 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
|---|---|
| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Commonwealth Cup Day (S4) (Bill Esdaile)
S4-1 Albany Stakes
FAIRY GODMOTHER holds strong chances of securing trainer Aidan O’Brien a record equalling third success in the G3 Albany Stakes over 1,200m at Royal Ascot. Since its inception back in 2002, the Ballydoyle master has won the race with BRAVE ANNA and MEDITATE in 2016 and 2022, both of whom subsequently won at G1 level. Having finished second on her debut in a 1,186m maiden at Naas, the daughter of NIGHT OF THUNDER then won the same G3 at Naas like MEDITATE did en route to the Royal Meeting. That performance looks a standout piece of form and if she produces the smart turn of foot she displayed on that occasion, then she could take plenty of stopping.
MOUNTAIN BREEZE is yet to put a foot wrong in her two career starts to date and she is likely to be on the premises once again. The Charlie Appleby-trained LOPE DE VEGA filly has looked professional on both her starts after making a winning debut in a 1,000m novice at Newmarket, before following up in another 1,200m novice at the same track when giving weight away to all her rivals. This will be her toughest test so far, but the stiff 1,200m should play to her strengths given the manner in which she won last time out going away at the finish line.
Archie Watson is often a trainer to be followed with his 2YO runners and TWAFEEG looks like another smart juvenile for him judging by her front running debut success in a 1,301m maiden at Doncaster. The daughter of FAR ABOVE travelled well on that occasion before quickening impressively from the front to run out a decisive winner. Although not guaranteed to get the lead here, TWAFEEG looks worthy of her place in this line up based on that victory.
LIBERALISED is another that commands respect after appearing to win with plenty of authority on her debut in a 1,205m maiden at Hamilton. Sat just behind the early pace, the KODIAC filly picked up well once called on for her maximum effort by Daniel Tudhope and she will be much sharper for that outing in her bid to give trainer Karl Burke a second win in the race.
SIMMERING could only finish third on her debut in a 1,200m novice at York, but it was a performance which showed signs of clear potential. While her form falls short of some of the others, it is interesting that connections have turned to jockey Jamie Spencer who has won the race a record four times.
SELECTIONS: 5. FAIRY GODMOTHER, 11. MOUNTAIN BREEZE, 17. TWAFEEG, 10. LIBERALISED & 15. SIMMERING
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S4-1: Multiple – 5. FAIRY GODMOTHER & 11. MOUNTAIN BREEZE
S4-2: Multiple – 4. INISHERIN & 5. JASOUR
S4-2 Commonwealth Cup
INISHERIN ran a big race for such an inexperienced colt when stepped up significantly in class to finish sixth to NOTABLE SPEECH in the G1 2000 Guineas at Newmarket over 1,600m at the start of May, leading until the final 300m. Trainer Kevin Ryan’s decision to drop him back to sprint trips paid dividends when he made his high cruising speed count to hold a prominent position before impressively pulling well clear of ORNE in the 1,200m G2 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock last month. Having raced only four times there is still likely to be further improvement to come.
JASOUR also struggled after a promising start to his career last season which included winning the G2 July Stakes over 1,200m from LAKE FOREST. He was pulling too hard in the early stages of his races, but trainer Clive Cox worked hard over the winter to get JASOUR to settle. That was rewarded when Jim Crowley’s mount channelled his energy in the right direction to surge from the back of the field to comfortably win the G3 Commonwealth Cup Trial Stakes last month with STARLUST back in sixth.
ELITE STATUS looked a colt of considerable promise early last season, finishing third in the G2 Norfolk Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot and winning the G3 Prix de Cabourg at Deauville over 1,200m before his form tailed off in the autumn when unsuccessfully competing at two G1 races. Trainer Karl Burke, who won this race with QUIET REFLECTION in 2016, has said injury niggles affected those later performances, but he returned to action with a clear-cut success in a Listed race over 1,200m at Newbury last month when MALC, POCKLINGTON, LOUIS BARTHAS and SYMBOLOGY were all behind.
Despite his Newbury defeat behind ELITE STATUS, lightly-raced and well-bred POCKLINGTON can make an impact if he has learnt from the experience. He had looked to be developing into a useful sprinter when he won his two starts on the all-weather at Newcastle over 1,200m in January and March.
