 Expert - Jack Milner | |
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| Veteran journalist Jack Milner has been involved in horseracing since 1972. From then on he followed the sport closely so in 2006 when he was offered the position with Phumelela Gaming & Leisure as Managing Editor of their Publishing Department, he jumped at the chance. He is also instrumental in sending tips and previews to international customers who subscribe to South African racing. Milner is known to be an astute studier of form who reads a race very well. He is one of the leading tipsters in the country where he has a big following. He has attended international events such as the English Derby and Oaks, Royal Ascot and the Melbourne Cup. | |
Expert Column for Cape Town Met Day (S1) (Jack Milner)
S1-1 Summer Juvenile Stakes
This is the first feature race for juveniles and many of them are improving at different rates. Only six of the horses have won a race and there are also three unraced runners in the field.
Based on their current form LION RAMPART looks the line horse in this event and he sets the standard. The son of ONE WORLD finished a 1.2 length fourth on debut and then won his next start convincingly, beating ROMAN AGENT by 1.75 lengths. LION RAMPART has a top jockey up in Richard Fourie, who rode him to victory last time, and is well drawn in barrier 2.
ROMAN AGENT, one of two runners from the Justin Snaith yard, went on to win his next start in a workmanlike manner. However, he is bred in the purple and has first-choice jockey Grant van Niekerk in the irons.
SWEETIE DARLING won on debut and then finished a 1.25 length third behind ROMAN AGENT. This time, getting the fillies’ weight allowance, the Glen Kotzen-trained runner is 5lbs better off and that should bring them a lot closer.
ALL IS GREEN is an interesting runner. She was fancied to win on debut but ran poorly, mainly due to the fact that she did not seem sure of what she had to do. However, the CAPTAIN OF ALL filly turned it around completely. She was always up with the pace and kicked on smartly to win by 0.5 lengths. This Greg Ennion-trained filly could make further improvement to be a contender in this company.
Originally a reserve runner, WINDS OF CHANGE only got into the final field when PROCEED was scratched. This WHAT A WINTER colt, trained by M G Azzie / A A Azzie, is beautifully bred. The Azzies feel he might need the experience but he moves into barrier 1, has Muzi Yeni in the irons and could upset his more experienced rivals.
SELECTIONS: 2. LION RAMPART, 8. ROMAN AGENT, 15. SWEETIE DARLING, 11. ALL IS GREEN & 17. WINDS OF CHANGE
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 2. LION RAMPART & 8. ROMAN AGENT
S1-2: Multiple – 19. HANDSOME PRINCE & 6. TALK TO THE MASTER
S1-2 Cape Slipper
As the only runner in the field of 20 with a victory to his name, HANDSOME PRINCE goes into this 1,200m contest as the clear favourite, and rightly so.
Because of the enormous stakes on offer in this race, trainers are throwing everything they have into the pot, hence the big field, although half the contestants are unraced.
TALK TO THE MASTER impressed on debut when second to HANDSOME PRINCE by just 1.5 lengths and could reverse the result with that experience gained and with Richard Fourie in the saddle. The jockey is leading the jockey championship title race and has made no secret of the fact that he aims to record a record number of winners this season.
DUCHESS OF PALOMA showed a lot of heart when finishing just over a length behind ALL IS GREEN on debut. Gutsy, she is expected to make a podium appearance in this field.
Another runner with race experience is SORCERESS SUPREME, who is definitely in with a place chance after finishing third on debut. Stripping fitter and with race experience, improvement is expected.
HEMISPHERE showed good speed in his only run, but tired late. If his fitness is up to standard, he could be a serious contender at a very good price. Jockey Aldo Domeyer is sure to get the best out of this VERCINGETORIX colt if employing somewhat aggressive riding tactics.
With so many unraced runners in the field, it is advised to keep a close eye on the betting as it could provide a good indication of expectations.
SELECTIONS: 19. HANDSOME PRINCE, 6. TALK TO THE MASTER, 10. DUCHESS OF PALOMA, 9. SORCERESS SUPREME & 18. HEMISPHERE
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 19. HANDSOME PRINCE & 6. TALK TO THE MASTER
S1-3: Multiple – 8. GREEN WITH ENVY & 9. CALL TO UNITE
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 19. HANDSOME PRINCE
Selections – 6. TALK TO THE MASTER, 10. DUCHESS OF PALOMA, 9. SORCERESS SUPREME & 18. HEMISPHERE
S1-3:
Banker – 8. GREEN WITH ENVY
Selections – 9. CALL TO UNITE, 10. HAT’S PRIDE, 12. BLUE BAY & 6. GET IMPRESSED
S1-3 Politician Stakes
This race for 3YOs over 1,800m is often viewed as a Derby Trial but the truth is the genuine Cape Derby contenders rarely contest this event.
