 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
|---|---|
| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Gold Cup Day (S3) (Bill Esdaile)
S3-1 Norfolk Stakes
The G2 Norfolk Stakes is Royal Ascot’s top 1,000m race for juveniles, so it’s full of the fastest early-season 2YOs.
WHISTLEJACKET has a superb pedigree for this type of contest. He’s a full brother of 2022 Champion Juvenile LITTLE BIG BEAR and he’s clearly inherited plenty of the family’s ability. He stepped up on his debut second in a 1,200m Curragh maiden when making all the running to easily land a Listed race over 1,000m at the same track last month. Both his runs so far have come on testing ground but his pedigree suggests a quicker surface could suit him even better. His trainer Aidan O’Brien has won this race on three occasions and he has an excellent chance of adding to that haul with WHISTLEJACKET.
ARIZONA BLAZE finished runner-up behind WHISTLEJACKET in that 1,000m Curragh Listed race. He’s since gone on to land a 1,200m G3 from the front at the same track but there’s little doubt he has the speed for this drop back in distance. The stiff track will play to his strengths and he’s already had three runs, so that experience has to be an advantage.
SHAREHOLDER was well backed ahead of his debut in a 1,000m conditions race at Beverley. He didn’t let his supporters down when just holding on by a shorthead from a previous winner. Karl Burke’s youngster was getting weight off his main rivals but it was still a nice start to his career. He’s sure to have improved for the experience and he’s clearly a smart prospect.
American trainer Wesley Ward has an excellent record with the juveniles he sends to Royal Ascot. Most of them blast out from the front but his SATURDAY FLIRT came from off the pace when successful over 1,100m at Keeneland in April on firm ground. She was snapped up by top owners Mrs Fitri Hay on the run-up to Royal Ascot and she will be attempting to give Ward his third victory in this race.
Archie Watson is another trainer who does well with his 2YOs at this meeting. His AESTERIUS thrashed some horses that had already run on his debut over 1,009m at Bath last month. The speed he showed that day will make him a potent weapon.
SELECTIONS: 13. WHISTLEJACKET, 2. ARIZONA BLAZE, 10. SHAREHOLDER, 14. SATURDAY FLIRT &1. AESTERIUS
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-1: Multiple – 13. WHISTLEJACKET & 2. ARIZONA BLAZE
S3-2: Multiple – 8. PONIROS & 3. CHANTILLY
S3-2 King George V Stakes
The King George V Stakes, a handicap for 3YOs over 2,392m, is a race that usually produces Group class winners.
A key form line in this year’s renewal looks like being the London Gold Cup over 2,000m, run at Newbury last month, where PONIROS finished a good second to a smart looking rival. That was his first handicap run and he proved that he was well up to defying his mark, sticking on well in the closing stages. Being by Derby winner GOLDEN HORN, he should appreciate this step up in trip and while he’s taken a small rise in the weights, that shouldn’t be enough to stop a bold bid.
Aidan O’Brien’s CHANTILLY led the London Gold Cup field for a long way before being headed inside the final 300m, when looking to lack a change of gear at the finish. He only finished an neck behind PONIROS, so it was still a good effort. He looked to be crying out for a step up in trip that day and should be capable of improvement now. Much of his form is on testing ground, so he does have a bit to prove on quick going, though.
Just over a length behind PONIROS and CHANTILLY at Newbury was PERSICA, who kept on well into fourth.
Richard Hannon’s runner has since come out and won well at Epsom over 2,015m, franking the form, but he will have to improve again following a substantial rise in ratings.
GOING THE DISTANCE has won three of his four career starts to date, including on handicap debut at Kempton over 2,199m last time. He settled that race with a sharp turn of foot 400m out, and only had to be pushed out to the line. It’s hard to get a handle on the level of that form, but Ralph Beckett’s son of LOPE DE VEGA looks sure to improve and is capable of going well.
KAMBOO is an interesting handicap debutant, having run in the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,405m on his last start. Before that he was a good winner of a 1,600m novice at Kempton, beating a subsequent winner by three lengths. The fact he was pitched into the G1 Derby Stakes on his next start is an indication of the esteem trainer Richard Hughes holds him in, and while he was well beaten at Epsom, at this lower level he could be capable of surprising.
