Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Tokyo Racecourse – Track Analysis (Victoria Mile Day):

Tokyo Racecourse is an anti-clockwise oval track. Outer turf track is 2083.1m long, with 525.9m homestretch, which is the second longest in JRA’s tracks after Niigata. Backstretch is 400m long. There are two chutes to set the stalls for races over 1800m and 2000m. The width of the course is the widest in JRA’s tracks. The bend is gentle and it is described as “galloping course”. While it is recognized in general that the true ability of runners reflects on the results, it is the tendency that the runners who are off the pace during former part of race and deliver strong challenge on homestretch make good showing at Tokyo Racecourse. Inner dirt track is 1899m long, with 501.6m homestretch, the highest point is from 200m before the finishing line to finishing line on the homestretch and the middle of the far turn to the top of homestretch is the lowest point of the course.

This year, four turf races and three dirt races from the Victoria Mile Day will be simulcast to Hong Kong.

The feature race, G1 Victoria Mile and Teletama Hai are conducted at 1600m turf course. Starting gate is set at the top of the backstretch and distance from starting gate to the entrance of far turn is 550m. While it is analyzed there is no draw bias, statistics shows middle numbers are preferable. The distance from the exit of far turn to winning post is 525.9m. 160m long sharp rise, with difference in height of 2m, begins at around 400m to 300m from home. Final 300m is flat. It is tendency that closers who have strong late kick enjoy success at this course. And this is recognized as “tough mile”, and is analyzed runners are required stamina to stay 2000m, even though the actual distance is 1600m. Track record is 1 minute and 30.5 seconds, established by NORMCORE when she won the Victoria Mile in 2019.

For the 1800m 3yo 1 win and 4yo and up 1 win, starting gate is set on chute at middle of near turn. Distance from starting gate to the entrance of bend, through which runners are led to backstretch is 160m long. It is notable that wide draw is disadvantage and tempo tends to be moderate at this course. Meanwhile, “turn of foot” on homestretch is the key factor to the result.

For the dirt races, the starting gate of the 1600m Vodka Cup is set at turf course at the final part of near turn and runners run on turf for approximately 150m from starting gate. A runner who jumps from the widest draw run on turf for 30m longer than a runner who jumps from barrier one. Therefore, wide draw is preferable at this course. Distance from starting gate to entrance of far turn is 640m and tempo at beginning of race tends to be quick at this course. Track record is 1 minute and 33.5 seconds, and it is not easy to complete wire-to-wire victory and tracking or rallying tactics work well at this course.

For 1400m 3yo 1 win and BS Eleven Sho , starting gate is set at early part of backstretch and distance from starting gate to entrance of far turn is 442m. There is no draw bias at this course and tempo tends to be quick at this course. Various tactics work at this course, where front runners and closers have equal chance.

Last year’s G1 Victoria Mile was conducted at firm going track. While tempo of race was moderate, STARS ON EARTH and NAMUR took fifth and seventh position in 16 runners field. NAMUR was involved in traffic jam, being bumped by horses of both side at middle of backstretch, and lost position. SODASHI tracked a front runner from second position and hit the front a furlong out. SONGLINE who was still at eighth position at top of homestretch, delivered strong challenge going along the rail and caught SODASHI by head at the wire. STARS ON EARTH finished third, while NAMUR was beaten seventh.

Spring meeting at Tokyo Racecourse started on 20th April and 12th May is eighth day of the meeting. As temporary rail is set at 3m from inside rail on turf track before the raceday, surface of turf track should be fresh and hold good cushion on Victoria Mile Day. Meanwhile, less amount of rain is forecasted at area of Tokyo Racecourse on 7th and 8th May, and it does not affect the track condition. The track is very likely that going on the raceday is good.

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