Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Tokyo Racecourse – Track Analysis (Japan Cup):

Tokyo Racecourse is an anti-clockwise oval track with two chutes that rejoin the main course for 1800m and 2000m races respectively. One of the renowned features for Tokyo Racecourse is its extended homestretch over 525.9m, which is the second longest in JRA's tracks, only after outer track at Niigata. In addition, the homestretch is going uphill and the final 300m is the highest point, front runners usually find it difficult to make all if they are failed to run away from the field early in the straight. Overall, Tokyo Racecourse is recognized as a fair and straightforward track, where true ability of runners reflects to the result genuinely.

Same as the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), the 2400m G1 Japan Cup is also conducted on the turf course at Tokyo. Starting gate is set at 317m before the finishing line on the homestretch and the distance from the starting gate to the beginning of the near turn is 350m. Recent statistic shows outside draw is not favourable at this course, as SUAVE RICHARD, who jumped from gate 11 and finished third in 2018, and SHAHRYAR, who jumped from gate 15 and finished second in 2022, are the two horses which jumped from double digit draw and finished within first three in the last five running of Japan Cup.

There is a sharp rise in the middle of the backstretch with difference in height of 1.5m which comes suddenly after the 600m downslope beginning at the early part of the near turn. Meanwhile, there is a 160m long sharp rise begins from the top of the homestretch, although the final 300m is flat. In all, Tokyo is a fair track, where true ability of runners reflects on the result straightforwardly. However, front runners find it difficult to make all and it is a tough task to both the runners' speed and stamina, especially for the reason that they are required to climb uphill for two times over 2400m. Those with sharp acceleration at the final part of race generally get the upper hand.

Last year’s Japan Cup was conducted on good to firm turf. SHAHRYAR was supported as hot favourite. There was no typical front runner in the 18 runners field. In such slowly-run race, SHAHRYAR with Cristian Demuro stayed at the back, while DANON BELUGA with Yuga Kawada on saddle was settled at tenth position. As Kawada asked DANON BELUGA to make a move at top of homestretch, DANON BELUGA responded well and delivered the strongest challenge to hit the front at 300m to the wire. At a furlong pole, WELTREISENDE stretched his legs on rail side and SHAHRYAR delivered strong challenge on stand side. A few moments later, it was VELA AZUL, who displayed the sharpest late kick at crucial stage of race and drew right away to score by three quarters of length. SHAHRYAR finished second, being ahead of WELTREISENDE by neck. DANON BELUGA was hampered by drifted-left SHAHRYAR at 100m to the wire, and finished fifth.

Autumn meeting at Tokyo started on 7th October and the Japan Cup day is the 17th meeting there. While turf track is still keeping good cushion, surface on rail side is rough in places. Weather at the area of Tokyo Racecourse has been mostly dry recently, and no rain is forecasted through the week to Japan Cup. Therefore, good ground is expected at Tokyo on the day of Japan Cup.

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