Tim Carroll 's Bio

Tim started off as a jockey in Australia before pursuing a media career. He is a highly experienced and respected racing presenter who has been based in England since 2005. Tim has travelled the world covering many of the major meetings, including Royal Ascot, The Epsom Derby, The International meeting from Sha Tin, The Dubai World Cup, The Everest, The Saudi Cup and The Breeders. He is currently a presenter for Sky Sports Racing, specialising in both the local and international scene. Tim is a regular contributor to the At The Races Website where his twice weekly tipping column on Hong Kong racing has gathered a strong following.

Ascot Racecourse – Track Analysis (Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes Day)

Ascot is a large right-handed galloping triangular shaped track, just over 2800m in circumference, with a straight run of 500m on the round course. There is a straight 1600m course, which all races below 1600m are held. There are two start points for races run over 1600m, one on the round course and the other on the straight course.

The track was redeveloped in 2005 and the ground in the straight drains quicker than the rest of the course, meaning ground descriptions can vary. Being a large track with an uphill finish dragging almost the entire straight (including the length of the straight course), Ascot suits hold-up horses, and front-runners need to be ridden conservatively to ensure they save energy.

Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes Day, day 5 of the Royal Ascot meeting see’s seven turf races for coverage.

For the three races on round course, the 1993m Golden Gates Stakes, runners start in back straight and travel downhill for approximately 200m before levelling out at Swindley Bottom and turning into a straight that sees a steady rise to the home turn, then enter the 500m home straight and run uphill until the finish. Statistically speaking, barriers are of little consequence, but like most races on the round course, horses ridden with patience tend to do well.

For the 2392m G2 Hardwicke Stakes, it is similar to the 1993m. The only difference is that the runners start from the highest point of the course, which is on the top of the back straight for 2392m, then head downhill for nearly 400m to the Swindley Bottom.

For the 4330m Queen Alexandra Stakes, they start toward the top of the straight course and have a long uphill run before meeting the first turn. After passing the winning post they head downhill, turning right onto the far side straight, before heading onto Swindley bottom and turning onto another straight, that gently rises. Then enter the 500m home straight, and run uphill until the finish. Barriers are of no consequence, but it is a stamina testing contest and although those on the front will be afforded every opportunity in steadily run races, backmarkers are suited in races run at a true tempo as the uphill rise in the straight will take its toll on those ridden aggressively.

For those races on the straight course, the 1400m G3 Jersey Stakes and the Listed Chesham Stakes and, as well as the 1200m G1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes and Wokingham Stakes, in smaller fields they tend to come down the middle, but in larger fields they can split into two and even three groups. The straight draw results will vary for 1200m, but it is advisable to look for the speed angle, especially in larger fields, as the winner usually comes from where the pace is, and results are more pace-dependent than draw-dependent. With the straight course being uphill nearly all the way, the further they go the more it suits horses ridden patiently, and those ridden with restraint normally do well.

For the feature race, G1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes over 1200m, this particular race can be difficult to predict with six of the last ten running’s seeing the field split into two groups, whilst the other four running’s saw them come down the straight in one group. Horses can win from anywhere. Of the last ten winners, five have tracked the speed, four have been mid division or held up, and one had led. Looking for the pace angle is always helpful, as if they go too quickly, the uphill drag will see those ridden with restraint come to the fore, but if they don’t go a decent pace, those on the front will continue to gallop up the hill.

Last year’s Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes was run on Good to Firm ground and saw a field of 16 go to post. On leaving the stalls CANNONBALL lost the rider as the remaining fifteen runners split into two groups. The favourite HIGHFIELD PRINCESS led the group closest to the grandstand, closely followed by ART POWER, EMARAATY ANA and ARTORIUS with those held up including RUN TO FREEDOM and Hong Kong, China runner WELLINGTON. Whilst the far side group was led by THE ASTROLOGIST with COEUR DE PIERRE, BIG INVASION and KINROSS in close attendance and those waited with included SACRED and KHAADEM. At the halfway point there had been no change, but it was the far side group, headed by THE ASTROLOGIST that held the advantage. At the 300m mark, SACRED and KINROSS were produced to lay down a challenge to THE ASTROLOGIST, whilst HIGHFIELD PRINCESS still led the near side group, but it was apparent the winner would come from the other side. SACRED got the better of the argument with both THE ASTROLOGIST and KINROSS went two lengths clear but as is often the way at Ascot, she was beginning to idle up the hill and the rank outsider, KHAADEM, who had been ridden with plenty of patience was closing hard and grabbed SACRED in the shadows of the post to win by a neck with HIGHFIELD PRINCE in third in a time that was 0.12 slower seconds than standard.

The weather forecast suggests light showers in the lead-up and potentially during the meeting. However, there is no heavy rain being forecast and Ascot does drain well. If the forecasts are accurate, then it’s likely we will see Good in the going description this year, but it could be Good to Soft if the rain does arrive.

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