Expert - Brett Davis

Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts.

Expert Column for Victoria Derby Day (S1) (Brett Davis)

 

S1-1     Carbine Club Stakes

 

BRAVE MEAD shall be forced to carry a small weight penalty following a last start win at Caulfield but that won’t be what gets him beat. He is a big strong boy with plenty of further scope and the sizeable Flemington track can further assist his manoeuvrability. He’ll race in the colours recently made famous by GOLD TRIP and is a genuine player in this deep contest.

 

HEMAN arrives at Flemington following a much improved effort second up in the Tapp-Craig stakes at Rosehill over 1,400m. He’s a slow developing type who’s about to click mentally and shall definitely appreciate the additional ground here over 1,600m. He must raise his output to a higher level if he’s going to win and a number of reputable judges are predicting he can.

 

KAIZAD was rock solid in his first Melbourne appearance at Caulfield and is expected to race right up on speed. The rise in class and distance is always a challenge to overcome but the word from the stable is he’s a serious horse. He’ll be pressured early by a couple that roll forward from wider out but remains a legitimate chance of leading throughout.

 

INFLUENTIAL arrives at Flemington following an impressive maiden win at Kembla Grange. He’s a good-looking son of THE AUTUMN SUN and is owned by multiple big players in the Australian racing industry. Interesting, James McDonald did plenty of his initial groundwork and is back aboard for his fourth ride.

 

ERSA won her maiden at Ballarat over the 1,600m by an astounding nine lengths in early October before a narrow defeat in a strong race at Caulfield last start. She’s draw perfectly in gate one and if she doesn’t lead, she’ll position handy behind the speed saving ground. With the fitness benefit of winning a race over this particular distance she‘s considered a winning prospect.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. BRAVE MEAD, 2. HEMAN, 3. KAIZAD, 5. INFLUENTIAL & 7. ERSA

 

1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 1. BRAVE MEAD & 2. HEMAN
S1-2: Multiple – 4. MOSTLY CLOUDY & 2. KALAPOUR

 

S1-2     Lexus Archer Stakes (Hotham Handicap)

 

MOSTLY CLOUDY arrived in Australia this time last year and has been aimed at the 2023 G1 Melbourne Cup. He’s hasn’t quite reach the heights that connections would’ve hoped, to this point, but at the same time isn’t faraway. He notched up his first Australian win two starts back with a dazzling final 200m to win running away, before traffic stopped him in the G3 The Bart Cummings Handicap over 2,520m. He’s well weighted plus rock hard fit and I expect him to be right around the mark.

 

KALAPOUR is G1 placed and drawn superbly for legendary Australian rider Damien Oliver and the pair have meet each other before. He’s been up a while, so the required miles in his legs are there, therefore no excuses are seemingly apparent. With a small field going around it’s likely tactics play apart, which suits him perfectly because he’ll be settled close to the speed and near the inside rail.

 

ATHABASCAN was imported to Australia from France a year ago but took a longtime to settle into his new home. Trainer John O’Shea has persisted with a long, but well-spaced, continual campaign and it’s having the desired effect. He recently ran himself back into form by winning a listed and G3 2,400m event in Sydney, before an honest effort over the 2,500m last start.

 

LADIES MAN arrives to Australia with a G1 win under his belt in the Livamol Classic at Hastings in New Zealand. The Kiwi raiders are taking Australia by storm, yet again this spring, and whatever they send must be respected. He’s affective on all types of ground and capable of running 3,200m with all seven wins in the anticlockwise direction.

 

UNITED NATIONS ran a terrific race in the G2 Herbert Power Stakes before struggling with the depth of the G1 Caulfield Cup. We are yet to see the best of the former Aiden O’Brien trained Irish galloper, so the easier contest today is a plus. He likes to race handy, and it’s anticipated he’ll lead, so he gets his chance to shine.

