 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Saudi Cup Day (S3) (Bill Esdaile)
S3-1 Saudi International Handicap
This competitive Saudi International Handicap run over 2,100m on the turf course at King Abdulaziz Racecourse. SILAWI is an interesting runner having produced a career best last time out in the G1 Jebel Hatta over 1,800m at Meydan. He didn’t quite have the pace to get involved there, so this step back up in trip looks to be in his favour. It’s a significant drop-in class for the son of DUBAWI, who also ran a good race in Group company when narrowly missing out in the G3 Prix du Lys over 2,400m in France last year, so he warrants plenty of respect at this level.
Saudi-based trainer Jimmy Jerkens looks to have a chance of securing a win for the locals with MY FRANKEL, who won the domestic G1 The Crown Prince Cup over 2,400m on his last start in December. While that came on the dirt track, this son of FRANKEL has plenty of form on turf, including when finishing a narrow third in this race at the 2022 edition. He should come into this meeting with plenty of confidence following his win last time and could run well with top US rider John Velazquez in the saddle.
Bahrain-based trainer Fawzi Nass won this race last year and has a chance of repeating the feat with THE COVEX KID. He’s had a run over this course and distance already, finishing a good third in the Prince Khalid Abdullah Cup over 2,100m. He looked to hold a winning chance turning into the straight, only to fade at the finish, but will be primed for this and should be well positioned from his draw in stall two.
Christophe Soumillon takes the ride on the lightly-raced AUSTRAL, who has been highly consistent during his career so far having finished outside of placings just two times from eight starts. He stretched clear to win in good style by three lengths over 1,400m at Saint-Cloud in June, giving the impression he would do better still when upped in distance. He could go well.
KING SHALAA finished just ahead of MY FRANKEL in the 2022 edition of this race, before finishing ninth in last year’s renewal. Alban De Mieulle’s runner has had an identical preparation to last year and could run another solid race in his third attempt in this contest.
SELECTIONS: 8. SILAWI, 3. MY FRANKEL, 5. THE COVEX KID, 9. AUSTRAL & 7. KING SHALAA
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-1: Multiple – 8. SILAWI & 3. MY FRANKEL
S3-2: Multiple – 6. FOREVER YOUNG & 5. BOOK'EM DANNO
S3-2 Saudi Derby
If there is one potential superstar in the line-up for the G3 Saudi Derby over 1,600m, then it’s more than likely to be FOREVER YOUNG. Trained by Yoshito Yahagi, the winner of last year’s Saudi Cup with PANTHALASSA, the 3YO has won all three of his career starts. The most impressive of those came last time in the Zen Nippon Nisai Yushun over 1,600m, Japan's championship race for 2YOs, where he scored emphatically by seven lengths. It was a performance that earned him the highest ever rating for a 2YO on the dirt in Japan and FOREVER YOUNG looks the one to beat here.
BOOK’EM DANNO could be the one to follow him home. The son of BUCCHERO won the Smoke Glacken Stakes over 1,200m and the Listed Futurity Stakes over 1,200m last year, and began life as a 3YO with victory in the Pasco Stakes over 1,400m. He was very impressive there winning by 12.5 lengths and he looks a solid contender here.
Japan looks to hold a very strong hand in the race with SET UP another fancied to go well. Trained by Yuichi Shikato, the 3YO colt by DECLARATION OF WAR has won two of his four starts, including the G3 Sapporo Nisai Stakes over 1,800m at Sapporo last year. Subsequently he ran in the G1 Asahi Hai Futurity Stakes over 1,600m and while he finished seventh, he was only beaten just 3.3 lengths so it wasn’t a bad run at all. There probably isn’t as much strength in depth in this contest and he could run well at a likely decent price.
Another who falls into that category is SATONO PHOENIX. The son of HENNY HUGHES was last seen finishing a fair way behind FOREVER YOUNG in the aforementioned Zen Nippon Nisai Yushun. He might have been over 12 lengths behind the winner, but he ran on nicely at the end of the contest and there could be more to come.
The placings can be completed by BENTORNATO. He won his first four starts and while he was a bit disappointing in the FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes over 1,700m last time, he’s better than that.
