 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Prix Marcel Boussac
This G1 contest for 2YO fillies – run over 1,600m – has been won by top-class Classic winners like MIESQUE, DIVINE PROPORTIONS and ZARKAVA in the past.
If there’s a future champion in this year’s race then it is likely to be ZARIGANA. She brushed aside ROSA SALVAJE and LA GUAPISIMA when showing a fine change of pace to land the G3 Prix d’Aumale over this course and distance last month. Her impressive performance was not a surprise as she had made a stunning debut when winning easily despite showing inexperience over 1,400m at Chantilly in July. As a granddaughter of Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe heroine ZARKAVA – winner of this race in 2007 – she is bred to be top-class, and she is well on the way to living up to her pedigree.
SIMMERING showed plenty of class to chase home LAKE VICTORIA in G1 Moyglare Stud Stakes over 1,400m at the Curragh, having earlier been an impressive winner of a Deauville G2 over 1,400m. She has stamina to prove but she does shape like she will stay this longer distance.
Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien has a strong team as he attempts to win this G1 prize for a record-breaking sixth time. His BEDTIME STORY landed the Listed Chesham Stakes over 1,400m at Royal Ascot by an astonishing nine-and-a-half lengths. She followed it up by beating stablemate EXACTLY in both the G3 Silver Flash Stakes at Leopardstown and the G2 Debutante Stakes at the Curragh. There were excuses for her disappointing effort when last of five behind LAKE VICTORIA – also trained by O’Brien – in the G1 Moyglare Stud Stakes over 1,400m as she pulled too hard and she finished lame.
EXACTLY hasn’t won since landing a 1,400m Leopardstown maiden in July but she has run well in hot races. After twice finishing runner-up behind BEDTIME STORY, she again found a top-class stablemate a bit too good when third behind LAKE VICTORIA in the G1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. She should be suited by tackling 1,600m for the first time.
LHAKPA comes into this race unbeaten. She had little trouble following up her debut win over 1,400m at Compiegne when successful over 1,500m at Deauville in August. This is a big step up in grade but she has potential.
SELECTIONS: 1. ZARIGANA, 2. SIMMERING, 3. BEDTIME STORY, 4. EXACTLY & 7. LHAKPA
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 1. ZARIGANA & 2. SIMMERING
S1-2: Multiple – 3. FIELD OF GOLD & 8. RASHABAR
S1-2 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere
John and Thady Gosden appear to hold strong claims of securing a first win in the G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere over 1,400m with the hat-trick seeking FIELD OF GOLD. This race has been the long-term aim for the son of KINGMAN, who since tasting defeat on his debut in a 1,400m novice at Doncaster has impressed in two subsequent starts. After running out a decisive winner of a 1,400m maiden at Newmarket the Juddmonte-owned colt showed smart battling abilities to follow that win up in the G3 Solario Stakes at Sandown. Although he has to prove as effective on soft ground he remains less exposed than many of his rivals and he can successfully continue his upward curve here.
RASHABAR showed his win in the G2 Coventry Stakes over 1,200m was no fluke when chasing home WHISTLEJACKET on his G1 debut in the Prix Morny over 1,200m last time out. The Brian Meehan-trained colt did not quite have enough pace to reach the winner on his most recent start which suggests going up in trip could bring about further improvement. With his ability to go on the conditions guaranteed, he could emulate his sire HOLY ROMAN EMPEROR, who won the race in 2006, if his stamina lasts out.
Aidan O’Brien’s best chance of winning the race for a ninth time appear to rest with HENRI MATISSE. The son of 2010 winner WOOTTON BASSETT colt showed signs of greenness when winning the G2 Futurity Stakes at the Curragh over 1,400m before throwing away his chances back at the track in the G1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes when hanging badly at a crucial stage. He will need to iron out those issues if he is to have a say here, but there is every chance that is possible given his trainer's fine record in the race.
