 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Arima Kinen Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 2yo Newcomer
My favourite is CISALPINO. The 2YO colt by DREFONG was sent to the barn of Noriyuki Hori at Miho Training Centre at the beginning of November and has been trained well since then. Noriyuki Hori judges he is ready to run now and has booked Ryan Moore for CISALPINO in the maiden. He was breezed with TASTIERA, who is entered in the G1 Arima Kinen on the same day, on 20th Wednesday and finished a length behind of TASTIERA. I judge it was a good breeze. He has a nice temperament and I feel CISALPINO has a sharp turn of foot, which he should have inherited from his broodmare sire, DEEP IMPACT. I believe he has a bright future.
My second choice is VERMEER. He is by REAL IMPACT, who won G1 George Ryder Stakes at Rosehill Gardens. And he is half-brother to RAINBOW LINE, who won G1 Tenno Sho Spring. Recent track works of this well-bred colt are very impressive, for example, he was competitive running against older horses last week. And he looks a very easy horse to handle, and I judge he is able to show his true ability in the race, even though this is his first start.
MEISHO UMIKAZE, 2YO colt by WORLD ACE is my third choice. While the clocking time of his breezes in the morning ae not so quick, I have a feeling that he is now ready to run. Although he may not have sharp turn of foot, he should have stamina and I suppose he can keep stretching his legs for more than 600m or 800m. And I think he is a suitable horse for the track at Nakayama, which has sharp rise on homestretch.
NEXT HEROINE is my fourth choice. She is by BRICKS AND MORTAR, who is a first season sire and has sent 13 2YO winners by last weekend. And she is out of WEDDING FUJIKO, who was trained by the same trainer as NEXT HEROINE and won five races at JRA, including a 1,600m race over the same course as this maiden. Her action in the morning reminds me her dam, WEDDING FUJIKO, and I assess she has a bright future.
My fifth choice is RHEIN PORTULACA. Her sire, ANIMAL KINGDOM, has been sending many good dirt runners and his broodmare sire is GOLD ALLURE, Japanese Dirt Champion. Therefore, her pedigree may suggest she is a dirt horse, however, I have a different opinion. I judge from morning track works that RHEIN PORTULACA is a turf horse. And her dam RHEIN HARDY won two races on turf. I believe RHEIN PORTULACA is able to hit the board on Sunday.
SELECTIONS: 12. CISALPINO, 14. VERMEER, 1. MEISHO UMIKAZE, 11. NEXT HEROINE & 2. RHEIN PORTULACA
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 12. CISALPINO & 14. VERMEER
S1-2: Multiple – 16. HISAME & 12. CORRIENTES
S1-2 3yo and up 1 win
I select Godolphin’s HISAME as my favourite. The 3YO colt by TANINO GIMLET made his racecourse debut at Niigata on 12th August and won maiden by four lengths. It was a huge upset, as he was 207 to 1 shot in 15 runners’ field. HISAME appeared at Tokyo Racecourse on 25th November and finished second in allowance race for one time winners. I regard this for highly, as it was the first start for him at the class for one time winners and failed to jump from barrier quickly. He has good turn of foot and I believe he is competitive running against one time winners. If HISAME jumps quicker on Sunday, I believe he has very good chance to graduate this class.
My second choice is CORRIENTES by DEEP IMPACT. This well-bred colt had a temperament issue, which harmed him to show his true ability in races. However, he was gelded at the end of last season, and CORRIENTES has been performing much better this season. He has started three times at this class so far this year, and finished 4th, 2nd, and 2nd. In the allowance race at Chukyo on 3rd December, he stumbled soon after the break and was still manage to finish second, beaten by half a length. It is encouraging factor that Ryan Moore is booked for him on Sunday.
My third choice is CROCKFORD. The 3YO gelding by LORD KANALOA has won maiden at the same course and distance as this allowance race by five lengths on 24th December 2022. Since then, he ran poorly in four starts and the connections decided to geld him. This is the first start for him since he was gelded and he is trained very well in the morning at Miho Training Centre. If he is able to show his true ability on Sunday, he should have good chance to finish within first three.
