Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

 

Expert Column for Dubai World Cup Day (S3) (Bill Esdaile)

S3-1     Godolphin Mile

 

ISOLATE looks to have a great chance of retaining his crown in the G2 Godolphin Mile. He could not have been more impressive when easily winning this 1,600m contest 12 months ago. The way he kicked clear to win by more than five and a half lengths having made the early running suggested he could hold his own in the top dirt races. Doug Watson’s star returned to Meydan with a smooth victory in the G2 Al Maktoum Mile in December but it was a little disappointing he couldn’t make an impact when only sixth in the G1 Saudi Cup over 1,800m last month. Meydan’s different dirt surface and the shorter distance clearly suits him better.

 

SAUDI CROWN was only beaten a length when third behind SENOR BUSCADOR in the G1 Saudi Cup over 1,800m. That form gives him the clear edge over ISOLATE but he’s done most of his racing over longer distances than this 1,600m trip.

 

SWING VOTE has taken well to the dirt. He looked a nice prospect when winning over 1,600m and 2,000m at Chantilly in France last spring. Since joining Simon & Ed Crisford from Andre Fabre and switching to dirt in Dubai he has shown improved form. His G3 win over 1,600m at Jebel Ali last March was his third win over that course and distance this winter. He was unable to show his usual finishing kick in the G3 Burj Nahaar over 1,600m at Meydan early this month, but that race didn’t play to his strengths.

 

TWO RIVERS OVER has improved since switching to American trainer Doug O’Neill. His fourth in a Santa Anita G2 in January was a nice step in the right direction but that still leaves him some way short of the big two.

 

If there is to be a surprise result, CARAMEL CHIP could be the one. He’s mostly run over sprint distances but there is stamina in his pedigree. It was only a claimer he won over 1,200m at Gulfstream Park in January but he’s since gone on to run well when fourth in the Listed Pelican Stakes over 1,200m on the dirt at Tampa Bay Downs. This is another big rise in grade but he could improve for the step up to 1,600m.

 

SELECTIONS: 4. ISOLATE, 7. SAUDI CROWN, 10. SWING VOTE, 11. TWO RIVERS OVER & 1. CARAMEL CHIP

 

1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-1: Multiple – 4. ISOLATE & 7. SAUDI CROWN
S3-2: Multiple – 11. SISKANY & 16. TOWER OF LONDON

 

S3-2     Dubai Gold Cup

 

Charlie Appleby has not saddled the winner of the G2 Dubai Gold Cup over 3,200m since CROSS COUNTER won the 2019 renewal, but he appears to have leading claims in this year’s renewal with last year’s runner-up SISKANY.Arriving on the back of wins at Listed and G3 level (both over 2,810m), SISKANY looks set for a bold bid to go one place better than 12 months ago.Fitted with cheekpieces for the first time this year, and with race fitness on his side, the DUBAWI gelding looks well placed in gate six to run another big race on ground conditions which should be ideal.

 

BROOME gave trainer Aidan O’Brien his first victory in the race 12 months ago, and stablemate TOWER OF LONDONlooks another strong contender for the Ballydoyle master.Although yet to win over 3,200m, TOWER OF LONDON appeared to need every yard of the 3,000m trip in the G3 Red Sea Turf Handicap at King Abdulaziz last month.Being housed in stall 14 is not ideal, but the son of GALILEO has shown before that he is capable of winning when sitting just off the pace or being held up.

 

GIAVELLOTTOcould only finish ninth in the race last year when unable to challenge from gate 15, but he showed improved form following that run to win the G2 Yorkshire Cup over 2,771m on his return to Britain.Having given weight to TOWER OF LONDON when finishing third behind him last time out in the G3 Red Sea Turf Handicap over 3,000m, the Marco Botti-trained runner will be expected to get closer to that rival back on level terms from a more favourable position in gate one, which last year’s winner raced from.