PANDORA’S GIFT, who represents a stable which has a knack of producing decent sprinters, has been on a steep upward form curve. She had plenty in hand when winning a 1,200m Listed race for fillies at Chelmsford last month.
SELECTIONS: 4. INISHERIN, 5. JASOUR, 1. ELITE STATUS, 12. POCKLINGTON & 15. PANDORA’S GIFT
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S4-2: Multiple – 4. INISHERIN & 5. JASOUR
S4-3: Multiple – 5. OPERA SINGER & 7. RAMATUELLE
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S4-2:
Banker – 4. INISHERIN
Selections – 5. JASOUR, 1. ELITE STATUS, 12. POCKLINGTON & 15. PANDORA’S GIFT
S4-3:
Banker – 5. OPERA SINGER
Selections – 7. RAMATUELLE, 3. ELMALKA, 6. PORTA FORTUNA & 10. SKELLET
S4-3 Coronation Stakes
A minor injury in the spring disrupted OPERA SINGER’s season but she should be able to get it back on track in this 1,594m G1 race for 3YO fillies. Aidan O’Brien’s runner produced a performance which saw her crowned as Europe’s top 2YO filly for 2023 when she romped to an easy victory in the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac at ParisLongchamp over 1,600m in October. The injury meant she missed the G1 1000 Guineas at Newmarket over 1,600m at the beginning of May and O’Brien’s comments suggested Ryan Moore’s mount was short of peak fitness when she finally made it to the track for the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas over 1,600m at the Curragh last month. In the circumstances OPERA SINGER ran creditably, fading in the final 200m when finishing third to FALLEN ANGEL. That run should ensure she is much sharper for this race.
In her absence the G1 1000 Guineas over 1,600m at Newmarket resulted in a blanket finish in which ELMALKA edged out second-placed PORTA FORTUNA and third RAMATUELLE. ELMALKA emerged with plenty of credit for her last-to-first run and given she still showed signs of her inexperience in only her third race, it is fair to assume that she still has scope to improve.
However, the result looked like it could have been different if French-trained RAMATUELLE had been ridden with more restraint. She was urged into a clear lead 400m from the finish only to tire on the climb to the finish line, slipping from first to third in the final two strides. It is no surprise her jockey, who has little experience of British tracks, has been replaced by Britain’s three-time champion jockey Oisin Murphy.
PORTA FORTUNA is very solid. She won the G3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot last year and since then, she has run in five G1 races, winning the Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket in September last year as well as finishing second three times and third once.
SKELLET has the physique to improve as she gets older. She was eighth on her seasonal debut in the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas over 1,600m but ran better than her finishing position suggests, finishing strongly after being bumped shortly after the start.
SELECTIONS: 5. OPERA SINGER, 7. RAMATUELLE, 3. ELMALKA, 6. PORTA FORTUNA & 10. SKELLET
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S4-3: Multiple – 5. OPERA SINGER & 7. RAMATUELLE
S4-4: Multiple – 15. SHADOW DANCE & 5. SAFECRACKER
S4-4 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes
SHADOW DANCE looks to have been saved for this hot 2,392m handicap. He hasn’t run since finishing a close second behind ALSAKIB over 2,400m at Newmarket in October having previously made a successful handicap debut over 2,327m at Haydock. The winner of the Newmarket contest went on to be competitive in G3 races and the soft ground would not have been ideal for SHADOW DANCE. He is bred to prefer this much faster surface and he’s also been gelded since he last ran, which often helps a horse improve.
SAFECRACKER was consistent around 2,400m last season. He landed a good Curragh handicap at this distance on fast ground last July when he got the strong pace he likes. The 2,000m trip was on the short side when he made a promising return to action behind CRYSTAL BLACK and DEAKIN at the Curragh last month.
He didn’t get the clearest passage in the closing stages and he is sure to be sharper for that run. This race could suit him perfectly.
ETHICAL DIAMOND didn’t show much in three hurdles starts after joining Champion Jumps Trainer Willie Mullins but he bounced back to form when returned to the Flat over 2,000m last month. He was caught a bit wide in that Leopardstown handicap but he finished his race strongly and only went down by a nose. The step up in distance is sure to help ETHICAL DIAMOND as his only previous victory came in a Limerick maiden over 2,464m last year.