COURS SCELTA was transferred from NAR to JRA earlier this year and finished seventh in allowance race for one time winners at Nakayama on 8th April. Knee fracture was found after the race and he was given eight months off. COURS SCELTA returned at Nakayama Racecourse on 9th December and finished fourth in allowance race for one time winner. I regard this form highly, as it was the first start since April and the pace of the race was not suitable for COURS SCELTA, who tracked leaders. I think he has a good chance to finish within the first four, if he re-produces his form of last start on Sunday.
SPARK IN THE EYE is my fifth choice. The 6YO gelding by RULERSHIP has finished second twice and third twice at this class. I believe he is competitive running against one time winners. While this is first start for him since April, he has been trained well at Miho Training Centre since last month and I believe he is ready to run his race.
SELECTIONS: 16. HISAME, 12. CORRIENTES, 1. CROCKFORD, 15. COURS SCELTA & 7. SPARK IN THE EYE
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 16. HISAME & 12. CORRIENTES
S1-3: Multiple – 9. WORLDS COLLIDE & 10. RURAL HAPPINESS
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 16. HISAME
Selections – 12. CORRIENTES, 1. CROCKFORD, 15. COURS SCELTA & 7. SPARK IN THE EYE
S1-3:
Banker – 9. WORLDS COLLIDE
Selections – 10. RURAL HAPPINESS, 11. Z NOVA, 12. SEIUN HARUKANI & 7. DARK'N STORMY
S1-3 Toji Tokubetsu
Toji Tokubetsu is a stakes race for two time winning 3YO and upper, conducted at 1,200m dirt course at Nakayama.
I select Godolphin’s WORLDS COLLIDE, lightly-raced 3YO colt by WAR FRONT, for whom Ryan Moore is booked on Sunday, as my favourite. His first start was the maiden at Nakayama on 8th April and he made successful racecourse debut, although margin to second finisher was only 0.8 lengths. Six weeks later, WORLDS COLLIDE won the allowance race for one time winners at Tokyo. Then, next start was a big step, as WORLDS COLLIDE’s trainer Noriyuki Hori, selected the G3 Unicorn Stakes at Tokyo on 18th June. As the competition was too tough and distance was too long, he was well-beaten there. After the Unicorn Stakes, Noriyuki Hori decided to regroup and gave him a six months break. WORLDS COLLIDE returned to racecourse on 3rd December and finished second in the stakes race for two time winners at Chukyo, to prove that he is competitive at this class.
The strongest opponent for WORLDS COLLIDE is RURAL HAPPINESS ridden by Christophe Lemaire. The 3YO filly by FINE NEEDLE is very consistent, as she started three races on dirt, won twice and finished second once. She finished second in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 5th November and I regard this form highly, as it was first start for her running against two time winners, and 1,400m was too long for her. It is obvious that 1,200m is the best trip for her and she likes the track at Nakayama, where she starts twice and won both of them.
Z NOVA is my third choice. The 4YO colt by THE FACTOR graduated the class for one time winners on 12th November 2022. Since then, he started at the class for two-time winners for 8 times, finished second for three times, and third for three times. It means we must treat him as one of the most consistent runners in this field. I am slightly worried that Z NOVA has never run at Nakayama, however, he has finished within first three at five different tracks and I believe he handles the track at Nakayama well.
SEIUN HARUKANI, who finished within the first five in the last two starts for two time winners, both of which were conducted over the same course and distance as Toji Tokubetsu, is my fourth choice. The 4YO colt by BAGO has collected two wins and both of them are races over 1,200m dirt course at Nakayama.
My fifth choice is DARK'N STORMY. The 3YO colt by SATONO ALADDIN gradated the class for one time winners at Niigata on 20th August and this is the first start for him since then. He always delivers strong late kick and I assess he is able to finish within the first five in this field.
