 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Sprinters Stakes Day (S2) (Naohiro Goda)
S2-1 2yo Newcomer
Maiden for unraced two-year-old over 2,000m inner turf course at Nakayama. There are so many uncertain factors and it is tough to predict.
My first choice is PIC DES MOUCHE, bred by Northern Farm and owned by Katsumi Yoshida. He has been trained very well at Miho Training Center in the morning for last three weeks and gained attention by media members. In fact, this colt was entered in Maiden at Nakayama a week ago and excluded from the field as too many horses were entered. I am sure he is ready to run. His dam, SENTIR is winner of four races and I believe PIC DES MOUCHE has inherited the quality from the dam.
RAFFLES DREAM, bred by Northern Farm and owned by Sunday Racing Co. Ltd., is very well-bred, as she is half-sister to SATONO ARTHUR, winner of two Graded Stakes. I am very impressed with her morning track work at Miho on September 18th, when she was breezed at woodchip course for 6 furlongs and clocked 79.7 seconds. And final 1 furlong was 11.8 seconds. While her sire EPIPHANEIA tends to send quirky horse, RAFFLES DREAM is gentle and straightforward. She is my second choice.
My third Choice is STYLUS METHOD, who is a colt by JUST A WAY from the same family as DEEP SKY, winner of Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby). He arrived at Koji Maki’s barn at Miho Training Center a month ago and has been trained steadily since then. He is a horse who has a combative spirit and has been holding his own against older horses at morning track work. Yutaka Take is booked him on Sunday and I believe STYLUS METHOD should finish within first three.
My fourth choice is THALBERG, who is two-year-old colt by DURAMENTE. While DURAMENTE tends to send runners with hot temperament, he is calm and gentle. I am impressed with his morning track work at Ritto Training Center on September 18th, when he was breezed with an older horse and not losing out to the older horse. And I have a feeling that 2,000m is suitable for him, who has a long stride.
My fifth choice is ALEGRANZA, who has been trained well at Miho Training Center since the end of August. He reacts quickly whenever a rider asks him to stretch legs. Although it looks he is still green, I think 2,000m is suitable for him and he has a good chance to finish within first five.
SELECTIONS: 13. PIC DES MOUCHES, 17. RAFFLES DREAM, 1. STYLUS METHOD, 3. THALBERG & 4. ALEGRANZA
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-1: Multiple – 13. PIC DES MOUCHES & 17. RAFFLES DREAM
S2-2: Multiple – 11. MEINER DIRECTO & 2. GLASS NO BLUES
S2-2 3yo and up 1 win
Allowance for one time winning 3YO and upper over 1,200m dirt.
My favorite is Ruffian Thoroughbred Club’s MEINER DIRECTO. He is half brother to COSMO FLIEGEN, who has won three races on turf. While COSMO FLIEGEN is by SCREEN HERO, MEINER DIRECTO is by ROSES IN MAY and Daishi Ito who trains the colt decides to send MEINER DIRECTO to races on dirt. This tactics has been working well. And since he graduated maiden class, Daishi Ito has suggested jockeys to make a good use of sharp late kick, which MEINER DIRECTO has, and it proves effective in Allowance at Nakayama on September 15th, when he finished second. I assess the competition of this race is inferior than the race on September 15th, and I think this is a good chance for MEINER DIRECTO to pick up his second win.
My second choice is GLASS NO BLUES who won novice at same course and same distance as this race on March 17th. While he made all the novice, he does not need to go in front and is able to deliver strong challenge on homestretch. For example, when he finished third in novice at Kokura on February 17th, he covered final three furlongs for 36.2 seconds, which was the co-fastest in 14 runners in the field. Once again, I assess this is not so competitive race and I believe GLASS NO BLUES has a good chance to finish within first two here.
My third choice is STJARN GOSSE. In fact, this gelding has won Allowance for one time winners at Tokyo on October 28th 2023. STJARN GOSSE finished fifth in Allowance for one time winners at Nakayama on September 7th and I think it was a good effort, as it was first start for him since June 8th. He is trained much sharper in the morning since last race and should run better on Sunday. It is an encouraging factor that Yutaka Take is booked for him.
