 Expert - Brett Davis | |
|---|---|
| Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts. | |
Expert Column for Queensland Derby Day (S1) (Brett Davis)
S1-1 Fred Best Classic
STEFI MAGNETICA is the highest rated runner amongst the big field and under the set weights scale for 3YO’s is extremely difficult to beat. Her fifth placing in the G1 Doomben 10,000, against the older and established big guns, was the perfect lead up for a race of this depth. With barrier two to leave from and Tommy Berry to ride she should trail the leaders backs before pouncing in the straight.
ABOUNDING attempts to win her first G3 race. She arrives third up following two excellent wins last campaign where she displayed an overpowering turn of foot to put the opposition away. Her recent run at Doomben over 1,350m was a hard finishing third and in hindsight the wide barrier cost her the race. She’ll be spot on for this event third up and with regular rider Martin Harley aboard can run a big race.
SCHWARZ won the G3 Hawkesbury Guineas by a decisive margin over the 1,400m recently by powering away with pure class at the end. With a fifty percent win strike rate to his name, he’s building a good record, and if James McDonald was riding at this meeting, I reckon he’d be the pick. Nevertheless, Jamie Kah is a more than an adequate replacement and from the ideal draw should be right in the race.
STEPARTY has the ratings to win following an outstanding start to his career where he won his first five starts. He was then brave in defeat in the G1 Caulfield Guineas over 1,600m behind some of the best 3YO’s going around. A spell following a setback has seen him take time to return but he was honest first up in the Listed 1,200m race at Flemington. The draw looks horrid so he’s going to need luck but he’s too good a horse to leaving out.
CORNICHE had an excellent campaign last time in the G3 Gold Coast Guineas at the Sunshine Coast. It’s his first time over 1,400m here today and he’s expected to handle this race. The barrier appears awkward on paper but it could work out perfectly for him in the run, which shall allow him to be somewhere in the finish.
SELECTIONS: 17. STEFI MAGNETICA, 15. ABOUNDING, 7. SCHWARZ, 3. STEPARTY & 4. CORNICHE
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 17. STEFI MAGNETICA & 15. ABOUNDING
S1-2: Multiple – 1. I WISH I WIN & 5. ANTINO
S1-2 Kingsford Smith Cup
I WISH I WIN remains right at the top of the peaking order when it comes to Australian sprinters and standard weight for age conditions is hard to fault. He’s certainly beatable, when you analyse his career record of 6 wins from 20 starts, but at the same time impossible to leave out of calculations. He was narrowly cut down by race hardened mare BELLA NIPOTINA first up in the G1 Doomben 10,000, and she’ll be out to repeat the dose, but there’s every chance he’ll turn it around second up.
ANTINO has always been highly respected and touted as a serious horse and G1 winner of the future. He’ll receive an opportunity here to prove that’s the case as he takes on the big guns for just the second time. He was scintillating through the final 100m of his first up run where he literally dropped on the leaders final strides to win the G2 Victory Stakes. That performance was over this exact course and he’s yet to taste defeat when racing second up.
MAGIC TIME is a genuine star on the rise that’s already accumulated a pair of G1 wins and she’s only raced eleven times. She’s been freshened up since her win in the G1 All Aged Stakes on a heavy track at Randwick but was recently seen trialing superbly at the Gold Coast in preparation. Her overall record tells us she’s at her best when chasing a high speed over 1,400m. Therefore, conditions are not exactly perfect over the 1,300m but I wouldn’t be underestimating her presence.
BELLA NIPOTINA lines up for her 50th career start and she couldn’t have arrived in better form. It’ll be her 21st G1 contest and you’d be brave to suggest she won’t be thereabouts. She’s been up for a long period of time and covered plenty of miles travelling the country but handled every challenge in her impeccable stride. If she steps cleanly from the low gate and holds a position early then she could well be winning once again.
THINK ABOUT IT hasn’t saluted the judge since his win in The Everest where he had the better of I WISH I WIN on the line. A brief spell however should have rejuvenated his body and two recent barrier trials at Warwick Farm suggest that to be the case. A new jockey in Blake Shinn takes the reins from Sam Clipperton and it’s expected his overall class shall take him just about all the way, but where does he end up from the widish gate?
