 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
|---|---|
| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Tenno Sho Autumn (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 Tenno Sho Autumn
This is exciting renewal of G1 Tenno Sho Autumn, as the field includes six G1 winners.
EQUINOX retired at the end of the last season and many of racing fans, including myself, expected at the beginning of current season that LIBERTY ISLAND, 4YO filly by DURAMENTE, who swept Triple Tiara for 3YO fillies and finished second to EQUINOX in G1 Japan Cup in 2023, would play a leading role at middle distance division.
The first start of season for LIBERTY ISLAND was G1 Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan on March 30th and she finished third there. It was a disappointing performance as the expectation was very high, however, we were convinced to hear that she suffered desmitis on her off-fore leg during the race and relieved to know it was not a serious injury. After having a period for convalescence at Northern Farm, she returned at Mitsumasa Nakauchida’s barn in Ritto Training Center on September 18th, and has been trained beautifully since then. I am most impressed with her morning track work on Thursday 17th, when she was breezed for 1,200m and clocked 80.2 seconds, with Yuga Kawada in the irons. I believe LIBERTY ISLAND is ready to run her race on coming Sunday and she is my favourite.
My second choice is LEBENSSTIL, who has not won any G1 yet. He won G2 Sankei Sho All Comers at Nakayama on September 22nd and collected his third Graded Stakes last time out. As you read through his form, it is obvious that his performance at anti-clockwise tracks is much better than his performance at clockwise tracks. Therefore, I regard his form in G2 Sankei Sho All Comers highly, as Nakayama is a clockwise track. I feel he has now completed as an athlete and 2,000m at Tokyo, which is anti-clockwise track, is the most suitable stage for him.
My third choice is SOL ORIENS. The winner of G1 Satsuki Sho in 2023 had lost his form and displayed three disappointing performances in a row since last autumn until this spring. However, the 4YO colt by KITASAN BLACK finished second in G1 Takarazuka Kinen at Kyoto on June 23rd and I felt he bounced back. And I think Tokyo, where he started twice, won one of them and finished second once, is a suitable track for him.
BELLAGIO OPERA, winner of G1 Osaka Hai at Hanshin on March 31st, is my fourth choice. He has been running consistently at the highest level for two years and Tokyo racecourse is a suitable track for him as well. He should have a good chance to finish within the first four here.
DO DEUCE, who has won three G1s, is very good on his day, for example, he won G1 Japanese Derby in 2022, defeating EQUINOX. While I do not know, to be frankly, if coming Sunday would be his day, I think it is not a good idea to exclude him from my selections.
SELECTIONS: 12. LIBERTY ISLAND, 14. LEBENSSTIL, 6. SOL ORIENS, 1. BELLAGIO OPERA & 7. DO DEUCE
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