 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for 2000 Guineas Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Ellen Chaloner Stakes
Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby has made an excellent start to the season and his STAR GUEST looks to have a good chance of extending his hot run of form in this 1,200m Listed contest. She ended last season with two 1,200m handicap victories on Newmarket’s July Course. This race is on the Rowley Mile, but there are distinct similarities between the two tracks. They sit side-by-side, separated by little more than 400m. This daughter of top stallion DUBAWI is bred to stay much further. Her novice win came over 1,601m on Lingfield’s polytrack but she doesn’t lack pace. She likes to race prominently and that’s usually a help at this track over 1,200m.
HERITAGE HOUSE made a promising return to action when fifth in a G3 over 1,400m at this track last month. She ran a personal best when fourth in a hot Listed contest over this course and distance in November. A strongly 1,200m might be ideal for James Fanshawe’s filly and that’s what she should get in this. She’s a 3YO and that age group have an excellent record, having been successful in six of the last 10 years.
UNEQUAL LOVE looks the type to improve significantly this season. She didn’t make her debut until last June and she soon made up for lost time by winning four races. There was a lot to like about the way she quickened from the rear to land a 1,200m Pontefract handicap and she was far from disgraced on her first try at Listed level when fourth behind FUNNY STORY over 1,200m at Newmarket.
FUNNY STORY has to shoulder a penalty for her Listed win over the same course and distance on soft ground in October. She showed a good change of pace to grab the lead close to the finish. It won’t be easy to give weight away to all her rivals, but she is proven on the ground and at the track.
AZURE ANGEL has won four of her five races on the all-weather and she didn’t get the breaks from a wide draw over 1,200m at Kempton last month. She probably hit the front too soon when fourth over 1,200m on her most recent turf start at Windsor around this time last year and should handle the surface.
SELECTIONS: 6. STAR GUEST, 9. HERITAGE HOUSE, 7. UNEQUAL LOVE, 1. FUNNY STORY & 2. AZURE ANGEL
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 6. STAR GUEST & 9. HERITAGE HOUSE
S1-2: Multiple – 1. NOBLE STYLE & 10. SUMMERGHAND
S1-2 4yo+ Handicap
NOBLE STYLE failed to live up to expectations last season after winning the G2 Gimcrack Stake over 1,200m at York on his final start in 2022. However, he holds leading prospects of getting his career back on track at Newmarket in this competitive 1,200m handicap. Defeats last year in the G1 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, the Listed Carnarvon Stakes at Newbury and the G1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot led to him being gelded ahead of his reversal in the Listed Queensferry Stakes at Chester. Despite giving weight away to all of his rivals, this will be the easiest task that the Charlie Appleby-trained son of KINGMAN has faced for some time in a race which will be run to suit.
CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD might be entering the twilight of his career at the age of eight, but the Jack Channon-trained gelding is likely to be on the premises having finished third in the 2022 renewal of this race and second 12 months ago. The SLADE POWER gelding showed he still retains plenty of ability after recently finishing second in a 1,200m handicap at Newbury, while any rain that falls will help boost his chances from near the bottom of the weights.
Finishing one place behind CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD 12 months ago was APOLLO ONE, who is likely to have been targeted at this contest for some time. Although winless last season, the P Charalambous & J Clutterbuck-trained 6YO ran some good races in defeat, most notably when finishing second in the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot and in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood.
There are plenty of familiar faces among the field, of which 10YO SUMMERGHAND makes plenty of appeal off his current handicap mark. Having been kept busy during the winter months, the David O’Meara-trained gelding finished a close up fifth in a 1,200m handicap at the track on his most recent start.
MUMS TIPPLE has done most of his recent winning on the all-weather, but he has plenty of smart turf form next to his name, including when finishing fourth in last year’s Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot. The Richard Hannon-trained FOOTSTEPSINTHESAND gelding will have the assistance of Ryan Moore in the saddle, who is two from five on him, for the first time since October 2022 which is another plus.
