 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Nassau Stakes Day (S3) (Bill Esdaile)
S3-1 3yo Handicap
The opening race on Thursday of the Goodwood Festival is a competitive 3YO handicap over 1,984m.
PALACE GREEN is a horse who could be ready to show a new level of form after three promising runs this year. Richard Hughes’ charge gained experience as a 2YO before impressively getting off the mark at Kempton on his 2024 return over 1,999m. Since then, he has put up two respectable performances, including when not disgraced in a smart Royal Ascot handicap over 1,993m where he was repeatedly short of room before running on.
There aren’t many better-bred horses than MIDNIGHT GUN in this race, by KINGMAN and out of four-time G1 winner SKY LANTERN. He has had four starts to date, arriving here off two wins over 1,668m and 1,600m, first at Nottingham and then Newmarket July Course. His handicap mark has risen as a result, but he remains open to move improvement again over this longer trip, representing new trainer H A Al Jehani.
SISYPHEAN now seems a horse back on the right track after some in and out runs. He took four goes to win for the first time, scoring over 1,605m on the Polytrack at Newcastle, but then followed that with a poorer effort at Newmarket over the same trip. After a wind operation, he then turned his form inside out with a five-length victory at York over the 1,575m, he looks open to more again.
Looking at his five races this season, BLAKE is a consistent type capable of another fine effort. Peter Chapple-Hyam’s colt was third, second and first on his first three runs this year, all over 1,600m, and then raised his form further with a fine fourth at Epsom. Crucially that, and his subsequent victory at Sandown, were over 2,015m and 1,990m, and he looks set to be in the shake-up once more.
Towards the bottom of the weights, INTO BATTLE could hit the frame. Raced five times in his career, Ed Walker’s gelding won over 1,600m as a juvenile and has seemed to relish further trips this term. He has won over 1,703m and shown strong form over longer distances since, including when a fine fifth at Newbury over 2,000m in May. This represents a stern challenge, but with Hollie Doyle in the plate, he should be able to compete.
SELECTIONS: 9. PALACE GREEN, 4. MIDNIGHT GUN, 8. SISYPHEAN, 10. BLAKE & 12. INTO BATTLE
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-1: Multiple – 9. PALACE GREEN & 4. MIDNIGHT GUN
S3-2: Multiple – 7. THE STRIKIN VIKING & 1. APARAJEO
S3-2 Richmond Stakes
THE STRIKIN VIKING brings some of the best form into this renewal of the G2 Richmond Stakes over Goodwood’s 1,200m. After an impressive debut win at York over 1,200m, where he beat a subsequent Class 2 winner with ease, he was only narrowly denied in the G2 Railway Stakes over 1,200m at the Curragh. He probably wasn’t suited to the tactical nature of that race and was picked off by a fast-finishing rival in the last 50m. Since then, he has switched yards to H A Al Jehani, and a similar effort to last time would give him every chance of making a winning start for his new connections.
Trainer Clive Cox has won the Richmond on two previous occasions and interestingly both those were with horses that had won a maiden at Windsor. APARAJEO treads that same path, having been successful on debut at the same track over 1,211m in mid-July. He showed a good turn of foot to quicken up in the final 200m there and this sharp track should suit him well.
The form of the G2 Norfolk Stakes over 1,000m from Royal Ascot looks to be working out, and that means runner-up in that contest, TROPICAL STORM, is of strong interest here. Although still a maiden after three starts, Andrew Balding’s runner has gone close in his last two outings and now looks ready for this step up to 1,200m for the first time.
BILLBOARD STAR made all the running to score comfortably on his second start at Newmarket’s July Course over 1,200m in June and was unlucky to bump into a smart rival on his next start in the G2 July Stakes over 1,200m at the same course. That was a fine effort and marked him down as a performer worthy of this grade, but the way he saw out his race up the hill on the July Course suggested he might be happier on a stiffer track rather than this downhill 1,200m.
Hugo Palmer has booked Ryan Moore to ride THE WACO KID, who won well at Newbury over 1,200m last time out. That form has yet to be tested but he put over two lengths between himself and his rivals at the line and is another in here with considerable potential.
SELECTIONS: 7. THE STRIKIN VIKING, 1. APARAJEO, 9. TROPICAL STORM, 3. BILLBOARD STAR & 8. THE WACO KID
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-2: Multiple – 7. THE STRIKIN VIKING & 1. APARAJEO
S3-3: Multiple – 1. JAN BRUEGHEL & 4. MEYDAAN
S3-3 Gordon Stakes
The G3 Gordon Stakes over 2,403m looks to be a hotly contested this year, with JAN BRUEGHEL the one to beat.