 

SELECTIONS: 4. MOSTLY CLOUDY, 2. KALAPOUR, 3. ATHABASCAN, 1. LADIES MAN & 5. UNITED NATIONS

 

2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 4. MOSTLY CLOUDY & 2. KALAPOUR
S1-3: Multiple – 6. ROSE QUARTZ & 5. LEMPICKA

 

S1-3     Furphy Sprint (Begonia Belle Stakes)

 

ROSE QUARTZ is a quality mare with a formidable record at Flemington and she adores the good to firm tracks. She chased home the highly progressive SHE DANCES at Caulfield last outing after bubbling over mentally before the jump. She’s fitter for two runs back this campaign and is extremely honest whenever she runs. A definitely inclusion for exotics.

 

LEMPICKA has gone bang, bang, bang at her three previous starts and now eyes off a fourth consecutive win. We’ll find out how good she is today, with the incredible depth on show in this race, but she’s absolutely flying to say the least. She’s a get back runner with a massive turn of speed and the long Flemington straight is what she’ll want. Class is the only box she needs to tick but whatever the finishing order I’d be surprised if she didn’t run well.

 

QUEEN OF THE BALL had some excuses at Rosehill in the G3 The Nivision and the effort was better than it appears. She’s already a multiple G3 winner and has run well recently against some genuine G1 horses, and she’s about ready to peak. There’s plenty of early pace expected and she’s drawn superbly near the outside rail on the straight track.

 

GHAANATI won her first start as a 2YO over this course and distance, so she’ll feel right at home in this contest. She’s since travelled to Brisbane and Sydney but in the process lost her spark. It’s a deep and challenging race for her to win, and probably beyond her at this point, but she could hit the line at a price and add value to exotics.

 

HYPOTHETICAL has made a solid return to racing this campaign and should be just about spot on for her fourth run back. There’s a stack of speed in this event, which is exactly where she likes to race, so there’ll be a decent amount of pressure for her to absorb. Her record over the 1,100m is excellent, and a good solid surface suits her best, so expect her to run a big bold race.

 

SELECTIONS: 6. ROSE QUARTZ, 5. LEMPICKA, 2. QUEEN OF THE BALL, 11. GHAANATI & 8. HYPOTHETICAL

 

3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 6. ROSE QUARTZ & 5. LEMPICKA
S1-4: Multiple – 7. SPACEWALK & 4. IT’SOURTIME

 

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3:   
Banker – 6. ROSE QUARTZ
Selections – 5. LEMPICKA, 2. QUEEN OF THE BALL, 11. GHAANATI & 8. HYPOTHETICAL
S1-4:   
Banker – 7. SPACEWALK
Selections – 4. IT’SOURTIME, 9. C’EST MAGIQUE, 5. TRIPLE MISSILE & 2. CHAIN OF LIGHTNING

 

S1-4     Rising Fast Stakes (Chatham Stakes)

 

SPACEWALK brought listed winning Sydney form with him to Melbourne for his third career visit but got too far back in the G2 Caulfield Sprint. The James Cummings trained, and Godolphin blue owned, are well represented during the Melbourne Spring and this boy rates highly. He’s remains on the up and is likely to be suited by the Flemington track, plus, particularly strong through the core.

 

IT’SOURTIME won the G3 Aurie’s Star Handicap over this course and trip in August and has since been consistent. He was vetted at the gates in Sydney last start before settling back and finding bother through the later stages. He’ll cherish the return back to Melbourne, and Flemington to say the least, and a runner I find quite difficult to ignore.

 

C’EST MAGIQUE is a lightly raced but highly talented 4YO mare who is yet to reach her full potential. With two weeks between runs from her forgivable ninth in the G2 Tristarc Stakes, where she was ridden upside down, she’s ideally placed to atone. Her closing sectional data was impressive when she previously raced here so the return to Famous Flemington is key.

 

TRIPLE MISSILE hadn’t done much racing over the past ten months which ultimately cost him the win in the G2 Gilgai Stakes. Conversely, he coped superbly in defeat during his first run after a long break and is generally far better second up. He has an excellent record down the Flemington straight and should be in the fight, but an inside draw does appear to be the potential negative.