However, that is likely to change this year because GREEN WITH ENVY has by far the best form in this field. His last race was in the G1 Cape Guineas over 1,600m at this course and from a wide draw, always a concern over 1,600m, he produced the fastest final 400m to finish a 2.05 length fourth behind SNOW PILOT. In addition, his bad luck included a bump at the start which resulted in his turning for home at the back of the field. A race earlier, in the G2 Cape Punters Cup over the same course and distance, he finished third, just 0.45 lengths behind winner HLUHLUWE with Guineas winner SNOW PILOT just a short head in front of him in second place. This time GREEN WITH ENVY drops in class, goes the additional 200m, and is a strong favourite to pick up his first graded victory. He is drawn at gate 8 this time, which is less of a concern over this distance, is trained by Dean Kannemeyer and will have Craig Zackey back in the irons.
CALL TO UNITE comes from the in-form team of trainer Justin Snaith and jockey Grant van Niekerk and this is an improving 3YO. This gelding has raced four times for a win and three places and did run a decent run against older horses last time in a handicap when a 1.75 length second behind battle-hardened GENTLEMAN JOE. He does take a big jump in class but has the ability to improve further.
HAT’S PRIDE is a two-time winner and also showed up well in the G1 Cape Guineas when finishing fifth, but 2.25 lengths behind GREEN WITH ENVY and looks unlikely to reverse the form. In addition, he tries 1,800m for the first time.
BLUE BAY is still a maiden and tries this trip, but he is well bred, carries just 119 pounds and trainer Brett Crawford is unlikely to have raced him in this unless he felt his charge could compete.
GET IMPRESSED is another Snaith runner who has consistent form but is untried over the trip. However, Snaith has engaged S’manga Khumalo for the ride and this gelding could place.
SELECTIONS: 8. GREEN WITH ENVY, 9. CALL TO UNITE, 10. HAT’S PRIDE, 12. BLUE BAY & 6. GET IMPRESSED
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 8. GREEN WITH ENVY & 9. CALL TO UNITE
S1-4: Multiple – 6. QUASIFORSURE & 4. AT MY COMMAND
S1-4 Cape A Stakes
A Class A stakes race over 1,400m sees AT MY COMMAND top the bookmakers’ boards, however, it is QUASIFORSURE who makes most appeal.
This 5YO goes into the race highly confident after two excellent runs this season. He races over his best distance, with four wins and a runner-up finish from five starts over the distance, he will take a ton of beating. He has won with carrying heavy weight with him before, so the big boy knows how to handle it.
AT MY COMMAND is on paper the one to beat, but don’t be surprised if he plays second fiddle again. He is struggling to turn consistent form into victories. He has placed for several times without a gold medal in graded races. It has also been over a year since his last victory. Amazingly, his Merit Rating has increased by 18 points without him winning a single race.
SILVER OPERATOR loves the course and distance, as attested by his record of five wins from six runs over the course and distance, including last time out. A G2 and G3 winner he’s back with a bang and will challenge despite having turned 7YO at the start of the season.
UNDERWORLD, on the other hand, is just 3YO, but looks a highly progressive sort. This 3YO will give the rest a run for their money if overcoming his wide draw. Goes into the race in top condition, beaten less than a length in his last two. Jockey Juan Paul V’D Merwe has been conscripted by Justin Snaith to ride and the combination is sure to attract a lot of market support.
SELECTIONS: 6. QUASIFORSURE,4. AT MY COMMAND,11. SILVER OPERATOR & 13. UNDERWORLD
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 6. QUASIFORSURE & 4. AT MY COMMAND
S1-5: Multiple – 5. WINTER CLOUD & 12. SHANTASTIC
S1-5 Olympic Duel Stakes
WINTER CLOUD was one of the top 2YO fillies and even started her 3YO career with a victory. But she followed that up with a real shocker at Durbanville over 1,400m. Nothing was detected by the course vet but this Candice Bass-Robinson-trained daughter of WHAT A WINTER improved in her next start, the G2 Sceptre Stakes over this course and distance, when a 1.70 length fifth behind well-backed stablemate OCTOBER MORN. If WINTER CLOUD is at her best, she will be hard to beat in this field. She is reunited with jockey Aldo Domeyer who tends to get the first picks from the yard and that could be an indication her trainer is happy with her current form.