DEAKIN was only caught close to the finishing line when runner-up behind CRYSTAL BLACK on his first run of the season over 2,000m at the Curragh last month. He had won his final two races of last year over longer distances by wide margins. The cheekpieces he wore to victory at both Roscommon over 2,327m and Thurles over 2,498m seem to have helped him enormously.
BAGUE D’OR is a strong stayer with a liking for fast ground. He won a handicap over 2,831m at Ascot last year. It was good to see him make a winning return over 2,800m at Newmarket last month and this strongly-run race is likely to play to his strengths.
SELECTIONS: 15. SHADOW DANCE, 5. SAFECRACKER, 16. ETHICAL DIAMOND, 9. DEAKIN & 11. BAGUE D’OR
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S4-4: Multiple – 15. SHADOW DANCE & 5. SAFECRACKER
S4-5: Multiple – 17. INDELIBLE & 10. FLIGHT OF FANCY
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S4-4:
Banker – 15. SHADOW DANCE
Selections – 5. SAFECRACKER, 16. ETHICAL DIAMOND, 9. DEAKIN & 11. BAGUE D’OR
S4-5:
Banker – 17. INDELIBLE
Selections – 10. FLIGHT OF FANCY, 4. SOPRANO, 22. ZAYNAB & 3. JULICA
S4-5 Sandringham Stakes
The Sandringham Stakes is a 1,600m handicap for 3YO fillies and is a devilishly difficult puzzle to solve.
INDELIBLE looks like a well handicapped filly to follow. She got off the mark over 1,601m at Lingfield in November 2023 with a taking win on her second career start for Ralph Beckett. Her seasonal reappearance was a smart win over 1,600m at Doncaster, defeating a better fancied owner-mate. She is impeccably bred and could be about to show a whole new level of form.
Aidan O’Brien has never trained the winner of this race, but his FLIGHT OF FANCY is interesting. She was a close fifth on debut to subsequent G1 Oaks winner EZELIYA over 1,600m on her only start as a 2YO, and made a pleasing reappearance this year when third to a smart Joseph O’Brien filly. She ran well on handicap debut back over 1,600m last time out and with fast ground likely to suit, she could go close.
George Boughey’s runners increasingly demand respect at big meetings, and his SOPRANO could be worth a look. She ran well to finish third in the G3 Albany Stakes over 1,200m behind future G1 winner PORTA FORTUNA at this meeting last year. SOPRANO maintained her form throughout last year, notably when second to future G1 Irish 1000 Guineas heroine FALLEN ANGEL in a G3 over 1,400m. She hasn’t disgraced herself in two runs this year and could show up well at 1,600m.
Gordon Elliott rarely runs horses in a race like this, but ZAYNAB has a lot going for her. She progressed from defeat on debut to then win on her second start in a 1,400m maiden. Then she showed she handles faster ground by defeating the aforementioned FLIGHT OF FANCY stepped up to 1,600m at the Curragh. There could be more to come, and she could give her handler a famous Ascot success.
French-trained runners don’t regularly win the Sandringham, but JULICA could buck that trend. Christophe Ferland’s filly showed enough ability in her first two wins, both over 1,600m at La Teste De Buch, to be tried in the 1,600m G1 Prix Marcel Boussac at ParisLongchamp. She bumped into an Aidan O’Brien star that day but demonstrated that she’d suffered no ill-effects with a confidence-boosting win at Toulouse a month later over 1,600m Listed race. Her runs as a 3YO have been respectable and she could hit the frame here.
SELECTIONS: 17. INDELIBLE, 10. FLIGHT OF FANCY, 4. SOPRANO, 22. ZAYNAB & 3. JULICA
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S4-5: Multiple – 17. INDELIBLE & 10. FLIGHT OF FANCY
S4-6: Multiple – 1. AGENDA & 10. SPACE LEGEND
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S4-5: Multiple – 17. INDELIBLE, 10. FLIGHT OF FANCY & 4. SOPRANO
S4-6: Multiple – 1. AGENDA, 10. SPACE LEGEND & 2. CALANDAGAN
S4-7: Multiple – 2. SOMMELIER, 6. JUBILEE WALK & 17. TWO TRIBES
S4-6 King Edward VII Stakes
The 2,392m G2 King Edward VII Stakes looks a particularly tough one to call, with plenty of runners in with a chance.
