 Expert - Brett Davis | |
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| Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts. | |
Expert Column for Melbourne Cup Day (S3) (Brett Davis)
S3-1 Schweppervescence Plate
REVALENE is a strapping young colt that appears a likely type and must be included in all calculations. He’s drawn ideally wide out to obtain cover through the first half before opening up his engine through the final stages. He’s yet to win a maiden however the straight track can assist in exposing a good gallopers true ability, particularly when the hard core pressure goes on.
JEWEL BAY has tuned up into a very smart galloper and won’t be an easy horse to beat. The straight 1,000m at Flemington is so far untried but he oozes class, pace and tremendous body strength. The low draw, in the small field, shouldn’t prove to a much of deterrent and he’ll look the winner at some point in the race.
BARBER is getting back conveyance that would appreciate a high race speed. The Godolphin runner has been out of form his two runs back but the blinkers are now being applied. He’s worked nicely in the aforementioned head gear leading up and if he brings that focus and intent to races then he can win.
WIGGUM initially began racing in Melbourne before a switch to South Australia after his debut win at Ballarat. He possesses excellent gate speed and does most things right so he’s quite mature for his age and experience. The blinkers are being applied for his first attempt down the straight and they’ll help to focus him away from the big crowd.
CAPITALISATION finished second behind GUMDROPS recently with that horse since winning a quality city race. He the ventured to Moe last start where he smashed the opposition with an arrogant front running display. This is tougher but he’s drawn well and trained by a powerful and prudent yard.
SELECTIONS: 8. REVALENE, 4. JEWEL BAY, 1. BARBER, 5. WIGGUM & 9. CAPITALISATION
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-1: Multiple – 8. REVALENE & 4. JEWEL BAY
S3-2: Multiple – 12. INSULATION & 5. KING’S CROSSING
S3-2 BM96 Handicap
INSULATION is starting to build a good horses record with two wins, and two seconds this campaign. He’s been exceptionally well placed to handle a gradual class rise and has dealt with patches of adversity along the way. He likes to settle back before working into the race the last half and is likely to take a power of beating.
KING’S CROSSING is a good young stayer with his best racing ahead and arrives a last start winner at Geelong. His effort at Flemington over 2,500m in July displayed exciting qualities when he charged home to narrowly go down. FIRST IMMORTAL defeated him on that occasion and he’s been a spring revelation over the last six weeks. Damian Lane is riding as good as ever and stays atop the saddle from a good draw.
SUPAGIRL won 2,100m by a massive margin third up and must be entertained. The former Irish mare has been in Australia for a year now and is finally starting to flourish. She likes to do things her way, by getting out and setting the speed, and with minimal opportunities for others to take her on she’ll run a good race.
R WATERVILLE arrived to Australia from Ireland as a genuine two miler and with more time could’ve challenged for a position in the G1 Melbourne Cup. His recent fourth in the G3 Geelong Cup was brave after covering ground. He has a good solid fitness base and shall be partnered by Joao Moreira so I’d be expecting an honest run.
THE MAP is an up and coming mare who held an initial entry for today’s feature, the G1 Melbourne Cup. She hasn’t done enough to reach those lofty heights but can be competitive in this much easier contest. She never looked comfortable in the G3 Geelong Cup but is much better than the effort suggests.
SELECTIONS: 12. INSULATION, 5. KING’S CROSSING, 7. SUPAGIRL, 3. MR WATERVILLE & 9. THE MAP
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-2: Multiple – 12. INSULATION & 5. KING’S CROSSING
S3-3: Multiple – 2. GLINT OF SILVER & 9. PLATINUM WOLF
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S3-2:
Banker – 12. INSULATION
Selections – 5. KING’S CROSSING, 7. SUPAGIRL, 3. MR WATERVILLE & 9. THE MAP
S3-3:
Banker – 2. GLINT OF SILVER
Selections – 9. PLATINUM WOLF, 1. LOVE TAP, 4. BERKSHIRE BREEZE & 3. PRINCE JOFRA
S3-3 BM90 Handicap
GLINT OF SILVER has enjoyed a freshen up following his last start at Newcastle where he tired out noticeably after doing too much work. His overall form is patchy but quite superior to most when you consider he’s a G2 winner. He’s never been to Flemington but draws ideally in gate one and Zac Purton is on course to take the ride.
PLATINUM WOLF arrives third up from South Australia for his first Melbourne assignment. The big open spaces of Flemington are going to suit this burly grey who has a long gapping action and stride. He’s tactically versatile, but better ridden from behind, with the whisper’s circulating around suggesting he’ll go close.
LOVE TAP defeated KOOLED in this race for the grey horses last year and both are given a win place chance today. It’s a wide-open contest with plenty of hopes and unfortunately this fellow hasn’t won since. He did find the line in reasonable fashion first up in Sydney so I won’t say he can’t win back to back.
BERKSHIRE BREEZE makes his Australian debut after arriving from the northern hemisphere earlier in the year. He was ultra-consistent back home and won his final two starts on the polytrack at Lingfield. He’s been working well for an extremely astute stable and his two 1,000m jump outs have him ready to go.
