Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Nakayama Racecourse – Track Analysis (Arima Kinen Day):

Nakayama is a clockwise oval track with two routes for turf course - the inner track and the outer track, and a dirt course. The outer track branches off from the inner track at the exit of near turn and rejoins the inner track at the entrance of the far turn. The homestretches for the turf course and dirt course are 310m and 308m respectively. Meanwhile, it is the tendency at Nakayama that the tempo is picked up at the middle of the far turn, and the runners who hold endurance and stamina enjoy better results than runners who hold sharp turn of foot.

This year, four turf races and three dirt races from the Arima Kinen Day will be simulcast to Hong Kong.

The Goodluck Handicap and the feature race Arima Kinen are over 2500m on turf. The starting gate for both races is set on the outer turf track at 100m before rejoining to inner turf track. Runners will enter the far turn which lasts for 600m right after the break. Although the turns at Nakayama are famous for its sharpness and horses drawing high number will easily be parked wide, with the customary slow pace at this course in the early stages, they still have plenty of time to find the favourable position when travelling the homestretch for the first time. Therefore, barriers are of less importance. Besides, it is worth noting that there is a sudden upslope in the final 200m which is absolutely a disadvantage to front runners, but given the 310m short homestretch, runners who track leaders closely tend to enjoy better results than closers.

The outer turf track is used for both 1600m 2yo Newcomer and the Christmas Cup. Starting gate for both races are set in the chute of the near turn. The field will only run for 240m straight before the first turn. As a result, outside drawn runners are easily put in disadvantage and need extra effort to find an ideal position. It is a tendency at this course that front runners and runners who track leaders closely enjoy better result than closers.

For the dirt races, runners of the 1800m 3yo and up 1 win will break from the top of the homestretch. There is no specific draw bias, front runners and runners who track leaders closely enjoy better result over this distance. And "power" and "stamina" work well here, rather than "speed" and "turn of foot". As for the starting gate of the 1200m Toji Tokubetsu and 2023 Farewell Stakes is set on the turf track, runners who start from wide draw runs a longer distance on turf than runners who start from inside draw. The pace tends to be strong over this distance.

Last year's Arima Kinen contested on good ground with 16 runners. TITLEHOLDER hit the front soon after the break. The hot favourite EQUINOX was settled at ninth position. At the three furlong pole, EQUINOX started to make up ground, while the jockey Christophe Lemaire in the irons was motionless, and hit the front at top of homestretch. While Christophe started to drive, EQUINOX responded well and draw clear to win by two and half length. BOLDOG HOS delivered the strong challenge on homestretch and finished second while TITLEHOLDER just finished ninth.

Winter meeting at Nakayama started on 2nd December. The Arima Kinen Day is on 24th December, which is the eighth day at current racing period and turf track keeps good cushion. For the weather forecast, there may be a little rain on 20th December. However, it will not affect the condition of the turf track, and the going on the race day is likely to be Good.

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