SELECTIONS: 1. NOBLE STYLE, 10. SUMMERGHAND, 15. CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD, 4. APOLLO ONE & 6. MUMS TIPPLE
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 1. NOBLE STYLE & 10. SUMMERGHAND
S1-3: Multiple – 13. THEORYOFEVERYTHING & 3. LIBERTY LANE
S1-3 3yo+ Handicap
William Buick has won three of the last six runnings of this 1800m handicap, so it is significant that David O’Meara has snapped up the champion jockey for THEORYOFEVERYTHING, who had some classy form for John & Thady Gosden last season. An encouraging third in the G3 Greenham Stakes at Newbury over 1,400m last spring, THEORYOFEVERYTHING did not fulfil that promise throughout the summer. He delighted O’Meara on his first run for the stable here last month, beaten only half a length into fourth place after a slow start which didn’t help. Considering that was his first race for seven months, it was a very pleasing comeback, and O’Meara is unlikely to have had him fully fit after such a long absence.
We should also take note of DUTCH DECOY, who was the unlucky horse in that race. He was stuck behind a wall of horses and when he did finally escape from the pocket, he flew home but failed narrowly to get up. DUTCH DECOY ran a terrific race over this same 1,800m in last year’s Cambridgeshire Handicap, finishing a close sixth but beating all but one from the group on the far side.
LIBERTY LANE was the subject of a big gamble in the Lincoln handicap, starting second-favourite for the competitive race at Doncaster. However, his stands side draw did not help him and he never got competitive. Jockeys described conditions as “gluey” that day, but with plenty of rain about, Karl Burke is hoping that mud-lover LIBERTY LANE might now get his favoured soft ground. He looked so effective on that ground when toughing out victory at a handicap at Doncaster over 1,600m towards the end of last season.
The Gosdens run TORITO, who won a handicap over 2,015m at Epsom on Derby Day last year. However, he was gelded in December, so has been off since Royal Ascot where he was repeatedly baulked in a G3 race, finishing only fourth.
If we forgive WESTERTON his one poor run at Newmarket last back-end – he looked not to stay the 2,400m – he had an excellent season. He won at Sandown and finished second on three other occasions, all over 2,000m, and Rossa Ryan keeps the ride.
SELECTIONS: 13. THEORYOFEVERYTHING, 3. LIBERTY LANE, 12. DUTCH DECOY, 7. WESTERTON & 2. TORITO
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 13. THEORYOFEVERYTHING & 3. LIBERTY LANE
S1-4: Multiple – 9. BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND & 3. MITBAAHY
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-3:
Banker – 13. THEORYOFEVERYTHING
Selections – 3. LIBERTY LANE, 12. DUTCH DECOY, 7. WESTERTON & 2. TORITO
S1-4:
Banker – 9. BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND
Selections – 3. MITBAAHY, 2. KERDOS & 7. VADREAM
S1-4 Palace House Stakes
BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND makes her seasonal return in the G3 Palace House Stakes, having had a good break since running, and winning, at Ayr last season. Although a lightly raced 3YO in comparison to some of her rivals, she showed some serious form at Ayr in a Listed race over 1,000m and looked like she had plenty left in the tank. It would be foolish to overlook the strength of trainer Karl Burke’s yard this season. His stable has been in hot form over the past 14 days, and you would imagine this will have been the early season plan for BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND.
MITBAAHY, trained by Charles Hills, finished an impressive fourth last time at Newmarket in the G3 Abernant Stakes over 1,200m. Stepping back down in trip to 1,000m could make the difference here and he looks to be one of the classier horses in the field should he put his best foot forward.
There’s much to be said about Clive Cox’s first-string KERDOS who tends to impress on the better ground over this distance, and with Rossa Ryan on board, is one to keep an eye on. Although disappointing in his last appearance at Bath in a handicap, the conditions looked to be a bit too testing that day and he should relish the quicker ground here.