PRINCE JOFRA is rock hard fit and can roll forward initially to off set the wide gate. He’s eyeing of win ten of his career and the right man is in the saddle to achieve it. The class of opposition appears quite defendable particularly of a nice weight.
SELECTIONS: 2. GLINT OF SILVER, 9. PLATINUM WOLF, 1. LOVE TAP, 4. BERKSHIRE BREEZE & 3. PRINCE JOFRA
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-3: Multiple – 2. GLINT OF SILVER & 9. PLATINUM WOLF
S3-4: Multiple – 1. GOLD TRIP & 3. WITHOUT A FIGHT
S3-4 Melbourne Cup
GOLD TRIP finished second in the G1 Caulfield Cup last year before going on to win Australia’s greatest 3,200m event the 2022 G1 Melbourne Cup. This year he’s been trained accordingly to follow the same identical path and is seemingly going as good, if not better. He returned with a strong effort first up at Moonee Valley, carrying 137lbs, before an electrifying and jaw dropping last to first win in the G1 Turnbull Stakes over 2,000m. He then ran a courageous third in the G1 Caulfield Cup over 2,400m before a held up and luckless fifth in the G1 Cox Plate over 2,040m. He has an extra couple of pounds to shoulder, and the track is likely to be firm, but he’s bordering on champion status right now which means he can still win.
WITHOUT A FIGHT ran unplaced in this race last year off the back of a somewhat rushed drop-in campaign. He then remained in Australia, enjoyed a lengthy spell, before returning to racing with a dominant pair of wins at Eagle Farm in May and June. A program aimed at the G1 Caulfield Cup over 2,400m was thereafter devised and he arrived to that event primed and ready to win, which is precisely what he did. He’s now completed the full circle and finds himself back for the G1 Melbourne Cup over 3,200m and attempt number two. However, this time around he’s the well-oiled machine connections could’ve only dreamt of so he’ll be hard to run down.
VAUBAN is trained in Ireland by Willie Mullins and arrives to Australia as the labelled race favourite for this year’s edition of the Melbourne Cup. Mullins has already had minor success in the great race with MAX DYNAMITE in 2015 and 2017 but rates VAUBAN superior. He’s been station at Werribee, in provincial Victoria, where he’s participated in numerous gallops before venturing to Flemington for a gallop and look around. His body weight since arriving is slightly up, but he’s been in training without a substantial break for almost a year, so residual fitness remains high. He’ll race in the first half, no matter what he draws, and when push comes to shove, he should be thereabouts.
SOULCOMBE began his racing in the United Kingdom before transferring to Chris Waller from William Haggas in November 2022. He had one win and second over 2,600m in his first two runs in Flemington. A lengthy break was justified by a superb win at Caulfield in Sep this year, before covering ground and missing the start in the G1 Underwood Stakes. The inside draw brought about traffic issues in the G1 Turnbull Stakes before exploding in to third once clear. He’s a high calibre thoroughbred with an exceptional turn of foot and the 3,200m appears a suitable trip. However, he must mend his ordinary barrier manners, which cost him the G1 Caulfield Cup, if he’s to be a contender.
BREAKUP represents Japan and we know there a difficult nation to ignore when they travel their thoroughbreds to foreign land. His form tells me he’s a long way from the best galloper going around there but that doesn’t mean he won’t measure up. His action and overall data suggest he’ll want every single meter of this 3,200m event, and that’s precisely how he performed in the G1 Caulfield Cup over 2,400m. He was fourth in the G1 Tenno Sho Spring in April over 3,200m and despite being beaten for a turn of foot, he kept running and running at very high speed to the line.
SELECTIONS: 1. GOLD TRIP, 3. WITHOUT A FIGHT, 5. VAUBAN, 6. SOULCOMBE & 4. BREAKUP
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-4: Multiple – 1. GOLD TRIP & 3. WITHOUT A FIGHT
S3-5: Multiple – 3. KIMOCHI & 14. BATRANA
S3-5 Desirable Stakes
KIMOCHI has finished runner-up at her past three starts and could certainly have won two with a touch of luck. She’s exceptionally well placed at the set weights scale, with no penalty, considering she went down fighting in the G1 Flight Stakes. She’s like to race handy, but can deal with anything asked, so her maiden trip to Melbourne could easily produce a win.
BATRANA makes her debut at Flemington following a dominant win at Ballarat over the 1,400m when starting favourite. She’s another good looking youngster by American stallion JUSTIFY, with her best racing clearly still come. She’s drawn to race handy, whilst doing now work, and highly probable she’ll measure up to the class.
FACILE has found the line well her past couple and suggests she can trouble the favourites because she is still on the up. She’s also giving the impression 1,400m is now what’s she’s craving and arrives close to her best and ready to peak. A spot in the first five is her travelling position and she’ll run you a good race.
JOLIESTAR shall create plenty of interest with the powerful Chris Waller and Joao Moreira combination. She won her maiden well in June at Warwick Farm before returning to a narrow defeat first up. With a touch of luck she’d remain unbeaten after impeded running cost her the wins early on.