HOUQUETOT will relish the conditions more than most with all three of his wins achieved with soft in the going description. The Christopher Head-trained colt’s latest success was gained over course and distance in the G3 Prix La Rochette, where he had rivals REVOLUTIONNAIRE and TIEGO THE FIRST in behind, which suggests another big run is in store.
MISUNDERSTOOD enters the race unbeaten having backed up his debut victory in a 1,500m maiden at Deauville with an emphatic win in the G3 Prix des Chenes over 1,600m at ParisLongchamp last time out. While this represents a drop back in trip things could play into his hands if he forces the issue up front with his stamina assured on conditions that will suit.
SELECTIONS: 3. FIELD OF GOLD, 8. RASHABAR, 7. HENRI MATISSE, 1. HOUQUETOT & 2. MISUNDERSTOOD
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 3. FIELD OF GOLD & 8. RASHABAR
S1-3: Multiple – 9. BRADSELL & 13. NO HALF MEASURES
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 3. FIELD OF GOLD
Selections – 8. RASHABAR, 7. HENRI MATISSE, 1. HOUQUETOT & 2. MISUNDERSTOOD
S1-3:
Banker – 9. BRADSELL
Selections – 13. NO HALF MEASURES, 14. BELIEVING, 4. STARLUST & 11. MAKAROVA
S1-3 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp
The G1 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp is the premier sprint held over Longchamp’s 1,000m course. Depending on ground conditions, the draw can play a big factor.
If conditions stay dry, BRADSELL may well have the perfect draw in stall 9 and, even if the showers do arrive, Archie Watson’s 4YO looks versatile enough to cope. He arrives here as the leading sprinter in Europe, having won all three of his races this season. That run began with a Listed success at Deauville in August and was followed by G1 wins in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York and the Flying Five Stakes at the Curragh, both over 1,000m. His high level of consistency and form will make him hard to beat with regular partner Hollie Doyle in the saddle.
At both York and the Curragh, BELIEVING has finished second to BRADSELL, and the George Boughey team must be hoping they can make it third time lucky. On both those occasions, BELIEVING has been seen finishing quickly and the suspicion is she needs a serious pace over 1,000m to be seen to best effect. She is a multiple winner over 1,200m, including a G3 at Chantilly on soft ground, and the slightly slower conditions than those she experienced at York and the Curragh might help her.
If there is an improving horse in the field, it could be Richard Hughes’ NO HALF MEASURES. She only has 10 starts to her name, and has won six of them, including her best performance yet when streaking clear to land the G3 Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes at Newbury last time out. Before that, she had finished a close sixth in the G3 Prix du Petit Couvert over this course and distance, clearly relishing the soft ground on both occasions. If getting similar conditions, she might be one to throw down a challenge.
STARLUST was last seen finishing behind both BRADSELL and BELIEVING in the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes, but wasn’t beaten far that day. Ralph Beckett’s colt has won on good to soft ground in the past, including in Listed company at York three starts back, and looks capable of another good effort.
Similar comments apply to Ed Walker’s mare, MAKAROVA, who was third behind the top duo BRADSELL and BELIEVING at the Curragh last month. She has winning form on soft ground and good course and distance form too, after finishing second in a G3 at ParisLongchamp back in May.
SELECTIONS: 9. BRADSELL, 13. NO HALF MEASURES, 14. BELIEVING, 4. STARLUST & 11. MAKAROVA
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 9. BRADSELL & 13. NO HALF MEASURES
S1-4: Multiple – 14. LOS ANGELES & 13. SOSIE
S1-4 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
The G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, run over 2,400m, is Europe’s richest race and features raiders from Britain, Ireland, Germany and Japan take on the French on their home turf at Longchamp.