SHANTASTIC finished a short head in front of WINTER CLOUD in the G2 Sceptre Stakes but is now carrying heavier weight and could find it hard to sustain that form line. This RAFEEF filly also performed well in the G2 Southern Cross Stakes when, going off at high odds and ridden by Piere Strydom, she went down 0.3 lengths to KWINTA’S LIGHT. This time Craig Zackey takes the ride for trainer Dean Kannemeyer.
DISTANT WINTER is the second runner from the Candice Bass-Robinson yard and she is not out of this event. While she has been racing over further, it is worth noting her two wins were over 1,200m and 1,100m respectively. Her last outing was in the G1 Cape Fillies Guineas where she finished sixth, beaten by 5.2 lengths, and this daughter of WHAT A WINTER might enjoy the drop in trip. Gareth Wright takes the ride.
HUNTING TRIP is one of the five runners from the Justin Snaith yard and the daughter TRIPPI will have to be at her best if she is to be victorious in this event. She does look held on her run in the G2 Southern Cross Stakes but his last run was against the best sprinters in the country and perhaps should be ignored.
PACIFIC GREEN is another Snaith runner with a chance. She did pull off a surprise win at high odds last time and could run into the money if not outclassed.
SELECTIONS: 5. WINTER CLOUD, 12. SHANTASTIC, 2. DISTANT WINTER, 3. HUNTING TRIP & 4. PACIFIC GREEN
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 5. WINTER CLOUD & 12. SHANTASTIC
S1-6: Multiple – 8. THUNDERSTRUCK & 9. ISIVUNGUVUNGU
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 5. WINTER CLOUD
Selections – 12. SHANTASTIC, 2. DISTANT WINTER, 3. HUNTING TRIP & 4. PACIFIC GREEN
S1-6:
Banker – 8. THUNDERSTRUCK
Selections – 9. ISIVUNGUVUNGU, 4. DYCE, 6. BEREAVE & 11. SURJAY
S1-6 World Pool Cape Flying Championship
This 1,000m straight sprint is always one of the highlights on Met Day and usually over in a flash as the top sprinters go to war. This year, four excellent raiders are added to the fray, which ensures that this event will not disappoint. Highveld-based DYCE, THUNDERSTRUCK and BARTHOLDI as well as ISIVUNGUVUNGU will be aiming to send the local contingent home with their tails between their legs and it won’t come as a surprise if they succeed.
THUNDERSTRUCK, trained by Sean Tarry, is perfectly primed to complete a hat-trick after his last victory came over the course and distance. He has taken to the Kenilworth course like a duck to water, making this son of RAFEEF the one to beat, regardless of what bookmakers say. As an added bonus, Piere Strydom will be riding, and fans worldwide regard his victory aboard JJ THE JET PLANE in the Hong Kong Sprint in 2010 as one of the best rides in the history of the game.
Reigning Equus Sprinter of the Year ISIVUNGUVUNGU has everything in his favour, except his record at the track, where he is yet to score despite three attempts. Definitely a massive runner, he has to get to grips with Kenilworth. It does help that he has Richard Fourie in the saddle as the jockey knows the track like the back of his hand. Trainer Peter Muscutt also has an international pedigree of note having been “foreman” to Australian Chris Waller when he was training the great WINX.
The Lucky Houdalakis-trained DYCE will not be a surprise winner if he pulls it off. Three wins from his last four proves he is in hot form. Has a G2 and G3 win on his resume. Now for the Grade 1.
BEREAVE, a gelding of VERCINGETORIX, could also snatch it and pay a bomb. Trained by local lad Adam Marcus, the 6YO tried his luck in this race two years back when beaten by BOHICA. He is in with a chance.
Brett Crawford’s SURJAY was beaten less than a length in all of his last five, so has the form to challenge, but 1,000m looks just a tad sharp. He should, however, improve on his sixth-place last year.