The last one of interest is the experienced VADREAM who enters the race as the defending champion. She has plenty of mileage on the clock but if the rain arrives, she looks to have good prospects of landing back-to-back victories. Granted, she’s failed to top the podium since then, but her last effort looked positive as she stayed on strongly at the finish in the Listed Lansdown Stakes at Bath. Soft ground is important to her, though.
SELECTIONS: 9. BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND, 3. MITBAAHY, 2. KERDOS & 7. VADREAM
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 9. BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND & 3. MITBAAHY
S1-5: Multiple – 2. CITY OF TROY & 9. ROSALLION
S1-5 2000 Guineas
CITY OF TROY was a star juvenile last year and was hugely impressive in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes over 1,400m on his final start. Aidan O’Brien is the winning-most 2000 Guineas trainer, and it’s a huge vote of confidence that the Ballydoyle handler only sends one runner here. He is versatile on different grounds, having won on everything from good to soft last year, and is undoubtedly the one to beat. In fact, he has the potential to be one of the best horses to come out of Ballydoyle and if he wins here, attentions will surely turn to the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,400m next.
Richard Hannon has said his ROSALLION might be the best horse he has ever trained. He looked a very smart 2YO, finishing last season with G1 glory in the Prix Jean Luc Lagardere at ParisLongchamp over 1,400m and should be taken seriously, but soft ground would be a worry as he’s a horse who will be seen at his best on a quicker surface.
Hannon also saddles HAATEM, who earned lots of experience as a juvenile, running 9 times. He looked exposed heading into this season but surprised many by winning the G3 Craven Stakes on his first start this year. He is ground versatile, showing a liking for different conditions last year, so don’t rule him out at a bigger price.
INISHERIN comes to the 2000 Guineas as an unexposed horse with unknown potential for his Classic campaign. His profile is likeable, with form over course and distance, finishing second on debut to subsequent Derby Trial winner BELLUM JUSTUM. He will be a big price, but showed he has ability with an eye-catching return to action at Newcastle this season, so don’t rule him out of your equations.
Godolphin runners in big races should always be taken seriously, especially when the operation only sends one runner to a G1 and NOTABLE SPEECH fits that bill. He has a slightly unusual Classic profile, doing his winning in low-profile events at Kempton this year, all over 1,600m. His times were impressive on those starts and you’d want to keep him onside for this race, with champion jockey William Buick looking to win his first 2000 Guineas.
SELECTIONS: 2. CITY OF TROY, 9. ROSALLION, 4. HAATEM, 6. INISHERIN & 8. NOTABLE SPEECH
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 2. CITY OF TROY & 9. ROSALLION
S1-6: Multiple – 7. KNIGHTSWOOD & 4. MAXI KING
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 2. CITY OF TROY
Selections – 9. ROSALLION, 4. HAATEM, 6. INISHERIN & 8. NOTABLE SPEECH
S1-6:
Banker – 7. KNIGHTSWOOD
Selections – 4. MAXI KING, 2. REAL DREAM, 1. RELENTLESS VOYAGER & 3.PERCY SHELLEY
S1-6 4yo+ 0-105 Handicap
There’s only a small field for this 2,400m handicap, but plenty could develop into top-class handicappers this season.
KNIGHTSWOOD is a typically tough performer from the Charlie Johnston yard and was only just touched off on his reappearance at Ripon over 2,409m. He hit the front quite far from home but was run down by a strong rival in the closing stages. That was still a career best performance and he seemed to take the step up in class in his stride, so he could be an improving horse this season.
MAXI KING is very lightly raced and untried over this trip. However, on the basis of his impressive reappearance win at Ripon over 1,955m on heavy ground, he should relish this extra distance. He shot clear in the final stages of that contest to win by five lengths and, while he has taken a fair rise in the handicap for that success, there should be more to come. Any rain won’t be an issue for him, but he also has form on a quicker surface, having finished second on good ground over 1,200m as a 2YO.
A model of consistency last season, REAL DREAM won two races and placed in two other strong handicaps over trips from 2,371m to 2,905m. Sir Michael Stoute’s 5YO gelding didn’t live up to expectations when sent off in York’s Ebor Handicap over 2,771m, but he should be happier in this easier contest. He has a good record when fresh too and looks set to mount a strong challenge.