SELECTIONS: 1. I WISH I WIN, 5. ANTINO, 11. MAGIC TIME, 9. BELLA NIPOTINA & 2. THINK ABOUT IT
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 1. I WISH I WIN & 5. ANTINO
S1-3: Multiple – 18. AUTUMN ANGEL & 1. TANNHAUSER
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 1. I WISH I WIN, 5. ANTINO & 11. MAGIC TIME
S1-3: Multiple – 18. AUTUMN ANGEL, 1. TANNHAUSER & 2. WARMONGER
S1-4: Multiple – 19. MOESHA, 4. COEUR VOLANTE & 2. COMRADE ROSA
S1-3 Queensland Derby
AUTUMN ANGEL has plenty in her favour as she prepares to take on the boys in this year edition of the G1 Queensland Derby. Her performance to win the G1 Australian Oaks over 2,400m in April was outstanding and followed on from a quick back up in the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes the week prior, where she was narrowly defeated over the shorter distance of 2,000m. Those performances pushed her handicap rating up to 106. Add the weight allowance she receives for being a filly and a quick back up from last race’s brave placing in the G3 Rough Habit Plate, she is desperately hard to beat or oppose.
TANNHAUSER has the right pedigree and temperament, now he’s been gelded, to cope with the demands of a 2,400m contest and must be highly respect after winning the G3 Rough Habit Plate. With James McDonald riding ROMANTIC WARRIOR in Japan, Nash Rawiller gets the call up to ride and he was thrilled after drawing favourably in barrier three. From there, they’ll enjoy an economical run behind a likely strong speed and be ready to pounce after turning for home.
WARMONGER appears a genuine 2,400m horse and even a two miler and shouldn’t be underestimated despite the challenges he’ll face after landing the outside draw. His runner up effort in the G1 South Australian Derby over 2,500m was both powerful and gutsy after settling along back from those on the lead. He has the miles in his legs, handles all types of ground, but most importantly possesses a brutal turn of foot when it’s time to run at the judge.
NAVY KING has been up and going this campaign since early January so there’ll be no fitness issues to lean back on if he can’t run the trip. In fact, he’s peaking at a perfect time for a race of this calibre, after winning a 2,000m race at Flemington, and now the inform Craig Williams has called up for the ride. He’s tactically versatile and enjoys sting out the track so provided he’s handled the travel, and the occasion, he should be running well.
SABAN follows through in the same form as NAVY KING after finishing second to the aforementioned galloper last start. He may be looking for a rest after a solid first campaign but with a G1 Queensland Derby on the line it’s worth a throw at the stumps. The 2,400m looks achievable and there’s definitely better to come but he’ll need luck from the sticky draw, which is why Jamie Kah has been booked to ride.
SELECTIONS: 18. AUTUMN ANGEL, 1. TANNHAUSER, 2. WARMONGER, 5. NAVY KING & 14. SABAN
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 18. AUTUMN ANGEL & 1. TANNHAUSER
S1-4: Multiple – 19. MOESHA & 4. COEUR VOLANTE
S1-4 Helen Coughlan Stakes
MOESHA arrives fit and raring to go after competing five time this current campaign so any fitness issues won’t be an excuse. She does generally give away a start but has also raced forward so she’s tactically a little hard to read. Jamie Kah was aboard in her recent hard finishing burst when she closed into second in the G2 Tobin Bronze Stakes. That particular form out of South Australia reads strong enough for this so expect her to be finding the line when it counts.
COEUR VOLANTE elevated her status to a high mark last campaign with wins at G3 and G2 level during the Melbourne spring. She hasn’t raced since November 2023 after finishing fourth at G1 level in the Thousand Guineas at Caulfield, which may see her vulnerable first up. However, she’s a highly capable and talented individual with her best racing ahead and by all reports is ready to go.
COMRADE ROSA has the benefit of a run under the belt and the home ground advantage over most of the opposition which shouldn’t be taken for granted. She’s extremely experienced and trained by the leading stable of Tony Gollan which should count for plenty when things start getting serious in the straight. She has a superb second up record and is drawn ideally to position well and therefore rated a strong chance.
FACILE lead the field in the G3 PJ Bell Stakes at Randwick on a heavy track and was unable to be run down. By this time of the day, we’ll have a good idea on how the tracks playing and if it’s favouring those on speed, or near the rail, then she goes in. With barrier one to leave from she can probably hold the lead from those looking to cross, which shall increase her chances of being in the finish.
GREY RIVER is an on speed filly who capable of running a race at a price. Her biggest asset is absorbing early pressure before kicking hard to the line with core strength and determination. She must overcome the change in race direction to clockwise, and cope with the effects of travel, but if she does that well she’ll hold her head high in an open event.
SELECTIONS: 19. MOESHA, 4. COEUR VOLANTE, 2. COMRADE ROSA, 10. FACILE & 9. GREY RIVER
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
