Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

 

Expert Column for Sussex Stakes Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)

 

S2-1     3yo 0-105 Handicap

 

This is a highly competitive 2,403m handicap containing plenty of 3YOs that could prove to be better than their handicap marks.

 

LORD OF LOVE looks to be in that category after seeing out the trip well at Newmarket July Course last time on his first attempt at 2,400m. He travelled like a horse that was well ahead of his mark there, cruising up on the outside of the field before staying on well up the stiff Newmarket finish to beat GOODWOOD ODYSSEY into third. Due to the narrow margin of his victory, he has only gone up slightly in the ratings for that win and remains well-treated.

 

The Andrew Balding yard won this race last season, and they have another strong contender in SUBSEQUENT. This son of GALILEO seemed to need every bit of the 2,405m when getting up late to score at Salisbury last time. While the form of that race is yet to work out, it was run in a fast time and it’s likely he will be capable of better in this bigger field.

 

FRENCH DUKE was set a tough task on handicap debut when being pitched into the King George V Stakes over 2,392m after only three starts. Roger Varian’s runner acquitted himself well in that big-field handicap, when beaten just 3.5 lengths into sixth. That run can be marked up too, as he was posted on the wide outside of the field from the start and made up a good amount of ground from the rear of the field. He’s much better drawn here and looks set to build on that experience.

 

The well-named GOODWOOD ODYSSEY has been highly consistent in five starts to date. He won well on handicap debut at Sandown over 1,990m in April and was then pitched into the London Gold Cup over 2,000m at Newbury, a race that often produces Group horses, and wasn’t disgraced. Stepped up to 2,400m for the first time at Newmarket’s July Course, he probably did a bit too much too soon and was caught at the finish by the strong finishing LORD OF LOVE. However, if settling better on this sharper track, he looks a player.

 

Aidan O’Brien’s GALLANTLY was sent off favourite on all of his first four runs in maiden and novice company, winning at Chester in May. While he didn’t show his best in the King George V Stakes over 2,392m last time, he looks capable of better judged on his maiden form.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. LORD OF LOVE, 3. SUBSEQUENT, 7. FRENCH DUKE, 4. GOODWOOD ODYSSEY & 6. GALLANTLY

 

1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-1: Multiple – 2. LORD OF LOVE & 3. SUBSEQUENT
S2-2: Multiple – 7. JABAARA & 1. BREEGE

 

S2-2     Oak Tree Stakes

 

This G3 1,408m fillies’ race is for 3YOs and upwards, and the younger brigade have held their own in the last decade. Triumphant the last two years with their generous weight allowance, the classic crop have an excellent chance of pulling off the hat-trick.

 

Having won two Listed races at Musselburgh and Carlisle, JABAARA then took a giant jump up in class for a tilt at G1 company for the first time in the Falmouth Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket’s July Course. Connections knew it would require a personal best performance, but JABAARA proved up to the task. Though no match for Royal Ascot’s Coronation Stakes heroine PORTA FORTUNA, who had previously only just failed to get up in the G1 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, JABAARA now has nothing of that calibre standing in her way.

 

Richard Hughes won the race as a jockey 21 years ago, and now he has definite possibilities of being on the winner’s podium as the trainer, courtesy of FAIR ANGELLICA. The filly’s one disappointing run in seven races came in the Sandringham Stakes but Hughes remains convinced that it was the 1,600m trip which exposed the filly’s stamina. She was then dropped down to Listed company to win well at Deauville over 1,400m, and, having now won four times over this trip, FAIR ANGELLICA would have a big shout.

 

However, I am certainly not underestimating the chances of the older fillies, particularly northern raider BREEGE. She knows her way around here, having been placed on all her three visits over 1,400m and 1,600m. Such a model of consistency, BREEGE has finished in the frame in 10 of her 15 starts and was only narrowly beaten in this race last year. She is already a G3 winner, so with the trip and ground perfect, she looks sure to be right there at the finish.

 

RAQIYA would prefer underfoot conditions remain decent and she goes up in trip here, having won twice over 1,200m last season.

