Tim Carroll 's Bio

Tim started off as a jockey in Australia before pursuing a media career. He is a highly experienced and respected racing presenter who has been based in England since 2005. Tim has travelled the world covering many of the major meetings, including Royal Ascot, The Epsom Derby, The International meeting from Sha Tin, The Dubai World Cup, The Everest, The Saudi Cup and The Breeders. He is currently a presenter for Sky Sports Racing, specialising in both the local and international scene. Tim is a regular contributor to the At The Races Website where his twice weekly tipping column on Hong Kong racing has gathered a strong following.

Newmarket Racecourse – Track Analysis (2000 Guineas Day):

Newmarket, which is known as the headquarters of British horse racing, consists of the two racecourses, The July Course, and the Rowley Mile Course. The Rowley Mile Course, which is the course that stages the 2000 Guineas Day, is in the shape of a right handed turning dog-leg, stretching over 4000m, with a straight of 2000m, which is the longest in Britain.

It is a wide-open track, fair in nature, encouraging strongly run races, with minor undulations 400m from the finish. They run downhill from the 400m to the 200m, they then reach what is known as the ‘dip’, this is a spot where horses can become unbalanced, thus riders need to be careful. They then face a challenging uphill finish over the final 200m, which has seen plenty caught in the closing stages.

Over the straight course of Rowley Mile Course, there can be a draw bias, more so in larger fields, but not so much in smaller fields where they tend to bunch down the centre of the track. The draw bias in larger fields is hard to predict, especially given that the rails are constantly moved due to the amount of racing, thus it is difficult to be conclusive about any overall bias, but if they do split, it is considered beneficial if riders can be part of the group that sets the pace.

Nine turf races will be simulcast from 2000 Guineas Day this year.

For the 1000m G3 Palace House Stakes, as is the case with all distances, the low barriers are drawn on the far with high numbers on the grandstand side. The barriers are placed half way up the straight, usually in a central position, and in smaller fields they tend to bunch down the centre of the track, but can split into more than one group in larger fields.

There are three races over 1200m, the Listed Ellen Chaloner Stakes, the 4yo+ Handicap and the 3yo 0-100 Handicap, the same dynamics apply as the 1000m, but keep in mind the uphill finish over the final 200m, and the further the distance the more likely those who are too aggressive, or go too early, will be picked off late when going up the hill.

The 1400m 3yo 0-85 Handicap and the HKJC World Pool Handicap are also similar to the 1200m races, in smaller fields they tend to bunch down the centre of the track, but can split into more than one group in larger fields.

For the 1800m 3yo+ Handicap, the barriers once again will be placed in a central position in smaller fields, but can be moved in larger fields, and riders will usually look to come down the centre of the track in smaller fields. However, in larger fields they tend to split and in recent times, high draws on the grandstand side have a better record than those drawn low.

The 2400m 4yo+ 0-105 Handicap start is the only race on 2000 Guineas Day that is not down the straight course. They jump from 400m before the bend that leads into the straight, thus those drawn high have plenty of time to find a spot and the draw is of little consequence, although in larger fields those who like to press forward would prefer not to be drawn high.

The feature race G1 2000 Guineas Stakes is over 1600m. The barriers will be placed according to field size and rail positioning. They jump and travel on what is mostly a flat straight course, before arriving at the undulations and the downhill run 400m from home. They then hit the ‘dip’ before an uphill run to the finish. In the last ten renewals, the field has split into at least two or more groups on four occasions. Keeping in mind they can start on one part of the track, and drift in the latter stages, however, of the last ten winners, four have predominately raced on the stand side, three down the middle, and three on the far side. Although speed dictates most races, it is notable that most winners either stalk the speed or sit midfield, with no leaders successful in the last ten renewals. Being early in the season and the first weekend of Classic action in Britain, those successful tend to be 3YO’s having their first start of the campaign, with eight of the last ten colts running first-up, whilst the other two winners were having their second start of their 3YO season.

Last year's 2000 Guineas was run on soft ground with a field of 14 going to post. On leaving the stalls, HI ROYAL took up the running with DUBAI MILE and CHALDEAN, whilst the favourite, AUGUSTE RODIN, was waited with toward the back of the field and was hampered after they had gone approximately 400m. The entire field came down the centre of the track and were closely bunched at the halfway mark. As they approached the dip, it was apparent that the favourite, AUGUSTE RODIN, was struggling and wouldn’t be involved in the finish. At the same time the leader, HI ROYAL, was wandering around and CHALDEAN started to challenge on his inside, whilst ROYAL SCOTSMAN, who had taken a tug toward the back of the field but was finding plenty down the outside. As they came out of the dip, CHALDEAN got the better of the argument and started to run away from HI ROYAL, who despite wandering across the track ran a bold race to hold onto second nearly two-lengths behind the winner, whilst ROYAL SCOTSMAN was back in third, in a time that was 5.74 seconds slower than standard.

Nine of the last ten renewals of the 2000 Guineas have been run on ground with Good in the description, the exception being last year which was held on soft going. The weather forecast shows a small possibility of light rain on race day. However, unless it rains more than the forecast is suggesting, from a recent historically perspective, it is likely the meeting will be run on ground with Good in description, but I do suggest checking the latest forecast as the meeting draws nearer.

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