 Expert - Brett Davis | |
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| Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts. | |
Expert Column for Doncaster Mile Day (S1) (Brett Davis)
S1-1 HKJC World Pool Carbine Club Stakes
WITZ END arrives in Sydney following a second place in the G2 Wellington Guineas at Trentham. He handled the rise in class and the soft ground well, particularly after being checked at the start. The step up to 1,600m looks absolutely perfect judged on the way he found the line, so with James McDonald atop and blinkers on for the first time you’re going to be given every chance.
DUCASSE has been up against the big guns at his past couple and not disgraced at the highest level. The drop back in distance from 2,000m to 1,600m is seen as positive and shall allow him to find the line with strength. He can mix his form and effort levels from time to time as the colts often do, but he’ll find this competition much easier today and shouldn’t be overlooked.
CAFE MILLENIUM holds the proven class in this event and shall be hard to fend off if he rocks up anywhere near his best. He was found to have mild heat stress after his run in the G1 Rosehill Guineas last start, so the option to drop back in class and trip has been taken. He’s likely to receive the strong pace he adores.
LES VAMPIRES draws well for former Hong Kong jockey Sam Clipperton and that assures they’ll position on speed. The distance of 1,600m is definitely of concern however he’s shown plenty of class in races much tougher than this. With an on-speed slot assured and slightly inferior opponents chasing he’ll run a solid race to the wire.
PASIMA took some time to win his maiden, but he got there in the final strides at Warwick Farm last start. He’s been thrown in the deep end by Ciaron Maher, and the barrier draw isn’t ideal but his win was rather encouraging. He really knuckled down over the final stages, and with his confidence up and about he can run well again.
SELECTIONS: 2. WITZ END, 3. DUCASSE, 1. CAFE MILLENIUM, 4. LES VAMPIRES & 15. PASIMA
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 2. WITZ END & 3. DUCASSE
S1-2: Multiple – 3. WAIKATO GIRL & 1. AUTUMN ANGEL
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-1:
Banker – 2. WITZ END
Selections – 3. DUCASSE, 1. CAFE MILLENIUM, 4. LES VAMPIRES & 15. PASIMA
S1-2:
Banker – 3. WAIKATO GIRL
Selections – 1. AUTUMN ANGEL, 7. PRIVATE LEGACY, 12. GOOD BANTER & 2. HARLOW MIST
S1-2 Adrian Knox Stakes
WAIKATO GIRL is ready to peak following three outings this campaign and the 2,000m is perfectly within her range. She got shuffled back in the G3 Kembla Grange Classic before bustling through during the final stages to grab third. Jockey Tommy Berry had other options in this event, should he have wished to change, so his loyalty over a decent period of time is certainly worthy of note.
AUTUMN ANGEL has a good draw, excellent rider aboard and the superior form but she must carry a massive amount of weight. With no claims allowed Mark Zahra shall be hoping she gains a comfortable run throughout and makes no mistakes. It’s her first trip to Sydney, and first attempt at the clockwise direction, so she’ll have to past that test to win, but remember she’s already a G3 and G2 winner.
PRIVATE LEGACY is fit and ready to jump up in distance to 2,000m following three solid performances this campaign. The wide gate looks awful on paper, but it shouldn’t hinder her too much as she’ll be wanting to settle back. They should run along up front, which shall spread the field out, and create her opportunity to close in from the back.
GOOD BANTER covered plenty of extra ground in her most recent defeat and Jamie Kah now picks up the ride. There are questions being asked as to whether she’ll run out the longer trip and I definitely agree, there’s some doubt. However, her pedigree suggests she’s aching for that challenge and her fitness base is spot on and ready to roll.
HARLOW MIST arrives third up to this contest and must be given respect. She was third in the G2 Wakeful Stakes over this distance last spring at Flemington and that form shall stand up. She had excuse when searching for room in the most recent G3 Kembla Grange Classic, therefore, including her in calculations despite the wide gate would be a feasible option.
SELECTIONS: 3. WAIKATO GIRL, 1. AUTUMN ANGEL, 7. PRIVATE LEGACY, 12. GOOD BANTER & 2. HARLOW MIST
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 3. WAIKATO GIRL & 1. AUTUMN ANGEL
S1-3: Multiple – 1. BANDI’S BOY & 11. ASSOCIATE
S1-3 Country Championships Final
BANDI’S BOY has found a new level of form winning three of his past four and in total, five of ten. He’s expertly placed off his rating of 110 and 21 points higher than his nearest rival on 89. A familiar jockey, inside barrier and three wins at the track also paint a pretty picture if you’re looking to play, so whatever beats him shall probably win.
