 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prince of Wales's Stakes Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Queen Mary Stakes
Arguably the most visually impressive performance coming into the G2 1,000m Queen Mary Stakes has been MAKE HASTE’s debut over 1,000m at Naas. The daughter of multiple Royal Ascot-winning sprinter BLUE POINT was very alert in the paddock before the race and was a little keen in the early stages but still showed a decisive turn of foot to sprint clear of her rivals. She will have learnt a lot from that first run and could take all the beating.
MISS RASCAL took a good step forward from her debut over 1,000m at Newmarket to go on and score over the same course and distance on her second start. She was a big eye-catcher at Newmarket, running on from last of the 13-runner field to be a fast-finishing sixth, and under a front-running ride from Tom Marquand next time up, she couldn’t be caught. With two runs under her belt, including an emphatic win over this track and trip, she has to be on the shortlist.
TRULY ENCHANTING took a little bit of time to find her stride on debut over 1,000m at Tipperary, but when she did hit top gear, they couldn’t go with her. Despite being green in the early stages, she showed plenty of ability to score by 3.8 lengths and will be expected to improve plenty for that racecourse debut.
LEOVANNI has to be on the shortlist after her impressive debut win over 1,007m at Nottingham. Despite getting a little unbalanced mid-way through the race, she showed a good attitude to pull clear of her rivals in the closing stages. She looked both talented and professional on her first start and should improve plenty for the run.
Four of the last nine winners of the straight 1,000m sprint have gone to US-trained fillies and ULTIMA GRACE looks their leading hope this year. Trained by Wesley Ward, who has won 4 times of this race since 2009, she was typically sharp out of the gates on debut over 900m at Keeneland. While that win came on the dirt, Ward has stated he believes her preferred surface will be turf.
SELECTIONS: 13. MAKE HASTE, 17. MISS RASCAL, 23. TRULY ENCHANTING, 12. LEOVANNI & 24. ULTIMA GRACE
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-1: Multiple – 13. MAKE HASTE & 17. MISS RASCAL
S2-2: Multiple – 2. GROSVENOR SQUARE & 3. HIGHBURY
S2-2 Queen's Vase
Irish Champion Trainer Aidan O’Brien looks to have his eighth victories in this G2 2,844m Queen’s Vase. He has four of the 12 runners and GROSVENOR SQUARE looks the pick of them. His impressive Leopardstown G3 win over 1,800m on his final start as a 2YO last season marked him down as a classy staying prospect. The tight turns of Chester were against him when third in a G3 over 2,457m on his return to action, but the step up in distance and stiffer track should suit him much better here. His half-brother, SANTIAGO, landed this contest in 2020 for O’Brien before winning the G1 Irish Derby.
Stablemate HIGHBURY stepped up on his debut third behind BIRDMAN at Cork over 2,423m when an emphatic winner of a 2,400m Leopardstown maiden last month. The runner-up HIMALAYAN HEIGHTS – beaten 7.5 lengths – has since won a Tipperary maiden to give the form a really solid look. HIGHBURY’s dam, HIGH CELEBRITY, was a G3 sprint winner but he should have no problem staying this longer distance with top stallion GALILEO putting stamina into his pedigree.
MEYDAAN looked in need of marathon distances when third behind subsequent Derby runner-up AMBIENTE FRIENDLY and ILLINOIS in the Listed Lingfield Derby Trial over 2,321m. It was good to see the way he battled on well to land a Goodwood Listed race over 2,240m last month and he has the potential to develop into a smart stayer. The step up in distance to 2,844m is certainly in his favour.
BIRDMAN is unbeaten in two starts. He had HIGHBURY back in third when making a successful debut in a 2,423m Cork maiden on soft ground in April. Irish trainer Mrs John Harrington’s improving 3YO then win a Listed race over 2,600m in Navan. This is a tougher race but he is likely to have taken another step forward from his last run.
ILLINOIS – another O’Brien’s runner - is a half-brother to 2011 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner DANEDREAM and he has already shown plenty of the family class. He was a close third in the G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud over 2,000m last season and it was no disgrace to chase home subsequent Derby Stakes runner-up AMBIENTE FRIENDLY in the aforementioned Listed Lingfield Derby Trial over 2,321m last month.
