 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
|---|---|
| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Tenno Sho Autumn (S2-1) (Naohiro Goda)
S2-1 Tenno Sho Autumn
Long-awaited racecourse reappearance of EQUINOX is seen at Tokyo Racecourse on 29th October.
The 4YO colt is the winner of this race twelve months ago. Being the first crop of KITASAN BLACK, who awarded JRA Horse of the Year twice, he was also given this prestigious honour in 2022. Christophe Lemaire’s darling won the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan in March, defeating WESTOVER, ZAGREY and MOSTAHDAF, all of which managed to win in G1 level subsequently in 2023. After his ultra impressive performance in Dubai, EQUINOX earned a rating of 129 and is still the leader in World Thoroughbred Racehorse Ranking. The Japanese star had easy time at Tenei Branch of Northern Farm for two months after winning the G1 Takarazuka Kinen on 25th June and returned at the barn of Tetsuya Kimura at Miho on 28th September. He was breezed for 1,200m at woodchip course on 4th, 11th and 18th October. He clocked 78.9 seconds for 1,200m on 18th, which was the quickest time at the course on the day, with Christophe Lemaire was in the irons. I am sure EQUINOX is ready to run his race on coming Sunday.
A horse who is rising like a sky rocket in the field is PROGNOSIS. After he collected his first group race winner in the G2 Kinko Sho in March at Chukyo, the 5YO horse by DEEP IMPACT travelled to Hong Kong where he finished second to ROMANTIC WARRIOR in the G1 FWD QEII Cup, defeating DUBAI HONOUR, dual G1 winner at Sydney. We were convinced he was such a talented runner at Sha Tin on 30th April and it was confirmed again at Sapporo on 20th August, when he won the G2 Sapporo Kinen by four lengths. I am sure PROGNOSIS is the second best horse in the field.
My third choice is DANON BELUGA, who finished second in the G1 Dubai Turf in March and fourth in the G2 Sapporo Kinen last time out. Tokyo is his favourite racecourse, where he won the G3 Kyodo News Hai and finished third in the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn in 2022. As long as he re-produces those form on Sunday, I believe he has a good chance to finish within first three.
Although EQUINOX made all in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic in March, he is usually settled at middle or rear of field and delivers strong challenge on homestretch. If he uses his usual running tactics in Tenno Sho Autumn, JACK D’OR is only runner with speed in the field and it is likely that he is able to run his race in front. JACK D’OR is my fourth choice.
The most difficult horse to assess in this field is DO DEUCE. While he won the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) in 2022, defeating EQUINOX, this is first start for him since winning the G2 Kyoto Kinen in February, and I am suspicious about his physical condition.
SELECTIONS: 7. EQUINOX, 9. PROGNOSIS, 4. DANON BELUGA, 10. JACK D’OR & 3. DO DEUCE
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