 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
|---|---|
| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Nunthorpe Stakes Day (S3) (Bill Esdaile)
S3-1 3yo+ Handicap
WAFEI looks poised to resume his progression and mount a bold bid from the bottom of the weights in this 2,391m handicap. The son of AMERICAN PHAROAH suffered a surprise defeat on his return to action in a 2,000m maiden at Windsor, but he has appeared to turn a corner following a gelding operation. After bolting up in a 1,800m maiden at Hamilton, the William Haggas-trained 3YO travelled better when finishing a close second in a 2,200m handicap at Goodwood. Although nudged up in the ratings for that effort, the switch to a more conventional track on his favoured fast ground will play to his strengths.
SHADOW DANCE showed his Royal Ascot run in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes over 2,400m to be all wrong when finishing an eye-catching second in a 2,400m handicap at Ripon last time. The son of ALMANZOR travelled into contention before becoming unbalanced late on but once gathered in by Jack Mitchell he hit the line strongly. He remains a horse with plenty of potential in races like this and the switch back to a left-handed track will no doubt help his chances.
MR MONACO finally opened his account for the year when powering clear of his rivals in a 2,000m handicap at Sandown last time out to suggest a step up in trip will bring about further improvement. With his only other win in a 1,400m novice at Leicester last year achieved on quick ground, conditions should be fine for the Ralph Beckett-trained 3YO who now seems to have come to himself following a gelding operation.
LIEBER POWER has proven to be a model of consistency since being stepped back up after finishing either first or second in his last four starts. Unlike most of his rivals, the CRACKSMAN gelding crucially has a course and distance victory to his name after obliging in a soft ground 2,400m handicap at the track last month. Although finishing second in a 2,300m handicap on his last start at Windsor, his performance that day suggests he still has scope for further progression.
EUCHEN GLEN might now be 11YO, but he is holding his form well as demonstrated with his staying on fourth in a 2,800m handicap at Goodwood last time out. The Jim Goldie-trained gelding has won two of his previous 11 starts at York, and the drop back in trip will not be an inconvenience to the son of AUTHORIZED, who won the G3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes over 2,400m at the track in 2020.
SELECTIONS: 13. WAFEI, 3. SHADOW DANCE, 9. MR MONACO, 6. LIEBER POWER & 4. EUCHEN GLEN
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-1: Multiple – 13. WAFEI & 3. SHADOW DANCE
S3-2: Multiple – 7. VAUBAN & 4. POINT LONSDALE
S3-2 Lonsdale Cup
The G2 Lonsdale Cup is a long distance contest run over 3,271m and the obvious starting point is VAUBAN for Willie Mullins and William Buick. The gelded son of GALIWAY has performed well in Group company this season, with a decent second at York in the G2 Yorkshire Cup over 2,800m on his seasonal reappearance back in May. He then stepped up in trip for the G1 Ascot Gold Cup over 4,000m where he stayed on well to come fourth, followed by a respectable third in the G2 Curragh Cup over 2,800m last time out. He’s a proven stayer on the Flat and should go well here.
POINT LONSDALE has been fairly impressive of late over shorter distances but will have to prove he can stay this trip.
On paper, Aidan O’Brien’s charge looks the best on ratings and his impressive third in the G1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud over 2,400m backs that up. He looked that day like he could appreciate a slightly longer trip, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the extra distance.
ALSAKIB is one at a larger price who has good form at York and seems to be improving plenty of late over longer trips.
Last time out at this track, the KINGMAN colt looked smart in the G3 John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes over 2,800m when grinding out a tough finish to come from the back of the field and overtake the leaders. As shown that day, this is a horse with an engine and he looks to have a live chance of sneaking into the places.
GREGORY is one of two 4YOs lining up here and he seems to be on a bit of a comeback trail following a fine 3YO campaign. The Gosden yard have a strong record in this race, thanks mainly to the exploits of three-time winner STRADIVARIUS, and this son of GOLDEN HORN commands respect after a decent third in the G1 Goodwood Cup over 3,200m last time out.
QUICKTHORN won this race back in 2022 and he is the only course and distance winner in the field. He disappointed when sixth 12 months ago, but you can expect Tom Marquand to adopt his familiar front-running tactics and he is one you can never rule out.