If there is a Group horse in this handicap, it is likely to be Andrew Balding’s RELENTLESS VOYAGER, who finished a close third in the G2 Derby Italiano over 2,200m last season. He then ran in the G2 King Edward VII Stakes over 2,392m at Royal Ascot and while he finished sixth of six, he wasn’t disgraced in what was a very strong race. Now stepping into handicap company for the first time, he should find this much easier, but he does have a lot of weight to carry. He could have the class to overcome it but will need to be at his best against race-fit rivals.
PERCY SHELLEY completes the selections after looking like he would improve for his reappearance at Doncaster over 2,039m in March. This step back up in trip should be in his favour too, and it is still early days for him under the care of trainer David O’Meara.
SELECTIONS: 7. KNIGHTSWOOD, 4. MAXI KING, 2. REAL DREAM, 1. RELENTLESS VOYAGER & 3. PERCY SHELLEY
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 7. KNIGHTSWOOD & 4. MAXI KING
S1-7: Multiple – 3. SHAGRAAN & 2. DAPPER VALLEY
S1-7 3yo 0-100 Handicap
SHAGRAAN, who won a 1,211m novices’ race as a 2YO last year, looks to have taken a step forward this season as he was only narrowly beaten on his reappearance a week ago at Sandown over 1,009m. Stepping back up to 1,200m here, the trip he won over last year, could see him go one better if conditions remain suitable. He seems to be better on quicker ground, so connections will be hoping that the weather stays dry for him.
DAPPER VALLEY was eye-catching on his seasonal debut two weeks ago over this course and distance, keeping on well for third place, just one length behind the winner. He can be expected to improve on this performance now and, unlike SHAGRAAN, he won’t mind if there is some rain ahead of Saturday. He didn’t prove good enough for Listed company last term, but now back in handicaps, he should have a strong chance.
MOSWAAT, from the in-form stable of Roger Varian, might prove to be better than his current handicap mark, given he was third in a Listed race over 1,202m in very testing conditions on his last start in October last year. Given better ground and easier company in a handicap, he should have a decent chance and has form on softer ground if there is rain ahead of the race.
Although lower in the ratings, TREFOR ran very well on seasonal reappearance for a close second place over course and distance ahead of DAPPER VALLEY two weeks ago. With in-form rider Saffie Osborne back in the saddle, another good run can be expected, although his chances will be better if ground conditions remain good, as his form from last year on soft ground does not read well.
Topping the ratings is JAMES’S DELIGHT, who was beaten a length by TREFOR mid-way through his 2YO season at Windsor over 1,200m. He took a big step forward on debut this year, winning impressively over 1,200m at Pontefract in testing conditions, but subsequently disappointed in the G3 Greenham Stakes over 1,400m. He should find handicap company easier and could run into a place.
SELECTIONS: 3. SHAGRAAN, 2. DAPPER VALLEY, 4. MOSWAAT, 10. TREFOR & 1. JAMES’S DELIGHT
7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 3. SHAGRAAN & 2. DAPPER VALLEY
S1-8: Multiple – 7. PUREFOY & 2. CHRISTIAN DAVID
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 3. SHAGRAAN, 2. DAPPER VALLEY & 4. MOSWAAT
S1-8: Multiple – 7. PUREFOY, 2. CHRISTIAN DAVID & 11. ROCKSTAR ICON
S1-9: Multiple – 7. CRACK SHOT, 4. DARKNESS & 14. BODORGAN
S1-8 3yo 0-85 Handicap
A strong group of largely unexposed 3YOs line up for the in this handicap over 1,400m.
Trainer Andrew Balding has made a fast start to the UK Flat season and is represented by the likeable PUREFOY here. He was last seen winning comfortably on the all-weather at Lingfield over 1,401m and there looks to be more to come from the son of ULYSSES. His rise in the handicap as a result of that performance means he’ll have to put in another career best, but the manner of that win suggested he has plenty more to offer.