 

The John and Thady Gosden-trained TRAWLERMANshowed improved form in Britain during the second half of last year when completing a hat-trick of wins, culminating with victory in the G2 British Champions Long Distance Cup over 3,115m at Ascot. Being drawn widest of all in gate 16 makes life difficult, but the GOLDEN HORN gelding will be expected to perform much better than when only beating one horse home in last year's renewal.

 

In a race that requires an abundance of stamina to win, COLTRANEwill be suited to this test. After finishing second on quick ground in last year’s G1 Gold Cup over 3,991m at Ascot, the Andrew Balding-trained 7YO was a winner of the G2 Lonsdale Cup over 3,251m at York, and he should run another solid race.

 

SELECTIONS: 11. SISKANY, 16. TOWER OF LONDON, 6. GIAVELLOTTO, 13. TRAWLERMAN & 2. COLTRANE

 

2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-2: Multiple – 11. SISKANY & 16. TOWER OF LONDON
S3-3: Multiple – 4. DANYAH & 5. DILIGENT HARRY

 

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S3-2:   
Banker – 11. SISKANY
Selections – 16. TOWER OF LONDON, 6. GIAVELLOTTO, 13. TRAWLERMAN & 2. COLTRANE
S3-3:   
Banker – 4. DANYAH
Selections – 5. DILIGENT HARRY, 12. STAR OF MYSTERY, 3. CASA CREED & 11. FROST AT DAWN

 

S3-3     Al Quoz Sprint

 

The G1 Al Quoz Sprint is a lightning dash down the straight 1,200m turf course and has proved a good race for the older horses in the speed division.

 

However, it might still be worth taking on the two 3YO filles, STAR OF MYSTERY and FROST AT DAWN this year.

 

STAR OF MYSTERY remains highly-rated by her connections, even though she was beaten comprehensively by FROST AT DAWN here on Super Saturday over 1,000m. The faster the early gallop the better for STAR OF MYSTERY, who has won three of her five races over this longer trip and is sure to be doing all her best work at the finish.

 

French ace Mickael Barzalona, who was riding FROST AT DAWN for the first time, was impressed, and this filly had been beaten by head over 1,200m in her previous race, he reckoned that she would travel even better back over this trip.

 

I always like a more streetwise sprinter for these cavalry charges, and locally-trained DANYAH knows every blade of grass around here. The versatile 7YO is improving with age and won this sprint last year, the first time he had raced over 1,200m since his juvenile days. And DANYAH has produced two solid runs this season over 1,400m here. He was arguably a bit unlucky when a close third from a bad draw last time and has clearly been brought along steadily with a repeat success very much in mind.

 

DILIGENT HARRY’s seven wins have all been on the polytrack, but he was only pipped in a photo in a G3 race on turf at Newbury over 1,200m last summer. It was 995m when he won his prep-race for this on tapeta at Southwell, but he has won five times over this 1,200m, a trip which suits him better.

 

Top American trainer William Mott has a smart sprinter in CASA CREED, who is a four-time winner at the top level. However, two of those victories were over 1,600m, and he might be taken off his legs in such a fast-run race. Remember, he could finish only fifth in this race two years ago, but he is another who will be doing all his best work late on.

 

SELECTIONS: 4. DANYAH, 5. DILIGENT HARRY, 12. STAR OF MYSTERY, 3. CASA CREED & 11. FROST AT DAWN

 

3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-3: Multiple – 4. DANYAH & 5. DILIGENT HARRY
S3-4: Multiple – 12. PANDAGATE & 5. FOREVER YOUNG

 

S3-4     UAE Derby

 

A multi-national field of talented 3YOs lines up for the eagerly anticipated G2 UAE Derby over 1,900m.

 

PANDAGATE has shown some talent in his three starts to date, winning his 2YO debut by a very impressive nine lengths and, more recently, the 1,600m race by over five and a half lengths at Aqueduct in February. Coming from Christophe Clement’s US stable, which has made a very strong start to 2024, PANDAGATE should have a very good chance, despite this being his first try at this level. He must overcome a wide draw of 10, though.

