 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Irish Derby Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Maddenstown Handicap
The opening contest on Irish Derby Day is a competitive 1,800m handicap for 3YOs.
Having won a Cork maiden over 1,600m in great style on his return this season, SHARINAY ran in a strong handicap at Naas over 1,600m and was only worn down in the closing stages. That was confirmed as a good effort when the winner went on to finish third in the G3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot. He perhaps lacked a change of gear at the finish at Naas, and being by a Derby winner HARZAND, he should improve for this step up in trip. A small rise in the handicap is unlikely to stop him going very close once again.
Despite not winning a maiden as a 2YO, THOR’S HAMMER showed plenty of ability on those occasions. He returned this season with a good second at Gowran Park over 1,400m and built on that when going one better at Killarney over 1,628m next time out. The form of that was boosted by the third winning since, and THOR’S HAMMER looked strong in the finish, so this step up in trip should be within his range. While he could be well-handicapped, he may be a horse that shows his best on softer ground, so any rain would improve his chances.
UK trainer Karl Burke sends ARABIC LEGEND over for this handicap. He has disappointed in two starts this season in Listed company, over 2,015m and 2,321m, but this drop in class and trip could see him bounce back to form, and he has the ability to be involved.
FORMAL DISPLAY has shown strong form in four starts to date. Ger Lyons' son of TOO DARN HOT was thought worthy of contesting the G2 Golden Fleece Stakes over 1,600m at Leopardstown last season and wasn’t disgraced in finishing sixth. A win on the polytrack at Dundalk over 1,600m followed in November before a respectable fifth in the Listed Glencairn Stakes over 1,800m on his recent reappearance at Leopardstown. Improvement can be expected on his second start of the season.
PRINCESS CHILD is an interesting runner for last year’s winning trainer Joseph O’Brien. This filly was formerly trained in Spain, winning three times from seven starts there over trips ranging from 1,200m to 1,600m, before then switching yard and running an excellent race to finish second in the Listed Prix Herod over 1,400m at Saint-Cloud. She is capable of going well fresh and should well prepped for this race.
SELECTIONS: 4. SHARINAY, 7. THOR’S HAMMER, 1. ARABIC LEGEND, 3. FORMAL DISPLAY & 2. PRINCESS CHILD
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 4. SHARINAY & 7. THOR’S HAMMER
S1-2: Multiple – 7. TUNBRIDGE WELLS & 6. THE STRIKIN VIKING
S1-2 Railway Stakes
Aidan O’Brien has won the G2 Railway Stakes 13 times, dominating it around the start of the century when he won it 10 times between 1999 and 2010. His iron grip on the contest has been loosened with only one victory in the last eight renewals but he looks to hold a very strong hand, led by TUNBRIDGE WELLS. He is a brother to BLACKBEARD, who was a two-time G1 winning 2YO at 1,200m in 2022. TUNBRIDGE WELLS improved significantly for his debut second at Navan in May when winning at the Curragh over 1,200m at the start of the month, decisively beating a rival who went on to finish runner-up at Royal Ascot last week.
O’Brien, who has three runners, also fields the interesting HENRI MATISSE, a half-brother to dual G1 winner TENEBRISM. He overcame signs of inexperience to win a Curragh maiden over 1,200m on debut with RED EVOLUTION just behind in third.
Trainer Kevin Ryan has a history of introducing some of his best 2YOs at York and there was plenty of confidence behind THE STRIKIN VIKING before he made a winning debut in a maiden over 1,200m at the track this month. Tom Eaves’s mount had the early pace to claim the lead and was never seriously challenged as he ran through the finishing line strongly.
ARIZONA BLAZE, who represents last year’s winning trainer Adrian Murray, is very solid. He won a maiden over 1,000m at the Curragh in March and the G3 Marble Hill Stakes over 1,200m at the track in May. He also emerged with plenty of credit dropping back to 1,000m when a close third in the G2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot, finishing strongly especially after racing alone on the stand’s rail.
There have been three British-trained winners of this race since 2000 and two of them were produced by the Hannon stable. That makes it look significant that Richard Hannon opted to skip Royal Ascot with PRINCIPALITY to take on this Irish challenge. A debut second to ANCIENT TRUTH at Newmarket over 1,200m in May was a respectable performance given that rival has won again since in good style and PRINCIPALITY did not have to be hard pressed to win a Goodwood novice over 1,200m at the beginning of this month.
