 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Irish Champion Stakes Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Ingabelle Stakes
Leopardstown’s Irish Champion Stakes Day card opens with the Listed Ingabelle Stakes for 2YO fillies over 1,400m.
CHANTEZ and BUBBLING finished second and fourth respectively in a strong maiden over this course in July when both fillies were making their debuts. Both fillies have won impressively since then, with CHANTEZ a three-length winner over 1400m at Leopardstown and BUBBLING stretching five lengths clear of her opposition at Galway (1400m). The form of those contests is yet be franked but such is the promise that both fillies have shown in their two starts to date it’s not hard to see them fighting out the finish to this race, with CHANTEZ likely to confirm form from their first meeting.
UNEXPECTED ISSUES was a winner over 1,000m on her debut at Navan in May, form that was boosted by the runner-up, who has since won two competitive maidens. Trainer J A Stack then pitched his filly into G3 company, when stepping up to 1,200m in the Marble Hill Stakes at the Curragh. She looked to get caught out for tactical speed when the tempo lifted in that contest, and the combination of this step up in trip and slight drop in class could spark an improved effort.
NANCY J is one of only two once-race fillies in the field. Despite looking in need of the experience, Mrs John Harrington’s filly managed to make a winning debut at Gowran Park over 1,400m last month. She showed a good attitude under pressure and with that experience behind her is expected to improve significantly on her second start. The form from her maiden win his worked out too, with the second-placed horse winning since, so with normal improvement NANCY J could be capable of getting involved.
The other once-raced debut winner in the field is Joseph O’Brien’s MOJAVE RIVER. Unusually she was sent to France for her first start, winning in good style over 1,400m at Deauville. She was sent off favourite for that contest and was clearly well forward for her debut, so while she should be capable of improvement, there might not be as much forthcoming in comparison to NANCY J.
SELECTIONS: 3. CHANTEZ, 2. BUBBLING, 10. UNEXPECTED ISSUES, 8. NANCY J & 7. MOJAVE RIVER
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-1: Multiple – 3. CHANTEZ & 2. BUBBLING
S2-2: Multiple – 2. DELACROIX & 3. GREEN IMPACT
S2-2 Champions Juvenile Stakes (Golden Fleece Stakes)
DELACROIX is a notable entry from Ballydoyle for Aidan O’Brien, who finished 1.8 lengths clear last time out in early August when winning a maiden over 1,400m. However, on his debut, the son of DUBAWI came second to the improving GREEN IMPACT over 1600m in July and returns to the same trip again here. DELACROIX looks to have plenty of scope for improvement and he’s likely to put in a solid performance. All eyes will be on him to see if he can get the better of GREEN IMPACT this time around.
GREEN IMPACT hasn’t run since that win. He stumbled out the stalls that day, but once established in the race managed to find his stride and kept on well to win. Coming here relatively fresh for Mrs John Harrington, she’ll be hopeful of further improvement. A smoother passage through this race with jockey Shane Foley once again on board could see him in with a very good chance.
BERNARD SHAW returns to the turf having won well on the polytrack at Dundalk over 1,600m where he turned heads when pulling nine lengths clear of the runner-up. However, his debut on the grass left something to be desired, finishing over four-and-a-half lengths behind GREEN IMPACT over 1,400m, so a much-improved effort is needed here to reverse that form. Any replication of his polytrack run on the turf this time around could see him in with a shout and, as the second entry of two for Aidan O’Brien, it’d be remiss to write him off.
SELECTIONS: 2. DELACROIX, 3. GREEN IMPACT & 1. BERNARD SHAW
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-2: Multiple – 2. DELACROIX & 3. GREEN IMPACT
S2-3: Multiple – 4. MALJOOM & 10. DIEGO VELAZQUEZ
S2-3 Solonaway Stakes
Aidan O’Brien, who has captured this 1,600m prize six times, saddles two of the runners, including DIEGO VELAZQUEZ, who looks sure to start a warm favourite, and MOUNTAIN BEAR, who was runner-up in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf over 1,600m at Santa Anita.