My fourth choice is CHELSEA, who finished second in Allowance for one time winners at same course and same distance as this race on September 7th. She has won novice at same course and same distance as this race on March 23rd, and 1,200m dirt track at Nakayama should be suitable for her. Though she is a small filly, she has a big heart and I believe she is able to finish within first four on Sunday.
My fifth choice is LAVA GLOW, who finished third in Allowance for one time winners at same course and same distance as this race on September 7th. Though she finished two lengths behind CHELSEA in the Allowance, her late kick was impressive. I suspect the tempo of race should be strong and it should help Lava Glow.
SELECTIONS: 11. MEINER DIRECTO, 2. GLASS NO BLUES, 1. STJARN GOSSE, 16. CHELSEA & 12. LAVA GLOW
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-2: Multiple – 11. MEINER DIRECTO & 2. GLASS NO BLUES
S2-3: Multiple – 1. TRIDENT SPEAR & 16. CLIFFHANGER
S2-3 3yo and up 1 win
Allowance for one time winning 3YO and upper over, 2,200m outer turf course.
My favorite is TRIDENT SPEAR, bred by Northern Farm and owned by Carrot Farm Co. Ltd. This colt has inherited a sharp turn of foot from his sire, DAIWA MAJOR. He won novice at Tokyo on May 11th, covering final three furlongs for 33.9 seconds, which was the quickest in 17 runners in the field. He is a very talented horse and I assess 2,200m race at outer turf course suits him. It is only concern about him that he tends to dwelt coming out of stalls, however, I think he manages to win this race, even though he breaks slowly.
My second choice is Godolphin’s CLIFFHANGER. After the colt by RULERSHIP won novice at Nakayama on April 14th, Joao Moreira in the irons commented that “this horse has ability to compete against higher class”. Since then, he started at the class for one time winners twice and finished 4th and 3rd. In Allowance at Sapporo on August 10th, he disappointed the punters who supported him as favorite. However, it was a very slowly-run race and not suitable for closers such as CLIFFHANGER. As Joao Moreira is booked on Sunday, I believe CLIFFHANGER is able to run his race and finish within first two.
RED TELEOS, bred by Shadai Farm and owned by Tokyo Horse Racing, is half brother to TRANSNATIONAL, winner of 4 races at JRA and 5 races at NAR. While TRANSNATIONAL has a difficult temperament, RED TELEOS is calm and straightforward, and has been running consistently. He finished second in Allowance for one time winners at Nakayama on September 7th, covering final three furlongs for 33.4 seconds, which was the fastest in 10 runners. I believe RED TELEOS should run well again on Sunday and finish within first three.
My fourth choice is WHITE BEACH, who is another consistent runner in this field. Although he was beaten fifth in Allowance at Nakayama on September 7th, he dwelt coming out of stalls and could not run his race. Provided he breaks well, he should be able to finish within first four on Sunday.
My fifth choice is REAL CENTER. The filly by GOLD SHIP collected her first win at Fukushima on July 21st, which was her eighth start. And she finished fourth in Allowance for one time winners at Nakayama on September 15th and I think it was a good effort, as it was first start for her since July. Her pedigree suggests she is a late bloomer and I think she has a plenty of room to improve.
SELECTIONS: 1. TRIDENT SPEAR, 16. CLIFFHANGER, 4. RED TELEOS, 10. WHITE BEACH & 17. REAL CENTER
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-3: Multiple – 1. TRIDENT SPEAR & 16. CLIFFHANGER
S2-4: Multiple – 11. UNGAISOTEN & 6. BLAZEST
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-3:
Banker – 1. TRIDENT SPEAR
Selections – 16. CLIFFHANGER, 4. RED TELEOS, 10. WHITE BEACH & 17. REAL CENTER
S2-4:
Banker – 11. UNGAISOTEN
Selections – 6. BLAZEST, 5. DEFINITIVO, 10. SHIGERU KAMIKAZE & 12. ARARE TABASHIRU
S2-4 3yo and up 2 wins
Allowance for two time winning 3YO and upper over 1,800m dirt course.
My favorite is UNGAISOTEN, who has started four times and won two of them, including Allowance for one time winners at same course and same distance as this race on September 7th. The winning time of the Allowance was faster than standard. Though this is first time for him to run against two time winners, I have a feeling that UNGAISOTEN is competitive at this class. And he has been trained beautifully since last start and I am sure he is kept in top condition.