SELECTIONS: 7. TUNBRIDGE WELLS, 6. THE STRIKIN VIKING, 2. HENRI MATISSE, 1. ARIZONA BLAZE & 3. PRINCIPALITY
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 7. TUNBRIDGE WELLS & 6. THE STRIKIN VIKING
S1-3: Multiple – 1. COMMANCHE FALLS & 4. ANO SYRA
S1-3 Belgrave Stakes
COMMANCHE FALLS was the winner of this 1,200m Listed race last year and he looks to have a great chance of retaining the trophy for British trainer Michael Dods. He went on to win a G3 contest over 1,200m at Newbury on his next start and he added another Listed prize to his haul when scoring over 1,200m at York later in the season. His second behind smart filly BELIEVING in a Haydock Listed race over 1,000m three weeks ago is good form. The winner finished a close fourth in both the G1 King Charles III Stakes and the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot.
ANO SYRA needs to bounce back to form from a disappointing display when last of nine over 1,000m at Cork two weeks ago, but he has a good record at the Curragh, especially over today’s 1200m distance. In five runs over this course and distance – all in Group races – he hasn’t finished out of the first four. His close third behind smart sprinters MITBAAHY and REGIONAL in the G2 Greenlands Stakes over 1,200m at the Curragh in May shows he’s a capable sprinter on his day.
MY MATE ALFIE has finished third in all three starts since his trainer, Ger Lyons, fitted him with blinkers. His third in a Navan Listed contest over 1,164m was followed by an even better effort when filling the same position behind BUCANERO FUERTE in a G3 over 1,186m at Naas last month and seems to be improving.
JAKAJARO found the drop to 1,000m for the first time too sharp when staying on into third in a Cork Listed race two weeks ago. He is much better over 1,200m as he showed when fourth behind JASOUR in an Ascot G3 in May. His fifth behind G1 winner BUCANERO FUERTE in a 1,186m G3 at Naas on his next start, when he ran into traffic problems, was another good effort.
TANGO FLARE finished fourth behind COMMANCHE FALLS in this race 12 months ago. He hit the target at the third time of asking this season with a smooth defeat of DANDYVILLE over 1,200m at Fairyhouse three weeks ago. That was the same race he won last year before running well in this contest and he looks to have found some improvement this season.
SELECTIONS: 1. COMMANCHE FALLS, 4. ANO SYRA, 8. MY MATE ALFIE, 7. JAKAJARO & 3. TANGO FLARE
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 1. COMMANCHE FALLS & 4. ANO SYRA
S1-4: Multiple – 14. KENDALL ROY & 10. STURLASSON
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3:
Banker – 1. COMMANCHE FALLS
Selections – 4. ANO SYRA, 8. MY MATE ALFIE, 7. JAKAJARO & 3. TANGO FLARE
S1-4:
Banker – 14. KENDALL ROY
Selections – 10. STURLASSON, 8. LITTLE QUEENIE, 11. HARRY’S HILL & 2. THUNDERBEAR
S1-4 Rockingham Handicap
KENDALL ROY can carry on his progression by securing a fourth win from five starts this year in the Rockingham Handicap over 1,000m at the Curragh. The Kate McGivern-trained 3YO has taken his form to another level since undergoing a gelding operation in March with handicap wins at Windsor, Thirsk and last time out over the same course and distance. Any rain that falls should not inconvenience the TWILIGHT SON gelding, whose Thirsk win was achieved on soft ground, and off a light weight he can run well again under Chris Hayes, who has won two out of his three starts on him.
STURLASSON is a sprinter heading in the right direction and he appears to be another that is likely to make a bold bid. The Kieran Cotter-trained 3YO found only subsequent Royal Ascot runner-up BLUE STORM too strong on his latest start under Oisin Murphy, who will ride him again, in a 1,000m handicap at Epsom. That effort can be marked up after the INVINCIBLE ARMY gelding was denied a clear run on several occasions mid-race before finishing strongly.
LITTLE QUEENIE made an encouraging return to action when finishing second on her first start in 203 days in a 1,200m handicap at the Curragh last month. Racing up with the pace throughout the Paul Flynn-trained mare was only passed late on by the eventual winner. With race fitness now on her side the drop back in trip should be a plus for the daughter of CAMACHO, whose last turf win came over a 1,000m at the Curragh in August.
