 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Moyglare Stud Stakes, Flying Five Stakes, Vincent O'Brien National Stakes, Irish St. Leger (S3) (Bill Esdaile)
S3-1 Moyglare Stud Stakes
Aidan O’Brien hasn’t won the G1 Moyglare Stud Stakes over 1,400m since 2019 but he dominates this year’s field. His BEDTIME STORY goes into the race unbeaten in four starts and already looks a leading contender for Classic honours next season. After making a winning debut over 1,400m at Leopardstown in June, she ran away with Royal Ascot’s Listed Chesham Stakes over 1,400m by more than nine lengths later in the month. She had little trouble seeing off stablemate EXACTLY in a 1,400m Leopardstown G3 contest in July, but she was made to work harder when beating the same filly to land a Curragh G2 over 1,400m last month. The steady pace didn’t suit her in her most recent race and the O’Brien team are likely to ensure a stronger gallop this time.
LAKE VICTORIA is an excellent second string for O’Brien to have. She is unbeaten in two races and looked a top-class prospect when making short work of her rivals in the G3 Sweet Solera Stakes over 1,400m at Newmarket last month. Her presence just underlines the strength of this race and it wouldn’t be a surprise if more than one of these fillies went on to win top-level races.
RED LETTER was beaten a head by LAKE VICTORIA on her debut when the pair pulled well clear of the rest of the field. She couldn’t have been much more impressive on her second start. After going straight into the lead in the early stages of that 1,400m Curragh maiden, she never looked in any danger and came right away to win easily. The form of that race looks particularly solid too. This is obviously a big step up in grade but Ger Lyons’ filly is clearly very smart.
SELECTIONS: 1. BEDTIME STORY, 3. LAKE VICTORIA & 4. RED LETTER
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-1: Multiple – 1. BEDTIME STORY & 3. LAKE VICTORIA
S3-2: Multiple – 13. BELIEVING & 2. BRADSELL
S3-2 Flying Five Stakes
The Flying Five Stakes is a G1 event over 1,000m which features some of the fastest northern hemisphere sprinters.
The G1 Nunthorpe Stakes over 1,000m first and second BRADSELL and BELIEVING are set to renew their rivalry, however there may be a reversal of the placings this time. BELIEVING has been a very consistent operator this season, winning twice, including a G2 over this course and distance in July. George Boughey’s filly has also run with credit on all but one start this term, finishing fast and late on her previous two runs, the latest when second to BRADSELL at York last month, and with a more favourable run, she can turn the tables.
BRADSELL should not be discounted, though, as he’s shown he’s a top-class sprinter. A G2 winner over 1,200m as a juvenile, Archie Watson’s colt has been lightly raced since, but has still managed to pick up two 1,000m G1 events, including the aforementioned Nunthorpe Stakes in August. He’s run twice at the Curragh and disappointed on both starts though, so he may have to settle for second here.
MAKAROVA is an admirable mare who might not get the credit she deserves. Despite only winning four of her 26 races, Ed Walker’s 5YO has matured into a smart sprinter who rarely puts a foot wrong. This season she’s run a host of good races behind top horses, including BELIEVING over this course and distance in July, and she can hit the frame again.
Clive Cox is known for how well he trains his sprinters and KERDOS is another fine example of his exploits.
Brought through the handicap ranks early last season, he has now established himself as a competitive horse in many top 1,000m events. His victory in the G2 Temple Stakes at Haydock in May was well deserved and he has since run with credit in both the G1 King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot and G2 King George Stakes at Goodwood. He might not be quite good enough to trouble the leaders, but he should be there at the finish.
BUCANERO FUERTE drops back in trip here to 1,000m for the first time since winning on his debut over this course and distance. He won the G3 Lacken Stakes at Naas earlier this season and return with a solid effort in the G1 Sprint Cup Stakes over 1,200m last weekend. If able to back up quickly after that, he’s interesting back at the minimum trip.
SELECTIONS: 13. BELIEVING, 2. BRADSELL, 14. MAKAROVA, 6. KERDOS & 9. BUCANERO FUERTE
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-2: Multiple – 13. BELIEVING & 2. BRADSELL
S3-3: Multiple – 3. HENRI MATISSE & 2. COWARDOFTHECOUNTY
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S3-2:
Banker – 13. BELIEVING
Selections – 2. BRADSELL, 14. MAKAROVA, 6. KERDOS & 9. BUCANERO FUERTE
S3-3:
Banker – 3. HENRI MATISSE
Selections – 2. COWARDOFTHECOUNTY, 1. AOMORI CITY, 4. HILL ROAD & 8. THE PARTHENON
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S3-2: Multiple – 13. BELIEVING, 2. BRADSELL & 14. MAKAROVA
S3-3: Multiple – 3. HENRI MATISSE, 2. COWARDOFTHECOUNTY & 1. AOMORI CITY
S3-4: Multiple – 3. GIAVELLOTTO, 4. KYPRIOS & 5. VAUBAN
S3-3 Vincent O'Brien National Stakes
HENRI MATISSE looks poised to maintain his unbeaten record and give trainer Aidan O’Brien a 13th win in the G1 Vincent O'Brien National Stakes over 1,400m. The son of WOOTTON BASSETT is yet to put a foot wrong in three starts and produced his best display late time out on his first start over 1,400m in the G2 Futurity Stakes over course and distance. Travelling powerfully into contention, he appeared to appreciate the extra distance when striding clear late on despite jinking to his left close to the line. The combination of O’Brien and Ryan Moore teamed up to take the race 12 months ago with HENRY LONGFELLOW and they could be the combination to beat once again.