 

The formidable Japanese handler Yoshito Yahagi sends FOREVER YOUNG, unbeaten in four starts to date, into the mix. This colt took the step up into Group company in his stride when winning the G3 Saudi Derby over 1,600m at King Abdulaziz by a head. He may have to improve on that performance to win this, and does also have a wide draw to overcome, but he still looks a key player here.

 

GEORGE TESORO steps up to Group level for the first time, having been very narrowly denied his last race in Chukyo at Japan over 1,400m. An improving sort, the step up in distance to 1,900m should suit him well and he has a more favourable draw than some of his rivals.

 

Drawn beside GEORGE TESORO, Aidan O’Brien’s HENRY ADAMS is very interesting having had a promising 2YO season, winning twice and running well in G1 races over 1,400m. Bred for this distance, he is likely to improve on his dirt debut, and O’Brien’s runners must always be respected at this meeting.

 

GUNS AND GLORY will come out from stall nine, might not be exposed at this level yet, and he won his last race over 1,900m by an extraordinary 12 lengths. If showing that ability again here, he can be competitive and has the experience of jockey Jamie Spencer to aid his chances.

 

SELECTIONS: 12. PANDAGATE, 5. FOREVER YOUNG, 6. GEORGE TESORO, 8. HENRY ADAMS & 7. GUNS AND GLORY

 

4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-4: Multiple – 12. PANDAGATE & 5. FOREVER YOUNG
S3-5: Multiple – 11. REMAKE & 13. SIBELIUS

 

S3-5     Dubai Golden Shaheen

 

There have been some surprise winners of the 1,200m G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen in recent seasons and once again this renewal has an open look to it.

 

Last year, SIBELIUS produced a brilliant late finish under Ryan Moore to get up on the line and win by a nose. Moore has been reunited with the Jeremiah O’Dwyer-trained runner in a bid for a repeat of that success, and he arrives in good form having warmed up for this by winning the Listed Pelican Stakes over 1,200m last time.

 

REMAKE finished over a length behind SIBELIUS in this race last year, but he was shuffled back off the home turn and was given a lot to do that day. He flew home late and would surely have gone close if better positioned at the top of the home stretch. Koichi Shintani’s 5YO comes here in better form than last time, having won the G3 Riyadh Dirt Sprint over 1,200m at King Abdulaziz on his most recent start, a contest he could only manage third in 12 months ago. He won that with some authority under rider Yuga Kawada and could be improving.

 

NAKATOMI finished behind SIBELIUS in the Listed Pelican Stakes last time out. That was his first start in nearly 100 days since finishing behind ELITE POWER and GUNITE in the 1,200m G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint in November, so he is entitled to come on for it. A winner over 1,400m, the Wesley Ward-trained gelding stays this trip well and will be hoping for a strong pace to aim at.

 

Frankie Dettori is back riding at Meydan and he partners the William Mott-trained BOLD JOURNEY. He could only manage third behind REMAKE in the G3 Riyadh Dirt Sprint last time out, but before that he had twice both over 1,200m been a good winner at Aqueduct towards the end of last year, he should be involved in the finish.

 

MOUHEEB flies the flag for UAE-based trainer Michael Costa. This 6YO is a two-time course and distance winner, including when returning from a lengthy absence to win the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint over 1,200min impressive style in January. He disappointed in this race last year, but on the form of his most recent start he could put up a better show this time around.