 

CHAIN OF LIGHTNING chased home a rising star in ASFOORA in the G2 Schillaci Stakes first up and that form is some of the best going around. She’s got the weight to carry today, and unfortunately draw low, which could both go against her winning hopes. Nevertheless, she’s a big strong girl with a previous win at this track and her second up record is supreme.

 

SELECTIONS: 7. SPACEWALK, 4. IT’SOURTIME, 9. C’EST MAGIQUE, 5. TRIPLE MISSILE & 2. CHAIN OF LIGHTNING

 

4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 7. SPACEWALK & 4. IT’SOURTIME
S1-5: Multiple – 3. KONASANA & 1. ZARDOZI

 

S1-5     Wakeful Stakes

 

KONASANA is the X-Factor at the 2,000m but continues to race greenly whilst making plenty of mistakes. She showed an appreciation for the long straight here at Flemington before an honest performance in the G3 Ethereal Stakes. She reads as the filly with the most upside, and can definitely win, but must be taken with a pinch of salt because she could throw the race away.

 

ZARDOZI has the score on the board as far as the handicaps are concerned following her dominance in the G2 Edward Manifold stakes. She’s now one for one at Flemington and ventured back to Sydney since her last win for an additional trial. The 2,000m is the question mark alongside her name and a rain affected track is preferably what she wants, but her overall class takes her a very along way.

 

HARLOW MIST has suffered defeat on only one occasion to this point and that was in Sydney last start. She covered a massive amount of extra ground that day before chiming in later stages to narrowly go under. She won the 1,800m at Flemington, defeating KONASANA, back in September and there’s plenty of whispers around to say she’ll go close.

 

AMAZONIAN LASS was defeated by ZARDOZI in the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes after setting up camp in front. There are questions being raised as to whether she’ll run the distance and they’re probably justified in some respect. However, she’ll be sent forward from the wide barrier, with minimal opposing pace, so don’t be surprised if she runs a big race dictating fractions on the lead.

 

DIAMONDS CHOICE is bred in the purple and desperately looking for the 2,000m and beyond. She’s displayed plenty of confidence following her recent maiden win and has since chased home Derby aspirant AIR ASSAULT gamely to the line. She possesses tactical speed and enjoys a solid pace throughout and could even attempt to try and lead all the way.

 

SELECTIONS: 3. KONASANA, 1. ZARDOZI, 4. HARLOW MIST, 5. AMAZONIAN LASS & 8. DIAMONDS CHOICE

 

5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 3. KONASANA & 1. ZARDOZI
S1-6: Multiple – 18. STRETAN ANGEL & 2. CYLINDER

 

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:   
Banker – 3. KONASANA
Selections – 1. ZARDOZI, 4. HARLOW MIST, 5. AMAZONIAN LASS & 8. DIAMONDS CHOICE
S1-6:   
Banker – 18. STRETAN ANGEL
Selections – 2. CYLINDER, 5. KING’S GAMBIT, 10. I AM UNSTOPPABLE & 1. SHINZO

 

S1-6     Coolmore Stud Stakes (Ascot Vale Stakes)

 

STRETAN ANGEL has looked exceptionally smart from day one of her career and is a G1 winner waiting to happen. Her two recent efforts over the 1,100m at Flemington, the latter of which she won, have displayed speed and strength along with a feel for wanting more ground. The 1,200m of the day’s feature 3YO sprint is therefore ideal, particularly when it’s partnered by the filly’s weight allowance. She’s drawn the right part of the track and should be right in amongst the big money.

 

CYLINDER is the highest rated 3YO competing in this year’s G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes and the pick from Godolphin. His effort in the G1 Golden Rose was superb over the 1,400m before a dazzling on speed performance in The Everest against older horses. The form out of that particular event shall obviously stand up incredibly well but he’s still got to go out there and get it done, with the queries being a trip to Melbourne and the long Flemington straight.

