 Expert - Brett Davis | |
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| Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts. | |
Expert Column for King Charles III Stakes Day (S1) (Brett Davis)
S1-1 Sydney Stakes
SOUTHPORT TYCOON would’ve been a runner of great interest had he secured a starting position in the G1 The Everest, so he must be considered an extremely strongly chance here. With the G1 Australian Guineas in March, and the recent G1 Manikato Stakes already in his back pocket he’s a fascinating runner to assess. It’s difficult to predict what his best racing distance is right now but he’s got all the class required and draws well. If there is a negative to highlight it’s that he’s yet to race in Sydney.
MAZU has returned in superb form this preparation which is a promising sign considering he was below par through most of last campaign. This is his class, course and distance and he’s drawn favourably in gate six with champion jockey Nash Rawiller again booked to ride. He’ll more than likely position up handy and just behind the speed and if the rain happens to fall hard, he’s right in the finish.
OVERPASS has been finely tuned for his return to racing with a pair of comprehensive trial wins at Rosehill. He’s a jump and run customer with a high cruising speed and if given the right sectionals mid race can win. The inside draw shall allow him to jump and do his thing however there’ll be some race hardened opponents chasing. Plus, with no wins at this track from nine starts alongside his name there remains an element of doubt.
THINK ABOUT IT won the G1 TAB EVEREST last year but it hasn’t been exactly smooth sailing during his preparation this time around. He settled along way back in the recent G2 Premiere Stakes before chasing honestly in the stretch off a neutral pace. He would have to find a few lengths on that performance if he’s going to be in the finish, but we know the talent is hiding in there somewhere so you’d be extremely brave to rule him out.
AIRMAN produced a career best with a win recently in the G2 Premiere Stakes but at the same time did secured all favours throughout run. A similar performance, or greater, shall be required if he’s to repeat the dose and there are whispers around to suggest he’ll go close to getting it done. The draw, jockey, distance and track conditions are all guaranteed to suit so it’s now up to him to prove he’s up to scratch.
SELECTIONS: 3. SOUTHPORT TYCOON, 6. MAZU, 1. OVERPASS, 2. THINK ABOUT IT & 4. AIRMAN
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 3. SOUTHPORT TYCOON & 6. MAZU
S1-2: Multiple – 1. I WISH I WIN & 4. BELLA NIPOTINA
S1-2 The Everest
I WISH I WIN needs no introduction and remains the equal highest rated Australian sprinter going around. Last year’s runner up shall make his second attempt at victory in this now officially branded G1 event. We know there’s the chance of him getting too far back, and in a race of this calibre every inch is crucial, but on most occasions there are zero opponents that can match his final turn of speed. He’s primed and ready to win going in third up but must stay in contact early.
BELLA NIPOTINA has developed into Australia’s equal top rated sprinter over the past 12 months with wins in the G1 Tatt’s Tiara and G1 Doomben 10,000, where she defeated I WISH I WIN. Her two recent runs, following a ten-week spell, have topped her off ideally for this mouth-watering event and the draw allows her to remain away from the fence. She’ll peal to the outside once they turn into the stretch and unleash her powerful turn of foot, and if there’s any kinks in the armour of those ahead then she’ll sail on by at the end.
STORM BOY draws nicely and shouldn’t be too quickly overlooked from that gate. He must step well for sure, but there’s a great opportunity to travel alongside GROWING EMPIRE and the pair should join I AM ME, and then likely cross. If the 3YOs, particularly under the weight for age scale, have their way for a furlong or two they’ll definitely make hay while the sunshine’s out in front. This guy’s run over the testing 1,400m of the G1 Golden Rose was excellent in defeated and he couldn’t be any fitter dropping back in trip.
GROWING EMPIRE has been touted as the next super star sprinter of the Australian turf and it’s justified as an accurate quote. At his first attempt in G1 company he raced hard on speed and was thereafter vulnerable to a superior turn of foot. The winner, SOUTHPORT TYCOON is now a multiple G1 winner himself and renowned for his power and hard-core strength over further. It’s without doubt his toughest and most challenging test but the wide draw should allow him to cross over in rhythm.