SELECTIONS: 2. GROSVENOR SQUARE, 3. HIGHBURY, 7. MEYDAAN, 1. BIRDMAN & 4. ILLINOIS
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-2: Multiple – 2. GROSVENOR SQUARE & 3. HIGHBURY
S2-3: Multiple – 11. ROGUE MILLENNIUM & 1. OCEAN JEWEL
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2:
Banker – 2. GROSVENOR SQUARE
Selections – 3. HIGHBURY, 7. MEYDAAN, 1. BIRDMAN & 4. ILLINOIS
S2-3:
Banker – 11. ROGUE MILLENNIUM
Selections – 1. OCEAN JEWEL, 6. LAUREL, 12. ROYAL DRESS & 2. BREEGE
S2-3 Duke of Cambridge Stakes
It is the turn of the best filly and mare milers in the G2 Duke of Cambridge Stakes over 1,600m and last year’s winner ROGUE MILLENNIUM is the obvious place to start. The 2023 renewal was wide open and her then trainer, Tom Clover, had his filly primed to land the prize on her first run over this trip. Afterwards, she maintained a strong level of form, best shown by her second to star filly TAHIYRA in the G1 Matron Stakes over 1,600m at Leopardstown. Now trained by Joseph O’Brien, she was unlucky not to win on her seasonal reappearance and is the one to beat here on her favoured quicker ground.
OCEAN JEWEL is a filly who’s been a work in progress for Willie McCreery. She showed smart form as a 3YO, highlighted by a G3 victory over 1,433m, before not being disgraced behind TAHIYRA on her final start last term over 1,600m. Reappearing in the G2 Lanwades Stud Stakes over 1,600m, she defeated some smart fillies who reoppose here, and should be competitive again in this company.
There’s no doubt that LAUREL has a lot of ability despite her lack of experience. She’s a three-times winner in her five-race career, the best of which came in Listed company over 1,600m in April 2023. John and Thady Gosden’s mare has twice been tried in G1 company over this distance, and twice disappointed in defeat, most recently when 10th in last year’s Lockinge Stakes. This race represents a drop in class and even though it will be her first start for over a year, she has a very good record fresh.
For ROYAL DRESS, however, this event will be a step up in grade. Raced mainly as a sprinter in her career, James Tate sent his filly to the Listed Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes in May, and she duly obliged with a win. She was third on her most recent run in an Epsom G3 18 days ago and looks ready to compete here.
John & Sean Quinn’s filly, BREEGE, has not been a frequent winner, only victorious twice in her career, but has been very consistent. She has raced three times at Ascot and has been placed on all three occasions. The faster ground shouldn’t inconvenience her and she has the ability to run well.
SELECTIONS: 11. ROGUE MILLENNIUM, 1. OCEAN JEWEL, 6. LAUREL, 12. ROYAL DRESS & 2. BREEGE
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-3: Multiple – 11. ROGUE MILLENNIUM & 1. OCEAN JEWEL
S2-4: Multiple – 2. AUGUSTE RODIN & 10. INSPIRAL
S2-4 Prince of Wales's Stakes
The feature race on Wednesday, the G1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes 2,005m, sees the return of AUGUSTE RODIN to English soil after a disappointing Ascot run last July in the G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2,392m. Since then, Aidan O’Brien’s stable star has travelled across the pond to win the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf over 2,400m at Santa Anita in November but has failed to find the winners’ circle since then. This colt can be a bit of a yo-yo performer, but the slight step back down in trip here might see some improvement for his last run when second in the G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup over 2,100m last month.
John and Thady Gosden send INSPIRAL here which is an interesting decision after a disappointing run last time out in the G1 Lockinge Stakes over 1,600m at Newbury. Stepping back up in trip to 2,005m could help the daughter of FRANKEL get back to winning ways with her last win over that distance coming in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf over 2,000m at Santa Anita last November. She stayed on strongly to the line but will need to be at her best to challenge AUGUSTE RODIN.
