Tim Carroll 's Bio

Tim started off as a jockey in Australia before pursuing a media career. He is a highly experienced and respected racing presenter who has been based in England since 2005. Tim has travelled the world covering many of the major meetings, including Royal Ascot, The Epsom Derby, The International meeting from Sha Tin, The Dubai World Cup, The Everest, The Saudi Cup and The Breeders. He is currently a presenter for Sky Sports Racing, specialising in both the local and international scene. Tim is a regular contributor to the At The Races Website where his twice weekly tipping column on Hong Kong racing has gathered a strong following.

Goodwood Racecourse – Track Analysis (Sussex Stakes Day):

Goodwood is one of the most spectacular and unique racecourses in the world. The track is right-handed with two home bends, and all races over 1400m, 1600m and 2200m enter the straight via the lower bend, whilst all other races enter via the top bend. The run in from the top bend is approximately 900m and 750m respectively, but given the nature of the turns and the downhill gradient, it is considered a sharp track, favouring those on the speed, particularly in shorter races. Horses that are held up off the pace can run into trouble, particularly those on the rail. The track has a straight course with starting points over 1000m and 1200m.

Sussex Stakes day sees seven races contested. Two of those on the straight course are the 1000m G3 Molecomb Stakes and 2yo Fillies Conditions. The low barriers are drawn on the far side with high numbers closest the grandstand rail. Over the 1000m horses with speed tend to dominate due to the downhill nature of the course, which is considered one of the fastest in the country. Horses that break slowly can find their race all over at the start. Speed horses are better suited to a low draw.

There are five races on the round course. For the 1400m G3 Oak Tree Stakes and HKJC World Pool Handicap, it is generally considered there is no draw bias on the round course, but my own research suggests horses drawn middle to low over 1400m have an advantage in larger fields. For the 1979m 3yo+ Fillies & Mares 86-105 Handicap, runners have a long straight run before turning right and like most race starts on the round course, the draw is of little consequence. For the 2398m 3yo 0-105 Handicap, they start from a chute on the left hand side of the course and have a decent straight run before turning right. Like most starts on the round course, there is no draw bias and horses are afforded every opportunity.

For the feature race 1600m G1 Sussex Stakes, the field will jump from halfway up the back straight where they briefly go downhill before climbing uphill then onto the lower loop into the 750m straight. It is generally considered there is no draw bias on the round course, but my own research suggests horses drawn middle to low over 1600m have an advantage in larger fields. Over the last ten years there has only been more than nine runners on one occasion in 2016, and the average field size in that time is 7.3, whilst the average winning barrier during that period is 4.3. Horses can come from anywhere to win. Last year’s winner, PADDINGTON, is the only one to have made all in the last ten editions of the race.

Last year's Sussex Stakes was run on Soft ground, with a field of five going to post. On leaving the stalls PADDINGTON took up the running at what was no more than a steady gallop with INSPIRAL and CHARYN close in behind, whilst FACTEUR CHEVAL & ALDAARY were waited with at the back, but only a few lengths off the leader. There was no change in the order as they entered the home straight, but all five runners headed to the outside rail looking for quicker ground. With 600m to go INSPIRAL had drawn level with PADDINGTON as FACTEUR CHEVAL started to pick up best of those in behind. Heading toward the final 200m, INSPIRAL hoisted to white flag and PADDINGTON was being ridden along but finding plenty for pressure as FACTEUR CHEVAL challenged to his inside. However, PADDINGTON was never headed, going on to win by one-and-a-half-lengths from FACTEUR CHEVAL, with CHARYN a further three-lengths back in third in a time that was 10.36 seconds slower than standard.

Over the last ten years the Sussex has been run seven times on ground with Good in the description. With very little rain forecast in the days leading up, and during the meeting, it is likely that at the very least, Good will be in the going description.

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