Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

 

Expert Column for Lockinge Stakes Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)

 

S2-1     Aston Park Stakes

 

Newbury’s Lockinge card kicks off with the G3 Aston Park Stakes over 2,406m for 4YOs and above.

 

Royal runner DESERT HERO is the headline entry, arriving here as a Royal Ascot winner over 2,392m and with Classic-placed form after his third in the G1 St Leger Stakes over 2,905m in 2023. William Haggas’ colt made a pleasing reappearance at Sandown in late April, when second over the inadequate 1,990m trip in the G3 Gordon Richards Stakes. DESERT HERO will appreciate this 2,406m distance and with race fitness on his side, he is the one to beat.

 

Ralph Beckett’s SALT BAY also has the benefit of a run this season after finishing a close third over this course and distance in the G3 Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Stakes on 20 April. He has a patchy form profile and hasn’t won a race since his debut in September 2022, but his twice-placed record at Newbury is eye-catching and he’s worth considering, especially if the ground softens.

 

MIDDLE EARTH was a three-time winner as a 3YO for John & Thady Gosden, finishing on a high last year by winning the Listed Noel Murless Stakes over 2,831m at Ascot. His best form is on a firmer surface, so he will want the rain to stay away from Newbury, but if it does, he’s one to keep on side as an improving 4YO under Oisin Murphy.

 

SO MOONSTRUCK is the complete unknown in the race. He hasn’t run since his third in the 2022 G1 Deutsches Derby over 2,400m, but it’s interesting that his new trainer, Owen Burrows, has chosen this race to take the wraps off his new recruit. He might not be quite sharp enough to win, but the trip will suit and he could run into a place.

 

BOLSTER looked like a nice prospect at the start of last season, but ultimately disappointed as he failed to build on an impressive seasonal reappearance win at Windsor over 2,000m. He has since changed trainers from Simon & Ed Crisford to Karl Burke for 2024 and looked a rejuvenated horse when dominant in victory at Pontefract on his seasonal bow over 2,005m last month. This race represents a significant rise in class, but he’s clearly on the up and rates as one to watch here too.

 

SELECTIONS: 3. DESERT HERO, 8. SALT BAY, 7. MIDDLE EARTH, 9. SO MOONSTRUCK & 1. BOLSTER

 

1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-1: Multiple – 3. DESERT HERO & 8. SALT BAY
S2-2: Multiple – 9. POCKLINGTON & 13. RELIEF RALLY

 

S2-2     Carnarvon Stakes

 

This year’s G1 2000 Guineas hero NOTABLE SPEECH belied the claim that horses who have previously only run on the all-weather cannot win a Classic on their first race on turf.

 

Doubtless, that success will have encouraged trainer Geoff Oldroyd to pitch his dual tapeta winner POCKLINGTON into this 1,200m Listed sprint, having won both his races so far on the tapeta. POCKLINGTON, unraced as a 2YO, looked as if he had inherited plenty of speed from his four-time G1-winning sire BLUE POINT when he won twice over this 1,200m at Newcastle. He beat Coventry Stakes runner-up ARMY ETHOS on the second occasion, and the fact that he has an entry for the G1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot suggests that connections have always considered him above average.

 

James Doyle has ridden the winner of this race three times in the last eight years. He’ll be hoping to strike again with MISTER SKETCH, who would have a solid chance if he could reproduce his close second in last year’s G2 Mill Reef Stakes over this course and distance. MISTER SKETCH made his seasonal debut in the G3 Greenham Stakes over 1,400m at Newbury last month. He was only beaten three lengths, having been denied a clear run throughout the final 200m, and that race is bound to bring him on.

 

ROOM SERVICE was only around a length behind MISTER SKETCH in that race, having also suffered interference, so he too could be in the mix.