Heavily raced 4YO HORIZON DORE enters the ranks for French trainer Patrice Cottier who most notably came third in the G1 Champion Stakes over 2,000m at Ascot last October. He was only narrowly denied in the G1 Prix d’Ispahan over 1,850m last time out, his best effort so far this campaign, but he still has plenty to find against his main rivals.
Owen Burrows fields ALFLAILA who’ll be returning to the track after a significant layoff of 9 months. His last start saw him come fifth in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes in September last year at Leopardstown behind AUGUSTE RODIN where he just got going too late from the back and failed to catch the front runners. Jim Crowley on board coupled with a decent rest could see him back to his best here.
BLUE ROSE CEN lines up for Chantilly-based handler Maurizio Guarnieri, who received this filly earlier this year and will be hoping for a better result than she showed on debut for the yard in the G1 Prix d’Ispahan at Longchamp, when finishing fifth. She is relatively untested on faster ground, so it’ll be interesting to see how she fares here if the dry weather holds.
SELECTIONS: 2. AUGUSTE RODIN, 10. INSPIRAL, 4. HORIZON DORE, 1. ALFLAILA & 9. BLUE ROSE CEN
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-4: Multiple – 2. AUGUSTE RODIN & 10. INSPIRAL
S2-5: Multiple – 9. REAL GAIN & 20. WILD TIGER
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-4:
Banker – 2. AUGUSTE RODIN
Selections – 10. INSPIRAL, 4. HORIZON DORE, 1. ALFLAILA & 9. BLUE ROSE CEN
S2-5:
Banker – 9. REAL GAIN
Selections – 20. WILD TIGER, 6. BESHTANI, 12. BLESS HIM & 11. COEUR D’OR
S2-5 Royal Hunt Cup
The Royal Hunt Cup is one of the biggest handicaps of the Royal Meeting, with a field of 30 runners racing over 1,600m on Ascot’s straight course.
Richard Hughes’ REAL GAIN won a Newmarket handicap over 1,800m in great style in the last season. His win at Newmarket came on fast ground, so he should relish the conditions at Ascot, and he can be forgiven a moderate reappearance run at Newbury over 1,600m last time as that came on ground that was likely softer than ideal. He looks well-handicapped and should go well for a yard that have started the season strongly.
Saeed bin Suroor won this race in 2021 and looks to have prepped WILD TIGER for this contest. The son of FRANKEL has been kept busy this year, running four times already. He’s managed two places and one win from those starts, with both successes coming over 1,400m at Yarmouth and Goodwood last month. On those occasions he’s finished strongly and been well on top at the line, so this step back up to 1,600m should suit and he looks capable going close in a bid for a hat-trick of wins.
Owners Wathnan Racing have a strong hand in this race, with REAL GAIN being joined by BESHTANI. BESHTANI is the pick of retained rider James Doyle, who was denied by the narrowest of margins aboard him last time at Epsom over 1,703m. The winner that day has gone on to score again since, giving the form a strong look. He’s also entitled to come on for that reappearance run and could well give trainer H A Al Jehani a first Royal Ascot winner.
10YO BLESS HIM has finished fifth and seventh in the last two runnings of this race and returns here on a lower handicap mark now. His close third in the Victoria Cup over 1,400m at Ascot earlier this season shows he retains his ability and with a good pace to aim at he has place claims.
Dermot Weld’s COEUR D’OR proved he was highly capable in big field handicaps like this when winning competitive races at Galway over 1,712m and Curragh over 1,600m last season. He remains only slightly above his last winning mark and should improve for a promising reappearance run over an inadequate 1,200m last time.
SELECTIONS: 9. REAL GAIN, 20. WILD TIGER, 6. BESHTANI, 12. BLESS HIM & 11. COEUR D’OR
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 9. REAL GAIN & 20. WILD TIGER
S2-6: Multiple – 11. SUMMER OF LOVE & 4. MYSTIC PEARL
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 9. REAL GAIN, 20. WILD TIGER & 6. BESHTANI
S2-6: Multiple – 11. SUMMER OF LOVE, 4. MYSTIC PEARL & 16. DOHA
S2-7: Multiple – 22. SHADOW ARMY, 16. PONT NEUF & 24. TREASURE ISLE
S2-6 Kensington Palace Stakes
This 1,600m handicap for fillies and mares is the newest race of the meeting, being run only for the fourth time and switched to the straight course this year. Punters should tread carefully as so far it has been a profitable one for the bookmakers, with all three of the previous winners having started at double-figure odds.