SELECTIONS: 8. THUNDERSTRUCK, 9. ISIVUNGUVUNGU, 4. DYCE, 6. BEREAVE & 11. SURJAY
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 8. THUNDERSTRUCK & 9. ISIVUNGUVUNGU
S1-7: Multiple – 5. PRINCESS CALLA & 11. BEACH BOMB
S1-7 Majorca Stakes
PRINCESS CALLA is the reigning Equus Horse Of The Year in South Africa but she has not had a great run in Cape Town this year. However, the Sean Tarry-trained mare can turn it all around in this race. Last time, in the G1 Paddock Stakes, she looked a winner going into the closing stages, but she is suspect over 1,800m and got collared close home by BEACH BOMB to go down by 0.3 lengths. This time she reverts to 1,600m and that should be right up her street. As a result, with Richard Fourie in the irons, the 6YO daughter of FLOWER ALLEY should notch up her 12th career victory and her fifth G1 title.
Candice Bass-Robinson-trained BEACH BOMB is undoubtedly the official new kid on the block and has really come to hand during the summer. She came from last to capture the G1 Cape Fillies Guineas and again ran on strongly to snare PRINCESS CALLA in the G1 Paddock Stakes. She certainly has the breeding as her mother, BEACH BEAUTY, won the Paddock Stakes back-to-back for successive two years. In total BEACH BOMB has won four of her six starts and for the second time in a row, will have Juan Paul V’D Merwe in the irons.
RED PALACE was withdrawn at the start of the Fillies Guineas as she was intractable, so Candice Bass-Robinson decided to put her against the colts in the G1 Cape Guineas. She very nearly pulled it off and was only caught close home by SNOW PILOT. She found the pace in the G1 Paddock Stakes too slow and started to over race. She also may have found 1,800m a touch far. The opposition would be wise not to let this filly give them the slip early in the straight as she could be hard to catch.
MAKE IT SNAPPY pulled off the G1 Cape Fillies Guineas and G1 Paddock Stakes double last year but then got injured in the G1 Cape Town Met and has not raced since. Trainer Brett Crawford says she is working very well but it would be a superb training feat if he pulls it off.
Crawford also has HAPPY CHANCE in the field and while she has been consistent of late, she has not won since May last year.
SELECTIONS: 5. PRINCESS CALLA, 11. BEACH BOMB, 4. RED PALACE, 6. MAKE IT SNAPPY & 2. HAPPY CHANCE
7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 5. PRINCESS CALLA & 11. BEACH BOMB
S1-8: Multiple – 10. BAVARIAN BEAUTY & 4. SUNSHINE DAY
S1-8 Gold Rush
The stakes on offer in this race over 1,600m has a strong field of 3YOs will be lining up.
The Tony Peter-trained BAVARIAN BEAUTY is a G1 winner, making her the one to beat. She is best weighted so probably won’t offer much value, but with the legendary Piere Strydom in the irons, she could be a banker.
The biggest threat could come from SUNSHINE DAY, trained by J A Janse van Vuuren. She has the ability to upset and goes into the race in solid form for her new yard. She was very impressive over 1,600m towards the end of last year when beaten just 3-lengths by GIMME A NOTHER. The latter is unbeaten after four runs and is a G2 and G3 winner, so that form line is as solid as can be. Juan Paul V’D Merwe gets a rare opportunity to ride for the trainer and definitely adds to SUNSHINE DAY’s chances of success from a good draw in gate 4.
The Sean Tarry-trained TAIL OF THE COMET is another who appeals, despite unsuccessful in two runs over the course and distance. However, it must be noted that both those runs were in G1 and G2 events, where he wasn’t disgraced, so he should be a big runner in this company. Richard Fourie also add value to the deal.
Bettors looking for value in the race should take a close look at PRITTI VICTORY from the yard of Gareth van Zyl. A winner on debut over 1,200m, the form was franked with runner-up MASCHERINA winning next time out. Athandiwe Mgudlwa joins the daughter of VERCINGETORIX on her travels to Cape Town, so with a familiar jockey in the irons, she could be anything over the distance in new surroundings.
WINTER RAINFALL, trained by Candice Bass-Robinson, is the dark horse in the field. Her last two runs suggest that she is dying for some extra ground. The jockey and trainer are a formidable pair. She is attracting a lot of market support in the last couple of days.
