 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
|---|---|
| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prix Gerald de Geoffre Day (S3) (Bill Esdaile)
S3-1 Class 2 Handicap
In this very open handicap over 2,400m, CIRCEO could finally get his head back in front. He won his last race in April 2023 when he lifted a 2,000m maiden and has since been very consistently placed in almost all his starts.
He has run against Group 1 performers BIG ROCK and HORIZON DORE but feels at home in handicap company. Sixth in his last attempt in a 2,500m handicap, this slightly less competitive field is an advantage, but he will have to overcome the outside draw.
In form German trainer Sascha Smrczek is bringing over ROBINIE for this handicap. The daughter of CRACKSMAN won a 2,400m handicap in April off a higher mark and has since shown that she is a filly with a mission. Fourth behind KANESHYA at Compiegne and fourth behind PRESAGE NOCTURNE at Deauville last month, she actually finished ahead of CIRCEO that time. Following two disappointing starts in the spring at ParisLongchamp, one could argue that she doesn’t like the racecourse, but theoretically she should finish in the first five, especially since she is drawn on the inside.
Deauville based trainer Stephane Wattel is slowly coming back to form after a disappointing spring. He is saddling the 5YO gelding STORM CITY who was consistently placed over 1,600m to 1,900m in 2023. He has only run three times this season and this is the first time that he will tackle the 2,400m distance. His freshness and first attempt over the longer trip could be the key to success.
I’M A BELIEVER comes from the Fabrice Chappet yard, which produced three major handicap winners in August. The 4YO gelding made his first attempt over this trip in July when he was the runner-up in a good claiming race in Compiegne. On his last start in a 2,000m handicap at Deauville, he finished fourth after not enjoying much luck in running.
PENTAOUR was the final runner and winner of Myriam Bollack-Badel. She retired after he won a 2,400m handicap at ParisLongchamp in June, which came only 14 days after he landed a 2,200m race in Dieppe. Following that last victory, he then joined the yard of Adelaide Budka. At ease over this classic trip, he likes soft ground. He did receive a penalty for his last win, but he still seems in great form and doesn’t seem to have reached his limit yet.
SELECTIONS: 9. ROBINIE, 12. I'M A BELIEVER, 8. CIRCEO, 16. STORM CITY & 11. PENTAOUR
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-1: Multiple – 9. ROBINIE & 12. I'M A BELIEVER
S3-2: Multiple – 8. HAPPY SAXON & 3. ROCK'N SWING
S3-2 Prix de Liancourt
The Mikel Delzangles-trained HAPPY SAXON hasn’t done much wrong in her three career starts. A winner on her seasonal debut in a 2,000m maiden at Chantilly, she was only beaten a head by the much more experienced ROSE JAIPUR when she stepped up to Listed level in the 2,000m Prix Melisande. She did beat third placed ALMARA decisively though, who was three lengths behind her before going on to win the G3 Prix Psyche.
On that form, this fresh filly, who has had a break since June, must have a very good chance to return back to the podium.
In the G3 Prix Psyche, ROCK’N SWING finished third, which wasn’t a bad performance, but she will appreciate the drop back in class. The daughter of CAMELOT had actually made a very promising start to her career when winning her first two races but then disappointed when she was stepped up in class. Seventh in the G1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains over 1,600m and a no-show in the G1 Prix de Diane over 2,100m, she will be trying to redeem herself in this 2,100m Listed race.
SOME SKYE is very consistent but hasn’t managed to get her nose first over the line. She was well beaten by HAPPY SAXON when they met in the Listed Prix Melisande over 2,000m at ParisLongchamp, but didn’t disgrace herself when finishing fourth against the colts last time out.
Irish trainer Henry de Bromhead is known for his success with jump horses, but he has a very good record when he turns his attention to the Flat. HIGHER LEAVES, who won her maiden on the all-weather track at Dundalk in the spring, must not be underestimated. She was last seen in the 2,400m G2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot where she couldn’t express herself. A return to the shorter trip and running against 3YOs should help and it wouldn’t be a surprise if she ran into a place.
Francis-Henri Graffard has enjoyed an excellent run recently, so it would be wrong to ignore SELEMIAH. A late developer, she never ran at two but made her racecourse debut only in May this year when she finished third in a 2,400m race at Saint-Cloud. Since then, she was placed in two maiden races over 2,400m and 2,200m. On her most recent start, she was brought back to 2,000m and duly won.
