 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Derby Stakes Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Hong Kong Jockey Club Lester Piggott Handicap
Trainer Andrew Balding has won three of the last six renewals of this competitive handicap over 2,015m and he looks to have lined up PORTSMOUTH for it this year. The son of GLENEAGLES ran three good races as a 2YO last year, before recording a resounding win on his reappearance this season at Epsom over 1,703m. That effort proved that he handles this unique track well, and with several horses from that race going on to win since, it looks like a decent form. He stepped up to 1,979m for the first time most recently at Goodwood and ran a good race to finish second to a progressive rival. He looks well treated and is effective on good and soft ground, so he should go well.
GOLDEN WEST won his first two starts last season, including over 1,703m at Epsom. Two runs in G3 company this season, at ParisLongchamp and Chester, have seen him well beaten, but he should be happier in this easier grade. The Karl Burke stable continues in fine form, and he could be ahead of his mark on handicap debut.
A winner over 2,199m in a reasonably strong maiden at Kempton in December, COOL LEGEND ran a solid race on handicap debut when reappearing at York a few weeks ago. William Haggas’ charge travelled well into that contest but faded at the finish and perhaps found the trip too much of a stamina test. He may also have needed that first start of the season and dropping back to 2,015m should suit him, so we can expect to see an improved performance now.
William Buick is an eye-catching booking on the Tim Easterby-trained BUBBLES WONKY, who steps into handicap company for the first time here. An impressive winner on heavy ground at Catterick last season, he reappeared when staying on strongly to finish a close second. The way he shaped there, and his pedigree suggests he should improve for this big step up in trip, and if he handles the undulations of Epsom, then he should be involved in the finish.
PERSICA ran a big race to finish fourth in the competitive London Gold Cup Handicap over 2,000m at Newbury recently, which looks the best recent form in the field. He didn’t finish as strongly as some, however, so he may well be vulnerable to stronger stayers at this trip, especially if the ground is soft.
SELECTIONS: 8. PORTSMOUTH, 3. GOLDEN WEST, 9. COOL LEGEND, 7. BUBBLES WONKY & 2. PERSICA
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-1: Multiple – 8. PORTSMOUTH & 3. GOLDEN WEST
S2-2: Multiple – 5. RUNNING LION & 7. SPARKS FLY
S2-2 Princess Elizabeth Stakes
Horses cannot talk, but how good is their memory? That is my only worry about RUNNING LION in this 1,703m G3 fillies’ event after her unhappy experience before last year’s Oaks. One of the major fancies for the fillies’ Classic, RUNNING LION kicked the back gates of the stalls seconds before the off and was withdrawn. She had gone into that race seeking a five-time but subsequently suffered sunstroke when disappointing in the G1 Prix de Diane over 2,100m at Chantilly. However, RUNNING LION undoubtedly has the best form in this race, and, having won at Lingfield, she won’t find these undulations a problem. Two unsuccessful attempts over longer trips last autumn convinced John & Thady Gosden that RUNNING LION was most effective between 1,600m to 2,000m. Furthermore, he was delighted with the filly’s comeback second to STAY ALERT in the G2 Dahlia Stakes over 1,800m at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting, as his horses have been needing their first run after such a wet spring.
SPARKS FLY made phenomenal improvement from April to October last year, winning eight races over 1,600m and 2,100m. She relishes soft ground, so the more rain the better.
SEA OF THIEVES is an interesting French raider. She suffered in some scrimmaging at Ascot in September, which affected her mentally. Consequently, the filly’s owner-breeder sent her to be trained in France, and the switch paid off immediately. She stormed up the outside to win a Listed race at ParisLongchamp in April, and the runner-up has since won in G3 company.
Remarkably, the consistent BREEGE has not won since her racecourse debut at Wetherby two years ago. However, she has rattled off five seconds since, including one in this grade over 1,400m at Goodwood.
ROYAL DRESS won twice for Richard Hannon last season. She was unlucky when a close fourth in a hot handicap at Glorious Goodwood, but was still switched to James Tate’s Newmarket yard in the autumn. Swooping from last to first to win her first race for her new connections in Goodwood last month, ROYAL DRESS hit the line strongly over 1,600m, suggesting that this extra distance will be well within her capabilities.
SELECTIONS: 5. RUNNING LION, 7. SPARKS FLY, 6. SEA OF THIEVES, 2. BREEGE & 4. ROYAL DRESS
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-2: Multiple – 5. RUNNING LION & 7. SPARKS FLY
S2-3: Multiple – 2. EMBESTO & 4. REGAL REALITY
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2:
Banker – 5. RUNNING LION
Selections – 7. SPARKS FLY, 6. SEA OF THIEVES, 2. BREEGE & 4. ROYAL DRESS
S2-3:
Banker – 2. EMBESTO
Selections – 4. REGAL REALITY, 6. ROYAL SCOTSMAN, 1. HIGHLAND AVENUE & 3. EPICTETUS
S2-3 Diomed Stakes
The G3 Diomed Stakes over 1,703m brings together an intriguing field of likely improvers and has the potential to throw up a surprise result.