SELECTIONS: 10. BAVARIAN BEAUTY, 4. SUNSHINE DAY, 8. TAIL OF THE COMET, 2. PRITTI VICTORY & 11. WINTER RAINFALL
8TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-8: Multiple – 10. BAVARIAN BEAUTY & 4. SUNSHINE DAY
S1-9: Multiple – 11. SEE IT AGAIN & 3. PACAYA
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-8: Multiple – 10. BAVARIAN BEAUTY, 4. SUNSHINE DAY & 8. TAIL OF THE COMET
S1-9: Multiple – 11. SEE IT AGAIN, 3. PACAYA & 13. RASCALLION
S1-10: Multiple – 3. ARAGOSTA, 13. NEBRAAS & 11. ONE WAY TRAFFIC
S1-9 Cape Town Met
SEE IT AGAIN goes into Saturday’s G1 Cape Town Met over 2,000m at Kenilworth as one of the shortest price favourites seen in many a year.
Once his main rival CHARLES DICKENS was sent off to stud, the odds of SEE IT AGAIN shortened with local bookmakers. It could be an emotional day if the 4YO colt does win as he will be ridden by veteran jockey Piere Strydom and is trained by Michael Roberts who will then join an elite group of people who have both ridden (SLEDGEHAMMER in 1975) and trained a Cape Town Met winner.
Strydom has since ridden the horse eight times, winning another four events, including the G1 Daily News 2000, and finishing second in the others. Strydom is not one for overstating his case and he tends to err on the side of caution, but there is no lack of confidence emanating from the former champion. “The draw will be of concern if the place is slow but if we get a good pace the draw won’t matter. “If all things fall into place, he should win”.
If one looks beyond SEE IT AGAIN the race is wide open. Justin Snaith has five runners and PACAYA could be the best of the quintet. He showed his well-being by finishing a close-up third in two Graded features and is better off at the weights with all the runners who finished in front of him. Juan Paul V'D Merwe takes the ride and jumps from barrier 3.
RASCALLION is an outsider but is a decent 6YO and has had two very good warm-up races. He is trained by Vaughan Marshall and will be ridden by Bernard Fayd’Herbe, each of whom has won this race three times.
Snaith also has MUCHO DINERO and ROYAL AUSSIE and both could place.
MUCHO DINERO takes a jump in class and may struggle to beat the likes of PACAYA who is weighted to turnaround the outcome.
ROYAL AUSSIE ran third in the G1 King’s Plate, coming from last finish 1.25 lengths behind SEE IT AGAIN. On form he is unlikely to turn the tables, especially over the extra distance.
SELECTIONS: 11. SEE IT AGAIN, 3. PACAYA, 13. RASCALLION, 6. MUCHO DINERO & 8. ROYAL AUSSIE
9TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-9: Multiple – 11. SEE IT AGAIN & 3. PACAYA
S1-10: Multiple – 3. ARAGOSTA & 13. NEBRAAS
S1-10 Western Cape Stayers
ARAGOSTA, from the yard of Mike de Kock, was a rather surprising winner of the Listed Cape Summer Stayers Handicap over 2,500m at Kenilworth just seven days after running in the G1 Summer Cup on the Highveld. A G1 winner thanks to his achievement in the SA Derby as a 3YO, he has taken his time to mature and now looks to reward connections for their patience. Richard Fourie has been aboard for three of his five career wins and will be in charge again. The jockey and horse combo have an impeccable record, never finishing outside prize money in 8 outings together.
The biggest threat could come from fellow Highveld raider NEBRAAS, trained by Sean Tarry. He goes into this on the back of two very good prep runs and if building on that, has winning credentials.
Justin Snaith’s ONE WAY TRAFFIC is one of the favourites of this race, however, he does seem to get himself stuck in a traffic jam too often. However, a bit of road rage has seen him tagged the fastest finisher in his last two. Expect another flying finish and a podium finish is a given. ONE WAY TRAFFIC looks to be the one with most to gain should the pace be on the slow side.
MASTER REDOUTE is another highly talented, but equally erratic runner. The 5YO is carded to race without blinkers for the first time in more than two years. The distance might be right at the end of his limit.
TRIPLE TIME, stable companion to ONE WAY TRAFFIC, tried the marathon distance for the first time last time out and finished runner-up. Expectations were rather high for him and he ran well. He will probably attract a lot of market support.
SELECTIONS: 3. ARAGOSTA, 13. NEBRAAS, 11. ONE WAY TRAFFIC, 5. MASTER REDOUTE & 4. TRIPLE TIME
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