Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

 

 

Expert Column for Yorkshire Oaks Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)

 

S2-1     Lowther Stakes

 

The Lowther Stakes is a G2 event for 2YO fillies over 1,200m and features a host of promising juveniles.

 

HEAVENS GATE is a CHURCHILL filly who has progressed with racing this season. Aidan O’Brien’s charge impressively got off the mark in May over 1,200m before subsequently placing third in G3 and G2 company at Royal Ascot and Newmarket’s July Course respectively. She got back to winning ways in a valuable Naas 1,186m event earlier this month, and the way the master of Ballydoyle improves his fillies suggests she’s ready for a career best.

 

LEOVANNI arrived at Royal Ascot with a big reputation as an expensive breeze-up purchase who’d scored nicely on debut over 1,007m at Nottingham. Somehow, she was allowed to go off at a big price, but still powered clear to win the G2 Queen Mary Stakes over 1,000m under James Doyle. Karl Burke’s filly’s stamina for this 1,200m isn’t assured, but she’s more than talented enough to make the frame.

 

A filly slightly more under the radar is CELANDINE. Ed Walker’s daughter of KINGMAN is twice a winner over 1,200m, including a Newmarket Listed race, and has had solid form since. Both her third to future G1 fourth ARABIE over 1,200m at Chantilly and her fourth to smart juvenile BIG MOJO at Goodwood over the sharp 1,000m read well, and she can hit the places.

 

MISS LAMAI also represents LEOVANNI’s Royal Ascot form and she should be respected. Karl Burke’s filly had no cover that day and did very well to grab fourth as her stablemate winner was away and gone, and she herself has since shown smart form when winning a competitive Listed race at Naas over 1,000m. This 1,200m will test her stamina, but if she gets a good tow into the race, she should go well.

 

TIME FOR SANDALS is a lightly raced filly compared to her rivals but looks talented based on her two starts. Harry Eustace’s daughter of SANDS OF MALI knuckled down to win on debut at Kempton over 1,200m on the polytrack, the second having come out since and won a smart Goodwood maiden in July. Next time in Newbury’s Super Sprint over 1,031m, TIME FOR SANDALS belied a difficult draw to finish a fine third and looks capable of running into the places here.

 

SELECTIONS: 4. HEAVENS GATE, 1. LEOVANNI, 3. CELANDINE, 5. MISS LAMAI & 8. TIME FOR SANDALS

 

1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-1: Multiple – 4. HEAVENS GATE & 1. LEOVANNI
S2-2: Multiple – 1. ARIZONA BLAZE & 4. AN OUTLAW'S GRACE

 

S2-2     2yo Allowance

 

This is a 1,200m conditions race restricted to horses bought as yearlings from one thoroughbred sale last year. 

 

It tends to be dominated by runners at the head of the betting and the stand-out candidates are led by ARIZONA BLAZE. The colt, trained in Ireland by Adrian Murray, has to carry a penalty for his victory in the G3 Marble Hill Stakes over 1,200m at the Curragh in May, but he should appreciate this easier task. His most recent runs have been third places in the G2 Norfolk Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot and the G2 Railway Stakes over 1,200m at the Curragh, plus the G1 Phoenix Stakes over 1,200m, also at the Curragh, earlier this month. 

 

AN OUTLAW’S GRACE represents trainer Richard Hannon, who has won this race five times in the last eight years, and Ryan Moore takes the ride. He has twice been beaten in G2 races since making a winning debut in a Salisbury over 1,200m maiden in June but was not disgraced in either contest. In the first, AN OUTLAW’S GRACE was not beaten far by useful opponents in the G2 Prix Robert Papin over 1,200m at Chantilly. He then ran much better than his finishing position of fifth to AOMORI CITY in the G2 HKJC World Pool Vintage Stakes over 1,400m suggests at Glorious Goodwood last month. The son of DANDY MAN found the last 200m a step too far there, fading after being in a challenging position.

 

Filly MAW LAM, a maiden winner at Thirsk over 1,000m on debut in May, has made life difficult for herself with a series of slow starts but she possesses plenty of ability as she showed when third to LEOVANNI in the G2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot. She occupied the same position in a very close finish to a 1,000m Listed race at Deauville earlier this month.

 

MIDNIGHT CITY looks likely to step up on his promising debut when fifth in a maiden over 1,200m at Newmarket’s July Course earlier this month. He has an eye-catching entry in a G1 race later this year. 

 

TERRITORIAL KNIGHT has improved in each of his three starts. He goes well on fast ground and was an impressive winner of a Pontefract novice event over 1,200m last month. 