 

SELECTIONS: 7. JABAARA, 1. BREEGE, 6. FAIR ANGELLICA & 9. RAQIYA

 

2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-2: Multiple – 7. JABAARA & 1. BREEGE
S2-3: Multiple – 1. AESTERIUS & 8. MR LIGHTSIDE

 

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S2-2:   
Banker – 7. JABAARA
Selections – 1. BREEGE, 6. FAIR ANGELLICA & 9. RAQIYA
S2-3:   
Banker – 1. AESTERIUS
Selections – 8. MR LIGHTSIDE, 13. VINGEGAARD, 15. CELANDINE & 16. USDI ATOHI

 

S2-3     Molecomb Stakes

 

Trainer Archie Watson has a strong hand in the G3 Molecomb Stakes over 1,000m. He runs both AESTERIUS and VINGEGAARD in this 1,000m contest for 2YOs. AESTERIUS suffered his only defeat in three starts when a close fifth in the G2 Norfolk Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot. The form of that race looks well up to scratch and he finished just a short-head behind subsequent G2 July Stakes hero WHISTLEJACKET. He had gone into that G2 contest on the back of a smooth debut victory at Bath over 1,009m. Most recently he bounced back from his Royal Ascot defeat with an impressive 1,009m victory in the Listed Dragon Stakes at Sandown in early July.

 

Michael Appleby won this race last year with BIG EVS and he has another speedy youngster on his hands in the shape of MR LIGHTSIDE. He put a modest debut over 1,200m at Leicester firmly behind him when successful over 1,000m at Redcar. The form of that race worked out well with two of the next three home winning their next starts. He was even more impressive under a weight penalty when showing smart speed to make all the running over 1,007m at Nottingham.

 

VINGEGAARD was second home of the group to race down the centre when fifth in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot. He again showed smart speed when headed in the final strides in the Weatherbys Super Sprint over 1,031m at Newbury and this track promises to play to his strengths.

 

CELANDINE twice made all the running to win over 1,200m – including in the Listed Empress Fillies’ Stakes at Newmarket’s July Course – before finishing a creditable third in the G2 Prix Robert Papin over 1,200m at Chantilly in France. She again showed plenty of pace to lead the field for much of the race and only backed out of it in the last 150m. Judging by that, Ed Walker’s filly clearly has the speed for her first try at 1,000m.

 

USDI ATOHI is unbeaten in two starts over 1,000m. Her only defeat came in a G3 at Naas over 1,186m when she was ridden patiently to get the longer distance and those tactics backfired. A prominent ride over this distance looks to suit her much better.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. AESTERIUS, 8. MR LIGHTSIDE, 13. VINGEGAARD, 15. CELANDINE & 16. USDI ATOHI

 

3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-3: Multiple – 1. AESTERIUS & 8. MR LIGHTSIDE
S2-4: Multiple – 6. ROSALLION & 4. HENRY LONGFELLOW

 

S2-4     Sussex Stakes

 

ROSALLION looks hard to oppose in his bid to make it a hat-trick of G1 wins this season in the Sussex Stakes over 1,608m at Goodwood. Since finishing second in the G1 2000 Guineas over 1,600m at Newmarket, the Richard Hannon-trained son of BLUE POINT has secured victories in the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas and the G1 St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot. The last 10 renewals have been won on five occasions by 3YOs, which is another tick in his favour. With ground conditions at the track continuing to dry out that will help him even more, with all his best form so far achieved on a fast surface.

 

HENRY LONGFELLOW chased home ROSALLION at Royal Ascot’s G1 St James’s Palace Stakes and he appears the chief threat once again when attempting to give Aidan O’Brien a record equalling seventh win in the race. A tactical error was blamed for his defeat on his comeback eighth in the G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains over 1,600m at ParisLongchamp. He showed that run to be all wrong when only getting worn down late on by ROSALLION, after being ridden more prominently back on a faster surface at Royal Ascot. The switch to a sharper 1,608m is likely to suit and he looks set to make another bold bid.