My second choice is BLAZEST. The big colt by DECLARATION OF WAR sidelined for five months since March and returned racecourse on August 4th when he finished 6th at Niigata. And BLAZEST ran much better at Chukyo on September 8th, when he finished third. He is improving and I believe BLAZEST is able to finish within first two on Sunday.
My third choice is DEFINITIVO, 3YO colt by EPICHARIS, who finished second in G2 UAE Derby. Since he was struggling to compete against one time winners, Yuki Uehara who trains the colt put blinker on him in Allowance at Nakayama on September 15th and it worked very well. DEFINITIVO won the Allowance at same course and same distance as this Allowance by three lengths, and the winning time was faster than Allowance for two time winners on following day. I believe he is competitive at this class.
SHIGERU KAMIKAZE prefers clockwise tracks, where he started eight times, won two races, and finished second for four times. 1,800m dirt course at Nakayama is obviously suitable for him. Though he was well beaten at Niigata on August 17th, it was first start for him since April and he needed the race. He has been trained much sharper in the morning since then, and I believe he is ready to run his race on Sunday. SHIGERU KAMIKAZE is my fourth choice.
My fifth choice is ARARE TABASHIRU. Though he was well beaten in two Graded Stakes recently, he finished second to T O PASSWORD, who would subsequently finish fifth in G1 Kentucky Derby, at Nakayama on March 23rd. And he finished second to AMMOTHYELLA, who would subsequently finish second in Haneda Hai and third in Tokyo Derby, first and second leg of Dirt Triple Crown at NAR, at Kyoto on November 5th 2023. He has run so well against runners with the highest profile, and I am sure ARARE TABASHIRU has an ability to graduate the class for two time winners.
SELECTIONS: 11. UNGAISOTEN, 6. BLAZEST, 5. DEFINITIVO, 10. SHIGERU KAMIKAZE & 12. ARARE TABASHIRU
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-4: Multiple – 11. UNGAISOTEN & 6. BLAZEST
S2-5: Multiple – 6. EMBROIDERY & 1. SENA MARINE
S2-5 Saffron Sho
Stakes for one time winning two-year-old fillies over 1,600m outer turf course at Nakayama.
My favorite is EMBROIDERY, as I regard the form of maiden at Tokyo on June 2nd highly. The winner, MILLION ROSE would finish second in the race for one time winning two-year-olds at Sapporo on August 18th. KREISLERIANA, third finisher in the maiden, would win novice at Niigata on August 10th by five lengths. And EMBROIDERY himself, second finisher in the maiden, would win novice at Niigata on July 27th by seven lengths, establishing new track record for two-year-olds at 1800m turf course. EMBROIDERY runs against her own sex in Saffron Sho and Christophe Lemaire is booked. Though this is first start for her since July 27th, she has been trained well at Ritto Training Center and I assess she has every chance to win here.
My second choice is SENA MARINE. The filly by DECLARATION OF WAR won maiden at Niigata on August 10th by four lengths, while Keita Tosaki in the irons did not use his whip at all. She is a big filly and reminiscent of HISHI AMAZON, who is from the same family as SENA MARINE and won two major races for fillies and mares in 90’s.
My third choice is GO SO FAR, who made successful racecourse debut at Niigata on August 25th, when the colt by KIZUNA made all the maiden over 1,800m. The winning time is not so impressive, it was slowly-run race and I am sure she can run faster. And I have a feeling that the trip of 1,600m is more suitable for her than the trip of 1,800m.
My fourth choice is KURINO MEI, who made successful racecourse debut at Sapporo on August 10th. The second finisher in this maiden, WATER AIRY, won novice at Sapporo on August 25th by one length and I understand we should regard the form of maiden won by KURINO MEI highly.
My fifth choice is CHIGIRI. Though she was beaten eighth in G3 Hakodate Nisai Stakes at Hakodate on July 13th, she dwelt coming out of stalls. As she breaks well, she should run much better on Sunday
SELECTIONS: 6. EMBROIDERY, 1. SENA MARINE, 9. GO SO FAR, 2. KURINO MEI & 7. CHIGIRI
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 6. EMBROIDERY & 1. SENA MARINE
S2-6: Multiple – 1. FLAMINIA & 3. ELECTRIC BOOGIE
S2-6 Sakura Bakushin O Cup
Stakes for two time winning 3YO and uppers over 1,800m inner turf course at Nakayama.
