 Expert - Jon Lees | |
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| Jon Lees is an award-winning racing journalist who was senior news reporter for the Racing Post for 20 years, before that he was chief racing correspondent for Britain’s national news agency, the Press Association. He was named Racing Reporter of the Year at the HWPA Derby Awards in 2013. He has travelled extensively covering horse racing, attending his first Breeders’ Cup in 1994. Since 2018 Jon has been a freelance, writing for The Times, the Telegraph, At The Races and Breeders’ Cup, working in PR for Ladbrokes and Newbury racecourse, and regularly contributes to the website horseracingplanet.com. | |
Expert Column for California Crown Day (S1) (Jon Lees)
S1-1 John Henry Turf Championship
The G2 race sees all six horses that ran in the G2 Del Mar Handicap at the end of August reoppose over 2,000m.
Last time GOLD PHOENIX defeated DICEY MO CHARA, BALNIKHOV, ROCKEMPEROR, MASTER PIECE and EL ENCINAL. Just 1.5 lengths separated the first five finishers to the contest.
GOLD PHOENIX, who won the Charles Whittingham Stakes over the same course and distance earlier in the year, and now bids for his seventh graded stakes victory as one of four horses in the field trained by Philip D'Amato. The southern California trainer excels with European imports, which all four of his runners are.
In the Del Mar Handicap. GOLD PHOENIX obtained a run up the inside of long time leader DICEY MO CHARA to snatch victory by a neck. He was conceding 2lbs to the runner-up and now has to give that rival 4lbs over the shorter distance.
BALNIKHOV, who is 1lbs better off with the winner for a neck beating, was making ground late having had to wait behind horses to make his challenge and it could be significant that D’Amato has brought in top jockey Flavien Prat to replace Kazushi Kimura, who now rides SEVEN WONDERS.
DIVIN PROPOS, winner of an optional claiming race last time, takes a jump in class but kept good company previously in France where he finished third behind ZARAKEM, now one of Europe’s top milers, at Listed level.
SELECTIONS: 11. BALNIKHOV, 5. DICEY MO CHARA, 9. GOLD PHOENIX, 3. DIVIN PROPOS & 6. ROCKEMPEROR
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 11. BALNIKHOV & 5. DICEY MO CHARA
S1-2: Multiple – 6. AIR FORCE RED & 2. FIRST PEACE
S1-2 Eddie D Stakes
This year’s Eddie D Stakes over 1,300m includes a challenger from New York in BIG INVASION who returns to the scene of his career high when he was beaten a neck in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint last November. That race was over 1,000m and, while he was a battling winner of a Listed race at Saratoga over 1,100m earlier this month and the booking of Flavien Prat is significant, all his best form is over the shorter distance.
TWO RIVERS OVER returns to turf for his first race since he captured the G2 Godolphin Mile on dirt at Meydan in Dubai in March. He is 0-for-5 on turf, but hasn’t tried the surface for present trainer Doug O'Neill.
KING OF GOSFORD has earned a first crack in graded company having won three of his five starts this year. A versatile performer he has won two races over this course and distance. He should be on the shortlist over this trip.
AIR FORCE RED is another who has been racing over further, and won an allowance race over 1,700m in August. On his record over this course and distance of four wins from seven starts, including when making all the running to claim a G2 in December. He must be a major player.
JOHNNY PODRES warmed up for this challenge by finishing second in a G3 handicap at Del Mar over 1,000m but has winning form over this course and distance, including a verdict over FIRST PEACE at Listed level in April.
NOBLE REFLECTION finished third in this race 12 months ago but has been below his best this year.
SELECTIONS: 6. AIR FORCE RED, 2. FIRST PEACE, 11. BIG INVASION, 1. JOHNNY PODRES & 5. KING OF GOSFORD
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 6. AIR FORCE RED & 2. FIRST PEACE
S1-3: Multiple – 5. MUTH & 3. NATIONAL TREASURE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 6. AIR FORCE RED, 2. FIRST PEACE & 11. BIG INVASION
S1-3: Multiple – 5. MUTH, 3. NATIONAL TREASURE & 6. SENOR BUSCADOR
S1-4: Multiple – 3. JOHANNES, 6. TRIKARI & 8. ALMENDARES
S1-3 California Crown Stakes
The G1 California Crown Stakes run over 1,800m with a $1 million purse.