Aidan O’Brien, who hasn’t won the race since 2016, saddles a strong contender in LOS ANGELES. The CAMELOT colt has kicked on this season picking up two Group victories, following a handy third in the G1 Derby Stakes back in June. Last time out in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes over 2,000m, when coming fourth by just over a length, you could tell he wanted a bit more of a trip, and he gets that here stepped up to 2,400m. Improvement from last time would make him a big player.
SOSIE flies the flag for French trainer Andre Fabre and is looking for his third consecutive Group win at Longchamp. Mightily impressive when winning the G1 Grand Prix de Paris over 2,400m in July, the son of SEA THE STARS followed up with a convincing win in the G2 Prix Niel over 2,400m when reversing the form with LOOK DE VEGA despite being eased up in the closing stages.
LOOK DE VEGA renews the rivalry here and will want to turn the tables after their last outing, having beaten SOSIE in June when landing the G1 Prix du Jockey Club over 2,100m. The Carlos and Yann Lerner-trained colt did pick up some course and distance form winning on his seasonal reappearance here at Longchamp over 2,000m and will be hoping for similar ground on Sunday.
AVENTURE is an interesting entry for Christophe Ferland, with Stephane Pasquier booked to ride. The pairing is yet to be beaten, having picked up the G2 Prix de Pomone over 2,500m in August the last time they teamed up. Since then, though, Maxime Guyon steered this filly to a close second to BLUESTOCKING in the G1 Prix Vermeille over 2,400m around Longchamp. With a nice low draw and Pasquier on board again this time around, she could go well.
BLUESTOCKING had an incredibly promising start to the season, including when winning the G1 Pretty Polly Stakes over 2,000m in June. Ralph Beckett’s filly has since had two attempts stepping back up to 2,400m and, with her most recent outing being a win in the G1 Prix Vermeille over 2,400m, she looks another with good claims of being in contention.
SELECTIONS: 14. LOS ANGELES, 13. SOSIE, 9. LOOK DE VEGA, 16. AVENTURE & 7. BLUESTOCKING
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 14. LOS ANGELES & 13. SOSIE
S1-5: Multiple – 7. YLANG YLANG & 11. CONTENT
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4:
Banker – 14. LOS ANGELES
Selections – 13. SOSIE, 9. LOOK DE VEGA, 16. AVENTURE & 7. BLUESTOCKING
S1-5:
Banker – 7. YLANG YLANG
Selections – 11. CONTENT, 5. SPARKLING PLENTY, 10. FALLEN ANGEL & 9. FRIENDLY SOUL
S1-5 Prix de l'Opera
The Prix de l’Opera is a G1 contest over the 2,000m trip exclusively for fillies and mares and features a host of talented entrants.
This was meant to be YLANG YLANG’s year, but so far things haven’t gone to plan. Aidan O’Brien’s filly was a G1-winning juvenile but was disappointingly beaten in both the 1,600m 1000 Guineas and G1 Oaks over 2,400m earlier this year. However, her close fourth behind superstar PORTA FORTUNA in the G1 Matron Stakes over 1,600m in September rates as possibly the best form on offer and she will be hard to beat stepped up to 2,000m with Ryan Moore on board.
CONTENT is another from the Ballydoyle stable who, unlike her stable mate, has a G1 victory to her name this season.
Aidan O’Brien’s other contender was a G3 1600m winner as a juvenile and ran with credit for most of her 3YO career, before breaking through at the top level in August. That win came in the G1 Yorkshire Oaks over 2,400m, where she stepped up in distance to win dourly. The drop back to 2,000m would be a slight worry, but her last run over this trip was a fine effort behind Arc contender BLUESTOCKING, so she’s certainly capable at this distance.
The best the French have to offer in this contest is likely to be SPARKLING PLENTY. Patrice Cottier’s filly has had a very busy campaign, which peaked with her victory in the G1 Prix de Diane over 2,100m at Chantilly in June. She then ran admirably in the G1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood over 2,000m in August, before not disgracing herself in the G1 Prix Vermeille over 2,400m at ParisLongchamp in September, and she can hit the frame here.