 

The form horse is undoubtedly RELIEF RALLY, the runner-up of G2 Queen Mary Stakes over 1,000m, whose only defeat in five races last year was when she was beaten a nose at Royal Ascot. Having justified heavy support to win the Weatherbys Super Sprint over 1,031m over this course in July, she then showed that this 1,200m was no problem when stepping up in class for an impressive success in the G2 Lowther Stakes at York. Switching back down in trip will suit RELIEF RALLY, whose winning run came to an end in the G3 Dubai Duty Free Stakes over 1,400m at Newbury last month.

 

JAMES’S DELIGHT won first time out over this 1,200m last year, but his form has blossomed since he was gelded in the winter. He has won two of his three races this year but was outclassed in the G3 Greenham Stakes over 1,400m here.

 

SELECTIONS: 9. POCKLINGTON, 13. RELIEF RALLY, 8. MISTER SKETCH, 10. ROOM SERVICE & 5. JAMES’S DELIGHT

 

2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-2: Multiple – 9. POCKLINGTON & 13. RELIEF RALLY
S2-3: Multiple – 3. KING’S GAMBIT & 6. GOODWOOD ODYSSEY

 

S2-3     London Gold Cup

 

The 2,006m London Gold Cup might only be a handicap but it usually takes a Group-class horse to land this competitive contest packed full of progressive 3YOs.

 

KING’S GAMBIT ended last season with an excellent second in a traditionally strong 1,600m Newbury novice race. This longer distance will suit KING’S GAMBIT and he could easily be up to Group level in the future. Roger Charlton, who handed sole control of his stables to his son Harry this season, won this race three times in the last eight years.

 

GOODWOOD ODYSSEY looked well treated ahead of his handicap debut at Sandown. He had to overcome traffic problems, but he showed a smart finishing kick when in the clear to run out a convincing winner of that 1,990m contest..

 

There’s every chance he will be competitive in Group races and any more rain would help.

 

Aidan O’Brien trained the winner of this race last year and his CHANTILLY improved a lot on his juvenile form when an impressive winner at Leopardstown over 2,000m last month. This is a tougher race, but he has the potential to take another step forward.

 

FIGHTER COMMAND was beaten at odds-on on his first start of the season but that came when John & Thady Gosden’s runners were generally needing their comeback races. He made most of the running to get off the mark in a 2,000m Windsor maiden on his next run and steps into handicaps with a bright future ahead of him. As a son of DUBAWI, he has the pedigree to progress into a smart middle-distance performer.

 

PERSICA didn’t have much chance, in hindsight, when taking on subsequent 2000 Guineas winner NOTABLE SPEECH over 1,600m on Kempton’s polytrack on his first start of the season. It was a good effort to finish third in that conditions contest and he is bred to relish the step up to 2,006m for the first time. He doesn’t lack speed as he won races over 1,200m and 1,600m last season. The prospect of a strong pace over this longer distance should allow him to use his ability to quicken to good effect.

 

SELECTIONS: 3. KING’S GAMBIT, 6. GOODWOOD ODYSSEY, 2. CHANTILLY, 10. FIGHTER COMMAND & 5.  PERSICA

 

3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-3: Multiple – 3. KING’S GAMBIT & 6. GOODWOOD ODYSSEY
S2-4: Multiple – 11. INSPIRAL & 2. BIG ROCK

 

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-3: Multiple – 3. KING’S GAMBIT, 6. GOODWOOD ODYSSEY & 2. CHANTILLY
S2-4: Multiple – 11. INSPIRAL, 2. BIG ROCK & 3. CHARYN
S2-5: Multiple – 5. FERROUS, 6. WILTSHIRE & 8. UNDER THE TWILIGHT

 

S2-4     Lockinge Stakes

 

Newbury’s G1 Lockinge Stakes is one of the premier 1,600m races of the UK Flat season.

 

A standout in this renewal is INSPIRAL, who is a six-time G1 winner. The 5YO mare had an excellent season last year, winning three races at the highest level, including when comfortably beating BIG ROCK in the G1 Prix Jacques le Marois over 1,600m at Deauville. She then went on to win the G1 Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket and ended her season with a narrow success in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf over 2,000m at Santa Anita. INSPIRAL goes well when fresh, and provided there isn’t too much rain around and the ground doesn’t get too soft, she should take a bit of beating.