CHRISTIAN DAVID catches the eye with Ryan Moore in the saddle. He finished a close-up third over 1,400m at Newbury on his last start, only beaten by a neck, and should be involved in the finish if taking another step forward. He also has form over the same course and distance as a 2YO, finishing third in a maiden that’s worked out well, with the winner of that event finishing third in the G3 Craven Stakes over 1,600m last month, while the second, fourth and sixth have all gone on to win.
ROCKSTAR ICON is making his seasonal reappearance and has to be respected on the face of his juvenile form. He was the runner-up in a novice race at Haydock over 1,393m on his second career start and the form of that race is working out well, with the third-place horse winning next time out and going on to finish fourth in a G3 contest over 1,600m in Ireland. ROCKSTAR ICON then won his third and final start of 2023, a novice event at Lingfield over 1,401m, and the runner-up has come out and won since. If he’s fully tuned up for his first start of 2024, then he has an obvious chance.
LOVE BILLY BOY remains of interest despite a mediocre seasonal reappearance last month. He finished eighth of 17 at this track over 1,200m, but travelled well throughout and just didn’t have the finishing kick to get involved over that trip. He did, however, stay on well past a couple of tiring rivals and may be seen to better effect now over 1,400m.
PRESSURE’S ON was narrowly denied over the same course and distance on his seasonal reappearance and has to be of interest again. He ran on really strongly in the final furlong and should be fitter for that effort.
SELECTIONS: 7. PUREFOY, 2. CHRISTIAN DAVID, 11. ROCKSTAR ICON, 9. LOVE BILLY BOY & 12. PRESSURE’S ON
8TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-8: Multiple – 7. PUREFOY & 2. CHRISTIAN DAVID
S1-9: Multiple – 7. CRACK SHOT & 4. DARKNESS
S1-9 HKJC World Pool Handicap
This HKJC World Pool Handicap over 1,600m has a typically competitive look to it.
A good starting point is CRACK SHOT, who has only had six career starts to date and displayed plenty of promise last season. He beat a good rival over this trip at Newbury last summer and was then thought good enough to contest the red-hot Cambridgeshire Handicap over 1,800m. It’s likely that big-field handicap came too soon for Ed Walker’s runner, but he should have learnt plenty from the experience. He looks competitively handicapped and looks likely to be involved in the finish.
DARKNESS is a horse that continues to drop down in ratings and is becoming well-handicapped. David O’Meara’s 6YO gelding ran many good races in more competitive handicaps than this last season, with a standout being his fourth in Goodwood’s Golden Mile over 1,600m, and he did manage a win in a Newmarket handicap over this trip. He had a prep run at Chelmsford over 1,400m last month and should be capable of showing his best form now.
The Charles Hills-trained BODORGAN finished behind DARKNESS at Newmarket last season. His form tailed off a bit towards the end of the campaign, but he returned on his seasonal debut with a promising run, when finishing sixth but only beaten just 1.3 lengths over this course and distance. He looks best suited to good ground, so wouldn’t want much rain, but granted his ideal conditions, he is capable of going well.
ROWAYEH ran well in three handicaps last season, winning the first at Sandown over 1,600m, before finishing a close third at Goodwood over 1,600m. She may well have found the 2,051m trip too much of a stretch on her most recent start at York, where she also raced too keenly through the early stages. She looks versatile regarding ground and back at this trip could go well on her seasonal reappearance.
LEGEND OF LEROS looked a potentially nice sort after winning a Doncaster maiden over 1,400m as a 2YO but didn’t go on from that last season. However, he produced his best effort in a handicap when finishing fourth at Kempton over 1,600m in December, suggesting that he could be coming back to himself. He’s been gelded in the off season and returns with a first-time tongue tie, so if those things make a difference, then he could bounce back to form.
SELECTIONS: 7. CRACK SHOT, 4. DARKNESS, 14. BODORGAN, 5. ROWAYEH & 8. LEGEND OF LEROS
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