Unbeaten in two starts, the son of GALILEO has looked very impressive having won on debut in a maiden at the Curragh over 2,000m by eight lengths and backing up that success in the G3 International Stakes over 2,000m in June. Despite lining up here off a higher weight, Aidan O’Brien’s colt looks to have plenty of talent and could improve even further for that run.
Another interesting contender is MEYDAAN for Simon and Ed Crisford. The Newmarket-based handlers have been in fine form of late and that could continue with this talented colt who hasn’t appeared on track since his fourth in the G2 Queen’s Vase over 2,831m at Royal Ascot in June. Over what can be quite a tricky distance, the son of FRANKEL looked comfortable throughout and the step back down in trip here might do the trick. We saw this the last time he appeared at Goodwood in May, where he won the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes over 2,240m in dramatic fashion, seeing off a late charge from his main challenger SPACE LEGEND. Any continuation of that form on similar ground will see him in with a solid chance of beating the favourite.
BELLUM JUSTUM looks to have come on plenty in his 3YO campaign, with his best performances coming on a firm surface.
Because of the slightly softer ground at Epsom, you can forgive his run in the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,405m where he finished seventh, six lengths behind SAYEDATY SADATY. Last time out, though, he bounced back well to place in the G3 Hampton Court Stakes over 1,993m at Royal Ascot with Oisin Murphy in the saddle. With the three-time champion jockey booked to ride again, we could see the son of SEA THE STARS continue that upward curve of form. The ground will need to stay dry to get the best out of him, though.
This will be SAYEDATY SADATY’s first run for David Simcock having been moved away from Andrew Balding’s yard last week. The son of ANODIN outran his odds in the G1 Derby Stakes at Epsom over 2,405m where he came fifth under Tom Marquand in what was his first appearance in G1 company. He’s had ample time to recover from that and will be coming here fresh.
SELECTIONS: 1. JAN BRUEGHEL, 4. MEYDAAN, 3. BELLUM JUSTUM & 5. SAYEDATY SADATY
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-3: Multiple – 1. JAN BRUEGHEL & 4. MEYDAAN
S3-4: Multiple – 8. OPERA SINGER & 2. EMILY UPJOHN
S3-4 Nassau Stakes
This 1,984m showpiece brings together the very best of the middle-distance fillies and mares, and John Gosden and Aidan O’Brien can boast nine successes between them.
O’Brien could have the edge as the generous weight-for-age allowance will make it tough for EMILY UPJOHN to beat OPERA SINGER. EMILY UPJOHN is the proven stayer, whereas OPERA SINGER is both taking on her elders and tackling 2,000m for the first time.
OPERA SINGER was awesome in the G1 Prix Marcel Boussac over 1,600m at ParisLongchamp last October, but both Ryan Moore and O’Brien have been adamant she will relish being able to step up in trip. A creditable comeback third in the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas put OPERA SINGER spot on for what was a red-hot G1 Coronation Stakes over 1,594m at Royal Ascot, in which she found one too good in the smart PORTA FORTUNA, who has since won a second G1 at Newmarket.
EMILY UPJOHN, so unlucky when beaten narrowly in the Oaks over 2,400m as a 3YO, returned to Epsom last year and won the G1 Coronation Cup over 2,400m, but she hasn’t won in five races since. Gosden blamed the testing ground for her defeat in the G1 Pretty Polly Stakes over 2,000m at the Curragh last time. Some observers thought it was more pilot error, though, as the jockey went for home plenty soon enough in the straight. When she started to idle, EMILY UPJOHN’s stride shortened and she was caught by BLUESTOCKING, who has since finished second in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot. The fact is she was disappointing in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic over 2,410m and also when defending her Coronation Cup at Epsom.
Should the forecast thunderstorms materialise, French challenger SPARKLING PLENTY would come into the equation. She likes to come from off the pace and produced an explosive finishing kick to spring a surprise in the G1 Prix de Diane over 2,100m at Chantilly.
We should not ignore G1 1000 Guineas heroine ELMALKA, who was fourth in the G1 Coronation Stakes over 1,594m at Royal Ascot and will improve for going up in trip.
SEE THE FIRE, third in last year’s G1 Fillies Mile, has been disappointing this season but ran well in the G1 Eclipse Stakes over 1,990m at Sandown.