FALLEN ANGEL looked to have the world at her feet at the start of this season as a G1-winning juvenile, and again after winning another this year in the Irish 1000 Guineas over 1,600m in May. Karl Burke’s runner unfortunately suffered injury after the Curragh but made a fine comeback in the aforementioned Matron Stakes in September. While that was a smart effort, she is not a guaranteed stayer at this 2,000m trip, but she can still go well.
FRIENDLY SOUL’s form may be a touch below the best in this race, but she can run them close. The John & Thady Gosden’s filly only has five runs to her name, but she is a G2 winner over this 2,000m from her victory at Deauville in August, and you can’t rule her out of the frame.
SELECTIONS: 7. YLANG YLANG, 11. CONTENT, 5. SPARKLING PLENTY, 10. FALLEN ANGEL & 9. FRIENDLY SOUL
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 7. YLANG YLANG & 11. CONTENT
S1-6: Multiple – 3. TRIBALIST & 2. KINROSS
S1-6 Prix de la Foret
British raider KINROSS, who won this race in 2022 before losing his crown last year to KELINA, is coming back in the hope of regaining his title. The Ralph Beckett trained 7YO though has struggled this season but suddenly came back to form in the G2 Park Stakes over 1,400m at Doncaster, where he won easily by two lengths. He obviously is at ease at ParisLongchamp, and despite his age his recent run suggests that it would be very wrong to write him off.
The horse to beat though has to be the Andre Fabre-trained TRIBALIST. Although he last ran over this trip in 2022 when he won a Listed race at Saint-Cloud, the Godolphin owned 5YO looks a real danger in this contest. A winner of three of his four starts this season, he created a shock result when he beat the Prix Jacques le Marois winner CHARYN in the G1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp over 1,600m last month. He might not get to lead this time, but that shouldn’t be an issue as he is quite versatile.
At this point in the season, it would be wrong to dismiss POET MASTER, who surely must be better than his five and a half lengths defeat by KINROSS in the G2 Park Stakes suggests. His trainer Karl Burke is enjoying a fabulous season and judging by his victory in the G2 Minstrel Stakes over 1,400m at the Curragh in July, he could well play his part, especially if there is a fast pace.
It would be a fitting end for the soon-to-retire trainer Carlos Laffon-Parias if KELINA would come back to form and win this race again. She has enjoyed exactly the same prep as last year, with equally similar results, including a sixth place in the G1 Prix Rothschild over 1,600m and another sixth in the G1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp over 1,600m behind TRIBALIST. She does prefer a trip of 1,400m though and could spring a surprise.
A place should also be possible for KING GOLD, who always runs well after a little break and who can handle the ground.
He finished six lengths behind Charyn in the G1 Prix Jacques le Marois over 1,600m, but had EXXTRA beat when they met over 1,400m at ParisLongchamp in June. He is an outsider, but it would be no great surprise to see him involved in the finish.
SELECTIONS: 3. TRIBALIST, 2. KINROSS, 1. POET MASTER, 14. KELINA & 5. KING GOLD
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 3. TRIBALIST & 2. KINROSS
S1-7: Multiple – 1. LE TABOU & 9. SHORT FINAL
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 3. TRIBALIST, 2. KINROSS & 1. POET MASTER
S1-7: Multiple – 1. LE TABOU, 9. SHORT FINAL & 2. APAX
S1-8: Multiple – 4. BELIEVER, 14. SWIFT FLIGHT & 11. FASHION GREY
S1-7 Class 1 Handicap
A handicap on Arc Day is always going to be competitive and this renewal of the 1,300m Class 1 Handicap is no exception.
The Georges Doleuze-trained LE TABOU might be carrying top weight but goes into this race with a huge chance. Listed placed on this track last season, he was gelded in June and since has progressively improved his form. A runner-up in Deauville over 1,200m in August, he then beat a G3 winner at Chantilly over 1,200m. As he appreciates soft ground and likes to run his races from the front, he will be the horse they all have to beat.
