 Expert - Jack Milner | |
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| Veteran journalist Jack Milner has been involved in horseracing since 1972. From then on he followed the sport closely so in 2006 when he was offered the position with Phumelela Gaming & Leisure as Managing Editor of their Publishing Department, he jumped at the chance. He is also instrumental in sending tips and previews to international customers who subscribe to South African racing. Milner is known to be an astute studier of form who reads a race very well. He is one of the leading tipsters in the country where he has a big following. He has attended international events such as the English Derby and Oaks, Royal Ascot and the Melbourne Cup. | |
Expert Column for SA Derby Day (S2) (Jack Milner)
S2-1 Empress Club Stakes
Having won both the G2 Gauteng Fillies Guineas and the G1 SA Fillies Classic, GIMME A NOTHER could have earned her connections a R1-million bonus by winning the SA Oaks and securing the Triple Tiara. However, the prestige of a second G1 win at the age of three, and the future value it could add to this filly as a broodmare, has resulted in her being declared for the Empress Club Stakes. To say that she has won all of her six career races with consummate ease, would actually be somewhat of an understatement. It also makes a lot more sense sending her out over 1,600m – a distance she has triumphed over four times. Unsurprisingly, J P van der Merwe will ride her again.
HUMDINGER, stable companion to GIMME A NOTHER, looks the one to get closest to the favourite. The 5YO mare has two G2 victories to her name and has finished runner-up in her last two, suggesting she is well on her way to regaining her best form. Although 1,600m is the upper limit of her distance range, she is the second highest rated runner in the field for good reason.
BAVARIAN BEAUTY trained by Tony Peter, is also not out of it. She set a blistering pace in the G1 SA Fillies Classic when doing the frontrunning, but couldn’t keep it up. Over the slightly shorter distance she could get closer, especially with Calvin Habib getting a second chance aboard her.
MRS GERIATRIX is another who could challenge, but she will have to regain the form she showed as a juvenile. Trained by Sean Tarry, MRS GERIATRIX was obviously a very early bloomer, but with Richard Fourie still in the saddle she could bounce back.
EMIRATE GINA is the lurker who could catch bettors with their pants around their ankles. However, Roy Magner’s runner must be kept safe.
SELECTIONS: 6. GIMME A NOTHER, 1. HUMDINGER, 3. EMIRATE GINA, 8. BAVARIAN BEAUTY & 7. MRS GERIATRIX
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-1: Multiple – 6. GIMME A NOTHER & 1. HUMDINGER
S2-2: Multiple – 12. GOLDEN SICKLE & 3. THUNDERSTRUCK
S2-2 Computaform Sprint
The Computaform Sprint is a dash down the straight and is all over in around 56 seconds. There are three main protagonists likely to dominate this event – GOLDEN SICKLE, THUNDERSTRUCK and DYCE – but there are a few others with both the speed and class to grab a victory if the others fail.
In January, DYCE, trained by Lucky Houdalakis, defeated THUNDERSTRUCK in the G1 Cape Flying Championship in Kenilworth over 1,000m by 0.4 lengths, but it could be a different proposition this time. THUNDERSTRUCK ended up in the front almost from the off and that allowed DYCE to hunt him the whole way. With 200m to race Craig Zackey pushed DYCE into the lead and he managed to hold off THUNDERSTRUCK all the way to the line. The main concern is that when DYCE returned to the Turffontein, he ran well below his best in what was to be his warm-up race for the Computaform Sprint and he faded right out to finish 12th, beaten by 11.1 lengths to MOVER AND SHAKER. If Houdalakis has managed to sort out the problem, DYCE would have to be a contender but THUNDERSTRUCK is ultra-consistent, so Sean Tarry’s charge is taken to reverse the placings this time.
Also coming into this race as one of the best weighted runners is speedy filly GOLDEN SICKLE, who has won all of her four races over the same course and distance. The Tony Peter-trained daughter of VERCINGETORIX could run this field off their feet as she gets a sex allowance and a weight-for-age allowance so she will be carrying just 122lbs. That makes her the best weighted runner. She won the Bauhinia Handicap last time by 2.5 lengths, carrying 138lbs and she never looked like throwing in the towel. The stable is on top form and with regular jockey Calvin Habib in the irons, GOLDEN SICKLE could just prove too speedy for her male rivals.
WILLIAM ROBERTSON is a top-class performer but is better over 1,200m. This Corne Spies-trained runner will be coming at them in the closing stages but is unlikely to get there in time.
ZIYASHA is another with loads of early speed and should be a contender going into the final 200m. However, whether he has the class to hold off this class of sprinter only the race will tell.