ASSOCIATE has won two of his past three with and impressive turn of foot and should be given a genuine chance. In between, he found traffic issues in a race at Moruya which was ultimately won by the likely favourite BANDI’S BOY. He’s gained plenty of confidence over the last few months and the low draw entitles him to a perfect trail.
SHARP SHOCK has finished runner up at his past three starts but should have arguably won the G3 Newcastle Stakes. He enjoys his racing best when there’s some cushion in the track which is going to be in his favour. No one understands him better than rider Reece Jones and together they’ll run a good honest race.
TRIBECA STAR comes to Randwick following a solid second place at Eagle Farm last start in Class 6 Handicap. Interestingly, Nash Rawiller jumps back aboard, and the pair did had success in a race at Rosehill in November last year. There won’t be any fitness issues because he’s been up for quite some time, and no ground or surface concerns at all.
MUSICAL AFFAIR is peaking at the right time for this lucrative prize money race, and she’ll be out on speed running wild. She appreciates being allowed to run when going to the races and hard to catch at her past three starts. Rachel King now jumps aboard for her first ride on this mare, and I expect she’ll give a reasonable sight.
SELECTIONS: 1. BANDI’S BOY, 11. ASSOCIATE, 9. SHARP SHOCK, 7. TRIBECA STAR & 15. MUSICAL AFFAIR
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 1. BANDI’S BOY & 11. ASSOCIATE
S1-4: Multiple – 1. STORM BOY & 3. TRAFFIC WARDEN
S1-4 ATC Sires' Produce Stakes
STORM BOY was purchased for an obscene amount of money following his win in the Gold Coast Magic Millions but unfortunately his bubble burst last start. The son of JUSTIFY was hesitant at the beginning of the G1 Golden Slipper and it certainly proved costly at the end. He’s a young boy in a grown man’s body so the up in distance to 1,400m shouldn’t be of concern. It’s highly likely he bounces back quickly and gets back to his winning ways.
TRAFFIC WARDEN is going to appreciate the 1,400m just like he did in the G2 VRC Sires’ Produce Stakes one month ago. His efforts in both the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes and G1 Golden Slipper at 1,200m were fantastic in defeat but he’s clearly suited to the slightly longer trip. Jamie Kah reacquaints herself to the saddle, as she did at Flemington, and they won’t have to push hard and lead this time from the low favourable draw.
LADY OF CAMELOT has all the pressure on her after taking out the G1 Golden Slipper. She’s a fast-running machine that enjoys the on speed challenge of fighting off opponents one by one. The 1,400m shall no doubt test her out but she could easily be up to the task. She also appears the probable leader in the event, or a cushy sit in at worst, which entitles her to the comfort of conserving energy until the end.
MANAAL certainly caught the eye when she powered home from the back in the G1 Golden Slipper last start. The wide draw made it difficult on that occasion, and it could well be the same today, but she’ll adore the extra time to make up ground. Her runner up position in the G3 Widden Stakes behind LADY OF CAMELOT, and victory in the G2 Sweet Embrace Stakes, gave every indication she’s top class.
COLEMAN was marked as the horse to beat in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes but over raced earlier then made mistakes. He quickly atoned and put that behind him when arriving in Sydney and eventually finished a gallant second place in the G1 Golden Slipper. The draw today over 1,400m might force him back at the start, which could help him to further progress, but he can’t afford to fire up over the longer journey.
SELECTIONS: 1. STORM BOY, 3. TRAFFIC WARDEN, 9. LADY OF CAMELOT, 10. MANAAL & 2. COLEMAN
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 1. STORM BOY & 3. TRAFFIC WARDEN
S1-5: Multiple – 8. IMPERATRIZ & 13. MAGIC TIME
S1-5 T J Smith Stakes
IMPERATRIZ is lining up for the 11th G1 win, and it’ll take an exceptional performance by another opponent to deny her the win. She’s almost faultless in all areas of her game with no track conditions, directional changes or tactical manoeuvres likely to bring her undone. She’s only been to Randwick on one occasion previously and ironically, she was beaten in the final stride, however, it was her first assignment on Australian soil. The only horse to defeat her since then is CYLINDER, who competes against her today, and he’s drawn right alongside.