SELECTIONS: 8. HAPPY SAXON, 3. ROCK'N SWING, 2. SOME SKYE, 6. HIGHER LEAVES & 1. SELEMIAH
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-2: Multiple – 8. HAPPY SAXON & 3. ROCK'N SWING
S3-3: Multiple – 2. SIRONA & 8. STOP THE CAVALRY
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S3-2:
Banker – 8. HAPPY SAXON
Selections – 3. ROCK'N SWING, 2. SOME SKYE, 6. HIGHER LEAVES & 1. SELEMIAH
S3-3:
Banker – 2. SIRONA
Selections – 8. STOP THE CAVALRY, 3. MOUNTAIN SONG, 7. LOVE RUSH & 6. SECRETIVE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S3-2: Multiple – 8. HAPPY SAXON, 3. ROCK'N SWING & 2. SOME SKYE
S3-3: Multiple – 2. SIRONA, 8. STOP THE CAVALRY & 3. MOUNTAIN SONG
S3-4: Multiple – 5. HAMAVI, 1. SHAMARKAND & 4. COLUMBUS
S3-3 Prix de la Cochere
The Prix de la Cochere is a Listed event for fillies and mares over 1,600m featuring two British raiders amongst the French contenders. The British pair look like the two to beat, and it’s SIRONA who brings the best form to the table. David Menuisier’s filly is only a three-time winner in her 15-race career but has been highly tried on many occasions. She ran with credit as a 3YO, and this year has been narrowly beaten in two G3 events over 1,400m, before a very fine defeat behind PORTA FORTUNA in the G1 Falmouth Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket in July. That effort, and her subsequent sixth in an Ascot G3, both came over 1,600m, and she’s the most likely winner.
The other UK runner is STOP THE CAVALRY, who unlike SIRONA, has very few runs to her name. Ralph Beckett’s filly has only competed four times, but is twice a winner, most recently in a competitive 1,200m handicap at Chester in July. Her next outing was a very sound piece of form – only beaten one-and-a-quarter lengths in a smart Goodwood G3, with the filly just behind her that day having won a G2 at York since. The only real question mark against her is the 1,600m, but on pedigree it shouldn’t be a problem and she can hit the frame.
Of the French contenders, MOUNTAIN SONG looks to be the best. Originally trained by Charlie Appleby, she is now in the hands of Henri-Alex Pantall and has done well since moving across. Her first run was a win over this course and distance, and her placings in Listed company since mark her out as one able to make the places here.
Another filly with ParisLongchamp form is LOVE RUSH. Nicolas Clement’s charge has six starts under her belt, including a win at the track in June over 1,800m and a third in a Chantilly G3 a month later. She’ll have to recover from a poor run last time out, but she could still trouble the leaders.
SECRETIVE could be one to fight out the finish too. She didn’t progress as hoped in her 3YO season, but has shown improvement this year, particularly when a respectable fourth in a Listed race over 2,000m in May. Her second in a Deauville’s Listed race was a fine run and is enough to suggest she’ll run well here.
SELECTIONS: 2. SIRONA, 8. STOP THE CAVALRY, 3. MOUNTAIN SONG, 7. LOVE RUSH & 6. SECRETIVE
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-3: Multiple – 2. SIRONA & 8. STOP THE CAVALRY
S3-4: Multiple – 5. HAMAVI & 1. SHAMARKAND
S3-4 Prix Gerald de Geoffre
Only five 3YOs line up this year in the G3 Prix Gerald de Geoffre, run over 3,000m.
French handler Andre Fabre saddles three-time winner HAMAVI, who looks the one to beat based off recent form. Last time out the son of DUBAWI winning well in the Listed Grand Prix de Clairefontaine over 2,400m. He was held in the midfield by jockey Maxime Guyon before switching to the rail on the stands side where he dug deep and showed a quick turn of foot to put the race to bed. The step up in trip here shouldn’t prove to be an issue as he looked like he had more to give last time out.
A colt who also demands respect is SHAMARKAND for Francis Henri Graffard. The French trainer has won two of the past four renewals and SHAMARKAND looks a nice type capable of getting the business done again. The 3YO colt has performed extremely well of late, winning all of his last three starts. Last time out was against his toughest opposition yet in the Listed Prix Frederic de Lagrange over 2,400m where he was shaken up over the last 300m but finished strongly inside the final 200m to win by over two lengths. He does like the softer ground, though, so he’d love a bit of rain to fall.
Christophe Ferland saddles COLUMBUS who came up short against SHAMARKAND in the Listed Prix Frederic de Lagrange over 2,400m, but looks to have improved since then. Just under a month ago, he looked a fierce contender when winning convincingly over a longer trip in the Listed Prix Michel Houyvet over 3,000m. He is proven over this trip which should stand him in very good stead against some tough opposition.
The final selection who also has experience over this longer distance is KALET for Jean-Claude Rouget. KALET gave COLUMBUS a race in the Listed Prix Michel Houyvet over 3,000m last time out at Deauville but didn’t seem to have any gas left in the tank to really challenge the leader. However, combined with his prior run in a class 2 race over 2,900m, where he came second by a head, he might just find the frame here.
SELECTIONS: 5. HAMAVI, 1. SHAMARKAND, 4. COLUMBUS & 2. KALET
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