Southern California’s leading trainer Bob Baffert won the race eight times in the past and is strongly represented again with three of the seven horses in the declared field, NEWGATE, NATIONAL TREASURE and MUTH.
However, the best known horse in the race is SENOR BUSCADOR, winner of the $20m Saudi Cup back in February.
MUTH is one of two 3YOs in the field. He made a winning return to action from a five month absence in a Del Mar Listed race in which he dismissed INDISPENSABLE by two lengths. Had his trainer not been serving a suspension from Churchill Downs, MUTH would have been a leading challenger for the Kentucky Derby, on the strength of his victory in the Arkansas Derby in March. He beat the subsequent Kentucky Derby winner MYSTIK DAN by more than six lengths at Oaklawn Park. He was declared for the Preakness Stakes but was scratched with a fever. His last time out victory in the Shared Belief Stakes on September 2, where he scored easing down, should have set him up for a return to top company and he has the advantage of a small weight for age pull with his seniors.
SENOR BUSCADOR finished second to NATIONAL TREASURE in the Pegasus World Cup and then was a surprise winner of the Saudi Cup, in which NATIONAL TREASURE was fourth, but didn’t last the 2,000m when third in the Dubai World Cup. He came back from the break to run fourth in a G2 at Del Mar in August over 1,400m but may need another run to return to his peak.
NATIONAL TREASURE was right up with the pace in the Saudi Cup but could not sustain the gallop all the way to the line, finishing just under two lengths off the winner. On his next start he made all the running over 1,600m to win the Metropolitan Handicap at Saratoga by 6.3 lengths from the smart POST TIME, to whom he was conceding weight, but the tables were turned next time when NATIONAL TREASURE finished down in sixth and POST TIME third in the G1 Whitney Stakes.
NEWGATE has not run since finishing ninth in the Dubai World Cup over 2,000m but previously defeated SUBSANADOR to win the Santa Anita Handicap in March. SUBSANADOR won a G3 race at Monmouth Park next time out.
SELECTIONS: 5. MUTH, 3. NATIONAL TREASURE, 6. SENOR BUSCADOR, 1. NEWGATE & 2. SUBSANADOR
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 5. MUTH & 3. NATIONAL TREASURE
S1-4: Multiple – 3. JOHANNES & 6. TRIKARI
S1-4 City of Hope Mile
G1 winner JOHANNES bids to extend his winning streak to four in this G2 race which offers an automatic berth into the Breeders’ Cup Mile.
The winner of the Shoemaker Mile Stakes in May, in which DU JOUR finished third and EASTER and CONCLUDE down the field, gave weight and an emphatic beating to DICEY MO CHARA and BALNIKHOV, who contest the John Henry, next time out, in the Eddie Read Stakes over 1,800m at Del Mar in July with EASTER and DU JOUR again behind him. He was taken to the front early in the straight and once clear was never going to be caught, winning by 2.5 lengths. JOHANNES is going to be tough to beat in the same form.
CONCLUDE returned to winning form when he made all the running in last month’s G2 Del Mar Mile, beating ALMENDARES by a head with ASTRONOMER third and DU JOUR fourth. He will probably need another level to figure. ASTRONOMER finished second in this race 12 months ago.
The main threat to JOHANNES’ unbeaten campaign could come from 3YO TRIKARI, who has been shipped in from Maryland by trainer Graham Motion. He has won five of his eight starts and this year has captured the Grade I Belmont Derby in July and the Grade 2 Secretariat at Colonial Downs in August under John Velazquez, who is also making the trip west to ride. This will be his first start against older horses.
SELECTIONS: 3. JOHANNES, 6. TRIKARI, 8. ALMENDARES, 1. DU JOUR & 5. EASTER
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