DIEGO VELAZQUEZ, who has been a slow learner, has proved as expensive to punters as he was for Coolmore to buy at the yearling sales. Though successful in the G2 Champion Juvenile over 1,600m on this card 12 months ago, he still has plenty to prove. He started his second season with a promising fourth in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains over 1,600m but then flopped badly in the Prix du Jockey Club over 2,100m and again at Royal Ascot over 2,400m. However, DIEGO VELAZQUEZ salvaged some of his tarnished reputation when dropping down to 1,800m over this course in July. He is a colt with a big engine, but for one with such an inconsistent record, his odds are short enough. British stables have beaten the home-trained contingent in this race four times in the last five years, and the raiders again look strong.
William Haggas might hold the trump card to topple the favourite in MALJOOM, whose disappointing run in the International Stakes at York over 2,100m is best ignored as he ran too free over the longer trip. He is best judged on his excellent third to CHARYN at Royal Ascot’s Queen Anne Stakes over 1,600m and his second to 2000 Guineas winner NOTABLE SPEECH in the Sussex Stakes over 1,600m at Goodwood.
The Crisford stable, successful two years ago, again have a likely player in POKER FACE, who has won two Group races over 1,600m in France last season. He split CHARYN and LORD NORTH on his reappearance at Sandown over 1,600m in April, but he has not reproduced that form since, being disappointing at Goodwood over 1,600m last time.
We have learned over the years never to underestimate O’Brien’s second-string, and MOUNTAIN BEAR cannot be dismissed. He is invariably the last horse to come off the bridle, and, though inconsistent, he was back on song here over 1,600m last time, failing narrowly to peg back MUTASARREF after a slow start.
Not that we can dismiss MUTASARREF as he comes alive on this course, winning four times here, including twice over this 1,600m.
SELECTIONS: 4. MALJOOM, 10. DIEGO VELAZQUEZ, 12. MOUNTAIN BEAR, 6. POKER FACE & 5. MUTASARREF
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-3: Multiple – 4. MALJOOM & 10. DIEGO VELAZQUEZ
S2-4: Multiple – 4. FALLEN ANGEL & 6. PORTA FORTUNA
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-3:
Banker – 4. MALJOOM
Selections – 10. DIEGO VELAZQUEZ, 12. MOUNTAIN BEAR, 6. POKER FACE & 5. MUTASARREF
S2-4:
Banker – 4. FALLEN ANGEL
Selections – 6. PORTA FORTUNA, 5. JANCIS, 10. YLANG YLANG & 7. SOPRANO
S2-4 Matron Stakes
The Matron Stakes is a G1 event for fillies and mares over the 1,600m trip and features a host of class entrants.
It has been almost 4 months since FALLEN ANGEL was last seen on a racecourse, but that shouldn’t put you off her. Karl Burke’s filly was a G1-winning juvenile and entered this season as a big Classic contender. Things didn’t go right for her in the 1,600m G1 1000 Guineas at Newmarket in May, but she bounced back in style next time out in the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas over the same trip at the Curragh 19 days later. Injury has prevented her from running in the meantime, but she has the most upside of all in this, and potentially the most talent, making her the one to beat.
While FALLEN ANGEL has been on the sidelines, PORTA FORTUNA has been making hay. A 1,200m G1 winner as a juvenile, Donnacha O'Brien’s 3YO was a close second in the G1 1000 Guineas at Newmarket in May, before two G1 1,600m victories followed at Royal Ascot and Newmarket. She has blossomed into a serious 1600m filly this year, and although she is less fresh than FALLEN ANGEL, she should be ready to hit the frame here.
Unlike FALLEN ANGEL and PORTA FORTUNA, JANCIS enters this race under the radar. Willie McCreery’s filly is unbeaten in two starts this year, both over 1,400m at Leopardstown. The latter came in G3 company, where she was impressive as she powered clear by 2.3 lengths. This race represents a significant jump in class, but she has a place chance.
YLANG YLANG is firmly on a retrieval mission here. Aidan O’Brien’s filly was a three-time winner as a juvenile, including in G1 company at Newmarket in October over 1,600m. She was expected to be a big force this season but has failed to live up to her billing with defeats in the aforementioned 1000 Guineas and Oaks, before being even more disappointing in her comeback over this course-and-distance 37 days ago.