Last year’s winner HARRY’S HILL has failed to score in six subsequent starts, however his latest effort suggested that he is returning to peak form. The Martin Hassett-trained 6YO showed plenty of encouragement to finish second in a 1,000m handicap at Navan. A repeat of that run will see him go close, while his chances will be helped by jockey Wayne Hassett taking weight off his back.
THUNDERBEAR got off the mark on his fifth start of the year last time in a 1,000m handicap at Navan under top-weight. The Jack Davision-trained 4YO brings a touch of class to the race having tasted G3 glory on heavy going at Newbury over 1,000m last season. Although carrying another big weight, any rain that falls will be a plus to the KODI BEAR gelding, who will be ridden once again by champion jockey Colin Keane.
SELECTIONS: 14. KENDALL ROY, 10. STURLASSON, 8. LITTLE QUEENIE, 11. HARRY’S HILL & 2. THUNDERBEAR
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 14. KENDALL ROY & 10. STURLASSON
S1-5: Multiple – 9. AZADA & 8. NORWALK HAVOC
S1-5 Celebration Stakes
The last three renewals of the Listed Celebration Stakes have been won by 3YOs, and the younger generation could once again hold sway here.
First up is AZADA who carries bottom-weight, receiving large amounts of weight from top-rated LORD MASSUSUS, which is likely to make this a far easier assignment for Dermot Weld’s charge. Although she only has two runs to her name, she got the experience last time out in top company in the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas over 1,600m where she showed promise coming home in sixth, having just weakened on approach to the winning post. With improvement likely, she should be a serious contender.
Another 3YO running off a light weight is NORWALK HAVOC. Having been tried over the 2,000m trip last time out, trainer Mrs John Harrington has decided to drop him back to this distance which seems to suit judging by past performances. Last time racing at the Curragh in the Listed Tetrarch Stakes over 1,600m he didn’t manage to get the job done and lost out by a length to the winner, but kept on well and we could see some more improvement this time.
LORD MASSUSUS enters as the highest-rated of the lineup, for Irish handler Joseph Murphy. On his last two starts over slightly longer trips, in the G2 Mooresbridge Stakes over 2,000m and the G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup over 2,100m at the Curragh, he showed some real promise, finishing behind the likes of high-class rivals WHITE BIRCH and AUGUSTE RODIN. He’s certainly got the engine and the step back down in trip and Grade could help him find his first win this season, although being top weight might be too much of a hindrance.
The fourth selection on the shortlist is ATLANTIC COAST. Last time out, Joseph O’Brien’s colt ran a decent race in particularly deep company in the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas over 1,600m last month when setting off as the joint outsider. Keeping up with the big guns ROSALLION, HAATEM and RIVER TIBER was too tough but in a less-competitive field here, we could see plenty of improvement for that run.
O’Brien fields another in this one with filly ROMINA POWER, who is having her first start for the Irish handler having previously been trained in France. She comes here fresh after a year-long layoff and the step back in trip here could see her run well first time up.
SELECTIONS: 9. AZADA, 8. NORWALK HAVOC, 1. LORD MASSUSUS, 3. ATLANTIC COAST & 4. ROMINA POWER
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 9. AZADA & 8. NORWALK HAVOC
S1-6: Multiple – 5. LOS ANGELES & 1. AMBIENTE FRIENDLY
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 9. AZADA
Selections – 8. NORWALK HAVOC, 1. LORD MASSUSUS, 3. ATLANTIC COAST & 4. ROMINA POWER
S1-6:
Banker – 5. LOS ANGELES
Selections – 1. AMBIENTE FRIENDLY, 6. MATSURI, 3. GROSVENOR SQUARE & 2. EUPHORIC
S1-6 Irish Derby
Aidan O’Brien’s record in the G1 Irish Derby means he is the obvious starting point when it comes to the Curragh Classic and LOS ANGELES stands out as the pick of his four contenders. Successful in the race an incredible 15 times, O’Brien saddled the son of CAMELOT to finish a fine third behind resurgent stablemate CITY OF TROY in the G1 Derby Stakes at Epsom and there was little wrong with that performance considering the way he got worked up and sweated beforehand. The 3YO, whose three victories from four starts include last year’s G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud over 2,000m, had no problem with the 2,400m Derby trip and the demands of the Curragh should play to his strengths, while any rain will not harm his chances.