APRILIA has her hoof firmly on the till following four runs back from a spell and on ratings is one of the hardest to beat. The former Kiwi is already placed at G1 level, in her initial racing life, and I expect her to again race handy to the speed. With that the case, she’ll put herself into a winning position and can thereafter atone for a disappointing run last start.
SELECTIONS: 3. KIMOCHI, 14. BATRANA, 4. FACILE, 10. JOLIESTAR & 6. APRILIA
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-5: Multiple – 3. KIMOCHI & 14. BATRANA
S3-6: Multiple – 1. MADAME POMMERY & 8. LA DANSEUSE ROUGE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S3-5:
Banker – 3. KIMOCHI
Selections – 14. BATRANA, 4. FACILE, 10. JOLIESTAR & 6. APRILIA
S3-6:
Banker – 1. MADAME POMMERY
Selections – 8. LA DANSEUSE ROUGE, 9. CARDIGAN QUEEN & 2. SKEW WIFF
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S3-5: Multiple – 3. KIMOCHI, 14. BATRANA & 4. FACILE
S3-6: Multiple – 1. MADAME POMMERY, 8. LA DANSEUSE ROUGE & 9. CARDIGAN QUEEN
S3-7: Multiple – 16. CHORLTON LANE, 8. RISE OF THE MASSES & 3. CHICAGO STORM
S3-6 The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (Maybe Mahal Stakes)
MADAME POMMERY won the G1 Thousand Guineas over 1,600m at Caulfield last October, but her form is unpredictable. She returned this preparation with a fabulous fast finishing second behind PERICLES, at Rosehill over 1,400m, before a pair of below grade efforts thereafter. However, her unlucky fourth most recently in the G2 Tristarc Stakes at Caulfield confirmed she is ready to win. She’s a risky conveyance, but has the motor, so from the wide draw I expect she’s receives the space and can win.
LA DANSEUSE ROUGE is racing brilliantly at the moment and that’s highlighted by the fact Damian Lane now takes the ride. She’s tactical versatility, however, this campaign the Cliff Brown stable have focused on teaching her to settle behind. It’s been working well, with her form telling the story, following a terrific closing third in the G3 Northwood Plume Stakes last start. She’s now ready for an attempt at 1,400m and is hard to fault from the draw.
CARDIGAN QUEEN appears right at the peak of her game following a powerful win at Caulfield in September. She followed that up with a courageous closing fourth in the G3 Northwood Plume Stakes, again at Caulfield over 1,200m, after settling a long way back. Her record at Flemington over 1,400m reads good enough to potentially win, and it’s highly probable she runs a nice race.
SKEW WIFF arrives at Flemington for her second race on Australian soil after being scratched at the gates in the G2 Rose Of Kingston Stakes. She then gave the impression she needed the outing in the G2 Tristarc Stakes at Caulfield after tiring the final stages. Softer track conditions would be more to her liking but she possesses to much class to completely overlook.
SELECTIONS: 1. MADAME POMMERY, 8. LA DANSEUSE ROUGE, 9. CARDIGAN QUEEN & 2. SKEW WIFF
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-6: Multiple – 1. MADAME POMMERY & 8. LA DANSEUSE ROUGE
S3-7: Multiple – 16. CHORLTON LANE & 8. RISE OF THE MASSES
S3-7 BM90 Handicap
CHORLTON LANE has produced excellent rating performances in all runs this time in and could definitely be the horse to beat of a light weight. He ran twice in the Northern hemisphere on the synthetic track before transferring to Australia earlier on this year. He’s coped with everything since, like an absolute pro, and is yet to run a bad race.
RISE OF THE MASSES won the G3 Pago Pago Stakes before his form turned sour for a lengthy period of time. It was eighteen months between wins after he got the money at Warwick Farm and now appears the horse of old. Another strong effort was witnessed recently at Randwick so I’d be surprised if he didn’t run well with Zac Purton aboard.
CHICAGO STORM has developed an impressive record in his eighteenth start career and carry’s the required armoury to win from the good draw. He recently dispatched the field over 1,500m in South Australia with the race never looking in doubt. He’s tactically gifted and possesses a barrelling turn of foot, but most importantly has a desperate want to win.
LAFARGUE has elevated to a new level this preparation and is worthy of thought when considering the race options. He’s never raced better and arrives off an effortless win in lower grade. Conversely, the opposition was quite strong that day with a familiar jockey Billy Egan taking the ride. Plus, his Flemington track record is much better that it reads.
BERMADEZ has been out of form for a while over the longer distance but maybe worth considering at a big price. Damien Oliver has won five races on the 7YO gelding and he enjoys this track and surface. Fitness won’t be an issue because he’s been up for a while so if they crack on speed early, he could hit the line.
SELECTIONS: 16. CHORLTON LANE, 8. RISE OF THE MASSES, 3. CHICAGO STORM, 12. LAFARGUE & 6. BERMADEZ
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