 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
|---|---|
| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Osaka Hai (S4) (Naohiro Goda)
S4-1 Osaka Hai
Middle distance division in Japan has become hollow at this time of year, because of two reasons – the first reason is the Dubai World Cup meeting is conducted on the same weekend, many of the Japanese middle distance runners, such as LIBERTY ISLAND, DO DEUCE, and STARS ON EARTH, prefer to compete at Meydan rather than running at Hanshin. And second reason is the Champions Day at Hong Kong on 28th April. The connections of, for example PROGNOSIS, who won the G2 Kinko Sho at Chukyo on 10th March by five lengths, prefers to save the horse for the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup and skips Osaka Hai.
It is fortunate that the middle distance division in Japan has a depth, and field of Osaka Hi is still competitive.
My favourite is the 4YO BELLAGIO OPERA, trained by Hiroyuki Uemura for Shorai Hayashi. He ran well during first half of 3YO season, won the G2 Spring Stakes and finishing fourth in the G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby). BELLAGIO OPERA has shown us that he improved significantly when he returned to action in December, after having six months’ off. He won the G3 Challenge Cup at Hanshin on 2nd December, when his body weight was 20kg heavier than his previous start and he looked much stronger than before. And the G3 Challenge Cup was conducted over the same course and distance as Osaka Hai. Since he won the maiden at Hanshin as well, it is obvious that Hanshin is his favourite track, as BELLAGIO OPERA started there twice and won both of them.
My second choice is ROUSHAM PARK, who won the G2 Sankei Sho All Comers at Nakayama on 24th September 2023. As the second finisher was TITLEHOLDER, winner of three G1s, I regard his form in that race highly. Although ROUSHAM PARK was disappointing eighth in the G1 LONGINES Hong Kong Cup on 10th December, I assess his condition was not 100% and he could not handle the track at Sha Tin well. He has been trained beautifully at Miho Training Centre recently and I believe ROUSHAM PARK is able to run his race on Sunday.
I thought SOL ORIENS was the best 3YO in Japan when he won the G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) in April 2023, however, I was wrong as he has lost five starts in a row since then. I still assess he is a talented horse and is capable to win another G1. SOL ORIENS is my third choice.
Tunnel for GEOGLYPH is longer than SOL ORIENS in fact. Geoglyph won the G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) in April 2022, defeating great EQUINOX, and has lost nine starts in a row since then. GEOGLYPH finished third in the G2 Nakayama Kinen last time out and I think he is now coming back into form. GEOGLYPH is my fourth choice.
PRADARIA, who won the G2 Kyoto Kinen on 11th February, beating BELLAGIO OPERA, is my fifth choice. If rain in mid-week is heavier and track is softer than expected, his chance should be bigger.
SELECTIONS: 11. BELLAGIO OPERA, 2. ROUSHAM PARK, 10. SOL ORIENS, 6. GEOGLYPH & 8. PRADARIA
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