SELECTIONS: 9. WORLDS COLLIDE, 10. RURAL HAPPINESS, 11. Z NOVA, 12. SEIUN HARUKANI & 7. DARK'N STORMY
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 9. WORLDS COLLIDE & 10. RURAL HAPPINESS
S1-4: Multiple – 11. SHINE YUNIBANSU & 5. HISHI CHOUCHOU
S1-4 Goodluck Handicap
Goodluck Handicap is a stakes race for two time winning 3YO and upper, conducted at 2,500m turf course at Nakayama, which is over the same course and distance as Arima Kinen, featured race of the day.
While the rest of the stakes race at Nakayama on 24th December are wide-open and not very easy to anticipate, Goodluck Handicap looks to be straightforward and I would like to select SHINE YUNIBANSU as my first choice with assurance. The 5YO mare by RULERSHIP has finished second in the last three races in a row at the class for two time winners. And two of them took place at the 2,500m turf course at Nakayama. It is obvious that she is the best horse in this field, and this course and distance is very suitable for her. In fact, she was not 100% fit when she finished second in the allowance race on 3rd December, as it was the first start for her since 23rd September and she needed the race. She has been trained in the morning at Miho Training Centre much better now than the previous start. And Ryan Moore is booked for SHINE YUNIBANSU in the Goodluck Handicap, and I believe she graduates this class on Sunday.
My second choice is HISHI CHOUCHOU, who finished fourth in the allowance race over the same course and distance as this race on 3rd December. I regard this form highly as it was the first start for her since 30th July. In fact, the second finisher in her last start was SHINE YUNIBANSU, my favourite in Goodluck Handicap. I assess HISHI CHOUCHOU has a good chance to finish within the first two in this field.
GEOFRONT, who finished third in this race twelve months ago, is my third choice. The 5YO horse by HEART’S CRY finished second in the stakes race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race in April, and I believe 2,500m turf course at Nakayama is his favourite. While this is the first start for him since 30th July, he has been trained well at Ritto Training Centre and he is enjoying the recent cold weather. I believe he is ready to run his race on Sunday and has a good chance to finish within the first three.
My fourth choice is KINDLICH, who finished fourth in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race in September. The 4YO colt by GOLD SHIP has started at Nakayama eleven times, won twice, and finished second for four times. I understand Nakayama is his favourite track.
My fifth choice is HO O SUNDAY, who graduated the class for one time winners at Nakayama on 1st October. Though this is the first time for him to run against two time winners, I assess he has an ability to finish within the first five here.
SELECTIONS: 11. SHINE YUNIBANSU, 5. HISHI CHOUCHOU, 8. GEOFRONT, 13. KINDLICH & 6. HO O SUNDAY
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 11. SHINE YUNIBANSU & 5. HISHI CHOUCHOU
S1-5: Multiple – 3. SOUTHERN STATE & 10. CONTRAPPOSTO
S1-5 Christmas Cup
Christmas Cup is the stakes race for two time winning 3YO and upper, is conducted at 1,600m turf course at Nakayama.
My favourite is SOUTHERN STATE. He graduated the class for one time winners at Nakayama on 10th September and finished second in the stakes race for two time winners at Nakayama on 24th September. The latter was a good effort and I thought the 4YO colt by AMERICAN PATRIOT would graduate the class for two time winners soon. However, SOUTHERN STATE was beaten nineth in the allowance race for two time winners at Nakayama on 10th December. I understand there were two reasons why he ran poorly. Firstly, it was the first start for him since 24th September and he needed the race. Secondly, he had a traffic problem on homestretch and could not have a smooth run. I am not surprised if SOUTHERN STATE graduates this class on Sunday.
My second choice is CONTRAPPOSTO. This 3YO colt has started only seven times and finished within first four in all seven starts. I regard his form in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 25th November highly, as it was the first start for CONTRAPPOSTO in the class for two time winners and the competition was quite tough. CONTRAPPOSTO won the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as Christmas Cup and I judge this is his favourite track.