COWARDOFTHECOUNTY left behind defeats in the G2 Coventry Stakes over 1,200m at Royal Ascot and in the G3 Anglesey Stakes over 1,257m at the Curragh with victory in the G3 Prix Francois Boutin over 1,400m at Deauville last time out. The form of that race has since been boosted with the runner-up winning a G3 and fifth-placed horse landing a Listed race. While he needs to find further improvement, his last time out effort suggests that is entirely possible given how strongly he hit the line over what looks like his right trip.
Charlie Appleby has won three of the last six renewals of the race and AOMORI CITY will bid to supply him with win number four. Although defeated in the G2 July Stakes over 1,200m at Newmarket, he was another that appreciated going further when winning the G2 HKJC World Pool Vintage Stakes over 1,400m at Goodwood with plenty of authority. With ground conditions in his favour, and his trainer’s fine record in the race, the son of OASIS DREAM looks set to put up a bold bid.
HILL ROAD put up an impressive display on his debut when running out a clear-cut winner of a 1,600m maiden at Leopardstown last month, form of which has been boosted since. Although he is the least experienced runner in the field, connections feel he has the necessary speed for the drop back in trip while his assured stamina could come into play if there is plenty of pace on.
THE PARTHENON suffered a surprise defeat in the Listed Stonehenge Stakes at Salisbury, where his stamina appeared to run out over 1,600m. His cause was not helped by losing a shoe that day, but a return to the same trip he won his maiden over at Gowran should help his cause.
SELECTIONS: 3. HENRI MATISSE, 2. COWARDOFTHECOUNTY, 1. AOMORI CITY, 4. HILL ROAD & 8. THE PARTHENON
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-3: Multiple – 3. HENRI MATISSE & 2. COWARDOFTHECOUNTY
S3-4: Multiple – 3. GIAVELLOTTO & 4. KYPRIOS
S3-4 Irish St. Leger
Aidan O’Brien has the outstanding stayer in training in KYPRIOS who is bidding to add a second G1 Irish St Leger over 2,800m to his list of accolades after winning the race in 2022. Since returning from injury in 2023, O’Brien has worked wonders to return KYPRIOS to his best. This season he has won all four of his outings, over trips of 2800m to 4000m, showing his great versatility and the battling qualities of a champion.
He had to battle to get the better of a dogged rival in TRAWLERMAN in the G1 Gold Cup over 3,991m at Royal Ascot, but last time out he always looked in control against lesser opposition in the G1 Goodwood Cup over 3,200m. Given that level of form KYPRIOS could prove hard to beat, but he does face a new and greatly improved rival here in GIAVELLOTTO.
Marco Botti’s 5YO GIAVELLOTTO has won the G2 Yorkshire Cup over 2,800m for the last two seasons, this year looking better than ever when defeating VAUBAN by over four lengths. He was dropped back to 2,400m for the Princess of Wales's Stakes last time out but the shorter trip proved no issue and he showed real pace for a stayer to quicken up and win comfortably. It’s that ability to quicken that could make him a danger to KYPRIOS here, especially if they don’t go a strong gallop from the off. If this turns into a tactical battle, then GIAVELLOTTO might just have the pace to get the better of his more decorated rival and land a first G1 win.
The Willie Mullins-trained VAUBAN has been beaten by both GIAVELLOTTO and KYPRIOS already this season and was then left well behind in the G2 Curragh Cup over 2,800m where he looked to lack a change of gear. However, he returned to better form last time out when winning the G2 Lonsdale Cup over 3,300m at York. He travelled strongly into that race and looked set to win comfortably before idling at the finish and letting a rival close in near the line. That was a step back in the right direction but he will need to raise his level significantly once again if he is to beat the big two.
On all known form the five others in the field have plenty to find and it would be a surprise if they were good enough to be involved. Two that could fill the minor places are AL QAREEM, who is largely consistent and THE EUPHRATES, who could find some improvement for the step up to 2,800m.
SELECTIONS: 3. GIAVELLOTTO, 4. KYPRIOS, 5. VAUBAN, 1. AL QAREEM & 8. THE EUPHRATES
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