SELECTIONS: 8. PONIROS, 3. CHANTILLY, 1. PERSICA, 4. GOING THE DISTANCE & 10. KAMBOO
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-2: Multiple – 8. PONIROS & 3. CHANTILLY
S3-3: Multiple – 2. DIAMOND RAIN & 6. KALPANA
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S3-2:
Banker – 8. PONIROS
Selections – 3. CHANTILLY, 1. PERSICA, 4. GOING THE DISTANCE & 10. KAMBOO
S3-3:
Banker – 2. DIAMOND RAIN
Selections – 6. KALPANA, 13. YOU GOT TO ME, 3. FOREST FAIRY & 8. PORT FAIRY
S3-3 Ribblesdale Stakes
A few of racing’s finest 3YO fillies line up in the G2 Ribblesdale Stakes over 2,392m.
With two wins from two runs to her name, DIAMOND RAIN is a clear favourite and certainly the one to beat for Charlie Appleby in the Godolphin silks. She made it look easy last time out over 2,000m at Newbury and appeared to still have plenty left in the tank. Another step forward from that performance would make her hard to beat.
Andrew Balding’s charge, KALPANA, looks her strongest challenger. She finished second last time out in a Listed race at Newmarket over 2,000m when odds-on favourite but lost little in defeat. It was a full 12 lengths back to the third, suggesting her and the winner were in a league of their own and she still deserves plenty of respect.
YOU GOT TO ME is one of the two Ralph Beckett-trained fillies entered here. She was impressive in winning the Listed Lingfield Oaks Trial Stakes over 2,321m with relative ease and went on to run a good race last time out in the G1 Oaks at Epsom over 2,405m, finishing fourth. She’s unproven on anything quicker than good ground, so that’s a question mark, but she certainly has a strong level of form.
Beckett’s other runner, FOREST FAIRY, came up short of her stablemate YOU GOT TO ME in the G1 Oaks at Epsom over 2,405m on softish ground, finishing seventh. Three weeks prior to that, she won a Listed race at Chester over 2,268m on good ground, so it will be interesting to see if she can bounce back on her return to a quicker surface. She’s a proven stayer who will be putting in her best work in the closing stages.
Aidan O’Brien’s PORT FAIRY narrowly lost out to FOREST FAIRY last time out at Chester in the aforementioned Listed Cheshire Oaks over 2,268m, but could reverse the form this time around. Although this is a deep field, O’Brien is a serial winner of this race having won four of the last 10 renewals, so it’d be foolish to write off his filly. She’s not raced since that run back in early May and is entitled to take a big step forward now.
SELECTIONS: 2. DIAMOND RAIN, 6. KALPANA, 13. YOU GOT TO ME, 3. FOREST FAIRY & 8. PORT FAIRY
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-3: Multiple – 2. DIAMOND RAIN & 6. KALPANA
S3-4: Multiple – 3. KYPRIOS & 10. CAIUS CHORISTER
S3-4 Gold Cup
The 2022 winner KYPRIOS missed last year’s race and most of last season because of injury, but he should play a big part again as he attempts to add to trainer Aidan O’Brien’s record nine wins in this G1 3,991m marathon. KYPRIOS was not at his best on the two times he eventually raced in 2023, including a narrow defeat by TRAWLERMAN in Ascot’s G2 British Champions Long Distance Cup over 3,115m in October. There have been no issues this season and Ryan Moore’s mount has won the same two 2800m races at Navan and Leopardstown that he did before his 2022 victory. He was made to work relatively hard for those successes but the step up to 3,991m will play to his strengths and those runs will have ensured he has reached peak fitness for his main target.
COLTRANE has a great course record with three wins and two seconds from six starts. The Andrew Balding-trained 7YO was second to COURAGE MON AMI in last year’s Gold Cup and after a couple of below-par runs bounced back to form when fitted with cheekpieces for the first time when fending off CAIUS CHORISTER, SWEET WILLIAM and TRUESHAN in the G3 Sagaro Stakes over 3,190m at Ascot in early May.
SWEET WILLIAM has since narrowly emerged best of that trio when narrowly winning the G3 Henry II Stakes at Sandown over 3,245m when the blinkers he normally wears were replaced by a visor. But he is a difficult ride and the pedigree of improving mare CAIUS CHORISTER makes it likely she will step up to even greater heights on her first try at 3,991m.