Eyes are drawn to Aidan O’Brien’s colt AGENDA. An impressive maiden win first time out this season at Dundalk over 2,136m in March on his polytrack debut was followed by a decent second at Chester last month over 2,457m, showing he’s versatile and will stay this trip well. There was no disgrace being beaten by a potentially high-class rival at Chester and should he continue his progression here, it would give him a strong chance.
SEA THE STARS colt SPACE LEGEND is also a notable entry for 2021-winning trainer William Haggas. He made light work of his maiden at Leicester over 2,000m, winning by over five lengths, followed by an unlucky second in Listed company at Goodwood over 2,240m where he got going far too late in the day. The step up in trip here should suit and he looks a key contender.
CALANDAGAN is untested on faster ground but on pedigree should appreciate this sound surface. Travelling over for French trainer Francis-Henri Graffard, he looks an interesting contender coming here on the back of two G3 wins at ParisLongchamp over 2,100m and 2,200m. Further improvement will be needed but he looks to be progressing well and should play a hand in the finish.
The highest-rated runner, DIEGO VELAZQUEZ, was a little disappointing when lacking the pace to get involved in the G1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains over 1,600m at ParisLongchamp last month and then fading when stepped up to 2,100m in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly. A return to good ground and this drop in class should help but he needs to improve on what he’s shown this season to date.
Ralph Beckett’s MACDUFF is one at a larger price who could be worth a look despite a poor showing in the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,405m at Epsom last time out. Some horses just don’t handle the unique nature of Epsom, so it’s worth forgiving that run. Prior to that, the Juddmonte colt chased home one of Godolphin’s stable stars at Sandown in the G3 Classic Trial over 1,990m. Fast ground is no concern and he should stay this trip, so he could well be involved if bouncing back from his run last time.
SELECTIONS: 1. AGENDA, 10. SPACE LEGEND, 2. CALANDAGAN, 5. DIEGO VELAZQUEZ & 7. MACDUFF
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S4-6: Multiple – 1. AGENDA & 10. SPACE LEGEND
S4-7: Multiple – 2. SOMMELIER & 6. JUBILEE WALK
S4-7 Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes
A field of 28 runners are set to take their chance in Friday’s finale, the Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes, a handicap for 3YOS over the straight 1,000m.
SOMMELIER ran an eye-catching race when finishing behind a classy G1 performer at York over 1,000m last month. The winner has since gone on to finish third in the G1 King Charles III Stakes on the first day of Royal Ascot, so it looks like excellent form, especially as SOMMELIER wasn’t receiving that much of a weight concession. The booking of Ryan Moore signals connections’ intent and he should be involved in the finish.
JUBILEE WALK won on a handicap at York over 1,000m most recently, showing a fine turn of foot at the finish to power clear of his rivals. That race was run just a day after the one SOMMELIER ran in and interestingly JUBILEE WALK clocked a quicker time over the same 1,000m. That was his third win in a row, following successes at Salisbury and Kempton (both 1,200m), so it’s clear James Ferguson’s runner is improving rapidly. He will have to after a rise in the ratings but looks capable of a bold bid for a four-timer.
Richard Spencer’s TWO TRIBES has more handicap experience than most of his rivals, running four good races over trips from 1,000m to 1,200m. He won on handicap debut last season at Sandown over 1,009m and then just missed out by a head in his bid to follow up at Chelmsford over 1,000m. He returned this season over 1,200m at Newmarket, hitting the front entering the final 200m but just running out of steam at the finish when beaten by a subsequent winner. TWO TRIBES should appreciate this drop back to 1,000m and fast conditions look sure to suit as well.
Trainer Archie Watson won this race last year and he has an intriguing contender once again in DYRHOLAEY. This handicap debutant is unbeaten in three starts to date, with wins over 1,200m at Chelmsford and Wolverhampton, and over 1,000m at Newcastle last time. All those wins have been on the all-weather, but Ascot’s straight course often suits horses that go well on an artificial surface.
DORNEY LAKE is another that could go well on handicap debut, after an impressive novice win on the turf at Lingfield over 1,200m last time out. He should have the pace for this drop back in trip and is another that has place claims.
SELECTIONS: 2. SOMMELIER, 6. JUBILEE WALK, 17. TWO TRIBES, 20. DYRHOLAEY & 21. DORNEY LAKE
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