 

NOTABLE SPEECH lost his unbeaten record behind ROSALLION at Royal Ascot but, as the winner of this year’s G1 2000 Guineas, he still remains a horse with lots of potential. Having been keen during the early stages of his latest outing, the son of DUBAWI failed to sparkle at the end of the race after beating only one rival home. On that performance an element of trust will need to be taken that it was a one off, but that is entirely possible given he has only had five career starts.

 

MALJOOM looked a colt going places in 2022 until injury interrupted his campaign, however he has steadily worked his way back to form. After making just one start last season, the son of CARAVAGGIO has finished third in the Listed Paradise Stakes over 1,600m at Ascot this year, before taking a big step forward when filling the same position back at the track in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes over 1,600m. While he has to give weight away to his younger rivals, he appears likely to give his running once again on ideal conditions.

 

SELECTIONS: 6. ROSALLION, 4. HENRY LONGFELLOW, 5. NOTABLE SPEECH & 2. MALJOOM

 

4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-4: Multiple – 6. ROSALLION & 4. HENRY LONGFELLOW
S2-5: Multiple – 4. AL ANOUD & 7. ROARIN’ SUCCESS

 

S2-5     3yo+ Fillies & Mares 86-105 Handicap

 

Ralph Beckett has won this race twice in the last four years and seems set to be involved again courtesy of the unexposed AL ANOUD, who leaps off the page. She won both of her starts last term over 2,000m and was an encouraging second on her return over that distance at Windsor in May. Connections then tried her over 2,405m next time at Pontefract, but the daughter of KINGMAN weakened in the closing stages and coming back in trip to 1,984m looks a sensible move, while fast ground is likely to suit too.

 

ROARIN’ SUCCESS is much more experienced after 11 starts, but still possesses potential for Harry Charlton. The 4YO had some fair form mainly over 1,600m last season and was second at that distance at Ascot and Doncaster before being well beaten in the 1,600m Kensington Palace Stakes. However, she was slowly away from the stalls that day and the performance is easily forgiven considering the step she took back in the right direction at Salisbury last time. That came over this 1,984m trip and was arguably a career-best, especially as she got a bump in running late on.

 

Another filly of interest is POWER OF DESTINY, who has been third, first and second in her three starts, which have been over 1,983m to 2,045m. Her opening handicap mark seems reasonable, and jockey Oisin Murphy has a healthy strike-rate when riding for her master trainer Sir Michael Stoute.

 

She could soon be going places and that also applies to ELLADONNA, who created a decent impression when winning a Nottingham handicap over 2,045m in May before following up over the same distance at Salisbury in front of ROARIN’ SUCCESS. She hung right that day and is not the finished article but can be expected to make a bold bid for her hat-trick under Ryan Moore, who is an eye-catching jockey booking.

 

At the age of 6, WISPER, whose trainer Marcus Tregoning likes to target this meeting, is more exposed than some of her rivals, but she is a reliable mare who was not far off a career-best last time, while her fondness for Brighton offers hope the undulations of Goodwood will play to her strengths.

 

SELECTIONS: 4. AL ANOUD, 7. ROARIN’ SUCCESS, 9. POWER OF DESTINY, 8. ELLADONNA & 6. WISPER

 

5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 4. AL ANOUD & 7. ROARIN’ SUCCESS
S2-6: Multiple – 11. XANTHE & 4. COTO DE CAZA

 

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-5:   
Banker – 4. AL ANOUD
Selections – 7. ROARIN’ SUCCESS, 9. POWER OF DESTINY, 8. ELLADONNA & 6. WISPER
S2-6:   
Banker – 11. XANTHE
Selections – 4. COTO DE CAZA, 1. BAILEYS JUBILATION, 6. KUWAITYA & 8. RADIO STAR

 

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 4. AL ANOUD, 7. ROARIN’ SUCCESS & 9. POWER OF DESTINY
S2-6: Multiple – 11. XANTHE, 4. COTO DE CAZA & 1. BAILEYS JUBILATION
S2-7: Multiple – 19. MISS INFORMATION, 11. DRAGON LEADER & 14. SIGNCASTLE CITY

 

S2-6     2yo Fillies Conditions

 

XANTHE finished at sixth position in the G2 Queen Mary Stakes in June. That was a solid run from XANTHE following her narrow debut victory, also at Ascot over 1,000m, in May. Her trainer Richard Hannon likes to target this meeting and dropping down in grade she should play a part in the finish.