Roger Varian’s EMBESTO, while a little disappointing when reappearing in the G3 Earl of Sefton Stakes over 1,800m at Newmarket in April, had a very productive campaign in 2023, winning three of his five starts. Probably needing his prep-run, he can be expected to improve and be in the mix here. He will, however, likely prefer better ground, so connections will be hoping that the forecast rain doesn’t arrive.
The winner of this race last year, REGAL REALITY could be in with another good chance this time. Despite being well-beaten last time out on good-to-firm in the G2 Huxley Stakes over 2,064m at Chester last month, he should be better suited by the shorter trip and undulations of Epsom. If the weather remains dry, his chances will only improve.
ROYAL SCOTSMAN could bounce back from a below-par display in the G1 Lockinge Stakes after ducking badly at the start two weeks ago. Now tuned up with a run, he could get back to his true form at Epsom. He won’t mind a bit of rain, but will equally be happy on quicker ground, so on his best form he has strong claims.
HIGHLAND AVENUE spent the winter in Meydan, running two good races in G1 and G2 contests, so is comfortably up to G3 standard. He was a close second in this race 12 months ago, just under a length behind REGAL REALITY, but with youth on his side, he could turn that form around and get the better of his higher-rated but older rival. His claims will be even better in softer conditions.
EPICTETUS won at this track last year in a Listed race over 2,000m on soft ground. He’s since been gelded and while he didn’t run great on his comeback in May at Ascot in the Listed Paradise Stakes over 1,600m, he probably needed the run and should be more than capable of running well here. Ground is not a factor for him, so he shouldn’t be too far away.
SELECTIONS: 2. EMBESTO, 4. REGAL REALITY, 6. ROYAL SCOTSMAN, 1. HIGHLAND AVENUE & 3. EPICTETUS
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-3: Multiple – 2. EMBESTO & 4. REGAL REALITY
S2-4: Multiple – 7. DUE FOR LUCK & 16. GRANDLAD
S2-4 3yo 0-90 Handicap
DUE FOR LUCK only just failed on his last start at Chester, but he holds leading claims of gaining compensation in this race. The John & Sean Quinn-trained son of DUE DILIGENCE was a fast finishing third after being forced to switch left at a crucial stage in a 1,014m handicap at Chester last time out. Although given a slight raise in the ratings for that effort, DUE FOR LUCK looks like a sprinter going the right direction. Having proved effective with soft in the going description, and granted a clear run, he looks set for a bold bid.
GRANDLAD is thriving at present and arrives chasing a hat-trick of wins following victories at Wolverhampton in a 1,019m novice contest and in a 1,000m handicap at Goodwood. Despite only racing on turf once, he should be suited to the downhill nature of the 1,000m track at Epsom following his most recent victory on a similar course. GRANDLAD will once again have the assistance of jockey Adam Farragher, who is two from four on him.
Kieran Cotter’s STURLASSON got off the mark at the seventh attempt last time out in a 1,000m maiden at Navan. The son of INVINCIBLE ARMY was tried highly on his final start last season when finishing eighth in the G3 Round Tower Stakes at the Curragh. Connections have interestingly booked three-time champion jockey Oisin Murphy for the ride, who has secured both G3 and G2 successes for the yard before aboard stable flagbearer MATILDA PICOTTE.
MASHADI is yet to win in nine career starts, but he has finished second on seven occasions including on his comeback in a 1,200m handicap at Ascot. This will be the first time he has run over 1,000m this year, however with the blinkers retained, the drop back in trip could easily suit this strong travelling type.
ROGUE ENFORCER could be forgiven his last run in a 1,009m handicap at Sandown where he was drawn wide in gate 10. The son of PROFITABLE won a 1,000m maiden at Beverley on soft ground and a 1,000m novice event at Catterick on heavy ground last season, so conditions should suit. His chances are further helped with claiming jockey Sean D Bowen taking weight off his back.
SELECTIONS: 7. DUE FOR LUCK, 16. GRANDLAD, 4. STURLASSON, 8. MASHADI & 10. ROGUE ENFORCER
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-4: Multiple – 7.DUE FOR LUCK & 16. GRANDLAD
S2-5: Multiple – 3. SILKY WILKIE & 9. LOOKING FOR LYNDA
S2-5 'Dash' Handicap
It’s sure to be fast and furious in the 1000m ‘Dash’ Handicap. Epsom is the quickest sprint course in Britain and that will suit SILKY WILKIE. He loves coming off a fast pace and he was a little unlucky to go down to NAVELLO by a short-head in this race 12 months ago. The gaps closed on him at a crucial stage and he was flying home in the closing stages. There’s every chance he would have won with a clear run. He’s much lower in the weights this time and he’s been running well over 1,000m this season since returning to turf from the all-weather.