The runners Ireland and Britain’s Champion Jumps trainer Willie Mullins sends to this meeting command respect and VAUBAN romped to a wide-margin success in the Copper Horse Handicap over 2,831m 12 months ago. VAUBAN looked to need his seasonal debut when second to GIAVELLOTTO in the G2 Yorkshire Cup over 2,771m at York, but that was a satisfactory comeback, as was the case with third-placed GREGORY, who noticeably stayed on in the final furlong.
GREGORY won the G2 Queen’s Vase over 2,831m at Royal Ascot last year before finishing fifth in the G1 St Leger Stakes over 2,905m in September. He has only run six times in his career for the John and Thady Gosden stable and although he has to prove his stamina, he could improve for the extra distance.
SELECTIONS: 3. KYPRIOS, 10. CAIUS CHORISTER, 9. GREGORY, 1. COLTRANE & 8. VAUBAN
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-4: Multiple – 3. KYPRIOS & 10. CAIUS CHORISTER
S3-5: Multiple – 25. NATIVE WARRIOR & 5. STARLORE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S3-4:
Banker – 3. KYPRIOS
Selections – 10. CAIUS CHORISTER, 9. GREGORY, 1. COLTRANE & 8. VAUBAN
S3-5:
Banker – 25. NATIVE WARRIOR
Selections – 5. STARLORE, 19. QIRAT, 24. SKUKUZA & 12. SON OF MAN
S3-5 Britannia Stakes
NATIVE WARRIOR looks a standout contender to give trainer Karl Burke a first success in the Britannia Stakes over 1,600m at Royal Ascot. Placed in both starts at Newmarket over 1,400m as a 2YO, the son of WOOTTON BASSETT finished fourth behind subsequent G1 2000 Guineas winner NOTABLE SPEECH when upped to 1,600m in a conditions event at Kempton on his return to action. The Wathnan Racing-owned colt only won by a neck in a 1,668m maiden at Nottingham last time out, but he won more decisively than his winning margin suggested and all the signs point to a big run on a track that should play to his strengths.
STARLORE looked top class when making a winning debut in a 1,400m novice event at Sandown last year, but little has gone right for the Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt since. The son of KINGMAN was an eye-catching loser in a 1,400m handicap at Goodwood last time when denied a clear run at a crucial stage. Given how he ran on that day it would suggest that 1,600m will suit him even better, and granted a clear run he could go well.
Finishing ahead of STARLORE last time was fellow Juddmonte-owned QIRAT, who will bid to give trainer Ralph Beckett a second win in the race after saddling BIOMETRIC to victory for the same connections in 2019. STARLORE received a small rise in the ratings for that win, and is another tackling 1,600m for the first time, but the trip should be within reach given how he finished last time.
Ed Dunlop won this race back in 2009 with FAREER and he looks to have another interesting candidate in SKUKUZA. The BLUE POINT finished well from the back of the field to open his account in a 1,600m handicap at Newmarket on his latest start at a track where it pays to be handy. And the chances of SKUKUZA are further bolstered by the eyecatching booking of Champion Jockey William Buick.
SON OF MAN failed to figure on his return in a 1,634m handicap at Haydock, but he put in a much better performance with a running on second in a 1,400m handicap at Goodwood last time out. The Jane Chapple-Hyam-trained gelding brings some respectable 2YO form to the table and given the way he ran last time, a step back up to 1,600m looks a big positive.
SELECTIONS: 25. NATIVE WARRIOR, 5. STARLORE, 19. QIRAT, 24. SKUKUZA & 12. SON OF MAN
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-5: Multiple – 25. NATIVE WARRIOR & 5. STARLORE
S3-6: Multiple – 7. KING’S GAMBIT & 5. FIRST LOOK
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S3-5: Multiple – 25. NATIVE WARRIOR, 5. STARLORE & 19. QIRAT
S3-6: Multiple – 7. KING’S GAMBIT, 5. FIRST LOOK & 3. BRACKEN’S LAUGH
S3-7: Multiple – 11. ENGLISH OAK, 3. AWAAL & 18. DIVINE LIBRA
S3-6 Hampton Court Stakes
The Hampton Court Stakes is a G3 over the 1,993m trip and features some fascinating 3YOs.