Godolphin’s lightly-raced SUMMER OF LOVE is interesting, and Saeed bin Suroor has a good record at this meeting. She was impressive when defying almost eight months break to win for a second time at Kempton over 1,400m two weeks ago. This longer trip won’t be a problem and her opening handicap mark looks reasonable enough for SUMMER OF LOVE’s turf debut.
William Haggas is enjoying a great season and he has a strong contender in MYSTIC PEARL. She dug deep when coming from off the pace to win in Listed company over 1,600m at Sandown last July when the going was similarly fast. Things did not work out for MYSTIC PEARL in two runs at Dubai earlier in the year, but she showed more of her old fire when finishing a close third at Ascot over 1,600m, where the slow pace did not play to her strengths.
There won’t be a better-bred filly in this race than DOHA, whose sire SEA THE STARS and dam TREVE won three Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe between them. However, DOHA looked to relish the soft ground when she made it third time lucky in her maiden at Windsor over 1,628m. She was beaten on her reappearance at Haydock over 2,038m, but if she copes with these faster conditions, she should be in the mix.
TWIRLING, one of the biggest in the field, has so much physical scope, she had to be content with minor honours on her turf debut at Nottingham last month, but made no mistake and won at Doncaster over 1,600m next time. The tongue-tie has helped.
The fast ground should suit Joseph O’Brien’s ADELAISE, who was only beaten 1.25 lengths into fourth place in this race last year. She is a classy mare and showed battling qualities to get up close home in a Listed race at Kempton over 1,600m in April.
SELECTIONS: 11. SUMMER OF LOVE, 4. MYSTIC PEARL, 16. DOHA, 8. TWIRLING & 2. ADELAISE
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-6: Multiple – 11. SUMMER OF LOVE & 4. MYSTIC PEARL
S2-7: Multiple – 22. SHADOW ARMY & 16. PONT NEUF
S2-7 Windsor Castle Stakes
SHADOW ARMY looks to have solid credentials of maintaining his unbeaten record in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot. The Richard Fahey-trained son of SHOWCASING made a winning debut in a 1,000m novice contest at York, despite being slowly away, and being caught short of room late on. The form of that race has since been boosted with the runner-up FRANCISCO'S PIECE winning a 1,000m Listed event at Chantilly, while quick ground is a positive.
PONT NEUF will bid to give Eve Johnson Houghton a second win in the race having landed the 2021 renewal with CHIPOTLE. After making a winning start in a 1,000m novice on the all-weather at Kempton, the son of COTAI GLORY followed up on his turf debut in another 1,000m novice at Salisbury. While PONT NEUF is yet to tackle quick ground, his last race has subsequently worked out well with two of the five horses behind him winning since.
Aidan O’Brien has won the race three times since 2014 and he has two lively contenders this year. TREASURE ISLE is the more experienced of his pair having finished second on his debut in a soft heavy ground 2YO 1,000m race at the Curragh, before winning a similar 1,000m contest at Naas. The son of NO NAY NEVER appeared to appreciate the switch to better ground last time out and with conditions set to suit, he should go close again.
The Ballydoyle master will also be represented by CELTIC CHIEFTAIN, who arrives here on the back of winning the 1,000m maiden at Navan that SOUTHERN HILLS finished second in before winning this race in 2019. Although the stable second string on that occasion, the NO NAY NEVER colt stayed on strongly to suggest this stiff 1,000m will be to his liking.
David Marnane nominated this race for SIR YOSHI after he opened his account on his third start in a 1,000m maiden at Tipperary last month. Although winning on soft ground last time out, the son of MEHMAS is likely to be seen to even better effect now switched to quicker conditions. And as one of the most experienced runners in the field, SIR YOSHI is unlikely to let the occasion get to him.
SELECTIONS: 22. SHADOW ARMY, 16. PONT NEUF, 24. TREASURE ISLE, 7. CELTIC CHIEFTAIN & 23. SIR YOSHI
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