LOOKING FOR LYNDA also comes into the race in good form. He showed bright pace over 1,000m at York two weeks ago and was only grabbed in the closing stages when runner-up behind CLARENDON HOUSE. His prominent style of racing is often a help over this sharp course and he certainly has the speed to take advantage of that track bias.
DREAM COMPOSER loves downhill sprint courses. He’s got a decent record over 1,000m at Goodwood, so he could take a liking to this similar track on his first visit to Epsom. His form this season has been promising and it was a particularly solid effort to go down by just a neck to the progressive FAIR WIND over 1,000m at Goodwood last week.
NIGHT ON EARTH put his blistering pace to good use to win over this sharp 1,000m course last month. He did well to finish a close fifth from a poor draw over 1,014m at Chester’s May Meeting and he again showed his usual speed when fourth at Goodwood over 1,000m last weekend. The return to this track is in his favour and front runners have a decent record in this race.
DEMOCRACY DILEMMA did well to finish fifth in the 3yo 0-90 Handicap over 1,000m on this day last year. He had the worst of the draw in that race – run over the same course and distance – and the ground was quicker than he likes. He was only caught close to the line over 1,019m at Windsor last week and the prospect of softer ground increases his claims.
SELECTIONS: 3. SILKY WILKIE, 9. LOOKING FOR LYNDA, 7. DREAM COMPOSER, 12. NIGHT ON EARTH & 2. DEMOCRACY DILEMMA
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 3. SILKY WILKIE & 9. LOOKING FOR LYNDA
S2-6: Multiple – 2. ANCIENT WISDOM & 11. LOS ANGELES
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-5:
Banker – 3. SILKY WILKIE
Selections – 9. LOOKING FOR LYNDA, 7. DREAM COMPOSER, 12. NIGHT ON EARTH & 2. DEMOCRACY DILEMMA
S2-6:
Banker – 2. ANCIENT WISDOM
Selections – 11. LOS ANGELES, 7. DEIRA MILE, 4. CITY OF TROY & 3. BELLUM JUSTUM
S2-6 Derby Stakes
The combination of soft ground and a step up in trip brings ANCIENT WISDOM firmly into the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,405m picture. His second in the G2 Dante Stakes over 2,051m on his seasonal reappearance should act as a nice stepping stone, while he was seen to good effect on soft ground as a 2YO, winning the G1 Futurity Trophy Stakes over 1,600m and G3 Autumn Stakes over 1,600m in testing conditions. The son of DUBAWI is out of a 2,400m-winning dam, so his stamina looks assured too.
G1 2,000m Criterium de Saint-Cloud winner LOS ANGELES is another who will relish a very soft ground Derby. He wasn’t overly impressive despite winning the G3 Derby Trial Stakes over 2,000m at Leopardstown, but ran through the line strongly and looked like a horse who will appreciate the extra 400m at Epsom.
Stablemate and the much-hyped CITY OF TROY was crowned the Champion Juvenile of 2023 following a scintillating hat-trick of wins as a 2YO, but his flop in the G1 2,000 Guineas over 1,600m, finishing ninth of 11, tempers enthusiasm. He remains the highest-rated horse in the race and still disputes favouritism, so it’s hard to leave him out of the placings, but he is a risky proposition for win purposes. The same could have been said about the stable’s AUGUSTE RODIN, who ran poorly in the 2000 Guineas before winning the Derby, so it can be done, but it certainly isn’t the ideal preparation.
DEIRA MILE was fourth in the aforementioned G1 Futurity Trophy Stakes, where he looked blatantly outpaced before staying on again, and he’s now of interest tackling longer distances. He won his seasonal reappearance over 2,000m at Windsor and while this is a huge step back up to G1 level, he should keep progressing the further he goes and is an interesting outsider.
BELLUM JUSTUM boasts the all-important course form having won the Listed Blue Riband Trial over 2,015m at Epsom. The unique undulations and sharp left-hand downhill turn at Epsom have seen many good horses fail, so it’s reassuring to know BELLUM JUSTUM has that box ticked. He has five races under his belt, including winning his last two starts over 1,600m and 2,015m respectively, and has every chance of picking up some prize money.
