 Expert - Jon Lees | |
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| Jon Lees is an award-winning racing journalist who was senior news reporter for the Racing Post for 20 years, before that he was chief racing correspondent for Britain’s national news agency, the Press Association. He was named Racing Reporter of the Year at the HWPA Derby Awards in 2013. He has travelled extensively covering horse racing, attending his first Breeders’ Cup in 1994. Since 2018 Jon has been a freelance, writing for The Times, the Telegraph, At The Races and Breeders’ Cup, working in PR for Ladbrokes and Newbury racecourse, and regularly contributes to the website horseracingplanet.com. | |
Expert Column for Breeders' Cup Turf (S2-1) and Breeders' Cup Classic (S2-2) (Jon Lees)
S2-1 Breeders' Cup Turf
Just twice in the last ten runnings have the Americans produced the winner of the turf. Sending one of its most powerful teams to Santa Anita Park this year, the Europeans look likely to keep their dominance in this race.
Because of a weather-affected end of the turf season in Europe star names, such as MOSTAHDAF and AUGUSTE RODIN have been rerouted to Santa Anita Park while KING OF STEEL will tackle the turf two weeks after winning the G1 Champion Stakes on soft ground at Ascot.
MOSTAHDAF ran his first race of the year in February where he was the impressive winner of Saudi Arabia’s G3 Neom Turf Cup. He then finished fourth behind world number one EQUINOX in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic, then laid claim to being the best at 2,000m in Europe with a four lengths victory in the G1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. In a showdown with four-time G1 winner PADDINGTON at York, he made all the running to score by a length. The turf will be MOSTAHDAF’s first run at 2,400m this year, but he has won over the distance before and more importantly gets the fast ground he prefers.
It is rare for a winner of the G1 Derby Stakes to run at the Breeders’ Cup but, according to Aidan O’Brien, AUGUSTE RODIN is a rare horse. The son of DEEP IMPACT bounced back from flopping in the 2000 Guineas to win the Derby Stakes at Epsom, beating KING OF STEEL. He added the G1 Irish Derby to his haul but threw in another shocker in the G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. O’Brien brought him back to 2,000m for the G1 Irish Champion Stakes where he defeated older horses for the first time plus KING OF STEEL again. Ground and distance will be fine for him at Santa Anita but O’Brien has previously suggested traveling by air as a potential reason behind his two defeats. O’Brien also runs BOLSHOI BALLET and BROOME.
KING OF STEEL had a hard race in the G1 Champion Stakes at Ascot on testing conditions but showed plenty of character to come from last to win. He has had a busy time since the Derby Stakes and he has been held by AUGUSTE RODIN on both the occasions they have met.
Runners in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe have an impressive record in the turf, with ENABLE, HIGHLAND REEL and ST NICHOLAS ABBEY all winning the race on their next start. That makes ONESTO a serious contender after he finished third behind ACE IMPACT and WESTOVER. It was the best performance yet by the G1 winner who made a late start to his campaign.
SELECTIONS: 9. MOSTAHDAF, 5. AUGUSTE RODIN, 11. KING OF STEEL, 2. ONESTO & 4. BOLSHOI BALLET
DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-1: Multiple – 9. MOSTAHDAF & 5. AUGUSTE RODIN
S2-2: Multiple – 5. DERMA SOTOGAKE & 4. MISSED THE CUT
S2-2 Breeders' Cup Classic
It’s not a vintage year for US horses in the Classic division and their traditional domination of this event will be put under serious threat this time by Japan. Only New York’s ARCANGELO has looked the real deal and with his late scratching and the absence of Kentucky Derby winner MAGE, FORTE and GEAUX ROCKET RIDE has left the division wide open.
It presents four-time Classic-winning trainer Bob Baffert with another prime opportunity on his home track. He saddles ARABIAN KNIGHT who has won three out of four and is only now coming to the boil. His only defeat was in the G1 Haskell Stakes behind GEAUX ROCKET RIDE and MAGE over a possibly inadequate 1,800m. Back over 2,000m at Del Mar, he turned the tables on GEAUX ROCKET RIDE to land the G1 Pacific Classic by a neck. Third placed SLOW DOWN ANDY gave the form a boost by winning the G1 Awesome Again Stakes next time out.
USHBA TESORO caused a surprise by capturing the G1 Dubai World Cup in March but he must be taken very seriously at Santa Anita. The race has been his goal ever since and he enjoyed the ideal warm-up when winning a local Grade 2 race at Funabashi in September.
On the same Meydan card, DERMA SOTOGAKE sealed a trip to the US for the G1 Kentucky Derby when scoring by five and a half lengths in the UAE Derby. He made all the running on that occasion but was unable to get a similar position at Churchill Downs but still finished a respectable sixth. He lines up in the Classic without having a run since. He had a hoof injury which prevented him having a prep run but has made a full recovery.
MISSED THE CUT, at big odds, is an intriguing runner. A Royal Ascot winner on turf, he also beat ALGIERS on synthetic and was being considered for the Saudi Cup at the start of the year. He ended up running in the G3 Neom Turf Cup, finishing fourth to MOSTAHDAF. He was subsequently moved to the California barn of John W Sadler, getting off the mark on dirt at the third attempt last time.
SAUDI CROWN has a similar profile to ARABIAN KNIGHT as the 3YO on an upward profile. Unraced as a 2YO, he has won three of his five starts, and but for twice going down by the margin of a nose in his two defeats, he would be unbeaten. Last time out he won the G1 Pennsylvania Derby and while it is one of the less glamorous G1 races, former winners include BAYERN, FROSTED, HOT ROD CHARLIE and TAIBA.
SELECTIONS: 5. DERMA SOTOGAKE, 4. MISSED THE CUT, 8. USHBA TESORO, 12. ARABIAN KNIGHT & 6. SAUDI CROWN
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