SELECTIONS: 7. VAUBAN, 4. POINT LONSDALE, 2. ALSAKIB, 3. GREGORY & 5. QUICKTHORN
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-2: Multiple – 7. VAUBAN & 4. POINT LONSDALE
S3-3: Multiple – 5. CAMILLE PISSARRO & 2. BIG MOJO
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S3-2:
Banker – 7. VAUBAN
Selections – 4. POINT LONSDALE, 2. ALSAKIB, 3. GREGORY & 5. QUICKTHORN
S3-3:
Banker – 5. CAMILLE PISSARRO
Selections – 2. BIG MOJO, 8. SHADOW OF LIGHT, 1. ANDESITE & 10. THE STRIKIN VIKING
S3-3 Gimcrack Stakes
The Gimcrack Stakes is a G2 event for 2YOs over 1,200m with a host of fascinating contenders. It rarely pays to disregard Aidan O’Brien’s horses in races like these, and CAMILLE PISSARRO looks a very smart juvenile. A taking winner on debut at Navan over 1,200m in April, he ran admirably in a G3 next time which marked him out as a horse to follow. He was only beaten four-and-a-quarter lengths next time in the G2 Coventry Stakes, and his second to future G1 winner BABOUCHE on his most recent run over 1,300m reads very well. He looks the one to beat.
BIG MOJO is a very fast juvenile who’s progressing rapidly. He debuted in a low-key Beverley maiden in July over 1,000m where he was only able to finish second, but next time took a huge step forward. That run came at Goodwood 25 days later, where Michael Appleby’s colt showed bags of pace to land the G3 Molecomb Stakes over 1,000m. This 1,200m trip will probably stretch his stamina, but you wouldn’t want to put a ceiling on his development at this stage.
Another upwardly mobile contender is SHADOW OF LIGHT. Charlie Appleby’s colt is unbeaten in two starts, both over 1,200m. His debut came with a fine victory at Yarmouth in July, before stepping across to Newmarket’s July Course to beat nine rivals comprehensively. This is a marked rise in class but expect him to be talented enough to make the frame.
It’s been a while since we’ve seen ANDESITE, but he has a very promising profile. He caught the eye with a course and distance victory on debut back in May and was expected to run a big race in the aforementioned G2 Coventry Stakes, only to be a non-runner on the day. What Karl Burke’s runner lacks in experience, he surely will make up for in talent, and he can hit the frame.
THE STRIKIN VIKING is another horse with a course and distance debut win on his record. He impressed that day and didn’t disgrace himself next time with a fine half length loss in G2 company at the Curragh in June. Bought for big money after that effort, he changed stables to H A Al Jehani and was only narrowly defeated in another 1,200m G2 at Goodwood earlier this month. He looks to have plenty of pace and could be there at the finish.
SELECTIONS: 5. CAMILLE PISSARRO, 2. BIG MOJO, 8. SHADOW OF LIGHT, 1. ANDESITE & 10. THE STRIKIN VIKING
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-3: Multiple – 5. CAMILLE PISSARRO & 2. BIG MOJO
S3-4: Multiple – 9. ASFOORA & 7. BIG EVS
S3-4 Nunthorpe Stakes
The G1 Nunthorpe Stakes over 1,000m will play host to the latest clash between Australia’s ASFOORA and Britain’s BIG EVS.
It’s currently one win apiece, with ASFOORA triumphing in the G1 King Charles III Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot before coming up short to BIG EVS in the G2 King George Stakes over 1,000m at Goodwood. ASFOORA appeared to win her race at Ascot fair and square, but BIG EVS’ Goodwood win, which came in receipt of weight from the Aussie mare, was less convincing. While BIG EVS stalked the pace-setting LIVE IN THE DREAM up front, ASFOORA settled a little further back in the pack and was only denied by a short-head. Now receiving weight from her rival, and with the gaps likely to open sooner on York’s much wider track, ASFOORA will be hard to beat if in the same sort of form.
LIVE IN THE DREAM will likely be one of those setting the early fractions again, but he’s far more than just a pacemaker.