SELECTIONS: 6. FOREVER YOUNG, 5. BOOK'EM DANNO, 12. SET UP, 10. SATONO PHOENIX & 4. BENTORNATO
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-2: Multiple – 6. FOREVER YOUNG & 5. BOOK'EM DANNO
S3-3: Multiple – 8. REMAKE & 1. BOLD JOURNEY
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S3-2:
Banker – 6. FOREVER YOUNG
Selections – 5. BOOK'EM DANNO, 12. SET UP, 10. SATONO PHOENIX & 4. BENTORNATO
S3-3:
Banker – 8. REMAKE
Selections – 1. BOLD JOURNEY, 9. SKELLY, 10. TUZ & 5. KEIAI DORIE
S3-3 Riyadh Dirt Sprint
Classy international sprinters gather for this G3 Riyadh Dirt Sprint over 1,200m.
REMAKE, trained in Japan by Koichi Shintani, was third in this race last year and he is a consistent type who has won the G3 Korea Sprint in September. He arrives here in good form, having finished second on his last start in the local G1 JBC Sprint, and he’s fairly drawn in stall six. Japanese-trained horses tend to do well at The Saudi Cup meeting too.
US-trained BOLD JOURNEY is a 5YO and won the G3 Fall Highweight Handicap over 1,200m at Aqueduct’s fast ground. A draw in stall eight is not ideal, but he has won two races from wide draws in the past and he should be in the mix.
Steven Asmussen’s SKELLY has won the last five starts over 1,200m in the US comfortably, all on dirt tracks. One of the races was the G3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap, but in comparison to many of his rivals in this race, SKELLY is relatively unexposed at this level. His wide draw in 10 won’t make things easy, but this gelding should still have the ability to run a competitive race.
7YO TUZ has won three races on Meydan’s dirt track, a course he has consistently performed well at throughout his career, especially on his last start, when he landed the G3 Dubawi Stakes over 1,200m by an impressive 8.5 lengths. He comes here in very good form and has more experience in races like this, but he does have a wide draw of 11 to overcome. The top-rated runner in this race, he has more than enough ability to go well.
Another Japanese-trained runner, KEIAI DORIE, might be able to pick up some of the prize money. He is a versatile type, having won over 1,200m and 1,400m, including a local G3 race over 1,200m in June last year. He ran very well on reappearance in December when only narrowly beaten in the local G3 at Sonoda and has the scope to improve here.
SELECTIONS: 8. REMAKE, 1. BOLD JOURNEY, 9. SKELLY, 10. TUZ & 5. KEIAI DORIE
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-3: Multiple – 8. REMAKE & 1. BOLD JOURNEY
S3-4: Multiple – 1. AGURI & 10. MYSTERIOUS NIGHT
S3-4 1351 Turf Sprint
Japan have won the last two renewals of the G2 1351 Turf Sprint and AGURI holds strong claims of giving them a third straight success. Having finished third in the G2 Hanshin Cup over 1,400m and second in the G3 Silk Road Stakes over 1,200m at Kyoto from wide draws, AGURI looks set for another bold bid for trainer Takayuki Yasuda. In a race which suits those with low draws, the CARAVAGGIO’s son appears to have plenty in his favour housed in gate two on his preferred quick surface. Two years ago jockey Christophe Lemaire won this race aboard SONGLINE, who like AGURI was drawn in gate two.
Fellow Japanese raider BATHRAT LEON will be expected to give another bold account in his bid to register back-to-back wins in the race. The Yoshito Yahagi-trained horse has not won in five starts since securing a front running success in this race 12 months ago. Having made all from gate 7 last year, he will find it harder getting to the lead from gate 10.
MYSTERIOUS NIGHT should run a big race for trainer Charlie Appleby, who claimed the 2021 renewal with SPACE BLUES. MYSTERIOUS NIGHT won two 1,400m races at Meydan in his last two starts, including the G2 Al Fahidi Fort. Given MYSTERIOUS NIGHT likes to race prominently, the draw in gate nine could have been kinder, but with his stamina assured over further, he should finish off well.
