 Expert - Jon Lees | |
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| Jon Lees is an award-winning racing journalist who was senior news reporter for the Racing Post for 20 years, before that he was chief racing correspondent for Britain’s national news agency, the Press Association. He was named Racing Reporter of the Year at the HWPA Derby Awards in 2013. He has travelled extensively covering horse racing, attending his first Breeders’ Cup in 1994. Since 2018 Jon has been a freelance, writing for The Times, the Telegraph, At The Races and Breeders’ Cup, working in PR for Ladbrokes and Newbury racecourse, and regularly contributes to the website horseracingplanet.com. | |
Expert Column for Breeders' Cup Turf (S2-1) and Breeders' Cup Classic (S2-2) (Jon Lees)
S2-1 Breeders' Cup Turf
Hong Kong fans will be very familiar with two of the main protagonists in this 2,400m highlight. LUXEMBOURG went very close to dethroning Hong Kong champion ROMANTIC WARRIOR in the Hong Kong Cup last December when a short head separated the pair. The 5YO has won a top level race in every season he has raced, taking the G1 Coronation Cup over this trip at Epsom in May. In his two runs since he has been used as a pacesetter for last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf winner AUGUSTE RODIN, at Ascot and Leopardstown, efforts which it would be unfair to judge him on. At Del Mar he is Aidan O’Brien’s number one hope with Ryan Moore aboard and must not be underestimated.
Godolphin’s REBEL’S ROMANCE won the Turf two years ago and is a multiple G1 winner on the international stage. He added Hong Kong to his itinerary when he captured the G1 Standard Chartered Champions & Chater Cup at Sha Tin in May this year. On his previous start he had beaten a strong field to land the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan, in which SHAHRYAR was second and EMILY UPJOHN fifth. None of his six G1 wins have been achieved in Britain, a goal he fell short of achieving when third in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot, behind GOLIATH and subsequent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner BLUESTOCKING, and at Del Mar he could be vulnerable to another European.
EMILY UPJOHN looked set to add to her laurels in 2024, yet she is winless from six races. Critics have pointed the finger at jockey Kieran Shoemark who has taken over since the departure of Frankie Dettori. However it has been an underwhelming year for many in the John and Thady Gosden stable. Closer examination of the mare’s form shows it’s not all bad. She finished behind BLUESTOCKING in her two best runs and in the G1 Prix Vermeille, in which she was third, the first two were first and second in the Arc. The return of Dettori, now resident in California, can only be a benefit.
Brian Meehan has won two editions of the Turf and his latest challenger JAYAREBE is not dissimilar in profile to RED ROCKS and DANGEROUS MIDGE. The 3YO has improved all year, winning a G3 at Royal Ascot, finishing second to Irish Champion Stakes winner ECONOMICS in a G2 before winning the Prix Dollar, in which subsequent British Champion Stakes winner ANMAAT was fifth. He has a live chance of making the first five.
A US runner has won just two of the last ten editions of the Turf and if a local horse is to win the race, FAR BRIDGE could be the best credentialled. He comes into the race with two recent G1 wins to his name. He beat two in-form Godolphin challengers in the G1 Sword Dancer Stakes at Saratoga then defeated WAR LIKE GODDESS, seventh and third in the last two editions of this race, in the G1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes. Even after that he probably needs to pull out more to have a winning chance. A place in the top five would be more realistic.
SELECTIONS: 4. LUXEMBOURG, 2. EMILY UPJOHN, 5. JAYAREBE, 11. REBEL'S ROMANCE & 6. FAR BRIDGE
DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S2-1: Multiple – 4. LUXEMBOURG & 2. EMILY UPJOHN
S2-2: Multiple – 3. CITY OF TROY & 9. FIERCENESS
S2-2 Breeders' Cup Classic
A race champion trainer Aidan O’Brien and his Coolmore backers crave more than any other. There have been near-misses with GIANT'S CAUSEWAY, beaten a neck in 2000, and DECLARATION OF WAR, third beaten three quarters of a length in 2013. And there have been many flops, many of them some of the trainer’s most famous horses such as GALILEO, HAWK WING, GEORGE WASHINGTON, SO YOU THINK and RIP VAN WINKLE. But O’Brien has stopped running horses ill-equipped for US dirt, and now believes he has found the ideal candidate in CITY OF TROY. He has reigned supreme in Europe since he won the Derby and his trainer has championed him as the best horse he has ever trained. Nevertheless until he exits the starting gate there will continue to be doubts about his Classic credentials, which remained even after he completed a Breeders’ Cup-style workout at Southwell racecourse in September. The track’s Tapeta surface is not dirt and his galloping companions were vastly inferior. CITY OF TROY is an undoubted talent but how will he respond to facing the US kickback? We have to wait and see.
The US three-year-olds seem to be a better crop than last year’s group and although Kentucky Derby winner MYSTIK DAN is absent, the other two horses who fought out the photo-finish at Churchill Downs in May, plus the beaten favourite, take part in the Classic.
SIERRA LEONE lost out by a nose with Japan’s FOREVER YOUNG another nose behind in third, and an arguably unlucky one too, having fly-jumped the start and then got into a bumping match with the second. SIERRA LEONE has not added to his score, finishing third in the Belmont and Travers Stakes, whereas FOREVER YOUNG was given few months off and made short work of winning the Japan Dirt Classic in his warm-up for another trip overseas. His trainer Yoshito Yahagi did not like his draw, in gate one, but the colt has overcome worse.
In the meantime, FIERCENESS, beaten more than 24 lengths as favourite at Churchill Downs, has bounced back to defeat SIERRA LEONE in the G2 Jim Dandy Stakes and then the US’s top three-year-old filly THORPEDO ANNA in the Travers Stakes. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner will vie with CITY OF TROY for favouritism.
Although Saudi Cup winner SENOR BUSCADOR and USHBA TESORO, the Dubai World Cup winner in 2023, tackle the race in which they finished seventh and fifth last year, the best older horse challenger could be DERMA SOTOGAKE. The Japanese colt stayed on strongly to finish a length second last year at Santa Anita and since disappointing in both Saudi Arabia and Dubai, has had just one goal - the Classic.
HIGHLAND FALLS could be the dark horse in the field. The Godolphin colt didn’t make his debut until August last year but has kicked on in 2024 to win three times, most eye-catchingly when taking the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup by four lengths, with TAPIT TRICE and ARTHUR’S RIDE down the field.
SELECTIONS: 3. CITY OF TROY, 9. FIERCENESS, 6. DERMA SOTOGAKE, 1. FOREVER YOUNG & 2. HIGHLAND FALLS
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