 

SELECTIONS: 1. ARIZONA BLAZE, 4. AN OUTLAW'S GRACE, 20. MAW LAM, 13. MIDNIGHT CITY & 16. TERRITORIAL KNIGHT

 

2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-2: Multiple – 1. ARIZONA BLAZE & 4. AN OUTLAW'S GRACE
S2-3: Multiple – 4. ELNAJMM & 9. NEW IMAGE

 

S2-3     3yo+ Handicap

 

ELNAJMM looks to be heading for better grades and he should take this 1,582m handicap on his way to Group contests.
William Haggas’ runner is unbeaten in two handicap starts this season. He easily won his first start of the season over 1,605m on Newcastle’s polytrack. The way he followed up when overcoming traffic problems to land a competitive 1,600m Ascot contest underlined his potential.

 

NEW IMAGE missed the whole of last year, but he has been hugely consistent since joining Yorkshire trainer David O’Meara. In eight races, he’s won four times and only been out of the first three on one occasion. He had no problem with the step up to 1,594m for the first time at Ascot. After travelling strongly, he had to wait for a gap in the straight, but when it appeared, he quickened up nicely to hit the front on the line. He’s unexposed over this distance and looks sure to run his race.

 

Stablemate BLUE FOR YOU won this race two years ago. He wasn’t helped by a high draw when down the field 12 months ago, but his overall record at York is good. In eight runs over this course and distance, he has won three times and been runner-up twice. The most recent of those victories came in July when he beat NORTHERN EXPRESS. The form of that race could not have worked out much better with the runner-up landing a hot Ascot handicap on his next start. These big-field handicaps suit him well.

 

HOLLOWAY BOY hasn’t won since making a successful debut in the Listed Chesham Stakes over 1,400m at Royal Ascot two years ago but he has spent most of his career in Group races. He’s rediscovered his form since dropping in grade to handicaps this season. After finishing fifth in the competitive Royal Hunt Cup over 1,600m at Royal Ascot, he chased home useful CICERO’S GIFT over 1,600m at Sandown. His third in Goodwood’s Golden Mile over 1,600m was another solid effort and he should run another good race.

 

METAL MERCHANT was an excellent fourth behind NORTHERN EXPRESS in a hot Ascot handicap last month, especially as the slowly-run 1400m was too sharp for him. The return to 1,600m will suit Jack Channon’s runner.

 

SELECTIONS: 4. ELNAJMM, 9. NEW IMAGE, 5. BLUE FOR YOU, 2. HOLLOWAY BOY & 7. METAL MERCHANT

 

3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-3: Multiple – 4. ELNAJMM & 9. NEW IMAGE
S2-4: Multiple – 5. CONTENT & 3. QUEEN OF THE PRIDE

 

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-3:   
Banker – 4. ELNAJMM
Selections – 9. NEW IMAGE, 5. BLUE FOR YOU, 2. HOLLOWAY BOY & 7. METAL MERCHANT
S2-4:   
Banker – 5. CONTENT
Selections – 3. QUEEN OF THE PRIDE, 8. YOU GOT TO ME, 1. EMILY UPJOHN & 2. MISTRAL STAR

 

S2-4     Yorkshire Oaks

 

Aidan O’Brien has won three of the last four runnings of the G1 Yorkshire Oaks over 2,381m.

 

CONTENT is his main representative here, arriving on the back of finishing second in the G1 Irish Oaks over 2,400m at the Curragh. Although she has failed to register a win in four starts in G1 company this season, that first run over 2,400m looked to bring out the best in her. She looked slightly unlucky not to win too, with Ryan Moore having to wait longer than he wanted before making his challenge and she stayed on powerfully in the final 100m to lose out by less than a length to YOU GOT TO ME. On only her second go at this trip, CONTENT may be up to turning that form around.

 

YOU GOT TO ME won the Listed Lingfield Oaks Trial Stakes over 2,321m back in May before finishing fourth in both the G1 Oaks and G2 Ribblesdale Stakes. Her win in the Irish Oaks was her first in G1 company and signalled that she is still progressing. She was given an excellent ride by Hector Crouch to win at the Curragh, and she may need to better that performance to win this stronger contest.

 

John & Thady Gosden saddle two here, QUEEN OF THE PRIDE and EMILY UPJOHN. QUEEN OF THE PRIDE has managed two Group wins in succession in her past two starts, the first being the G3 Lester Piggott Fillies’ Stakes over 2,359m at Haydock. More recently, she won the G2 Lancashire Oaks over 2,359m at the same track, where she breezed to victory by three lengths. This will be her debut in G1 company, but judging by the ease of her last win, she looks to be improving rapidly and is well worth her place at this level.