SELECTIONS: 12. GOLDEN SICKLE, 3. THUNDERSTRUCK, 1. DYCE, 2. WILLIAM ROBERTSON & 8. ZIYASHA
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-2: Multiple – 12. GOLDEN SICKLE & 3. THUNDERSTRUCK
S2-3: Multiple – 6. MARAUDING HORDE & 1. PURPLE PITCHER
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-2: Multiple – 12. GOLDEN SICKLE, 3. THUNDERSTRUCK & 1. DYCE
S2-3: Multiple – 6. MARAUDING HORDE, 1. PURPLE PITCHER & 5. PRESLEY
S2-4: Multiple – 7. ROYAL VICTORY, 3. COUSIN CASEY & 8. SON OF RAJ
S2-3 SA Derby
Looking at the way MARAUDING HORDE has gone about his business it is evident that this son of VERCINGETORIX is something special. Highly progressive, he has scored three in a row, the last two over 2,000m, so there’s no doubt about his ability to go the distance in the G1 SA Derby over 2,450m. Although he is still maturing, Mike de Kock’s charge has proven that he has big match temperament when scoring a 4.25 lengths victory in the Listed race over 2,000m in his penultimate. This will be his first G1 contest, but judged on his form and ability, he ought to be more than ready to make it a winning step up with Marco V’Rensburg again in the irons. Bettors should look beyond his merit rating as he has a lot more to come.
PURPLE PITCHER trained by Robyn Klaasen, on the other hand, already boasts six victories, which includes a G1 1,800m SA Classic in his last start and the G2 1,600m Dingaans. Kabelo Matsunyane will be in the saddle and the pair have a near-perfect record of six wins from seven runs when teaming up. PURPLE PITCHER does make a huge jump up in distance, but he ought to have no problem staying all the way.
The surprise package in the field could well be the J A Janse van Vuuren-trained PRESLEY. Although he didn’t impress in his only attempt over 1,800m, he has won twice over 1,600m. PRESLEY also beat MARAUDING HORDE when the latter was on debut. Winner of three of his last four, he is untried over this distance, so could be anything.
The only runner in the field proven over marathon distances is Stuart Pettigrew’s TWENTY DRACHMA’S. Having won twice over 2,400m, this DANON PLATINA gelding looks a solid stayer in the making.
GEORGE HANDEL trained by Fanie Bronkhorst completes the short list. He finished a 4.25-length second to MARAUDING HORDE over 2,000m last time out. If he stays, he’ll be in the picture.
SELECTIONS: 6. MARAUDING HORDE, 1. PURPLE PITCHER, 5. PRESLEY, 9. TWENTY DRACHMA’S & 8. GEORGE HANDEL
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-3: Multiple – 6. MARAUDING HORDE & 1. PURPLE PITCHER
S2-4: Multiple – 7. ROYAL VICTORY & 3. COUSIN CASEY
S2-4 World Pool Premier's Champions Challenge
The G1 World Pool Premier’s Champions Challenge over 2,000m sees the return of G1 Summer Cup winner ROYAL VICTORY, who won that race over this course and distance in November last year.
Trained in Durban by Nathan Kotzen, this PATHFORK gelding has blossomed as a 4YO and is getting better with every start. Muzi Yeni, who rode him to victory in the G1 Summer Cup, has been in Durban working ROYAL VICTORY and declared his satisfaction with what he has seen and believe he is doing exceptionally well, think he is the horse they will all have to beat. ROYAL VICTORY has an excellent record in Turffontein with two wins and two places from six runs. Should be one of the leading contenders in this field.
COUSIN CASEY has loads of ability but many pundits believe he is questionable over 2,000m which is supported by only one fourth place in three starts over the distance. But he has had a good prep coming into this race with a third place over 1,400m and a commendable fourth place behind MAIN DEFENDER in the G1 Horse Chestnut Stakes over 1,600m. He does have a top jockey Richard Fourie in the irons and no doubt trainer Sean Tarry will have him at the top of his game come Saturday.
SON OF RAJ won the G1 SA Derby last year in spectacular fashion but has not repeated anything close to that form and has not placed in six starts since. However, he did run well enough in the G1 Horse Chestnut Stakes, despite suffering interference and could be a threat in this. He also has a top jockey in S'Manga Khumalo.
Last year’s winner, PUERTO MANZANO, is back in action but has not been at his best of late. However, if he finds his old spark, he will prove very dangerous in this field. What is of particular significance is that jockey Gavin Lerena has stayed with him for this race as he would have had a number of options open to him. Needs to be included in all bets.
DAVE THE KING comes into this race as the best weighted runner but all he has won are three races over 1,200m. His rating is made up of places behind the likes of CHARLES DICKENS and PRINCESS CALLA. He is strange in that he has been placed in some G1 features so has plenty ability, but he does struggle to find the No 1 box. Nevertheless, one has to respect a combination of multiple champions, trainer Mike de Kock and jockey Piere Strydom.
SELECTIONS: 7. ROYAL VICTORY, 3. COUSIN CASEY, 8. SON OF RAJ, 2. PUERTO MANZANO & 1. DAVE THE KING
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