwick before finding the lead with 200m to run. He was only cut down in the final strides of that event and shall be peaking in fitness following a strong piece of work at Moonee Valley Tuesday morning. He’s jumping out of his skin by all reports and the wide draw mightn't be as awkward as reads on paper.
GOLD TRIP finished ninth in the G1 Cox Plate last year, on a heavy track, before going on to win Australia’s greatest 3,200m event the G1 Melbourne Cup. He returned this campaign with a strong effort first up at Moonee Valley, carrying 137lbs, before an electrifying and jaw dropping last to first win in the G1 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington. The return back to 2,040m following another fantastic effort in the G1 Caulfield Cup last weekend can obviously create some doubt, but he’s bordering on “Champion Status” the way he’s going, and the blinkers are back on. The change of track conditions this year and return back to weight for age can swing things around.
FANGIRL has really come of age over the last 12 months and must be considered in any race she contests. The 2,040m of the G1 Cox Plate maybe slightly against her, being a distance untried, but her incredible class and finishing power suggest it’s a contest worthy of an attempt. She’s also yet to race at Moonee Valley, which is an additional hurdle to jump, however with Zac Purton aboard she’ll be given every possible chance to grind into the finish.
SELECTIONS: 1. ROMANTIC WARRIOR, 4. ALLIGATOR BLOOD, 2. ZAAKI, 5. GOLD TRIP & 8. FANGIRL
8TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-8: Multiple – 1. ROMANTIC WARRIOR & 4. ALLIGATOR BLOOD
S1-9: Multiple – 2. MAHARBA & 1. BARBER
S1-9 Red Anchor Stakes
MAHARBA should appreciate the predicted high speed from the outset here and run over the top in the end. The 3YO son of PRIDE OF DUBAI displayed exceptional talent earlier in the year when finishing second behind SHINZO, who shortly after went on to win the G1 Golden Slipper. A last start win at the track and trip for jockey Michael Dee reads ideal and he should be difficult to deny.
BARBER is another get back runner that’ll appreciate the high race speed. The Godolphin runner has been out of form in his two runs back this term, but the blinkers are now being applied. He’s worked in that head gear quite nicely leading up and if he brings that focus to race day he can win.
ARCHO NACHO defeated the exciting I AM UNSTOPPABLE at Flemington two starts back couldn’t frank the form. However, he raced keenly at his following attempt and is therefore worthy of another opportunity to impress. The Moonee Valley track is a circuit that’s predicted to suit his gate and style and I’d therefore want him in the tips.
SCHWARZ scored in two trials before he went to Gosford and won when dictating the race in front. That 1,200m win gives him added fitness over a number of the opposition here and from the inside gate he’s ideally drawn. James McDonald now takes over the reins from Tommy Berry and he’s expected to be in this for a long way.
SELECTIONS: 2. MAHARBA, 1. BARBER, 3. ARCHO NACHO & 10. SCHWARZ
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