 

KING’S GAMBIT finished third in the Listed Poseidon Stakes over the 1,100m here at Flemington in September which was an invaluable experience for this event. He’s since destroyed the field in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes at Rosehill when ridden with a touch of patience. He’ll need to bring that tactical versatility back to Melbourne, if he’s going to win, because running down the straight track is an entirely different story.

 

I AM UNSTOPPABLE was narrowly defeated in the G2 Danehill Stakes behind STRETAN ANGEL and I’m anticipating that form can hold up. He’s a smashing looking thoroughbred, with this race his main goal, and has drawn well nearer the outside part of the track. He’ll need to lift and find additional lengths if he’s to win, with many of the option that he can.

 

SHINZO won the G1 Golden Slipper in March at Rosehill and in the process defeated many of today’s opponents. His form in return appears ordinary following a winter spell but I wouldn’t be fooled by the way everything reads. He pulled up sore first up before problem after problem in The Everest when only beaten by 3.57 lengths. It’s his first trip to Melbourne and debut down the Flemington straight, but you’d be brave to say he won’t or can’t feature.

 

SELECTIONS: 18. STRETAN ANGEL, 2. CYLINDER, 5. KING’S GAMBIT, 10. I AM UNSTOPPABLE & 1. SHINZO

 

6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 18. STRETAN ANGEL & 2. CYLINDER
S1-7: Multiple – 1. APULIA & 4. RIFF ROCKET

 

S1-7     Victoria Derby

 

APULIA arrives with a solid foundation of racing and residual fitness under the saddle to give the coveted G1 Victoria Derby a real shake. He found the line superbly in the reliant lead up, the G3 Caulfield Classic, before an outstanding runaway win last week in the G2 Moonee Valley Vase. With the famous Hayes touch doing the final preparations I’d expect he raises the bar, stepping to the 2,500m, and is labelled one of the hardest horses to beat.

 

RIFF ROCKET was touted the early Derby favourite following his demolition in the Listed Super Impose Stakes where he bolted in by 5.5 lengths. But he was brought back to earth recently when he suffered defeat, as the favourite, in the G3 Caulfield Classic. However, in that race there were legitimate excuses as to why he didn’t win, with tempo and traffic the culprits. He shouldn’t have any issues running 2,500m and is entitled to winning claims.

 

AIR ASSAULT made the trip to Melbourne from South Australia last week with a pair of wins alongside his name. The son of American sire JUSTIFY displayed a high level of courage to finish third in the G2 Moonee Valley Vase after clearly struggling with the tight track. It’s a decent hike in class, and the handicaps say he probably can’t win, but he’ll thrive on the 2,500m and big spacious track at Flemington.

 

VERDAD was brilliant in the G2 Stutt Stakes here at Moonee Valley behind subsequent G1 Caulfield Guineas winner GRIFF and is a proper contender. The wide barrier caused him plenty of pain in the aforementioned G1 Caulfield Guineas but he remained honest in his endeavour and approach. A good draw here is vital to his prospects and the rise in journey looks achievable.

 

ROGUERY won his maiden in good fashion at Tatura before wearing down the opposition at Kilmore, over 2,000m, in his following and most recent start. He’s got plenty to find on ratings, and shall go around at a big price, but I like the way he finds under pressure. He’s a long shot to include in all exotics.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. APULIA, 4. RIFF ROCKET, 3. AIR ASSAULT, 2. VERDAD & 12. ROGUERY

 

7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 1. APULIA & 4. RIFF ROCKET
S1-8: Multiple – 14. WISHLOR LASS & 2. PRINCESS GRACE

 

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 1. APULIA, 4. RIFF ROCKET & 3. AIR ASSAULT
S1-8: Multiple – 14. WISHLOR LASS, 2. PRINCESS GRACE & 4. ATISHU
S1-9: Multiple – 5. TAMERLANE, 4. AYRTON & 10. HERE TO SHOCK

 

S1-8     Empire Rose Stakes

 

WISHLOR LASS heads back to Flemington after a third consecutive win last weekend in the G3 Tesio Stakes. Her overall record now reads six wins from eight starts so she’s an extremely exciting young lady of the turf. She’s tactically versatile with a good turn of foot although her best results have been produced when racing on speed. It’s a big jump from G3 to G1 but she’s well equipped to handle the challenge.