SELECTIONS: 2. ANCIENT WISDOM, 11. LOS ANGELES, 7. DEIRA MILE, 4. CITY OF TROY & 3. BELLUM JUSTUM
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-6: Multiple – 2. ANCIENT WISDOM & 11. LOS ANGELES
S2-7: Multiple – 3. IF NOT NOW & 7. ZIGGY
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-6: Multiple – 2. ANCIENT WISDOM, 11. LOS ANGELES & 7. DEIRA MILE
S2-7: Multiple – 3. IF NOT NOW, 7. ZIGGY & 2. RELENTLESS VOYAGER
S2-8: Multiple – 12. MR WAGYU, 3. APOLLO ONE & 5. BADRI
S2-7 4yo+ 86-105 Handicap
The race run over the same course and distance as the Derby Stakes. The weather forecast is changeable at Epsom, so it will pay to side with horses who are able to handle a variety of going descriptions.
IF NOT NOW is a horse who’s shown plenty of ability in his lightly raced career. He won on debut, before bumping into future Royal Ascot winner GREGORY on his next start, and then followed that with an impressive seven-length win at Sandown on handicap debut over 1,990m. His trainer Ralph Beckett considered him talented enough to contest the 2023 G1 Deutsches Derby on his next start, where he was a respectable fifth. Things haven’t quite gone to plan for him since, but the course at Epsom should suit, so expect him to run well.
Epsom form is worth its weight in gold in a race like this, so ZIGGY should be on the shortlist given his strong run at the track in April. Trained by Harry Eustace, this gelding hasn’t been overly faced in his career, and while he hasn’t been a regular winner, he could have a big say in a race like this with his track experience.
RELENTLESS VOYAGER looks an unexposed type for the Andrew Balding team. He broke his maiden in fine style at Kempton last March and followed that with a number of strong runs in much deeper waters. Most notably, he ran better than the formbook suggests when sixth behind future G1 winner KING OF STEEL at Royal Ascot. These are much calmer waters and having had a nice pipe opener at Newmarket last time out, he is of interest with Oisin Murphy booked to ride.
When it comes to Epsom form, FLASH BARDOT is another runner who catches the eye. She has one run at the track, which resulted in victory over this trip, and looks like she handles the unique configuration well. Since then, she’s gone up in the weights considerably, but also having shown a liking for ground with soft in the description, she should be able to operate whichever way the ground goes.
KOTARI arrives here looking to land a remarkable four-timer. This horse had spent much of his career running over jumps, but his trainers Gary and Josh Moore have clearly found his niche back on the Flat. He has risen up the handicap sharply as a result of his hat-trick, but looks capable of more here, potentially hitting the frame.
SELECTIONS: 3. IF NOT NOW, 7. ZIGGY, 2. RELENTLESS VOYAGER, 8. FLASH BARDOT & 13. KOTARI
7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-7: Multiple – 3. IF NOT NOW & 7. ZIGGY
S2-8: Multiple – 12. MR WAGYU & 3. APOLLO ONE
S2-8 4yo+ 86-105 Handicap
The downhill sprint course at Epsom is one of the fastest in the world and requires a horse that has early speed as well as the ability to handle the track. Several horses are returning for another go at this 1,200m handicap, having run well in the same contest last year.
MR WAGYU is one of them, having finished third last year, and winning the race in 2022. A horse with a huge amount of early speed, he clearly relishes this course, and lines up here on a lower handicap mark than in either of the last two years. John & Sean Quinn’s 9YO has already run two good races this season, when second at Ripon 1,000m and sixth at York over 1,200m, and he is versatile on a range of ground. He should be primed to go close once again. MR WAGYU finished behind BADRI and APOLLO ONE in this contest last year but is now much better off at the weights with both of those rivals.
Given his consistency it’s hard to count APOLLO ONE out. Since finishing second in this race, he has placed four times in five races, including on his reappearance in a competitive Newmarket handicap over 1,200m in early May. While he’s been nudged back up in the weights and may find something better handicapped, he handles the course and goes on a range of ground, so cannot be left out of the equation.
BADRI was last year’s winner and has been brought back here in a bid for a repeat. Julie Camacho’s 7YO can be a bit of an inconsistent performer but is good on his day and comes here only marginally above the handicap mark he was successful off last year. First-time cheekpieces could also be a help and Hollie Doyle is a good jockey booking, but drying ground would be preferable.
Another horse to run in this last year was STRIKE RED, who looked set to play a bigger part in the finish 400m out but eventually faded to finish seventh. He did go on to win a competitive Curragh handicap over 1,257m later last year, a success that came on soft ground, so he could be suited by any rain that falls. He finished well down the field at Newcastle over 1,200m on his reappearance but should be fitter after that.
EXECUTIVE DECISION sneaks in here near the foot of the weights and is back down to her last winning handicap mark. She has yet to experience Epsom but could be a filly that improves this season.
SELECTIONS: 12. MR WAGYU, 3. APOLLO ONE, 5. BADRI, 6. STRIKE RED & 13. EXECUTIVE DECISION
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