 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
|---|---|
| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Tattersalls Gold Cup (S3-1) and Irish 1000 Guineas (S3-2) (Bill Esdaile)
S3-1 Tattersalls Gold Cup
The G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup is a 2,100m event for 4YOs and above.
AUGUSTE RODIN is undoubtedly the star attraction, having won five G1s in his career including the 2023 Derby Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Turf, both over 2,400m. However, it would not be unkind to say that he is an inconsistent horse who has the ability to run well below par on occasion. He arrives off the back of one of those poor runs, when finishing last in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic in March, and it’s difficult to know if he’ll put his best foot forward. He is certainly the most talented performer in this field, the 2,100m trip should suit and Aidan O’Brien can be trusted to have him back to his best on the track where he won the G1 Irish Derby last year.
WHITE BIRCH looks like a horse on the up this year, coming into this race with two wins under his belt at the Curragh already this campaign, both over the 2,000m trip. His best piece of form is his third behind AUGUSTE RODIN in the G1 2023 Derby Stakes. While that would suggest he’ll struggle to turn the form around with Aidan O’Brien’s main contender, John Murphy’s charge is a consistent performer who will relish any ground conditions that he faces, and should be respected.
ELEGANT MAN will have to step up markedly on his all-weather form if he is to trouble the main players here, but he might just be about to. This 4YO has yet to run on turf in his career, but has won three out of four and only been defeated by REBEL’S ROMANCE, arguably one of the best middle-distance horses in the world. It’s unsure whether his form will translate from the synthetic, but it’s clear he has ability and could well compete over this trip, having won over 2,038m to 2,136m three times in his short career.
LUMIERE ROCK was an excellent winner over this course in the G2 Blandford Stakes last season, and Joseph O’Brien’s filly followed that with a third in the G1 Prix de l’Opera and then another good run in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. That kind of form brings her into the equation, and she should run another good race on reappearance.
Completing the selections is LORD MASSUSUS, who finished second behind WHITE BIRCH in the G2 Mooresbridge Stakes over 2,000m. That was his first start over the trip and there could be more to come from him now.
SELECTIONS: 1. AUGUSTE RODIN, 7. WHITE BIRCH, 3. ELEGANT MAN, 8. LUMIERE ROCK & 5. LORD MASSUSUS
DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-1: Multiple – 1. AUGUSTE RODIN & 7. WHITE BIRCH
S3-2: Multiple – 9. OPERA SINGER & 14. VESPERTILIO
S3-2 Irish 1000 Guineas
A field made up of British and Irish horses comes together for the Irish 1000 Guineas over 1,600m.
OPERA SINGER was a very impressive course winner last year in a 1,600m G3 race, finishing over six lengths ahead of her nearest rival, and followed this up with an equally impressive five-length win in the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac over 1,600m in October. Her trainer, Aidan O’Brien, has trained five of the last 10 winners of this race, so her chance should be very strong if appearing here in the same form. She can handle most ground, but might be at her best given a little rain.
VESPERTILIO has the benefit of a previous run this season, unlike many of her rivals. She was last seen when only narrowly beaten in the G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches over 1,600m at ParisLongchamp and could be expected to improve on that run here. She may be best on softer ground, so won’t want conditions to be too firm, but given rain she is a very likely candidate.
A LILAC ROLLA, though lower in the ratings than some of her rivals, is one of few unbeaten fillies in the race, having won all three career starts, including when beating OPERA SINGER by a head at this track over 1,400m in August. She goes on any ground and is less exposed than many of the other runners, so could have more potential than her rating suggests and is a very interesting contender.
Even less exposed than A LILAC ROLLA is AZADA, who has only had one start to date, when she won her debut over 1,419m at Leopardstown in very testing conditions in October. Despite her lack of experience, she is very well bred for this distance and should be able to handle better ground but, like OPERA SINGER, might be at her best if the ground softens slightly.
BUTTONS wasn’t beaten far by A LILAC ROLLA on her seasonal reappearance in April at Leopardstown in the G3 Ballylinch Stud 'Priory Belle' Stakes over 1,427m and improved on that performance for her next race over 1,600m at the same track, finishing second by under a length. If improving in similar fashion for this, she could serve up a surprise and certainly comes from the right stable.
SELECTIONS: 9. OPERA SINGER, 14. VESPERTILIO, 1. A LILAC ROLLA, 3. AZADA & 5. BUTTONS
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