AMBIENTE FRIENDLY, who appears versatile with regard to ground conditions, was second in G1 Derby Stakes at Epsom and moved through the historic contest sweetly, so makes plenty of appeal as well. Prior to the Derby, he had sparkled over 2,321m in the Listed Lingfield Derby Trial Stakes and his potent turn of foot is likely to be a dangerous weapon.
MATSURI is not rated as highly as that pair, but was an expensive yearling who possesses huge promise. He was lightly campaigned at two, but his trainer Roger Varian was keen on a crack at the Derby only for it to come too soon in the SEA THE STARS colt’s campaign. Missing Epsom might be a blessing in disguise for the Newmarket raider, who won easily at minor level over 2,000m at Leicester most recently. He has been at home on softer ground, but his breeding suggests a sounder surface should suit too.
Dismissing O’Brien runners lightly would be foolish, so GROSVENOR SQUARE merits closer inspection and he has the pedigree to excel being by phenomenal sire GALILEO. He was no match for the impressive winner in the 2,457m G3 Chester Vase Stakes, but should improve from that appearance.
Stablemate EUPHORIC did not shine in the G1 Derby Stakes, but his close second to LOS ANGELES in the G3 Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown in May is form that reads well and might be more indicative of his claims, and he had the raw talent to win first time out as a juvenile last term.
SELECTIONS: 5. LOS ANGELES, 1. AMBIENTE FRIENDLY, 6. MATSURI, 3. GROSVENOR SQUARE & 2. EUPHORIC
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 5. LOS ANGELES & 1. AMBIENTE FRIENDLY
S1-7: Multiple –1. COEUR D’OR & 3. STATE ACTOR
S1-7 Derby Festival Handicap
The Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot is arguably the toughest 1,600m handicap in the calendar, so we have to start with COEUR D’OR in this 1,600m handicap, as he finished an unlucky sixth in that race 11 days ago. But for suffering interference in the final 200m, COEUR D’OR would have made the frame at least. He made phenomenal progress last summer, winning three big handicaps, at Leopardstown over 1,800m, Galway over 1,700m and culminating with the Irish Cambridgeshire over 1,600m at The Curragh. The form of that last-named race, in which COEUR D’OR produced a career-best performance, has been given a real boost. COEUR D’OR got home in a three-way photo, only pegging back BLUES EMPEROR in the last stride. But right on their heels came CRYSTAL BLACK, who has won his next four races, putting the icing on the cake when winning the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot last week.
BLUES EMPEROR is trying to win this big handicap for the second year running. That success resulted in him shooting up the weights, and he has drawn a blank in five subsequent races, though he only just missed a place at the Curragh over 1,600m last time.
STATE ACTOR is the young improver in the race. Lightly-raced, he showed promise when placed in two 1,600m maidens on Dundalk’s polytrack surface. It was heavy ground when STATE ACTOR made it third time lucky on his turf debut at the Curragh over 1,600m, but he looked equally happy on a fast surface when producing an explosive finish to come from off the pace and win his first handicap on the same 1,600m course last month.
It’s always dangerous to ignore Adrian McGuinness’s runners in these big handicaps, and both his runners, CASANOVA and NO MORE PORTER, are interesting. CASANOVA has gone 30 races since his last success in 2021, but he has run brilliantly to finish a close third in the last two Irish Lincoln Handicaps over 1,600m and has since come down the weights.
NO MORE PORTER, who only just missed the frame in this race over 1,600m last year, returns after an absence of seven months but runs well fresh. He was only caught on the post by COEUR D’OR at Galway over 1,700m and has been second twice more since.
SELECTIONS: 1. COEUR D’OR, 3. STATE ACTOR, 7. CASANOVA, 2. BLUES EMPEROR & 9. NO MORE PORTER
7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple –1. COEUR D’OR & 3. STATE ACTOR
S1-8: Multiple – 5. KAYHANA & 2. DANCE NIGHT ANDDAY
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 1. COEUR D’OR, 3. STATE ACTOR & 7. CASANOVA
S1-8: Multiple – 5. KAYHANA, 2. DANCE NIGHT ANDDAY & 10. OJW LEGACY
S1-9: Multiple – 4. SATURN, 10. INTELLOTTO & 8. LOT OF JOY
S1-8 Summer Fillies Handicap
The Dermot Weld-Chris Hayes partnership has to be respected in the 1,400m Summer Fillies Handicap. They team up with KAYHANA, who shaped nicely on her seasonal reappearance in the valuable and competitive 1,600m Emerald Mile Handicap at this track. She ran well for a long way but just weakened in the final 200m, which was probably down to race fitness, but also a sign that she was at the limit of her stamina. She’s of interest stepping back down in trip on her second run of the campaign.