SHORT FINAL is also a soft ground candidate. As the winner of a 1,500m handicap at the end of last season, he was heavily penalised, but has shown that he remains competitive. The trip might be a bit short for him, but in soft conditions he should still run well, especially since he always goes well after a little break.
The trip could also prove a little short for APAX, but his class could make all the difference. Fourth in the 1,600m G3 Prix Quincy at Deauville, he wasn’t beaten far on his last start in a 1,650m Listed race at Craon. He did win a 1,400m on this track in April and should have a chance.
The Fabrice Chappet-trained FREJA has been unlucky in so many of her races. However, everything came right for her last time out in the 1,400m, a major handicap for filles at mares at Deauville, where she produced her impressive trademark turn of foot to win the race in great style. In this event, she finds herself well placed in the weights and as a soft ground lover she should be more than capable of getting a place.
The Pierre Menard-trained 4YO filly KIMI ORENDA was a Listed winner over 1,400m in Germany last year when she was trained by Christophe Ferland. Since moving yards, she has been tried in a 1,400m G3 but without success. She then switched to handicap races and recently won a 1,400m handicap at ParisLongchamp. The handicappers gave her a rise in the weights for that win, but she should still be competitive, especially in soft ground.
SELECTIONS: 1. LE TABOU, 9. SHORT FINAL, 2. APAX, 11. FREJA & 5. KIMI ORENDA
7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 1. LE TABOU & 9. SHORT FINAL
S1-8: Multiple – 4. BELIEVER & 14. SWIFT FLIGHT
S1-8 Class 1 Handicap
The Class 1 Handicap over 2,000m looks like a competitive race to end the card on Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe day.
If there is one potential big improver in this field, it’s likely to be BELIEVER. Gianluca Bietolini’s colt is lightly raced, with only seven starts to his name, but has some eye-catching form. He has twice finished respectably behind Arc favourite LOOK DE VEGA, which is something none of the other contenders can say for themselves. Since those runs, he has run smartly, including when winning at ParisLongchamp over 2,100m in September, and this race should serve as a stepping stone to bigger and better things.
SWIFT FLIGHT once plied his trade in Ireland when trained by K J Condon, running mainly in very deep Irish sprint handicaps over 1,000m and 1,200m against some of the best around. Since transferring to the care of Stephane Cerulis, however, he has been tried over much further trips and has seemed to blossom. He has registered three victories for his current stable at Chantilly (1,600m), Dieppe (1,800m) and crucially, ParisLongchamp, over this course and distance. That win back in September will have set this gelding up perfectly for a go at this event.
Another contender with that all-important ParisLongchamp form is FASHION GREY. A & G Botti’s runner has spent most of his career in the care of Henri-Alex Pantall, recorded two wins for Pantall, the most recent of which coming over 2,100m at ParisLongchamp in May, and although he was below his best on stable debut in September, he can bounce back to hit the frame.
While TOLLEVAST has struggled to find winning form in his past three starts, he has not been disgraced. He hasn’t been beaten far in 2,000m, 1,800m and 1,600m events at San Sebastian, Dieppe and Fontainebleau respectively, and looks set to enjoy the return to Longchamp. He was raced twice at today’s track, finishing first and second, and can find his best form again.
Like SWIFT FLIGHT, LONDON ROYAL’s early career was spent sprinting in Ireland when trained by Ted Walsh. He has long since been with Gavin Hernon where he has steadily built himself into a sound 1,800m to 2,200m handicapper. Registering three victories for the stable, including on his most recent start over 2,000m at Saint-Cloud in September, he ought to be competitive again, especially having recently placed over this course and distance.
SELECTIONS: 4. BELIEVER, 14. SWIFT FLIGHT, 11. FASHION GREY, 7. TOLLEVAST & 6. LONDON ROYAL
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