 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
|---|---|
| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby)
Tokyo Yushun, Japanese Derby, was the race for Japanese-bred 3YOs only until 2000. The regulation was changed in 2001 and the best result by foreign-bred so far was seen in 2002, when American-bred SYMBOLI KRIS S finished second. I believe the 91st Japanese Derby at Tokyo on 26th May opens a new chapter in the history by creating first foreign-bred winner of Japanese Derby.
SHIN EMPEROR is French-bred colt by SIYOUNI and full brother to SOTTSASS, winner of three G1s including G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. He was bought at Arqana August Sale in 2022 by Yoshito Yahagi for Susumu Fujita for 2.1 million euro, the highest price at the session. In fact, I was attending at the sale and very impressed with him as he had a perfect conformation and was very good mover. He won a maiden at Tokyo by three lengths and G3 Kyoto Nisai Stakes easily last year. Then, he lost three races in a row, all of which are races over 2,000m at Nakayama. I assess Nakayama is not a suitable track for SHIN EMPEROR, who prefers wide galloping track. And I am sure extra 400m could be a big help for him. My favourite in Japanese Derby over 2,400m at Tokyo Racecourse is SHIN EMPEROR .
REGALEIRA, who is the only filly in this field is my second choice. She won the G1 Hopeful Stakes on 28th December at Nakayama and became the first female winner in the history of Hopeful Stakes. Her attempt to win the Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), first leg of Japanese Triple Crown at Nakayama on 14th April, was foiled and she was beaten sixth there. Tetsuya Kimura, who trains the filly, decides to send her to Derby, instead of Oaks, since he is still determined REGALEIRA is competitive against colts and her best trip is 2,400m. It is note-worthy that CERVINIA, who is trained by Tetsuya Kimura as well, was disappointing 13th in G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) on 7th April and bounced back to win the G1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) on 19th May.
5 out of 18 elite 3YOs in the Derby are colts by KIZUNA, who is widely recognized as the best successor of DEEP IMPACT at stud. Both of my third and fourth choice are colts by KIZUNA, and both of them are unbeaten so far. JUSTIN MILANO, winner of the G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), is my third choice. I understand he is a very talented horse, though, slight concern is found in his pedigree, as his dam, MARGOT DID, was a pure sprinter, who won the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes over 1,000m at York. It’s not a certainty if he stays 2,400m.
SIXPENCE, who won the G2 Spring Stakes at Nakayama on 17th March by 3.5 lengths, is my fourth choice. He is trained by Sakae Kunieda, 69, who has won more than 1,000 races including 22 G1s at JRA. While Kunieda hasn’t won the Japanese Derby yet, as he will retire on 28th February 2026, due to age-limit system at JRA, 2024 edition is the second last chance to win Derby for Kunieda.
SUGAR KUN, who won the G2 Aoba Sho over the same course and distance as this race on 27th April, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 13. SHIN EMPEROR, 2. REGALEIRA, 15. JUSTIN MILANO, 12. SIXPENCE & 11. SUGAR KUN
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