He won this race last year in blistering fashion and is expected to put up another bold bid, but it’s hard to see him being allowed to get loose on the lead like he did 12 months ago.
BELIEVING has been ultra-consistent all season and will be hard to keep out of the frame. She was a staying-on fourth behind ASFOORA, REGIONAL and BIG EVS in the aforementioned King Charles III Stakes before filling the same spot in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes over 1,200m just four days later. She then won the G2 Sapphire Stakes over 1,000m in good style at the Curragh before once again settling for a place behind BIG EVS and ASFOORA at Goodwood. She’s yet to show she has enough pace to beat the likes of BIG EVS or ASFOORA over 1,000m but is super consistent and has strong place chances once again.
REGIONAL, runner-up in the King Charles III Stakes, has to be respected too. Though he was unable to successfully concede weight to some progressive 3YO sprinters in the G3 Hackwood Stakes over 1,200m last time out, eventually finishing fourth, he’s a genuine G1 performer on his day.
SELECTIONS: 9. ASFOORA, 7. BIG EVS, 11. BELIEVING, 5. REGIONAL & 3. LIVE IN THE DREAM
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-4: Multiple – 9. ASFOORA & 7. BIG EVS
S3-5: Multiple – 11. POWER OF DESTINY & 16. CHORUS
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S3-4:
Banker – 9. ASFOORA
Selections – 7. BIG EVS, 11. BELIEVING, 5. REGIONAL & 3. LIVE IN THE DREAM
S3-5:
Banker – 11. POWER OF DESTINY
Selections – 16. CHORUS, 6. REACH, 5. AMBIENTE AMIGO & 3. AL ANOUD
S3-5 3yo+ Fillies & Mares 0-105 Handicap
The key to this competitive 2,071m race may be found in the finish of a similar 2,000m fillies handicap from Glorious Goodwood last month. That saw the 4YO AL ANOUD just hold off the year younger POWER OF DESTINY in a rousing finish. But whereas AL ANOUD was never out of the first two and fought on bravely after taking the lead at the 400m pole, in contrast POWER OF DESTINY had a nightmare run through. Trapped behind horses half-way up the straight, POWER OF DESTINY had to wait for gaps to appear, but when she did see daylight she flew home. Unfortunately, AL ANOUD had gained first run on POWER OF DESTINY, who reduced the deficit from three lengths to a head but was unable to get past. Both fillies should again be major players, but POWER OF DESTINY would have won at Goodwood with a clear run and she can gain revenge here.
We have yet to see the best of CHORUS, who scored a belated first success when outclassing second-rate opposition in a Novice over 2,000m at Windsor last month. CHORUS had earlier caught the eye when a close third to two highly-rated fillies in a much stronger novice at Ascot over 1,600m in May, and connections believe that she is only just starting to mature.
Undoubtedly, the most experienced of the 3YOs is AMBIENTE AMIGO, the mount of Rossa Ryan. She is equally effective over 2,000m as 2,400m, but the faster the early pace the better her chance. Four of AMBIENTE AMIGO’s five races this season have been in Listed company, and she held her own against higher-rated rivals when a fast-finishing third to MISTRAL STAR and SHINING JEWEL at Newmarket’s July Course in July over 2,400m. SHINING JEWEL only just missed a place in two G2 races at Meydan earlier in the year, so that Newmarket form looks useful.
REACH has been in the frame in all her four runs on this course, including winning this race 12 months ago. She is now 6YO but looks as good as ever this season and the fast ground is just what she wants. She has been placed in two handicaps over 2,000m here, being particularly unlucky to only be third after suffering interference early in the straight.
SELECTIONS: 11. POWER OF DESTINY, 16. CHORUS, 6. REACH, 5. AMBIENTE AMIGO & 3. AL ANOUD
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-5: Multiple – 11. POWER OF DESTINY & 16. CHORUS
S3-6: Multiple – 17. ULTRASOUL & 20. WHIRL
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S3-5: Multiple – 11. POWER OF DESTINY, 16. CHORUS & 6. REACH
S3-6: Multiple – 17. ULTRASOUL, 20. WHIRL & 12. REALIGN
S3-7: Multiple – 3. DOSMAN, 1. GOLDEN MIND & 10. PABORUS
S3-6 2yo Maiden
The 1,400m 2yo Maiden is one of the hottest races of its type. Four of the last five winners went on to land Group races, with NAVAL CROWN, successful in 2020, going on to top-level glory.