KING’S GAMBIT catches the eye and looks like an improving horse for Harry Charlton. He was a work in progress as a 2YO but showed that he’d developed into a promising 3YO when the runaway winner of the competitive London Gold Cup Handicap over 2,000m at Newbury on his seasonal reappearance. That race is often a springboard to bigger things for upwardly mobile types and he could be ready to take off again in this event.
If you’re looking for a horse with Classic form, then FIRST LOOK should be on your shortlist. A 2YO winner over 1,600m, he was deemed talented enough to contest Prix la Force on his 2024 bow, and then improved on his third place there to finish second in a Chantilly G3 over 1,800m. The G1 Prix du Jockey Club over 2,100m came next and he ran very well to finish second behind a highly rated rival. He’s only ever raced on softer ground, but Andre Fabre generally doesn’t send his horses across the water without a strong chance.
Richard Hughes has made no secret of how highly he rates BRACKEN’S LAUGH. He beat the reopposing KING’S GAMBIT on debut at Newbury over 1,600m and ran respectably when a close fifth in a 2,000m G1 on his next start. He reappeared with a taking victory back over 1,600m in April and wasn’t disgraced when second in a Chester Listed race over 2,064m 42 days ago. There is a big win in this horse, and it might just be in this.
JAYAREBE was third behind BRACKEN’S LAUGH at Chester in May and takes him on again here. A debut winner over 1,400m as a juvenile, he then ran admirably when not beaten far by future Irish 2000 Guineas winner ROSALLION in a 1,400m G1 at ParisLongchamp. He was a ready winner of a Newmarket Listed contest over 1,800m in April and ran with credit afterwards at Chester. He should operate on this fast surface and could hit the frame.
SONS AND LOVERS could be anything for Jane Chapple-Hyam. He got off the mark on debut at Newmarket last October over 1,400m and has run well on both starts this term, most notably when third to HAATEM in the G3 Craven Stakes over 1,600m. Chapple-Hyam is an underrated trainer and her colt could be about to show a career best here.
SELECTIONS: 7. KING’S GAMBIT, 5. FIRST LOOK, 3. BRACKEN’S LAUGH, 6. JAYAREBE & 9. SONS AND LOVERS
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-6: Multiple – 7. KING’S GAMBIT & 5. FIRST LOOK
S3-7: Multiple – 11. ENGLISH OAK & 3. AWAAL
S3-7 Buckingham Palace Stakes
This cavalry charge over the straight 1,400m has proved an absolute nightmare for punters, with every favourite being beaten in the last 10 renewals.
However, though the well-fancied ENGLISH OAK has solid form over 1,200m and 1,600m, this 1,400m arguably brings out the best in him. Runner-up at Newmarket’s handicap over 1,400m, ENGLISH OAK produced a career-best performance at Haydock over 1,434m last time out, and I liked the way he stretched clear in the final furlong. Not surprisingly, ENGLISH OAK has gone up in the weights, but this will be only the eighth race of his career and he might still be one step ahead of the handicapper.
AWAAL has to overcome an almost eight-month absence, but he is a horse who runs well fresh. He had some classy form last year, being placed in the Lincoln Handicap, Royal Hunt Cup and Bunbury Cup, three of the most competitive handicaps of the season. We can put a line through his last run over the straight 1,600m here last October, as he was drawn on the far side of the course, and the quartet who raced there were always struggling.
NORTHERN EXPRESS is a bit of a York specialist, but he also has some solid form on this course. He finished an honourable third in this race last year, disputing the lead in the last 100m, only to be run out of it close home. Furthermore, NORTHERN EXPRESS is ultra-consistent, not only winning six races but finishing in the frame another 11 times.
Charles Hills feels that this 1,400m suits DIVINE LIBRA, who has finished in the frame in eight of his 12 races.
He has been in great form this season, winning over the trip at Chester before coming off third best in a blanket finish at Newmarket over 1,400m. Ryan Moore is a significant booking.
One at bigger odds is TACARIB BAY, who has gradually come down the handicap this season. Although he has not managed a place in five races, he finished only just behind NORTHERN EXPRESS in a competitive handicap over 1,400m here last summer. Indeed, some of TACARIB BAY’s best efforts have been on this course, notably his third against older horses when racing off a higher mark in the Balmoral Handicap over 1,600m two years ago.
SELECTIONS: 11. ENGLISH OAK, 3. AWAAL, 18. DIVINE LIBRA, 2. NORTHERN EXPRESS & 10. TACARIB BAY
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