 

EMILY UPJOHN has been largely a disappointment this season but has shown flashes of form. She was way off the pace last time out in the G1 Nassau Stakes over 1,979m at Goodwood and never looked a real contender. However, before that she did finish a close second to BLUESTOCKING in the G1 Pretty Polly Stakes over 2,000m at the Curragh in June, beating CONTENT into third. That sort of form would make her interesting, but she has a bit to prove after such a poor effort last time out.

 

MISTRAL STAR finished third behind QUEEN OF THE PRIDE at Haydock over 2,400m in June and improved on that when winning impressively in Listed company at Newmarket’s July Course over 2,400m last time. More will be needed now but she looks a place contender.

 

SELECTIONS: 5. CONTENT, 3. QUEEN OF THE PRIDE, 8. YOU GOT TO ME, 1. EMILY UPJOHN & 2. MISTRAL STAR

 

4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-4: Multiple – 5. CONTENT & 3. QUEEN OF THE PRIDE
S2-5: Multiple – 9. NAKHEEL & 11. SEA JUST IN TIME

 

S2-5     Galtres Stakes

 

William Haggas is looking for his fourth success in this 2,400m Listed race for fillies and mares, and he has another strong favourite here in the well-bred SEA JUST IN TIME. Unraced at two, SEA JUST IN TIME looked a potential star when breaking her maiden over 2,000m at Newmarket, and she got back on track at Kempton over 2,399m two weeks ago. However, it was a success which was more workmanlike than impressive, and she will need to step up again tackling this more proven opposition.

 

NAKHEEL is also relatively inexperienced, but she showed a good attitude when asked to dig deep to win her maiden at Ascot over 1,993m in May. She has since twice finished in the frame in Listed races, at Goodwood over 1,979m and Newmarket’s July Course over 2,400m, and it was encouraging how each time she finished her race off strongly. The form of both those races has stood up well, particularly the one at Goodwood, where NAKHEEL was a length and a half third to subsequent Ribblesdale Stakes runner-up LAVA STREAM.

 

Only once in the last 10 years have the 4YO horses beaten the 3YOs in this race, but there are several 4YOs with solid claims, none more so than SCENIC who is a guaranteed stayer. SCENIC has been placed in two Listed races, defying huge odds at York over 2,100m last season, and most recently at Deauville over 3,000m in July she was only beaten a neck by GAYA SENORA, who was second in the G2 Prix Kergorlay next time.

 

Rae Guest is also hopeful that already being a five-time winner will be a big asset for DIVINA GRACE. She is another filly who relishes fast ground and stays well. She won three races in her second season, from 2,000m to 2,400m, and this year she has maintained the improvement. Having run well in the Listed races at Pontefract and Newmarket’s July Course, DIVINA GRACE then landed a gamble at Newmarket’s July Course over 2,400m.

 

Karl Burke stressed that KARMOLOGY would improve as she got older after she had won her first two races over 1,600m at Ripon and Newcastle last autumn. KARMOLOGY has justified that prediction this year, winning a handicap over this course over 2,051m and then surpassing that achievement when runner-up in a Listed race over 2,051m back here a fortnight later.

 

SELECTIONS: 9. NAKHEEL, 11. SEA JUST IN TIME, 7. SCENIC, 1. DIVINA GRACE & 5. KARMOLOGY

 

5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 9. NAKHEEL & 11. SEA JUST IN TIME
S2-6: Multiple – 1. AGE OF GOLD & 2. SPELL MASTER

 

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-5:   
Banker – 9. NAKHEEL
Selections – 11. SEA JUST IN TIME, 7. SCENIC, 1. DIVINA GRACE & 5. KARMOLOGY
S2-6:   
Banker – 1. AGE OF GOLD
Selections – 2. SPELL MASTER, 4. ORIGINAL OUTLAW, 13. ART MARKET & 14. QASEEM

 

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 9. NAKHEEL, 11. SEA JUST IN TIME & 7. SCENIC
S2-6: Multiple – 1. AGE OF GOLD, 2. SPELL MASTER & 4. ORIGINAL OUTLAW
S2-7: Multiple – 6. ARISAIG, 1. NINE TENTHS & 7. RAKNAH

 

S2-6     2yo Handicap

 

This 1,400m nursery handicap looks typically competitive, with most of these 2YOs stepping into handicap company for the first time and hoping to prove better than their initial ratings.