There has yet to be an Irish-trained winner of the race, but MATILDA PICOTTE will bid to change that. Last sighted winning the G2 Challenge Stakes over 1,400m at Newmarket in October on soft ground, the Kieran Cotter-trained filly will race on quick ground for the first time since the G2 Sandy Lane Stakes over 1,200m in May. A wide draw in gate 14 might not be ideal, but MATILDA PICOTTE is clearly a filly on the upgrade despite conditions being quicker than what she is used to.
Of the remaining runners, the Eve Johnson Houghton-trained JUMBY is of interest on his first start since being gelded. A winner of the G3 John of Gaunt Stakes over 1,434m on quick ground in June, he could be well placed in gate six to give a good account of himself.
SELECTIONS: 1. AGURI, 10. MYSTERIOUS NIGHT, 4. BATHRAT LEON, 14. MATILDA PICOTTE & 8. JUMBY
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-4: Multiple – 1. AGURI & 10. MYSTERIOUS NIGHT
S3-5: Multiple – 9. LUXEMBOURG & 10. SPIRIT DANCER
S3-5 Neom Turf Cup
LUXEMBOURG looks head and shoulders above his rivals in the 2100m G2 Neom Turf Cup. Aidan O’Brien’s Irish raider went agonisingly close to landing the G1 LONGINES Hong Kong Cup over 2,000m when beaten just a short-head by ROMANTIC WARRIOR at Sha Tin in December. It came three months after he had finished runner-up behind stablemate AUGUSTE RODIN in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes over 2,000m at Leopardstown in September. He has got the widest draw in gate 13 for the G2 Neom Turf Cup but he is tactically versatile. Ryan Moore rode him patiently from another unhelpful draw when touched off in the Hong Kong Cup, but he went from the front when holding off top-class BAY BRIDGE in the G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup over 2,100m at the Curragh last May. He looks to have plenty in hand.
SPIRIT DANCER – part-owned by former Manchester United football manager Sir Alex Ferguson – might be 7YO but he still seems to be improving. He completed a hat-trick of wins in Britain last summer when landing the G3 Strensall Stakes over 1,761m at York last August. His G2 victory over 2,000m in Bahrain in November showed he can handle travelling to the Middle East and he backed it up with a creditable fourth in the G1 Jebel Hatta over 1,800m at Meydan in Dubai last month.
THE FOXES ran with credit in top races after winning the G2 Dante Stakes over 2,051m at York last year. His fifth-place finish in the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,405m at Epsom was even better than it looked as he stumbled coming out of the stalls. He should improve for his first run for five months when third over 2,221m on Southwell’s tapeta track four weeks ago.
GROCER JACK came good at the third attempt for Saudi-based trainer Jimmy Jerkens when making most of the running to win the Prince Khalid Abdullah Cup, a qualifier for this race, over the same course and distance last month. He had shown good form in Britain for William Haggas and the ground conditions will be in his favour.
ASTRO KING is another at home on fast turf. He missed the break when sixth behind SPIRIT DANCER over 2,000m in Bahrain in November, but if he’s sharper from the gates, he has the ability to run well.
SELECTIONS: 9. LUXEMBOURG, 10. SPIRIT DANCER, 13. THE FOXES, 5. GROCER JACK & 2. ASTRO KING
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-5: Multiple – 9. LUXEMBOURG & 10. SPIRIT DANCER
S3-6: Multiple – 3. IRON BAROWS & 5. AL NAYYIR
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S3-5:
Banker – 9. LUXEMBOURG
Selections – 10. SPIRIT DANCER, 13. THE FOXES, 5. GROCER JACK & 2. ASTRO KING
S3-6:
Banker – 3. IRON BAROWS
Selections – 5. AL NAYYIR, 1. GIAVELLOTTO, 11. TOWER OF LONDON & 9. ENEMY
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S3-5: Multiple – 9. LUXEMBOURG, 10. SPIRIT DANCER & 13. THE FOXES
S3-6: Multiple – 3. IRON BAROWS , 5. AL NAYYIR & 1. GIAVELLOTTO
S3-7: Multiple – 7. LEMON POP, 14. WHITE ABARRIO & 4. DERMA SOTOGAKE
S3-6 Red Sea Turf Handicap
Plenty of the more fancied runners have been drawn wide in the 3,000m Red Sea Turf Handicap, which is not what their connections would have wanted. Last year the first two home came from barriers one and two, while in two of the other three runnings the winner was drawn five or lower.