My third choice is SAAI ROANG, who finished second in the allowance for two time winners at Tokyo on 25th November. While the 4YO gelding by DEEP IMPACT is not a consistent horse as there is a temperament issue, he is good on his day. If he re-produces his form as last start on Sunday, I believe he has a good chance to finish within the first three.
My fourth choice is STUNNING STAR. The British-bred filly has a gorgeous pedigree on her background, as her sire is mighty FRANKEL and her dam is STACELITA, winner of six G1s in France and USA. And she is full-sister to SOUL STIRRING, JRA Champion Filly at 2 and 3. To be honest, her race record so far is disappointing, however, I think she has shown a part of her hidden ability when she finished second in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 15th October. While light weight, 117lbs, and rain-softened ground might help her, strong pace was not suitable for her who tracked leaders from third position and finished only neck behind the winner. I have seen a lot of well-bred runners improved dramatically in short term.
LYRA STAR is my fifth choice. The 4YO gelding finished within the first four in the three starts in a row this spring, although the race surface were dirt. Though this is the first start for him since 12th August, he has been trained well since last month at Miho Training Centre and I believe he is ready to run his race on Sunday.
SELECTIONS: 3. SOUTHERN STATE, 10. CONTRAPPOSTO, 16. SAAI ROANG, 9. STUNNING STAR & 4. LYRA STAR
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 3. SOUTHERN STATE & 10. CONTRAPPOSTO
S1-6: Multiple – 1. SOL ORIENS & 16. STARS ON EARTH
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 3. SOUTHERN STATE
Selections – 10. CONTRAPPOSTO, 16. SAAI ROANG, 9. STUNNING STAR & 4. LYRA STAR
S1-6:
Banker – 1. SOL ORIENS
Selections – 16. STARS ON EARTH, 15. THROUGH SEVEN SEAS, 13. TASTIERA & 2. SHAHRYAR
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 3. SOUTHERN STATE, 10. CONTRAPPOSTO & 16. SAAI ROANG
S1-6: Multiple – 1. SOL ORIENS, 16. STARS ON EARTH & 15. THROUGH SEVEN SEAS
S1-7: Multiple – 3. TAISEI BRILLIO, 13. URAKAWANO KISEKI & 4. REVEUR
S1-6 Arima Kinen
While runners in G1 Arima Kinen are selected thorough ballot by horse racing fans, neither the horse who received the most votes nor the horse who received the second most votes are included in the field of Arima Kinen at Nakayama on 24th December. As you know, EQUINOX, the world-highest rated horse who received 342,637 votes, has run his last race and starts his next career as a stallion in 2024, and LIBERTY ISLAND, winner of Triple Crown for 3YO fillies in 2023, who received 327,184 votes, has started to enjoy her winter holiday. Hence, Arima Kinen this year is wide-open.
My favourite is SOL ORIENS, 3YO colt by KITASAN BLACK who won the G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) at Nakayama on 16th April. His performance in the first leg of Triple Crown for 3YOs was very impressive and I still regard him as the best horse in current 3YO colts. Though he was beaten third in G1 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) at Kyoto on 22nd October last time out, I didn’t think the jockey gave SOL ORIENS a particularly good ride and I believe jockey’s change from Takeshi Yokoyama to Yuga Kawada should work well.
My second favourite is STARS ON EARTH, winner of the first and second leg of Triple Crown for 3YO fillies in 2022. I regard her performance in the G1 Japan Cup at Tokyo on 26th November highly, as it was the first start for the 4YO filly by DURAMENTE since G1 Victoria Mile at Tokyo on 14th May. In fact, she suffered bruised foot a few days before G1 Tenno Sho Autumn at Tokyo on 29th October and lost a couple of training days, therefore, fitness of STARS ON EARTH was only 80% on the day of Japan Cup. Her condition has improved significantly since then and I am sure STARS ON EARTH should run much better on coming Sunday.