My favorite is FLAMINIA. She has run at this class for three times since she graduated the class for one time winners and finished within first five in all three starts. In Shiroi Tokubetsu at Nakayama on 8th September, the 4YO filly by MAURICE dwelt coming out of the stalls. She delivered strong challenge on homestretch, covering final 600m for 32.9 seconds, which was co-fastest in nine runners, and she finished second, beaten by 1.8 lengths. I have a feeling that she should have won that race if she broke well. FLAMINIA has started the race over 1,800m inter turf course at Nakayama for four times, won two of them and finished second twice. It is obvious that this is favorite racecourse for FLAMINIA.
My second choice is ELECTRIC BOOGIE. The colt by BRICKS AND MORTAR won the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 23rd March, and then, finished eighth in the Listed Principal Stakes, which is one of important prep races for Japanese Derby. In the Listed Principal Stakes he was beaten five lengths by the winner and I assess this is not a bad performance. He finished third in Shirakawa Tokubetsu for two time winners at Fukushima on 20th July and proved he is competitive at this class. Although he was beaten sixth in Shiroi Tokubetsu, I expect Electric Boogie to bounce back on Sunday.
My third choice is LORD REINADO, 3YO colt by REY DE ORO. While he was ordinary 2YO last year, when he started twice and was well beaten in both starts, it looks he is a different horse this year. He won novice over 1,800m at Tokyo on 16th June and won allowance for one time winners over 1,800m at Fukushima on 14th July. Although this is first time for him to complete against two time winners, he is still improving and I have a feeling that LORD REINADO should be competitive against two time winners.
My fourth choice is LUCE ROSSA. The 4YO filly by BEACH PATROL finished fourth over 1,800m at Nakayama on 8th September. As she re-produces this form on Sunday, she has a good chance to finish within first four in Sakura Bakushin O Cup.
GIRLS' LEGEND, who is a winner of allowance for one time winners over the same course and distance as Sakukra Bakushinn O Cup on 14th September, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 1. FLAMINIA, 3. ELECTRIC BOOGIE, 5. LORD REINADO, 8. LUCE ROSSA & 6. GIRLS' LEGEND
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-6: Multiple – 1. FLAMINIA & 3. ELECTRIC BOOGIE
S2-7: Multiple – 12. SATONO REVE & 14. VICTOR THE WINNER
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-6: Multiple – 1. FLAMINIA, 3. ELECTRIC BOOGIE & 5. LORD REINADO
S2-7: Multiple – 12. SATONO REVE, 14. VICTOR THE WINNER & 5. NAMURA CLAIR
S2-8: Multiple – 8. BUSHIN, 1. PEPTIDE YAMATO & 10. GABBY'S SISTER
S2-7 Sprinters Stakes
It is exciting clash between two sprinters with high profile from Hong Kong and local sprinters in the 58th running of Sprinters Stakes at Nakayama Racecourse on 29th September. VICTOR THE WINNER and MUGEN arrived at Narita Airport on 17th September and it looks both of them are enjoying new surroundings, relaxing well and eating well.
I respect VICTOR THE WINNER, who finished third in G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen at anti-clockwise track at Chukyo in March. It was a great effort and I understand clockwise track at Nakayama is more suitable for the winner of G1 Centenary Sprint at Sha Tin on 28th January. And it is an encouraging factor that Joao Moreira is booked to ride him and I expect him to finish within the first two at this race.
I reckon the strongest opponent for him in Sprinters Stakes is SATONO REVE, who is a rising star at sprint division in Japan. The lightly-raced 5YO horse by LORD KANALOA, has started nine times and won seven of them. Though he was beaten fourth in the G3 Hankyu Hai at Hanshin on 25th February, which was his seasonal debut, SATONO REVE won the Listed Shunrai Stakes at Nakayama on 14th April, G3 Hakodate Sprint Stakes at Hakodate on 9th June, and G3 Keeneland Cup at Sapporo on 25th August. It looks he has matured physically and mentally, and completed as an athlete now. And Nakayama is his favorite track, as he is unbeaten through three starts there. SATONO REVE is my favorite.