 

SELECTIONS: 11. REMAKE, 13. SIBELIUS, 10. NAKATOMI, 1. BOLD JOURNEY & 9. MOUHEEB

 

5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-5: Multiple – 11. REMAKE & 13. SIBELIUS
S3-6: Multiple – 5. DO DEUCE & 10. MEASURED TIME

 

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S3-5:   
Banker – 11. REMAKE
Selections – 13. SIBELIUS, 10. NAKATOMI, 1. BOLD JOURNEY & 9. MOUHEEB
S3-6:   
Banker – 5. DO DEUCE
Selections – 10. MEASURED TIME, 7. LORD NORTH, 14. VOYAGE BUBBLE & 8. LUXEMBOURG

 

S3-6     Dubai Turf

 

You just have to look through the role of honour of the G1 Dubai Turf over 1,800m to see the quality of horse that often wins it. The likes of SOLOW, ALMOND EYE and PANTHALASSA have won the G1 contest in recent years, and the next one of that crop could be DO DEUCE. Trained in Japan by Yasuo Tomomichi, the 5YO is one of only two horses to have beaten the mighty EQUINOX and he looks a leading contender for this after winning the G1 Arima Kinen over 2,500m last time. He steps back in trip here but has run well over shorter distances in the past and can give his trainer a second win in the race.

 

The one to follow him home could be MEASURED TIME. Charlie Appleby’s 4YO son of FRANKEL comes into having won his last two at Meydan over this 1,800m trip. The second of those came in the G1 Jebel Hatta, and the form of that victory looks solid as the fourth-placed horse, SPIRIT DANCER, has won a G2 subsequently.

 

LORD NORTH has to be considered given his superb record in the race which has seen him win it the last three years – well, he dead-heated with PANTHALASSA in 2022. He’s a classy animal who rarely runs a bad race, and he warmed up for this with a good run when finishing second in the G3 Winter Deby Stakes over 2,221m at Southwell. This is a big step up in class from that, but his record in this race makes him dangerous and hard to dismiss.

 

Aidan O’Brien has never won this race, and his main contender to change that is LUXEMBOURG. The three-time G1 winner isn’t the most consistent, but when he’s at his best he’s a match for most. He was only fourth when fancied to win the G2 Neom Turf Cup over 2,100m at King Abdulaziz last time, but he wouldn’t be without a chance if repeating his close second to Hong Kong superstar ROMANTIC WARRIOR in the G1 LONGINES Hong Kong Cup over 2,000m last December in Sha Tin.

 

That’s the same case with Hong Kong raider VOYAGE BUBBLE. The 2023 Hong Kong Derby winner wasn’t beaten far by GOLDEN SIXTY in the 2023 G1 LONGINES Hong Kong Mile over 1,600m and having won the G1 Stewards’ Cup over 1,600m after that, he was only just beaten by ROMANTIC WARRIOR in the G1 Citi Hong Kong Gold Cup over 2,000m. That form certainly brings him into the picture here.

 

SELECTIONS: 5. DO DEUCE, 10. MEASURED TIME, 7. LORD NORTH, 14. VOYAGE BUBBLE & 8. LUXEMBOURG

 

6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-6: Multiple – 5. DO DEUCE & 10. MEASURED TIME
S3-7: Multiple – 12. LIBERTY ISLAND & 9. AUGUSTE RODIN

 

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S3-6: Multiple – 5. DO DEUCE, 10. MEASURED TIME & 7. LORD NORTH
S3-7: Multiple – 12. LIBERTY ISLAND, 9. AUGUSTE RODIN & 8. SPIRIT DANCER
S3-8: Multiple – 11. USHBA TESORO, 4. DERMA SOTOGAKE & 6. KABIRKHAN

 

S3-7     Dubai Sheema Classic

 

One of the big attractions on Dubai World Cup night has to beLIBERTY ISLANDin the 2,410m G1 Dubai Sheema Classic. Only the great EQUINOX, the world’s highest-rated horse in 2023, could dethrone Japan’s Triple Tiara heroine last year, beating her by four lengths in the 2,400m G1 Japan Cup. With that superstar now retired, the door is open forLIBERTY ISLANDto land her fifth G1 and she fully deserves her place at the head of the market.