STEFI MAGNETICA shall find this race a fraction short but if they fully crank on the speed during the first half, she may drop on them with a big bang later stages. The 2024 G1 Stradbroke Handicap winner has made significant progress over the last six months and is difficult to fully assess in this cracking event. The one thing for sure is she was absolutely brilliant first up in the G2 Shorts over 1,100m, and if she backs that up she’s a genuine contender.
SELECTIONS: 1. I WISH I WIN, 4. BELLA NIPOTINA, 11. STORM BOY, 9. GROWING EMPIRE & 6. STEFI MAGNETICA
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 1. I WISH I WIN & 4. BELLA NIPOTINA
S1-3: Multiple – 11. KIMOCHI & 4. OSTRAKA
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 1. I WISH I WIN
Selections – 4. BELLA NIPOTINA, 11. STORM BOY, 9. GROWING EMPIRE & 6. STEFI MAGNETICA
S1-3:
Banker – 11. KIMOCHI
Selections – 4. OSTRAKA, 1. VEIGHT, 15. WELL TIMED & 10. WAR MACHINE
S1-3 Silver Eagle
KIMOCHI was extremely courageous winning the G3 Toy Show Quality over 1,100m first up before standing up against some of the best going around in the G1 Manikato Stakes at Moonee Valley. The 1,300m of this high-class quality event won’t be any trouble for this hard finishing mare, with her record at Randwick also reading particularly strong. She’s also capable of adapting to any track conditions on offer and is therefore labelled the hardest to defeat.
OSTRAKA has been awesome winning his two lead up events and arrives ready for the challenge of a G3 contest. He’s beaten inferior opposition to what‘s on offer today, but the way he’s achieved it has been the clear and bright shining light. In fact, the way he’s developed through this current campaign the sky could potentially be the limit, plus, cushion in the tracks hasn’t bothered him yet.
VEIGHT trialed up well leading into his return to racing but the depth of opposition in the G1 Manikato Stakes over 1,200m sorted him out quickly. That being said, he’s entitled to plenty of leeway considering he’s a previous G1 winner, with the hit out and slight rise in trip expected to suit. Dropping back to G3 classification is also on his side and he wouldn’t be competing if he wasn’t one hundred percent.
WELL TIMED put in a well-timed run last start at Randwick to cut down the leaders over the final strides. The Kerry Parker trained runner has hardly put a step wrong this campaign and it’s highly probable he’ll win again. Nash Rawiller shall be looking for cover through the early part, with a wide gate to deal with, but that’ll give him ample room in the stretch to ultimately run them down. Furthermore, there are no queries regarding wet or dry track conditions.
WAR MACHINE arrives in Sydney with a decent wrap following a super run first up at Moonee Valley over 1,200m. The 4YO son of HARRY ANGEL also won the Listed Bendigo Guineas last preparation and he did it with a minimal amount of fuss. There’s plenty in his favour from the low barrier draw so it would be wise to include him in, rather than leave him out.
SELECTIONS: 11. KIMOCHI, 4. OSTRAKA, 1. VEIGHT, 15. WELL TIMED & 10. WAR MACHINE
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 11. KIMOCHI & 4. OSTRAKA
S1-4: Multiple – 9. PRIDE OF JENNI & 10. FANGIRL
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 11. KIMOCHI, 4. OSTRAKA & 1. VEIGHT
S1-4: Multiple – 9. PRIDE OF JENNI, 10. FANGIRL & 6. CEOLWULF
S1-5: Multiple – 4. ESTADIO MESTALLA, 6. WILLAIDOW & 11. BEHTAR
S1-4 King Charles III Stakes
PRIDE OF JENNI was recently announced Australian Horse Of The Year which was primarily achieved off the back of her remarkable win in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes earlier this year. A restful spell during the winter months has been followed by three runs back this campaign, the latter of which she won. She now returns to Royal Randwick in an attempt to once again wow the crowd, and it’s very likely she’ll end up getting it done. On the flip side, there are potential pesterers that may challenge her for initial speed and conditions are expected to be much softer underfoot.