My third choice is NAMURA CLAIR, who has been running consistently against sprinters with the highest quality for four seasons. The winner of four Graded Stakes over 1,200m, who finished second in G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen in 2023 & 2024 and finished third in G1 Sprinters Stakes in 2023, was disappointing fifth in G3 Keeneland Cup at Sapporo on 25th August, however, it was the first start for the 5YO mare by MIKKI ISLE since G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen on Match 24th. I understand her fitness was only 70% to 80% at Sapporo on August 25th and she should run much better at this race.
MAMA COCHA, defending queen of Sprinters Stakes, is my fourth choice. Although the 5YO by KUROFUNE was well beaten in the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen, she did not like wet track at Chukyo on 24th March. She ran well in G2 Centaur Stakes at Chukyo on 8th September, when she finished second, and I believe she is ready to run her race in Sprinters Stakes.
My fifth choice is MAD COOL, who finished second to MAMA COCHA in last year’s G1 Sprinters Stakes and won the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen on 24th March 2024. He was well beaten both in G1 LONGINES Hong Kong Sprint in December 2023 and G1 Chairman's Sprint Prize on 28th April and I suppose he does not like overseas travel. Though this is the first start for him since April, he has been trained well at Ritto Training Centre and I believe he is fit enough to finish within first five here.
SELECTIONS: 12. SATONO REVE, 14. VICTOR THE WINNER, 5. NAMURA CLAIR, 6. MAMA COCHA & 7. MAD COOL
7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-7: Multiple – 12. SATONO REVE & 14. VICTOR THE WINNER
S2-8: Multiple – 8. BUSHIN & 1. PEPTIDE YAMATO
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-7:
Banker – 12. SATONO REVE
Selections – 14. VICTOR THE WINNER, 5. NAMURA CLAIR, 6. MAMA COCHA & 7. MAD COOL
S2-8:
Banker – 8. BUSHIN
Selections – 1. PEPTIDE YAMATO, 10. GABBY'S SISTER, 12. SOUTHERN ELF & 14. TAMAMO DAIJOKKI
S2-8 Sotobo Stakes
Stakes for three time winning 3YO and uppers over 1,200m dirt course at Nakayama.
My favorite is BUSHIN. The full brother to AUTHENTIC, winner of G1 Kentucky Derby and G1 BC Classic in 2020, has shown a glimpse of his talents. BUSHIN won the allowance race for two-time winners over the same course and distance as Sotobo Stakes by three lengths on 8th September, and the winning time, 1 minute and 10.6 seconds, is faster than standard. I have an impression that BUSHIN should become Graded Stakes performer in the near future and this is just a stepping stone.
My second favorite is PEPTIDE YAMATO, who is the most consistent runner in this field, as the 5YO horse by DREFONG, finished within the first four in last four starts at this class. PEPTIDE YAMATO finished second in the race for three time winners at Chukyo on 8th September and I think 1,200m is more suitable for him than 1,000m. Though he was beaten sixth in Sotobo Stakes in 2022, he is now a much better horse. And he has finished second over the same course and distance as this race on 26th February 2023.
My third choice is GABBY'S SISTER. The 3YO filly by APOLLO KINGDOM has started six times, two of them are turf races and the rest of them are dirt races. While she was well beaten both in two turf races, he won three races and finished second once in four dirt races. It is obvious that Gabby’s Sister prefers dirt race. And she started at Nakayama Racecourse for three times, won two of them and finished second once. Therefore, Sotobo Stakes is the ideal race for Gabby’s Sister.
SOUTHERN ELF, who finished second in Sotobo Stakes in 2023, is my fourth choice. The 5YO by PYRO finished second in the allowance races over the same course and distance as this race on 25th February and I believe 1,200m dirt course is her favourite track. Although she has not run since 20th July, she has been trained well at Miho Training Centre and I believe she is ready to run her race on Sunday.
TAMAMO DAIJOKKI, who has sharp turn of foot, is my fifth choice. This 6YO horse by HENNY HUGHES has finished within the first five in last six starts at this class.
SELECTIONS: 8. BUSHIN, 1. PEPTIDE YAMATO, 10. GABBY'S SISTER, 12. SOUTHERN ELF & 14. TAMAMO DAIJOKKI
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