 

PRINCESS GRACE has enhanced her profile as a genuine top-class mare recently with multiple high grade performances. The former American filly arrived in Australia with a formidable record winning six of her first seven starts. The transition to the southern hemisphere has taken place without a hitch and she’s yet to finish any worse than fourth. With another contest against her fellow mares looming at weight for age she’ll take some beating.

 

ATISHU finished fifth in this event last year before winning the G2 Matriarch Stakes, a week later, on the final day of the Flemington spring carnival. That’ll be the main aim once again but whispers circulating are suggesting she’s arrived particularly well within herself. She’s got the class and shall more than likely be gifted the fast race pattern she adores, so she goes in despite the query of a likely firming track.

 

LIFE LESSONS chased home the newest star of the Australian turf in AMELIA’S JEWEL two start back and that form has held up well. She was thrown in the deep end on that occasion but found the line with power under incredible pressure. The handicappers recently elevated her rating points to 99 for victory in the G2 Rose of Kingston Stakes, which makes her a serious and contender. The rise to 1,600m remains a hurdle she must jump but has never raced better.

 

FOXY FRIDA is a runner at a price with the potential qualifications to run well. Her first two runs back this campaign have been desperately needed but her third up record reads swell. She was narrowly defeated at G1 level over 1,400m last preparation, and a similar performance today puts her in the mix. She’s also one for one over this course and trip, so any pace up front can assist her to run home well.

 

SELECTIONS: 14. WISHLOR LASS, 2. PRINCESS GRACE, 4. ATISHU, 12. LIFE LESSONS & 6. FOXY FRIDA

 

8TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-8: Multiple – 14. WISHLOR LASS & 2. PRINCESS GRACE
S1-9: Multiple – 5. TAMERLANE & 4. AYRTON

 

S1-9     The Damien Oliver (Linlithgow Stakes)

 

TAMERLANE was in need of his first up run in the G3 Bill Ritchie Handicap but quickly atoned with a dominant performance in the Listed Paris Lane stakes here at Flemington. He has the acceleration to lead this race from the inside draw whilst absorbing any opposing or alternative speed. The distance reads ideal, and he copes with any conditions so he’ll take beating again for the girls and boys in blue.

 

AYRTON emerged a potential star when he first began racing before suffering a lull in form toward the end of last autumn. A six-month winter spell could be responsible for a dazzling first up win where he never looked like getting beat. The second up syndrome and switch to Flemington may dampen his enthusiasm, along with a wide and awkward draw, but he arrives in good shape and with luck in running can again score.

 

HERE TO SHOCK had excuses in the G1 Toorak Handicap at Caulfield but was excellent against ANTINO prior in the G3 Sandown Stakes. He’s raced at Flemington on six occasions but unfortunately never been placed, however, that’s not a true reflection of his ability. With his best attribute his high cruising speed and front running style he’s a chance of running boldly from the low and assisting gate.

 

KALINO must step up in grade from a listed win over this course and distance but is capable of handling the rise. He’s a good honest campaigner with fitness near its peak and should run you an honest race. Both horse and rider know each other well and the mid-range draw can allow him the space to close the race of well.

 

VILANA resumed last start in a hot contest after a freshen up and is certainly made of the right stuff. He’s untried at Flemington, and would prefer cushion in the track, but at the same time capable on good to firm. Interestingly, James McDonald was aboard in a trial at Rosehill, before he ran first up, which is ultimately a tip in itself. Nevertheless, Damien Oliver now takes the reins and shall attempt to win the race named after himself.

 

SELECTIONS: 5. TAMERLANE, 4. AYRTON, 10. HERE TO SHOCK, 12. KALINO & 1. VILANA

 

 

 

Disclaimer:

The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.

HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.