SELECTIONS: 8. OPERA SINGER, 2. EMILY UPJOHN, 10. SPARKLING PLENTY, 7. ELMALKA & 9. SEE THE FIRE
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-4: Multiple – 8. OPERA SINGER & 2. EMILY UPJOHN
S3-5: Multiple – 1. EL BURHAN & 8. JET PACKER
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S3-4:
Banker – 8. OPERA SINGER
Selections – 2. EMILY UPJOHN, 10. SPARKLING PLENTY, 7. ELMALKA & 9. SEE THE FIRE
S3-5:
Banker – 1. EL BURHAN
Selections – 8. JET PACKER, 2. MR CHAPLIN, 5. BRIGHTON BOY & 3. FRED ON FIRE
S3-5 2yo Handicap
Recent runnings of this 1,408m nursery for 2YOs show it is hard to win form a high draw – there has only been one winner in the last 10 years drawn in a double-figure stall – and also tricky from a stall next to the inside rail. But top weight EL BURHAN has got almost the perfect starting point in stall 4, a factor which makes him very interesting given his obvious form chance. The George Boughey-trained colt has built on a promising debut fourth at Newmarket over 1,200m in May to win both his subsequent races over 1,403m at Yarmouth later in May and 1,487m at Beverley earlier this month. Jim Crowley’s mount was particularly impressive in the latter race, stretching well clear. He clearly is strong on stamina and there looks a good chance that he may be able to compete in a higher grade as his career progresses.
JET PACKER represents a stable which has won this race twice in the last 10 years. He finished second to useful rival in KING OF BEARS at Newbury over 1,200m earlier this month and then four days later ran on when his chance had gone to claim fourth in a 1,403m maiden at Epsom. He steps into handicaps for the first time and also has a perfect draw in stall 5.
MR CHAPLIN’s decisive victory from DEFENSE MISSILE in a Newbury maiden over 1,200m in May prompted a shot at the G2 Coventry Stakes over 1,200m at Royal Ascot. He was unable to get competitive there and finished unplaced, but he should find this lesser grade and longer distance more suitable.
The form of BRIGHTON BOY looks solid, particularly his close second to CABURN at Salisbury over 1,200m last month with that rival subsequently landing a valuable prize at Newbury. Oisin Murphy’s mount went on to comfortably win a 1,215m novice at Chester this month. He looks ideal for the race but the negative is that he must overcome a tricky wide draw.
The booking of Ryan Moore for the Hugo Palmer-trained FRED ON FIRE is interesting. Following his debut victory on the all-weather at Newcastle over 1,200m last month, there was no disgrace in failing to give weight to two useful-looking opponents in a novice over 1,200m at Ayr this month.
SELECTIONS: 1. EL BURHAN, 8. JET PACKER, 2. MR CHAPLIN, 5. BRIGHTON BOY & 3. FRED ON FIRE
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-5: Multiple – 1. EL BURHAN & 8. JET PACKER
S3-6: Multiple – 6. KENDALL ROY & 7. GRANDLAD
S3-6 3yo 76-95 Handicap
KENDALL ROY is a sprinter progressing at a considerable rate of knots and he appears to hold solid claims of enhancing his profile in this 3YO Handicap over 1,000m at Goodwood. The TWILIGHT SON gelding has won four out of his seven starts this year. Any rain that falls will not inconvenience him, while his chances are further enhanced with a high draw in gate 15. Trainer Kate McGivern has managed to secure the services of Ryan Moore, who will be taking his first ride for her stable, which indicates to a big run being on the cards.
GRANDLAD found the step up in grade in a 1,000m Listed contest beyond him at York last time out and he should prove much more effective back in a handicap. The James Horton-trained son of ACCLAMATION is unbeaten at Goodwood after securing two victories in 1,000m handicaps at the early this season. At a course where it pays to be prominent in sprints, his style of racing close to the pace can see him be involved at the finish.
SHAGRAAN is yet to win this season, but his form in defeat suggests that he is likely to be on the premises come the end of the race. Although returning a beaten favourite at Windsor last time out, he appeared to fail to see out the 1,211m on that occasion, as he did over the 1,200m trip at Newmarket earlier in the year. Before his latest reversal he ran in defeat when finishing a close-up fifth in a 1,000m handicap at Royal Ascot which suggests a drop back down in trip will play to his strengths.
NOEL FOX looks to be a filly on an upward trajectory after making it two wins from four starts. While it remains to be seen how effective she is on a soft surface should rain reach the track, she remains of considerable interest racing off a light weight.
MC LOVEN is more exposed than a lot of his rivals. Although not ideally drawn in gate 1, his chances can be upgraded with the booking of jockey Oisin Murphy.
SELECTIONS: 6. KENDALL ROY, 7. GRANDLAD, 4. SHAGRAAN, 14. NOEL FOX & 13. MC LOVEN
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-6: Multiple – 6. KENDALL ROY & 7. GRANDLAD
S3-7: Multiple – 11. STELLENBOSCH & 5. DREAMY
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S3-6: Multiple – 6. KENDALL ROY, 7. GRANDLAD & 4. SHAGRAAN
S3-7: Multiple – 11. STELLENBOSCH, 5. DREAMY & 4. BOUVIER
S3-8: Multiple – 8. JUNGLE MAC, 9. TREASURE TIME & 1. QIRAT
S3-7 2yo Fillies Maiden
There isn’t much form to go on in this 1,408m maiden for 2YO fillies, with only four of the 13 runners having racecourse experience.