 

AGE OF GOLD was a comfortable winner on debut at Yarmouth over 1,203m. The Charlie Appleby-trained runner was then stepped up into the Listed Chesham Stakes over 1,400m at Royal Ascot where ran well below his best. He came under pressure early and faded. Much better was clearly expected, as he was sent off a strong second favourite in the betting. He’s since been gelded and that may help him recover his form.

 

Trainer Andrew Balding has won two of the last four renewals of this race and he runs SPELL MASTER. He’s been steadily progressive in three starts to date, beginning with a sixth on debut at Newbury over 1,200m before looking to enjoy the step up to 1,403m when second at Epsom next time out. Most recently he dead-heated at Goodwood over 1,400m, when looking like he would win more comfortably. York’s flat track should suit him, and he looks set to go well.

 

ORIGINAL OUTLAW ran several good races in novice and maiden company, going close to getting off the mark in a 1,200m maiden at Kempton where he was just run down at the finish by a smart rival. It looked as though he would make amends on his handicap debut at Goodwood over 1,400m last time, as he kicked two lengths clear 200m from home but was caught on the line by a fast-finishing stablemate. If he’s given a slightly more patient ride here, he should be involved in the finish.

 

ART MARKET already has two runs in handicaps to his name and both have resulted in wins. After three runs in maiden and novice company, he won on handicap debut at Ascot over 1,200m, staying on well to lead by a neck at the line. Stepped up to 1,403m last time out at Yarmouth, he again did his best work in the closing stages, finishing strongly to win by half-a-length. Due to the narrow margins of those victories, he hasn’t gone up much in the handicap and should be competitive again with more to come over this trip.

 

QASEEM has also won a handicap already, when staying on to win in the final strides at Haydock over 1,200m earlier this month. Judging by that effort this new trip should suit him well.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. AGE OF GOLD, 2. SPELL MASTER, 4. ORIGINAL OUTLAW, 13. ART MARKET & 14. QASEEM

 

6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-6: Multiple – 1. AGE OF GOLD & 2. SPELL MASTER
S2-7: Multiple – 6. ARISAIG & 1. NINE TENTHS

 

S2-7     3yo+ Fillies & Mares Handicap

 

ARISAIG has held her form well all season and she looks well placed to secure a third victory of the year in this 3yo+ Fillies & Mares Handicap over 1,400m. The Charlie Johnston-trained 3YO gained reward for some commendable efforts when being delivered with a perfectly timed run under Jamie Spencer to land a 1,600m handicap at Goodwood last time out. Although only winning by a short distance last time out, the HARRY ANGEL filly was better value than her margin of victory suggests and the small rise in the ratings she received for that victory should not prevent further progression under Spencer dropped back in trip.

 

NINE TENTHS has not been sighted since finishing sixth in a 1,413m handicap at Newcastle back in March, but she looks capable of a bold bid at the head of the weights having previously run out the winner of the Listed Lady Wulfruna Stakes over 1,433m at Wolverhampton. While the daughter of KODIAC is yet to translate her smart all-weather form to the turf, her one victory achieved on grass in a 1,200m novice at Windsor was secured on quick ground, which she is likely to encounter here. Trainer William Haggas has three runners in the race, but interestingly stable jockey Tom Marquand has elected to partner NINE TENTHS which should give an indication of her chances.

 

RAKNAH drops back in grade having secured a front running success in the Listed Corrib Fillies’ Stakes over 1,400m at Galway on her last start. It is notable that connections have opted to revert her back to handicap company instead of trying their hand at a higher level. Given her prominent style of racing, at a track which lends itself to those that run close to the pace, she could prove tough to pass out in front. 

 

QUEEN OF MOUGINS is yet to add to her debut victory in a 1,200m novice at Newbury a year ago, however judging by her most recent effort she looks well worth a step up in trip. The Ralph Beckett-trained daughter of TEN SOVEREIGNS appeared to be in need of further when finishing third in a 1,200m handicap at Newmarket’s July Course on her last start and the easy 1,400m here could be tailor made for her. 

 

ELIM has run well this year without getting her head in front in three starts over 1,600m. Having travelled strongly in each of her races her stamina has given way on each occasion which suggests a fast run 1,400m will be much more to her liking.

 

SELECTIONS: 6. ARISAIG, 1. NINE TENTHS, 7. RAKNAH, 8. QUEEN OF MOUGINS & 3. ELIM

 

 

 

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