 

The reopposing BIG ROCK is making his first start for trainer Maurizio Guarnieri, since switching from the stable of Christopher Head. He was last seen making all the running to win the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes in impressive style at Ascot in October, a win which came on his favoured soft ground. The ground at Newbury might not be soft enough to make this the test over 1,600m that he relishes, and he could need this first run of the season too.

 

CHARYN has looked a much-improved horse in his two starts this season. An easy win on reappearance in a Listed race at Doncaster over 1,600m, was followed by a G2 win at Sandown. He picked up well in the closing stages of that contest, and won going away at the line, so it looked like another improved performance. Having not quite reached G1 level as a 3YO, now a year older, he is well worth another shot at the highest level. Any softening of the ground wouldn’t be an issue and he looks set to go well.

 

There was little over a length between CHARYN and POKER FACE at Sandown last time, and the latter was making his return to action. He travelled noticeably well into the race and looked the likeliest winner 200m out, and it may be that a lack of race-fitness in the final stages caught him out. With that run behind him, he can improve further and should be capable of getting in the places.

 

Ryan Moore is an interesting jockey booking on HI ROYAL, who has a bit to find on form but returned with a promising effort when third in the G3 Earl of Sefton Stakes over 1,800m at Newmarket, and this drop back in trip should suit him.

 

SELECTIONS: 11. INSPIRAL, 2. BIG ROCK, 3. CHARYN, 7. POKER FACE & 6. HI ROYAL

 

4th DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-4: Multiple – 11. INSPIRAL & 2. BIG ROCK
S2-5: Multiple – 5. FERROUS & 6. WILTSHIRE

 

S2-5     HKJC World Pool Handicap

 

FERROUS appears set for a bold bid in search of completing a hat-trick of victories for the year on his return to turf in the HKJC World Pool Handicap at Newbury. The Jack Channon-trained 4YO has looked a different proposition since undergoing a gelding operation after registering wins in a 1,218m handicap at Wolverhampton and a 1,200m handicap at Kempton. Although now on a career high mark, connections evidently think there is more to come from FERROUS, who will be at home on the soft ground, after handing him an entry in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot.

 

WILTSHIRE made his first start for William Haggas a winning one in a 1,200m handicap at Newbury last time out. While the form of that race hasn’t produced many subsequent winners it was a performance to suggest that the lightly raced 4YO was better than his slender margin of victory. Having proved effective with give in the ground on his last start he is likely to be on the premises once again.

 

UNDER THE TWILIGHT signed off last season when prevailing in soft conditions in a 1,200m handicap at Salisbury before making a winning return in a 1,211m handicap at Windsor. The 6YO mare finished third in a similar contest on this card 12 months ago and with conditions not expected to be an issue she is likely to be in the mix at the finish.

 

GISBURN was beaten 5 lengths back in 13th by WILTSHIRE on his previous start at the track, but he saves his best when the going is soft and is now only slightly above his last winning mark. The Richard Hannon-trained 5YO ran on well to take third on his most recent appearance in a 1,200m handicap at Goodwood to suggest his turn is near. And with champion jockey William Buick a rare booking for the stable it suggests GISBURN will be thereabouts.

 

UNITED APPROACH has not been sighted for more than a year, however the James Tate-trained 4YO won a novice contest over 1,202m on soft ground at Doncaster on his last start in April 2023. Having also won with soft in the going description on his second start at Ayr, conditions should be to the liking of the FASTNET ROCK colt who could turn out to be better than his current handicap mark.

 

SELECTIONS: 5. FERROUS, 6. WILTSHIRE, 8. UNDER THE TWILIGHT, 9. GISBURN & 10. UNITED APPROACH

 

 

 

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