STELLENBOSCH has had two starts to date and brings the highest level of form into this contest. Richard Hannon’s daughter of WOOTTON BASSETT showed plenty of speed on debut over 1,200m at Newbury when leading the field through the early to middle sections of that race. Once headed she rallied well under pressure, suggesting that more of a trip would benefit her. Upped in distance to 1,400m at Newmarket July Course last time, she again travelled well and kept on for third at the finish. The experience of those two races will not be lost on her and she could put it to good use against many rivals that are making their debuts here. This largely downhill, sharp 1,408m should also suit her.
Aidan O’Brien last won this race in 2016 with the smart RHODODENDRON and introduces DREAMY here. While debutants from the O’Brien yard can sometimes need their first run, this filly by AMERICAN PHAROAH is likely to know her job as the sole Ballydoyle representative and the mount of Ryan Moore. She is likely to need further in time but stands out on pedigree in this race and could be up to making a winning debut.
BOUVIER is another with previous experience after finishing a good third on debut at Doncaster over 1,405m. She stuck to her task well in the closing stages to be beaten just over a length and should come on for that run. The form of the race was given a boost with the fourth placed horse coming out and winning since, and with natural improvement BOUVIER should be involved in the finish.
A relatively expensive buy at the breeze ups, ARABIAN LEOPARD makes her debut here for the David Simcock yard. Her dam had plenty of form over 1,200m so she should have the speed for this test on debut and looks one of the more likely debutants.
Completing the selections is Paul & Oliver Cole’s runner BELA SONATA. The Cole team have a good record with their runners at Goodwood, and this daughter of sprinter SERGEI PROKOFIEV could be up to putting up a bold show on debut.
SELECTIONS: 11. STELLENBOSCH, 5. DREAMY, 4. BOUVIER, 2. ARABIAN LEOPARD & 3. BELA SONATA
7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-7: Multiple – 11. STELLENBOSCH & 5. DREAMY
S3-8: Multiple – 8. JUNGLE MAC & 9. TREASURE TIME
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S3-7:
Banker – 11. STELLENBOSCH
Selections – 5. DREAMY, 4. BOUVIER, 2. ARABIAN LEOPARD & 3. BELA SONATA
S3-8:
Banker – 8. JUNGLE MAC
Selections – 9. TREASURE TIME, 1. QIRAT, 5. WESTRIDGE & 6. EBT’S GUARD
S3-8 HKJC World Pool Handicap
The draw is likely to be crucial in the HKJC World Pool Handicap over 1,600m and JUNGLE MAC has landed a favourable stall in box two. He has been incredibly consistent this season and he enjoyed the step up to 1,600m when successful at Newmarket July Course last start. His head second to TREASURE TIME over 1,400m at Newmarket July Course in June was another particularly good run and his helpful draw just gives him the edge over his old rival.
TREASURE TIME has been progressive since switching from novice races into handicaps. He didn’t get any luck around the tight turns of Chester over 1,400m on his first run in this sphere, but he showed just what he could do when getting the better of JUNGLE MAC over 1,400m at Newmarket July Course. The step up to 1,600m was always likely to suit William Haggas’ runner. Although he was beaten on his first try at the distance, it was an excellent effort to go down by a neck to well-bred Godolphin improver FIRST CONQUEST. A rise in the weights shouldn’t halt his progress.
QIRAT made a winning return to action at this course over 1,400m in May. He backed it up with a solid effort upped to 1,600m for the first time when sixth in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot. His below-par effort when only fifth over 1,600m at Newmarket July Course was probably down to an aggressive ride. He’ll need a bit of luck from stall 14 but he has the ability to run a big race if things fall kindly for him.
WESTRIDGE appreciated the step up to 1,628m for the first time when getting off the mark at the third attempt in a Windsor novice race. He got the better of useful stablemate ROI DE FRANCE – also trained by John and Thady Gosden – despite missing the break a touch. There’s every chance he could end up being better than this grade and he does looked to have started off in handicaps nicely treated.
EBT’S GUARD, who has only been out of the first three twice in recent eight runs, has bagged a decent draw in stall 3. His form over 1,600m has been particularly good and he tried to come from further back than ideal when third over that distance at Ascot last month.
SELECTIONS: 8. JUNGLE MAC, 9. TREASURE TIME, 1. QIRAT, 5. WESTRIDGE & 6. EBT’S GUARD
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