 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
|---|---|
| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Takarazuka Kinen (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 Takarazuka Kinen
There are two major races in Japan, which the runners are selected by fan voting, and one of them is the G1 Takarazuka Kinen on 23rd June. The final G1 at JRA in the first half of year is usually conducted at Hanshin Racecourse. However, as Hanshin is closed for renovation of grand stand and some other facilities since April 2024, the 65th running of Takarazuka Kinen is transferred to Kyoto Racecourse.
My favorite is Shorai Hayashida’s BELLAGIO OPERA, 4YO colt by LORD KANALOA. It was obvious that BELLAGIO OPERA belonged to the top group of 3YO generation last year, when he won G2 Spring Stakes and finished fourth in G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) and it is also obvious that BELLAGIO OPERA is even better horse this year. He won G3 Challenge Cup on 2nd December 2023, despite it was first start since Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby)and his body weight was 20kg heavier than previous start. Though he was beaten second in G2 Kyoto Kinen on 11th February, he captured his first G1 on 31st March, when he won G1 Osaka Hai. I assess BELLAGIO OPERA is one of the best mile and quarter horses in Japan. He had an easy time at Champion Hills after Osaka Hai and returned to Hiroyuki Uemura’s barn in Ritto Training Center on 25th May. He was breezed at woodchip course on 12th June and it was very impressive, He clocked 81.5 seconds for six furlongs and covered final furlong for 10.8 seconds. I am sure he is ready to run his race on Sunday.
My second choice is PRADARIA, who won G2 Kyoto Kinen at same course and same distance as Takarazuka Kinen on 11th February, defeating BELLAGIO OPERA. He won G2 Kyoto Daishoten at Kyoto on 9th October 2023 and is 2 for 2 at Kyoto Racecourse. While rain is forecasted on this weekend at Kyoto, he is also 2 for 2 on softish ground.
The highest rated horse in the field is DO DEUCE, who received 238,367 votes and occupied the first place in fan voting. I am not surprised to see him winning this race on Sunday, however, I think there is a couple of discouraging factor. Firstly, he has never run at Kyoto Racecourse and I don’t know if he handles the track well. Also, expected softish ground is not suitable for him. I cannot rate DO DEUCE better than third choice.
My fourth choice is JUSTIN PALACE, who is in the same generation as EQUINOX, world champion in 2023. While he was not competitive running against elite runners when he was 3YO, he improved significantly and became much better horse when he was 4YO. He won G1 Tenno Sho Spring in April 2023 and finished second to EQUINOX in G1 Tenno Sho Autumn in October 2023. And he finished fourth in G1 Dubai Sheema Classic last time out and I assess it was a good effort.
ROUSHAM PARK, who was runner-up to BELLAGIO OPERA in G1 Osaka Hai, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 3. BELLAGIO OPERA, 7. PRADARIA, 4. DO DEUCE, 2. JUSTIN PALACE & 10. ROUSHAM PARK
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