ULTRASOUL is bred to be smart. His dam, CHANNEL, won the G1 Prix de Diane and he is by the top stallion KINGMAN. The 1,200m distance was a bit on the sharp side for him on his debut at Yarmouth, but he still put in an excellent performance to chase home Godolphin juvenile SHADOW OF LIGHT. The winner followed up under a penalty at Newmarket and is a leading fancy for the G2 Gimcrack Stakes earlier on Friday’s card. The step up to 1,400m will suit ULTRASOUL.
WHIRL took a while to get the hang of what was required on her debut, but stayed on nicely into fourth behind the smart RED LETTER over 1,400m at the Curragh. It looked like she would improve a lot for the first run of her career, and she is predictably bred to be very useful.
REALIGN started his career off with a decent effort over 1,200m at Newmarket’s July Course. He was no match for SHADOW OF LIGHT – who had beaten ULTRASOUL on his previous start – but it was still a solid debut and the step up to 1,400m should help.
HIGH SEASON made an encouraging debut when runner-up behind smart prospect STANHOPE GARDENS in a Beverley maiden. He’s going to need much further next season but there was a lot to like about the way he finished off his race. There’s every chance he will be much sharper for his debut effort and he looks likely to develop into a smart performer.
ANGELO BUONARROTI faced a stiff task on his debut in the G2 Coventry Stakes over 1,200m at Royal Ascot. He finished in midfield but ran well to be beaten just three lengths in the Royal meeting’s top race for 2YOs, and the form of the race looks well up to scratch. ANGELO BUONARROTI should have improved a good amount for his first run and he’s since left trainer Raphael Freire to join Ralph Beckett.
SELECTIONS: 17. ULTRASOUL, 20. WHIRL, 12. REALIGN, 9. HIGH SEASON & 1. ANGELO BUONARROTI
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-6: Multiple – 17. ULTRASOUL & 20. WHIRL
S3-7: Multiple – 3. DOSMAN & 1. GOLDEN MIND
S3-7 3yo 0-105 Handicap
A low draw has been a big advantage in this competitive 1,590m handicap, with nine of the last 10 winners emerging from single-figure starting stalls. That is a positive for DOSMAN in stall two who is very interesting on his handicap debut.
The Roger Varian-trained colt got off the mark in a novice contest at Kempton over 1,400m in June. He was unable to defy a penalty when third in a similar race at Newmarket’s July Course over 1,600m in the same month but that form looks very solid. The impressive winner has won twice since. DOSMAN’S run can also be marked up because he had to race away from the main action in the middle of the track.
Just outside him in stall three is GOLDEN MIND. He has yet to run this season but he mixed in top 2YO company last year, finishing third in the Listed Chesham Stakes over 1,400m at Royal Ascot and fourth to the talented HAATEM in the G2 Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood over 1,400m. He is potentially a class above his rivals and interestingly holds an entry for a G2 race later this season.
Edward Bethell earmarked PABORUS as a horse to follow before the season started and it has been easy to see what excited the trainer. He has recorded clear-cut victories at Redcar and Carlisle in May, looking like this slightly longer trip would be perfect for him. He also tackles his first handicap and looks to have plenty of scope to improve.
MOUNT TEIDE did well in the spring and early summer when his one win in his first four starts came in a 1,400m novice event at Chepstow at the end of May. After a short break he looked a much stronger proposition winning over 1,600m at Newmarket’s July Course earlier this month with ZAIN BLUE back in third.
CROWN ESTATE has stall 14 to overcome but he responded positively to having cheekpieces fitted for the first time when making all the running to win a 1,600m Salisbury handicap in June. He showed fighting spirit that day and should be in the shake-up if he can get a good position early in the race.
SELECTIONS: 3. DOSMAN, 1. GOLDEN MIND, 10. PABORUS, 5. MOUNT TEIDE & 8. CROWN ESTATE
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