Another attractive female horse in the field is THROUGH SEVEN SEAS. She was narrowly beaten by great EQUINOX in the G1 Takarazuka Kinen at Hanshin on 25th June and finished fourth to ACE IMPACT in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp on 1st October. If she re-produces those form on Sunday, I am sure she has a good chance to finish within the first three. Nakayama is her favourite track, as she has collected all four wins at Nakayama.
My fourth choice is TASTIERA, winner of the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) at Tokyo on 28th May. He had a short break at Shigaraki Branch of Northern Farm after finishing second in the G1 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) at Kyoto on 22nd October and returned to Noriyuki Hori’s barn at Miho Training Centre on 25th November. He has been trained very well since then and it is encouraging factor that Ryan Moore is booked for him on Sunday.
My fifth choice is SHAHRYAR. He was withdrawn from the G1 LONGINES Hong Kong Vase, after vets advised that he had a potential health issue. I understand he received the best treatment in Hong Kong and SHAHRYAR is fine after returning to Japan. As far as he is fine, I shouldn’t ignore him in the Arima Kinen.
SELECTIONS: 1. SOL ORIENS, 16. STARS ON EARTH, 15. THROUGH SEVEN SEAS, 13. TASTIERA & 2. SHAHRYAR
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 1. SOL ORIENS & 16. STARS ON EARTH
S1-7: Multiple – 3. TAISEI BRILLIO & 13. URAKAWANO KISEKI
S1-7 2023 Farewell Stakes
2023 Farewell Stakes for three time winning 3YO and upper is conducted at 1,200m dirt course at Nakayama.
I select TAISEI BRILLIO as my first choice. The 4YO colt by DEEP BRILLANTE had been mainly running the races on turf until this autumn and won three races. While he was running fine on turf, Yuki Ohashi who trains the colt decided to send him to races on dirt and this change of strategy is working well so far, as he finished second at Kyoto on 4th November and at Hanshin on 2nd December, both of which are stakes for three time winners conducted at 1,200m dirt course. TAISEI BRILLIO was settled after leaders in last two starts and has never mind the kick back, which he received on his face, caused by the leaders. Although he has never run at Nakayama, he is an experienced shipper as he has run at six different tracks, and I believe he can run his race at Nakayama.
My second favourite is URAKAWANO KISEKI. She finished within the first three in four stakes races for three time winners in a row since March through September this year. The 4YO filly by HENNY HUGHES was very consistent and it was likely that she would graduate this class soon, however, she was beaten 11th in her last start over 1,150m at Fukushima on 4th November. I analyze there was an excuse for her, as she failed to jump quicky and the race finished for her soon after the break. I understand I should forget about this poor performance in last start. Nakayama is her favourite track as she has started there for six times, won three of them, and finished second twice.
My third choice is REVEUR. The 4YO filly by TRANSCEND had been running races further than 1,400m, and won two races over 1,600m, Michihiro Ogasa, who trains her, decided to send her races over shorter distance this autumn and this change of strategy is working well so far, as she finished second in the allowance race for two time winners at Nakayama on 10th September and won the allowance race for two time winners at Nayakama on 30th September, both of which are races over 1,200m. It looks she is comfortable running the races of this distance and 1,200m dirt course at Nakayama should be suitable for REVEUR.
SOUTHERN ELF, who finished within the first four in the last three starts at this class, is my fourth choice. If the 4YO filly by PYRO re-produces those form on Sunday, I believe she has every chance to finish within the first four here.
VENT DE LION is my fifth choice. The American-bred 6YO finished third in the allowance race for three time winners over the same course and distance as Farewell Stakes on 16th September. Although he was beaten 6th in his last start on 1st October, he dwelt out of stalls and could not do his race. I think he has a chance to finish within the first five here.
SELECTIONS: 3. TAISEI BRILLIO, 13. URAKAWANO KISEKI, 4. REVEUR, 12. SOUTHERN ELF & 8. VENT DE LION
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