MAGIC TIME is another powerful and relatively unexposed filly that also gives every indication she’s got what it takes to win a race of this calibre. She comes into this event off the back of a tiring first up effort in the G1 Newmarket Handicap at Flemington where she worked hard on speed. Her second up record is almost faultless, and she’s won over this course and trip. She’ll be classified as an outside chance but is better than that price suggests, particularly with the anticipated rain.
I WISH I WIN hasn’t been seen since The Everest in October last year where he finished second beaten a short margin. He won this race third up in 2023 on a heavy track with a barnstorming finish from near last. He was rated amongst the top sprinters in the world at one point, so despite the fact there’s no official barrier trial, you can guarantee he’s got what it takes and is here to win.
SUNSHINE IN PARIS is a hefty sized mare who became a reliable force in the spring of 2023. She was placed in multiple group races before winning the G1 Surround Stakes at Randwick and the G2 Sheraco Stakes at Rosehill. She returned with an awesome first up effort in the G1 The Galaxy over 1,100m when charging home hard from midfield. The bar has been raised to weight for age level here, but her own sectional data says she’ll run a big race.
BELLA NIPOTINA is ready to peak this preparation following three honest performances at the highest level. She would prefer a little cut in the track, but it seems like she’ll get a decent speed to run at in the stretch. She’ll need a few favours to unfold if she’s to weave her magic when it counts, but she’s as honest as they come and extremely dangerous to leave out.
SELECTIONS: 8. IMPERATRIZ, 13. MAGIC TIME, 1. I WISH I WIN, 11. SUNSHINE IN PARIS & 9. BELLA NIPOTINA
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 8. IMPERATRIZ & 13. MAGIC TIME
S1-6: Multiple – 12. LADY LAGUNA & 4. MILITARIZE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 8. IMPERATRIZ
Selections – 13. MAGIC TIME, 1. I WISH I WIN, 11. SUNSHINE IN PARIS & 9. BELLA NIPOTINA
S1-6:
Banker – 12. LADY LAGUNA
Selections – 4. MILITARIZE, 18. ANOTHER WIL, 19. CELESTIAL LEGEND & 6. GOLDEN MILE
S1-6 Doncaster Mile
LADY LAGUNA has raised the bar to a completely new level this campaign by winning the G1 Canterbury Stakes. She then followed that up with a hard finishing second in the G1 George Ryder Stakes over 1,500m two weeks ago behind VEIGHT, with MILITARIZE a credible third. She now arrives to this fascinating contest as the equal top-rated runner alongside THINK ABOUT IT on 115 points. Her task today is to run out a strong 1,600m, but she can certainly challenge for the win off this light weight.
MILITARIZE is zoning in on his feature goal this campaign which is to win the coveted G1 Doncaster Mile. This incredibly talented 3YO is already a multiple G1 winner between 1,400m and 1,600m with his preparation leading in near on perfect. Zac Purton arrives in town to pick up the ride after winning this very event last year on MR BRIGHTSIDE. He handles all track conditions however a touch of cushion is generally preferred which is what he’s going to receive.
ANOTHER WIL started the short price favourite for his Sydney debut last weekend and it was easy to see why. The 4YO gelding has developed very quickly into a serious running machine and it’s courtesy of his incredible natural talent and heart. Jamie Kah reported after his win in the Doncaster Prelude that she thought he was a genuine super star, despite the fact he gets very hot pre-race, and he didn’t let her or anyone down. However, the near outside barrier draw and superior opposition on this occasion create an intriguing new challenge.
CELESTIAL LEGEND put up a fighting performance to win the G1 Randwick Guineas against his own age last start and is exceptionally well placed at the weights. He’s also draw favourably in gate six which shall entitle him to positional favours early on, and in the run. Trainer Les Bridge has openly declared that he’s potentially the best horse he’s every trained, which is a massive statement considering his long, prudent and distinguished training career.
GOLDEN MILE finished last in the G1 Doncaster Mile in 2023 behind MR BRIGHTSIDE but he began poorly and didn’t handle the heavy track under foot. He’s been building nicely through his current campaign and could run a cheeky race in front from the inside draw.