DANCE NIGHT ANDDAY needs to overcome a career-high mark but is clearly a filly thriving as a 4YO. She won by just a nose last time out over 1,200m at this track but always looked in command and could have more to offer over 1,400m. In her 3YO season she won over 1,400m on good ground and was a runner-up over 1,600m on the polytrack at Dundalk, so the extra distance shouldn’t be a problem.
OJW LEGACY is also stepping up in trip and comes into this off the back of a win over 1,300m. She showed a good attitude to battle all the way to the line on that last start and her pedigree suggests this sort of distance should suit.
In what is often an ultra-competitive handicap, it’s no surprise to see four of the last 10 renewals have been ridden to victory by a jockey claiming a weight allowance. Keithen Kennedy, who gets a sizable claim and is in good form, rides recent Royal Ascot competitor RAKNAH. The 3YO BLUE POINT filly was last seen finishing seventh in the 1,600m Sandringham Stakes and is one to note now running in calmer waters.
James Ryan is another apprentice jockey with recent winners to his name and his mount, PLUME NOIRE, comes into this off the back of a good win over 1,600m at Naas. Despite being a 6YO, she looks to be in the form of her life and is also a two-time winner over this 1,400m trip. She ticks a lot of boxes and with a good apprentice taking weight out of the saddle, she can be competitive.
SELECTIONS: 5. KAYHANA, 2. DANCE NIGHT ANDDAY, 10. OJW LEGACY, 14. RAKNAH & 6. PLUME NOIRE
8TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-8: Multiple – 5. KAYHANA & 2. DANCE NIGHT ANDDAY
S1-9: Multiple – 4. SATURN & 10. INTELLOTTO
S1-9 Ragusa Handicap
The Ragusa Handicap is run over the Irish Derby course and distance of 2,400m, is open to horses 4YOs and above, and this year features a host of interesting runners.
SATURN, a son of super-sire GALILEO out of top filly ALPHA CENTAURI, is one of the best-bred horses in training. Mrs John Harrington’s colt didn’t debut until 3YO and only managed to get off the mark at the fourth time of asking in a low-key 2,400m event at Dundalk in November. This season he’s improving; winning twice, and has been second to future Royal Ascot winner CRYSTAL BLACK, so he looks the one to beat here.
Willie Mullins is most known for his Jumps runners, but his LOT OF JOY catches the eye. She won the Svenskt St Leger over 3,000m before joining Mullins and has registered smart performances on the Flat since, most notably when third in the valuable Handicap over 3,300m in 2022. Given her stamina, it’s no surprise connections tried to make her into a jumper, where she was deemed able enough to compete at G1 level. Off a big absence, she might not be fit enough to win, but she has the class to hit the frame.
INTELLOTTO is another to note down. Joseph O’Brien ran him three times unsuccessfully on the Flat before gelding him and sending him jumping where he thrived, winning twice and competing in two G1 events. In May he broke his maiden on the Flat at Sligo over 2,127m, now runs off the same handicap mark, and looks to be primed to run a big race.
Another trained by Joseph O’Brien in this race is CARLO BIANCONI. He has been a work in progress, yet to win in his five starts, but was only denied victory on his penultimate start at Sligo over 2,127m due to a weight allowance technicality. Take note that a yard like O’Brien’s is stepping this gelding up into this company without an official win to his name, and he could run well with this track and trip to suit off a lightweight.
Last year’s winner SAFECRACKER, at the other end of the weights, could be about to show his best form again.
John Murtagh’s runner is not a regular winner but has mostly been a consistent type in his career. His rating is lofty due to his win in this last year but he has demonstrated his liking for this 2,400m trip and fast ground, and could hit the places.
SELECTIONS: 4. SATURN, 10. INTELLOTTO, 8. LOT OF JOY, 12. CARLO BIANCONI & 1. SAFECRACKER
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