Japan have won the last two renewals and they have four contenders this year. Their best chance may well be the 7YO IRON BAROWS, trained by Hiroyuki Uemura and ridden by Cristian Demuro. He will come out of gate five and two starts back he landed a G2 staying race over 3,600m at Nakayama. His last start in the G1 Arima Kinen over 2,500m was a bridge too far, but he stayed on nicely down the inside and will appreciate this step back up in distance.
AL NAYYIR should go close for Georges Doleuze and Christophe Soumillon despite being drawn in gate 10. Last time out in a 2,810m Listed race at Meydan, he was grabbed by SISKANY right on the line to go down by a short head. That was a fine effort and he had a good summer last year, winning Listed events at Deauville over 3,000m and Saint-Cloud over 2,800m.
The likely favourite is TOWER OF LONDON for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore, who is O’Brien’s first runner in this valuable race. The son of GALILEO was successful twice last season over 2,400 and 2,559m and finished a respectable fourth in the G1 St Leger Stakes at Doncaster over 2,905m in September. He can certainly improve this season, although he is taking on horses with more experience and gate 12 isn’t ideal.
Marco Botti’s GIAVELLOTTO carries top weight and he shouldn’t be far away with Oisin Murphy taking the ride. He landed the G2 Yorkshire Cup over 2,771m last year when ridden by Andrea Atzeni and also ran well to finish third in the G2 Lonsdale Cup over 3,251m back at the same track in August. He has been off since then and goes well fresh, so all looks set for a big run.
ENEMY was a fine second in this race 12 months ago and connections will be hoping to pick up some more prize money after his win at Southwell last month over an inadequate 2,221m. He has the worst of the draw in gate 14, though.
SELECTIONS: 3. IRON BAROWS, 5. AL NAYYIR, 1. GIAVELLOTTO, 11. TOWER OF LONDON & 9. ENEMY
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-6: Multiple – 3. IRON BAROWS & 5. AL NAYYIR
S3-7: Multiple – 7. LEMON POP & 14. WHITE ABARRIO
S3-7 Saudi Cup
Now in its fifth year, the G1 Saudi Cup has attracted arguably its strongest ever field. The first two home in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic, WHITE ABARRIO and DERMA SOTOGAKE, will do battle again, while they’ll be joined by the likes of fellow American star NATIONAL TREASURE, LEMON POP from Japan and a respectable local challenge.
WHITE ABARRIO won the G1 Florida Derby as a 3YO, but then failed to get his head in front in his next six starts. Since switching trainers to Richard Dutrow, Jr., the grey has yet to finish outside of the placings in three starts, including impressive victories in the G1 Whitney Stakes and the G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic, and looks to have matured well. His recent form makes him a strong contender for this, and though being drawn in gate one could pose a challenge, he’s likely to go close.
A strongly run 1,800m should be perfect for DEFUNDED. He’s coming off a lay-off, but has been doing plenty of trackwork, and should be fit for this. If he can rediscover his form from earlier in 2023, then he could make the frame at big odds.
Of the Japanese challengers, DERMA SOTOGAKE has an obvious chance if reproducing or even taking a step forward from his second to WHITE ABARRIO in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. That was his first run since finishing sixth in the G1 Kentucky Derby six months prior, so he is entitled to improve on that.
LEMON POP looks to be Japan’s biggest hope, though. Apart from a no-show in the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen over 1,200m, where the trip would have been too sharp, he has 10 wins and three seconds from his 13 other starts. Most recently seen winning the G1 Champions Cup, his first try over the trip, the son of top middle-distance sire LEMON DROP KID remains unexposed.
CARMEL ROAD should not be overlooked. The son of QUALITY ROAD, who also sired 2022 Saudi Cup winner EMBLEM ROAD, powered away from his rivals last time out in the Listed King Faisal Cup over 1,600m. This is a much stronger race, but he’s proven to relish track conditions and could be a danger if improving for the step up to 1,800m.
SELECTIONS: 7. LEMON POP, 14. WHITE ABARRIO, 4. DERMA SOTOGAKE, 3. DEFUNDED & 1. CARMEL ROAD
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