FANGIRL won this event last year with a dazzling turn of foot and in the process made some top-class thoroughbreds appear second rate. She arrives ready to defend her title following a similar type of win in the million-dollar race over 1,600m on a firm track. Whether she can plough through the likely wet track as effectively as normal remains to be seen, but there are no doubts surrounding her class and commitment when it comes to a big days racing.
CEOLWULF was a long way behind PRIDE OF JENNI in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes in April but has returned this preparation as the real deal. His first up second behind ELIYASS in the G3 Kingston Town Stakes was awesome and he coupled that up with a dominant thrashing of all comers in the G1 Epsom Handicap. Bumping into some of the best going around today at weight for age won’t be an enviable task, but he’ll thrive on the expected rain effected track.
AMELIA'S JEWEL was transferred to the powerful Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald stable mid-year and has returned with a spring in her step. Her two close up second placings in the G2 Tramway Stakes and G2 Gold Pendant have conditioned her perfectly for her third run back from a spell. We know she’s made of all the right stuff and it definitely appears as though she‘s happy within herself.
ZOUGOTCHA finished last in the small field of eight in her first run over the mile this campaign. She’d put together two outstanding efforts prior in the G1 Queen of the Turf Stakes in which she won, and was then a gallant runner up in the G1 Winx Stakes. A trip back to the trials at Randwick in early October displayed her in good light, so it’s anticipated she’ll return back to her best and the softer ground should assist.
SELECTIONS: 9. PRIDE OF JENNI, 10. FANGIRL, 6. CEOLWULF, 12. AMELIA’S JEWEL & 11. ZOUGOTCHA
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 9. PRIDE OF JENNI & 10. FANGIRL
S1-5: Multiple – 4. ESTADIO MESTALLA & 6. WILLAIDOW
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4:
Banker – 9. PRIDE OF JENNI
Selections – 10. FANGIRL, 6. CEOLWULF, 12. AMELIA’S JEWEL & 11. ZOUGOTCHA
S1-5:
Banker – 4. ESTADIO MESTALLA
Selections – 6. WILLAIDOW, 11. BEHTAR, 13. DALAALAAT & 10. OVERRIDING
S1-5 World Pool Handicap
ESTADIO MESTALLA ran an honest race first up over the insufficient journey of 1,200m and is a proper chance of winning at an each way price. He should find a mid-field tail to follow in the run and the rise in distance is just what he wants. Add to that his noted strong finishing burst, and he’s definitely a runner that should respectfully entertained.
WILLAIDOW is a lightly raced 6YO who continues to build a good horses record. He’s all about natural burning speed which is precisely what he produced to win a deep BM88 Handicap at Rosehill last start. James McDonald continues his association by again taking the ride and together they’ll be out in a hurry from the outside draw, whilst looking to cross the face of the field to lead.
BEHTAR is the x-factor in the final event of the day because he hasn’t been seen at a races for almost a year. The former French galloper had some reasonable form before arriving down under, however, most of that was over further ground. Nevertheless, he’s trialed well for Tommy Berry on two occasions and the stayers can often ping with late power first up.
DALAALAAT arrives following a good honest run behind MORAVIA last start and can be considered for the wider exotics.
He’s an 8YO now with seven wins to his name but continues racing with great heart and enthusiasm. Jason Collett has won on him three times during his honest and lengthy career and together they should run a solid race.
OVERRIDING is placed to advantage returning to 1,400m with the mile clearly testing her stamina last start. With Craig Williams to ride from the low barrier of gate three she’s likely to receive all favours in the run. She’s yet to recapture her best form this campaign but conversely not far off where she needs to be. With her record at Randwick reading excellent she’s fully deserved of respect.
SELECTIONS: 4. ESTADIO MESTALLA, 6. WILLAIDOW, 11. BEHTAR, 13. DALAALAAT & 10. OVERRIDING
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