O’Brien is a master at reviving his runners though, and she’s smart enough to bounce back into the places. SOPRANO has been a real flag-bearer for George Boughey’s stable this year. She has been consistent in her six starts, running with credit on each occasion and landing two valuable 1,600m events, including at Royal Ascot’s Sandringham Stakes. Winning might be a tough task, but don’t rule her out of the places.
SELECTIONS: 4. FALLEN ANGEL, 6. PORTA FORTUNA, 5. JANCIS, 10. YLANG YLANG & 7. SOPRANO
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-4: Multiple – 4. FALLEN ANGEL & 6. PORTA FORTUNA
S2-5: Multiple – 1. AUGUSTE RODIN & 5. ECONOMICS
S2-5 Irish Champion Stakes
With a record 12 G1 Irish Champion Stakes wins to his name, including each of the last five renewals, Aidan O’Brien’s runners will be well respected.
Last year’s winner, AUGUSTE RODIN, is back to defend his crown and looks like the ace in O’Brien’s quartet. The six-time G1 winner has been prolific in his three campaigns so far, but he’s not been a model of consistency. He finished last in the 2,410m G1 Dubai Sheema Classic back in March and then threw in another below-par run when fifth in July’s G1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Knowing which AUGUSTE RODIN will turn up on the day is hard to be sure of, but if he puts his best foot forward he’ll be hard to beat.
ECONOMICS is the up-and-coming challenger stepping into G1 company for the first time. He was impressive in winning the 2,000m G2 Prix Guillaume d'Ornano in August after three months off the track and deserves his crack at this level. While he looks both talented and progressive, the form from his two G2 victories is yet to be fully franked and it would take a big performance to lower the colours of an on-song AUGUSTE RODIN.
5YO LUXEMBOURG has become something of a globetrotter for the O’Brien team over the last 12 months. He was narrowly denied victory in the G1 LONGINES Hong Kong Cup over 2,000m by ROMANTIC WARRIOR in December and ran a promising fourth in the G2 Neom Turf Cup over 2,100m on his next start. Like stablemate AUGUSTE RODIN, he failed to land a blow at Meydan in March, finishing down the field in the 1,800m G1 Dubai Turf, but bounced back to win the G1 Coronation Cup over 2,400m at Epsom in May. That was his only victory at 2,400m, and it was a race that was run to suit. Most of his best form has come over this 2,000m trip. He was second to AUGUSTE RODIN in this last year and should be thereabouts again.
GHOSTWRITER finished third in a hot renewal of the G1 International Stakes most recently and is yet to finish outside of the top four in his four starts in G1 company. He has the potential to spring a surprise if others run below their best, while Japanese contender SHIN EMPEROR can’t be ignored for all-conquering trainer Yoshito Yahagi.
SELECTIONS: 1. AUGUSTE RODIN, 5. ECONOMICS, 3. LUXEMBOURG, 6. GHOSTWRITER & 8. SHIN EMPEROR
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 1. AUGUSTE RODIN & 5. ECONOMICS
S2-6: Multiple – 1. KLONDIKE & 3. SUMIHA
S2-6 Kilternan Stakes
This intriguing 2,400m G3 could be set for export as Newmarket raider KLONDIKE seems poised to produce a big effort for William Haggas. Haggas does not have many runners in Ireland, but what he does send over deserves respect and KLONDIKE is a horse he has long held in high regard. Befitting the trainer’s approach, the 4YO has not been over-raced, which could be paying off. A solid fourth in a 2,400m York handicap on his return this year, the son of GALILEO then won a 2,800m Listed race at York before flopping over that distance in a G3 at the same venue next time. That was an off day and the largely consistent colt was back to form with a career-best in a Deauville G3 over 2,500m most recently.
Dermot Weld has landed this race five times since 2014 and must possess claims of another victory with SUMIHA. A winner over 2,000m on her debut last year, she was second in Listed races at Cork and the Curragh over 2,400m before winning a G3 at the former track over the same distance in June. That form appears strong and there must be more to come from her.
TRUSTYOURINSTINCT is another to consider despite him running over hurdles earlier in the year. He was decent at that, but gave the impression he would be better suited to Flat racing again and was second to JAN BRUEGHEL in a Curragh G3 in June. Last month he went down to CONTINUOUS in another Curragh G3 and should be suited stepping up to 2,400m from the 2,000m those races took place over.