SELECTIONS: 12. LADY LAGUNA, 4. MILITARIZE, 18. ANOTHER WIL, 19. CELESTIAL LEGEND & 6. GOLDEN MILE
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 12. LADY LAGUNA & 4. MILITARIZE
S1-7: Multiple – 14. ZARDOZI & 1. RIFF ROCKET
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 12. LADY LAGUNA, 4. MILITARIZE & 18. ANOTHER WIL
S1-7: Multiple – 14. ZARDOZI, 1. RIFF ROCKET & 2. TOM KITTEN
S1-8: Multiple – 1. LEARNING TO FLY, 12. COMMEMORATIVE & 9. FACILE
S1-7 Australian Derby
ZARDOZI is on track to run in the G1 Australian Oaks but the Godolphin team in blue are well prepared and not frightened to firstly take on the boys. With a fifty percent win strike rate and the G1 VRC Oaks already to her name there are no queries around distance, class or expected wet conditions. She also has the advantage of a pull in the weights, just to level things out, plus a good draw. The incredible Jamie Kah also takes the ride so there are many reasons to suggest she can score.
RIFF ROCKET is one of the most exciting 3YOs in the country and was absolutely brilliant when recapturing his best in the recent G1 Rosehill Guineas. He won the G1 Victoria Derby last year at Flemington with an incredible sustained turn off foot and that’s precisely what he brought again last start. It’s a cracking field he battles, and it won’t be an easy race to win, but his overall depth of talent and long sustained speed is what likely separates him from the rest.
TOM KITTEN is already a G1 winner and one of the most difficult runners to assess with confidence. His form last campaign was outstanding, and he hasn’t been far away recently in some incredibly deep events, but he was left in the dust in the G1 Rosehill Guineas. He rises to the 2,400m for the first time and it’s expected he’ll ease back for a quiet comfortable trail. He’ll run the trip no problem, but the question still remains, can he produce the required turn of foot to win?
CEOLWULF elevated his handicap an additional ten rating points for his runner up prize in the G1 Rosehill Guineas which brings him into calculations. He’s by TAVISTOCK, so the rise to 2,400m isn’t seen as a problem and the good draw allows him to do no work. He was also ridden with a more conservative approach last time out with this exact race in mind. With only one win to his name, you’d probably think no, however a hard core staying race might be just what he wants.
GANBARE has the positive feel of familiar surroundings plus home ground advantage whilst drawing the inside gate. This can add up to a polished performance when combining it with his foundation of racing and work. He looks the potential pilot, although the option to take a sit might end up being the case, but whatever the situation it’s anticipated he’ll run out the journey.
SELECTIONS: 14. ZARDOZI, 1. RIFF ROCKET, 2. TOM KITTEN, 3. CEOLWULF & 5. GANBARE
7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 14. ZARDOZI & 1. RIFF ROCKET
S1-8: Multiple – 1. LEARNING TO FLY & 12. COMMEMORATIVE
S1-8 P J Bell Stakes
LEARNING TO FLY is an extremely progressive 3YO filly who should have most of these other young ladies covered pound for pound. The return to 1,200m is also a plus with the 1,400m of the G1 Surround Stakes just stretching her stamina to this point. She’ll need to carry a fraction more weight than most, but a good draw can offset that challenge making her difficult to beat.
COMMEMORATIVE bolted in first up at Wyong following a nice long spell and appears to have plenty more to offer. James McDonald is replaced by Jamie Kah, with a light weight to be carried, and they’ve drawn quite well in gate eight. This looks a nice race for her to take the next, therefore, if she doesn’t feature, I’d be very disappointed and surprised.
FACILE can only boast the one win from nine starts but is very capable on her day. She has a liking for this track and distance and shall appreciate the rise to 1,400m. There hasn’t been much wrong with her opening two runs this campaign and I’m tipping she’ll run a nice race.
KRISTILLI did finish her race off recently in the G1 Surround Stakes. Prior to that her efforts were sound in the G3 Southern Cross Stakes and G2 Light Fingers Stakes so she’s worthy or some leeway. She’s already proven she can cope at this level, but if the rain comes in heavy, she is going to thrive.
MIRAVAL ROSE arrives in Sydney for her first attempt and has the potential to lead. She’ll go in fresh, with her last race a win at Caulfield in the listed Twilight Glow Stakes over 1,400m in December 2023. She’s yet to finish any further back than second but we’ll certainly learn more about her depth today.
SELECTIONS: 1. LEARNING TO FLY, 12. COMMEMORATIVE, 9. FACILE, 2. KRISTILLI & 6. MIRAVAL ROSE
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