COTO DE CAZA was edged out in a blanket finish on her debut at Lingfield over 997m last month when just behind winner BAILEYS JUBILATION and runner-up LUCKY GIFT. Both of COTO DE CAZA’s rival had racecourse experience and that seemed to play a part in the outcome as she just lacked a bit of race craft after travelling smoothly throughout the majority of the race. COTO DE CAZA then took a significant step forward when running out a wide-margin winner of a maiden race over 1,000m at Beverley in mid-July. Immediately after that run this race was identified as a target by her stable.

BAILEYS JUBILATION must enter calculations. It took her until her fourth start to record her first success in that Lingfield’s 997m race but that came as a result of her early pace from the starting stalls. That is something she has shown in her previous starts. That is a positive on Goodwood’s downhill track which favours speed horses.

 

KUWAITYA, who has been tried in Listed races in France finishing third at Vichy over 1,000m in May, produced a career best when sixth in Newbury’s Weatherbys Super Sprint over 1,031m earlier this month. She was fitted with cheekpieces for the first time there and they seemed to have a positive effect as KUWAITYA was in the firing line, only weakening in the final 200m. KUWAITYA wears the cheekpieces again and her early speed should prove an asset for her as well.

 

It looks significant that RADIO STAR is allowed to make her debut in such a competitive race. She represents the stable of trainer Ollie Sangster who has some very useful 2YOs including last Saturday’s Ascot winner SIMMERING. That should have given him a good reference point to the level of RADIO STAR’s ability.

 

SELECTIONS: 11. XANTHE, 4. COTO DE CAZA, 1. BAILEYS JUBILATION, 6. KUWAITYA & 8. RADIO STAR

 

6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-6: Multiple – 11. XANTHE & 4. COTO DE CAZA
S2-7: Multiple – 19. MISS INFORMATION & 11. DRAGON LEADER

 

S2-7     HKJC World Pool Handicap

 

MISS INFORMATION arrives in pursuit of her third consecutive win and has really seemed to kick into gear in the past month or so. Winning both at Chepstow and Epsom over 1,415m and 1,403m races by 6.8 lengths in total, this filly looks the type to challenge off a low weight. Although stepping back up in class, her recent form dictates an upwards trajectory, and it will be interesting to see what she can produce here with Oisin Murphy in the saddle.

 

Clive Cox’s DRAGON LEADER, who hasn’t yet reclaimed his two-year-old form, could bounce back in this. The last time Richard Kingscote partnered DRAGON LEADER was when winning a Listed race at Redcar over 1,197m last October and he has only run three times since. This colt has had ample time to recover since his last run in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot over 1,600m, and the step back down to a more familiar trip could see plenty of improvement.

 

METAVERSE looks an interesting type for David Menuisier, with Tom Marquand booked to ride. With two silver medals and a win over 1,400m to his name since his 71 day lay-off in early spring, it’s clear that break had the intended effect. Coming here fresh from a handicap win at Newmarket July Course over 1,400m, where the son of STARSPANGLEDBANNER managed to justify his favourite status when winning well, you’d like to think he’ll improve yet again.

 

Two of Richard Hannon’s runners worth looking at are SIGNCASTLE CITY and MUMS TIPPLE. The Wiltshire-based handler has an impressive resume when it comes to this race, having saddled three winners in the last six renewals. SIGNCASTLE CITY has won and placed in both of his last runs this season over 1,400m, as well as winning over 1,600m at Bath in May. He should go well again.

 

Despite being higher in the weights than his stablemate, former high-class performer, MUMS TIPPLE, is an interesting runner in the line-up. As one of the older horses in the field at seven, he certainly has the experience to back it up, making his 46th career appearance here. Despite some underwhelming performances of late, this horse knows how to win and could be capable of surprising.

 

SELECTIONS: 19. MISS INFORMATION, 11. DRAGON LEADER, 14. SIGNCASTLE CITY, 10. METAVERSE & 6. MUMS TIPPLE

 

 

 

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