The Mrs John Harrington-trained KINESIOLOGY is a likeable, potential improver as well and merits closer inspection despite losing a Listed race at Leopardstown over 2,800m on his last start. He bumped a rival late on so was demoted to second, but that may have been a harsh decision and coming back to 2,400m could be a plus given the way he wandered around towards the finish.
Like Weld, Aidan O’Brien has had success in this – four victories since 2018 – so it could pay to consider EUPHORIC for the master trainer. He has been used as a pacemaker lately, but a close second to stablemate and leading Irish Champion Stakes player LOS ANGELES in a Leopardstown G3 over 2,000m in May reads well.
SELECTIONS: 1. KLONDIKE, 3. SUMIHA, 4. TRUSTYOURINSTINCT, 8. EUPHORIC & 9. KINESIOLOGY
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-6: Multiple – 1. KLONDIKE & 3. SUMIHA
S2-7: Multiple – 5. PLONTIER & 6. CHEMISTRY
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-6:
Banker – 1. KLONDIKE
Selections – 3. SUMIHA, 4. TRUSTYOURINSTINCT, 8. EUPHORIC & 9. KINESIOLOGY
S2-7:
Banker – 5. PLONTIER
Selections – 6. CHEMISTRY, 1. EAGLE’S WAY, 11. COMFORT ZONE & 7. AMEERAT JUMAIRA
S2-7 3yo+ Handicap
The 3yo+ Handicap is a prestigious contest run over 2,600m for horses three years old and over.
It’s always a competitive race and PLONTIER – a prolific winner in Poland, France and Spain before joining champion jumps trainer Willie Mullins – looks have been targeted at this prize. He easily won his hurdles debut over 4,100m at Sligo last month and he looks potentially very well weighted for his first run on the Flat in Ireland. Mullins has won this race twice in the last seven years and he has a very interesting contender on his hands this time.
CHEMISTRY hasn’t had much racing but he looks a smart stayer. He returned from a four-month break to land a 2,800m Listed race at Leopardstown three weeks ago. The stewards handed him victory after he had finished second but it was nothing less than he deserved as he was bumped by first-past-the-post KINESIOLOGY in the closing stages. He has only had three runs in his career and he should continue to improve.
EAGLE’S WAY was a useful handicapper in Britain when trained by Sir Mark Prescott and he’s been in great form since joining William Durkan. After a promising hurdles debut, he returned to the Flat to land a 2,465m Bellewstown contest. He backed it up by making all the running to win a competitive 2,400m handicap at the Galway Festival. There’s every chance he will hold his own in Group races in the near future.
COMFORT ZONE finished runner-up behind SATIN in this race 12 months ago. He returned to form over hurdles when third in a hot 4,500m handicap at last month’s Galway Festival. This will only be his eighth run on the Flat and Joseph O’Brien’s runner will be able to put his stamina to good use in a race that is likely to be run at a strong pace.
AMEERAT JUMAIRA beat in-form STAR HARBOUR over 2,100m on Dundalk’s all-weather track last month. She easily followed up by winning a 2,400m fillies’ handicap at the Curragh nine days later. The handicapper has given her a hefty rise in the weights for her two wins but she is in a hot streak of form.
SELECTIONS: 5. PLONTIER, 6. CHEMISTRY, 1. EAGLE’S WAY, 11. COMFORT ZONE & 7. AMEERAT JUMAIRA
7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-7: Multiple – 5. PLONTIER & 6. CHEMISTRY
S2-8: Multiple – 3. CERULEAN BAY & 9. CUBAN TIGER
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-7: Multiple – 5. PLONTIER, 6. CHEMISTRY & 1. EAGLE’S WAY
S2-8: Multiple – 3. CERULEAN BAY, 9. CUBAN TIGER & 17. OLD FAITHFUL
S2-9: Multiple – 7. QUADRUPLE, 15. EVENING BLOSSOM & 11. SERIALISE
S2-8 3yo+ Handicap
CERULEAN BAY is thriving at present and is taken to complete a four timer on his first start outside of Britain in the 3yo+ Handicap over 1,400m at Leopardstown. The David O’Meara-trained 3YO has turned a corner since being dropped back to 1,400m following victories at Haydock and back-to-back wins at Thirsk. Although only winning by small margins on each of his last two starts, it means he could still have more to offer in handicap company, and with reigning Irish champion flat jockey Colin Keane booked, and good ground in his favour, another bold bid can be expected.