 

Her main danger appears to beAUGUSTE RODIN, who despite being a little inconsistent as a 3YO last season, could be a world-beater now he has a bit more experience and maturity under his belt. While he finished down the field in both the 1,600m G1 2000 Guineas and the 2,392m G1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes, the son of DEEP IMPACT still plundered four G1 contests last season. He was last seen weaving through traffic under Ryan Moore to land the G1 Breeders' Cup Turf over this trip and looks set for all the major middle-distance races in 2024.

 

Less proven but exciting stepping up in distance is recent 2,100m G2 Neom Turf Cup winnerSPIRIT DANCER. The 7YO son of FRANKEL has proved a revelation in theMiddleEast over the last few months, landing big prizes in both Saudi Arabia (2,100m) and Bahrain (2,000m). He’ll need to improve again to worry the likes of LIBERTY ISLAND and AUGUSTE RODIN but is worth chancing for a place on his first try at 2,410m.

 

It’s hard to leave 2,400m G1 Hong Kong Vase winnerJUNKOout of the equation given the manner of his victory at Sha Tin in December. Before that he won the G1 Grosser Preis Von Bayern over 2,400m in fine style, though that was a weakish contest for the Grade, and he had a nice prep run in a 1,900m 4yo+ Conditions earlier this month. While he didn’t trouble the winner that day, it was over an inadequate trip and he should be much fitter for this.

 

EMILY UPJOHNalso has a chance of finishing in the frame. She’s very lightly-raced for a 5YO and is a mare that seems to be at her best over 2,400m on good ground, so conditions should suit.

 

SELECTIONS: 12. LIBERTY ISLAND, 9. AUGUSTE RODIN, 8. SPIRIT DANCER, 1. JUNKO & 10. EMILY UPJOHN

 

7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-7: Multiple – 12. LIBERTY ISLAND & 9. AUGUSTE RODIN
S3-8: Multiple – 11. USHBA TESORO & 4. DERMA SOTOGAKE

 

S3-8     Dubai World Cup

 

There has only been one back-to-back winner of the 2,000m G1 Dubai World Cup when THUNDER SNOW won it in 2018 and 2019, but in USHBA TESORO we have a horse who looks well capable of doing it again. The 7YO was impressive when winning 12 months ago, and while he perhaps hasn’t been quite as good since, he warmed up for this with an excellent run in the 1,800m G1 Saudi Cup last time. He was just touched off by SENOR BUSCADOR that day and while this year’s race looks to have a little more strength in depth than 12 months ago, he is still the one to beat.

 

Japanese-trained runners have a strong hand in the race as DERMA SOTOGAKE is another who should go well. He wasn’t beaten far in the aforementioned Saudi Cup and ran really well to finish second in last year’s 2,000m G1 Breeders’ Cup Classic. The son of MIND YOUR BISCUITS bolted up in the 1,900m G2 UAE Derby on this card last season, and on that run he’s a real contender for this prize.

 

Both horses finished behind SENOR BUSCADOR in the Saudi Cup and while many will expect those two to reverse the form, he could easily improve again. The win in King Abdulaziz was certainly a career best from Todd Fincher’s contender and this is a deeper contest, but he can’t be ruled out. He’s run well in G1 contests in his native America and showed in Saudi Arabia that he has the ability to win them too.

 

KABIRKHAN is lacking in experience versus his rivals, but his win in the 1,900m G1 Al Maktoum Challenge last time showed he’s a colt of serious potential. He bolted up by 4.8 lengths despite breaking poorly and there is surely more to come. A better start here is needed, but he has untapped potential and is a danger to all if progressing again.

 

If there’s one at a big price who could hit the frame it’s DEFUNDED. Don’t forget he’s a dual G1 winner, including when beating the 2022 winner of this race, COUNTRY GRAMMER, in the 1,800m Awesome Again Stakes in 2022. A seventh-place finish in the Saudi Cup wasn’t too bad a prep for this, and he could easily outrun his odds.

 

SELECTIONS: 11. USHBA TESORO, 4. DERMA SOTOGAKE, 6. KABIRKHAN, 10. SENOR BUSCADOR & 3. DEFUNDED

 

 

 

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