Finishing one place behind CERULEAN BAY at Thirsk last time out was CUBAN TIGER. The Karl Burke-trained colt finished second behind subsequent G1 2000 Guineas winner NOTABLE SPEECH in a 1,600m conditions event on the all-weather at Kempton in February, before winning a Listed race at Newcastle next time out. A strong run 1,400m could be just what the son of HAVANA GREY wants judging by his latest finishing effort, and with a swing in the weights with his last time out conqueror, a first turf success could be just around the corner.
Runners from the Aidan O’Brien yard are always feared and the Ballydoyle master could have an interesting runner in OLD FAITHFUL. Not beaten far when finishing ninth at the Curragh last time out, it was only in the closing stages that his effort petered out. The draw in gate one might not be ideal, and will require him to receive some luck in running, but the drop back to 1,400m should see him in a much better light.
HURRICANE IVOR might now be in the latter stages of his career, but the admirable 7YO has shown this season that he still retains plenty of ability. The return to 1,400m in four of his last five starts has yielded a victory at the Curragh in May and a solid second on heavy ground at Galway last time out. A repeat of his most recent effort, on what would be more favourable conditions, puts him right in the mix.
DANCE NIGHT ANDDAY failed to fire in the G3 Ballyogan Stakes over 1,186m at Naas last time out, however the step back up in trip looks to be a positive move after she was just denied a first Listed success in the Platinum Stakes over 1,400m at Cork in August. This represents a significant drop in class for the Ross O’Sullivan-trained filly, who was a winner at the course on her previous start there last year.
SELECTIONS: 3. CERULEAN BAY, 9. CUBAN TIGER, 17. OLD FAITHFUL, 8. HURRICANE IVOR & 7. DANCE NIGHT ANDDAY
8TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-8: Multiple – 3. CERULEAN BAY & 9. CUBAN TIGER
S2-9: Multiple – 7. QUADRUPLE & 15. EVENING BLOSSOM
S2-9 HKJC World Pool Autumn Fillies Handicap
A competitive 1,600m handicap contested by some established performers, but also a number of lightly-raced 3YOs who still look to be improving as they gain more race experience. The effect of the draw over this distance at Leopardstown is minimal, adding to the open nature of the contest.
QUADRUPLE, a daughter of FRANKEL, has put together a solid sequence of form, not finishing out of the first two in her last four starts with each run a step up on her previous performance. She lost out by a nose in a 1,400m Leopardstown handicap in July on her penultimate start, but stepped up to 1,600m at the Curragh, the Ger Lyons-trained filly showed great resolution to make all the running and win decisively.
EVENING BLOSSOM, one of three representatives from the Joseph O’Brien stable, has also got her act together, following up her first career success in a 1,600m Gowran maiden with a narrow but assured win over today’s course and distance last month. Further back were SEPTEMBER LEAVES (fourth), SUMPTUARY LAW (fifth), SUPER EXCEED (sixth) and ELINOR DASHWOOD (seventh). Subsequently, the runner-up in that race and SEPTEMBER LEAVES have both been successful, adding weight to the EVENING BLOSSOM form.
SERIALISE, who got off the mark in a 1,600m Naas maiden in May, was in season when a disappointing eighth in a 1,400m Leopardstown handicap in July. She bounced back emphatically with a career-best performance last time out to win a 1,400m Cork handicap by a neck with ELINOR DASHWOOD back in third place. SERIALISE finished very strongly there so the step back up to the longer distance should not be an issue.
LADY LUNETTE didn’t get the best of runs when ninth in a 1,600m Galway handicap in July but she will appreciate the faster ground she should get here. More importantly, she thrives in the cut and thrust of a large-field handicap as she showed when beating SNELLEN to win a 1,800m handicap at Leopardstown in July.
Top weight STAR GALAXY has been running in Listed races this season but drops into a handicap for the first time since she was successful in a 1,800m race at Punchestown in September last year. Down in grade she cannot be ignored.
SELECTIONS: 7. QUADRUPLE, 15. EVENING BLOSSOM, 11. SERIALISE, 4. LADY LUNETTE & 1. STAR GALAXY
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