 Expert - Brett Davis | |
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| Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts. | |
Expert Column for Melbourne Cup Day (S3) (Brett Davis)
S3-1 Schweppervescence Plate
ALDOLFITO won his first race down the Flemington straight over 1,000m before heading to Sandown at his next start, where he made it two from two. He then struck a heavy track at Caulfield and notably over raced during the early stages before finding congestion in the run down the home stretch. There’ll be pace to run at in this event and he’s drawn ideally out wide, so expect him to join in later stages and make it count.
DAMEHOOD justified her short quote first up at Ballarat by taking out the prize with relative ease under Craig Williams. She now heads to a straight track debut with plenty of opposing depth but I like the fact they’re backing her in. She’ll be looking for cover early on before edging in to the clear through the second half and I’m confident she’ll hold her own.
LAST DRUID has been freshened up for this assignment but residual fitness is available to call upon if required. He’s tactically versatile, with more race experience than most, and importantly has James McDonald to ride. He’ll be near the outside rail and is expected to race handy with the straight 1,000m appearing within his range.
VERSAILLE is one win from one start to this point with her victory coming in similar style to that of DAMEWOOD. She’s had a good rest following that win on a soft track and her work leading in appears sound. The low draw won’t help, but she’s got her fair share of talent, and I’m hoping that allows her to run a big race.
DUBLIN DOWN is twice a G3 winner from eight attempts which shouldn’t be taken for granted, despite the big weight. He’s going to be pressured early, and may end up in the inferior part of the track, but his class is already rightfully established. Zac Purton takes the ride for the astute McEvoy yard and we know that means he’ll be given every chance.
SELECTIONS: 3. ALDOLFITO, 17. DAMEHOOD, 4. LAST DRUID, 18. VERSAILLE & 1. DUBLIN DOWN
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-1: Multiple – 3. ALDOLFITO & 17. DAMEHOOD
S3-2: Multiple – 10. NEWFOUNDLAND & 15. AHURIRI
S3-2 BM96 Handicap
NEWFOUNDLAND has made quite an impression in Sydney since arriving from Europe and he’s ready to make it three wins in succession. The son of DEEP IMPACT has plenty of racing ahead of him in Australia and this is a race where he can flex some muscle. He’s been perfectly prepared by Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott and is expected to make an immediate impact during the Melbourne spring.
AHURIRI made noticeable improvement behind NEWFOUNDLAND at Warwick Farm recently which is a really good sign. She won the VRC ST Ledger over this track and trip in April and she’s on the right path to backing that up. A good draw and economical run in transit is exactly what she’ll receive with Damien Lane taking the ride, so she’s seen as a serious player for the win.
WHISKEY ON THE HILL contest the G3 Bendigo Cup at his most recent run but wasn’t quite able to get the job done. His form prior was excellent, after winning two races in succession at Caulfield, and it’s anticipated he’s ready to bounce back. He’s officially untried over the journey of 2,800m but the former European galloper should have any problems covering that additional ground.
CALL ME VEXATIOUS has enjoyed a career defining campaign under South Australian trainer Nicole Irwin and should be included in exotic discussions. He’s a fully furnished stayer these days and a winner of three of his past five starts so there won’t be any fitness concerns. Running 2,800m strongly at this level is an area of concern but he races handy to the speed and doesn’t like to give in.
STEEL BLAZE was quite competitive in the G3 St Ledger at Randwick in October and is now looking for the distance of 2,800m. He hasn’t been a prolific winner in his career but he’s a good honest contributor nearly every time he goes around. A light weight, big spacious track and long home straight give him the opportunity to work in to the finish at big odds.
SELECTIONS: 10. NEWFOUNDLAND, 15. AHURIRI, 7. WHISKEY ON THE HILL, 11. CALL ME VEXATIOUS & 16. STEEL BLAZE
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-2: Multiple – 10. NEWFOUNDLAND & 15. AHURIRI
S3-3: Multiple – 8. APULIA & 5. ARRAN BAY
S3-3 Furphy Plate (Melbourne Cup Day Plate)
APULIA was excellent first up at Moonee Valley over 1,500m after a long winter spell and must be respected up in trip. Last year VRC Derby runner up didn’t fire during his autumn preparation but he appears back to his old self this time in. He should secure a lovely run in behind a genuine and necessary speed which shall allow him to show his class at the end. There’s always hesitation backing stayers second up but this stable is capable of ironing those potential issues out.
ARRAN BAY shall be forced to roll forward from the wide gate but that shouldn’t bother him too much.
He generally enjoys being in amongst the action early before flattening for the run home at full pelt. His effort when second recently in the listed Sale Cup was a perfect example of his tenacious approach, so he can’t be overlooked.
MAKRAM is a three-time winner at Flemington and ready to perform near his best fourth run up.
He’s a query at the distance, however, he found the line quite well over the shorter trip at Sale recently in the Cup. Craig Williams is riding in scintillating form at the moment and they’ve had plenty of experience together in the past.
EARL OF TYRONE hasn’t done much racing over the last few years but you wouldn’t have realised it following his excellent return in the listed Seymour Cup. It was his first Australian start and jockey Ethan Brown made full use of the inside draw to power home along the rail. He’s draw well again and can only be further improve on his European form, with the step up in distance a plus.
CAFE MILLENIUM heads to Melbourne for his down south debut after a solid closing third at Randwick last start. He hasn’t won for a while and this might be out of his depth but he’s moving well in the mornings and ready to win. Star Sydney apprentice Zac Lloyd takes the reins from an inside gate and for those reasons alone, he goes in.
SELECTIONS: 8. APULIA, 5. ARRAN BAY, 9. MAKRAM, 6. EARL OF TYRONE & 10. CAFE MILLENIUM
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-3: Multiple – 8. APULIA & 5. ARRAN BAY
S3-4: Multiple – 2. BUCKAROO & 1. VAUBAN
S3-4 Melbourne Cup
BUCKAROO is in career best form and another fantastic opportunity arises for former Hong Kong Champion jockey Joao Moreira to win the G1 Melbourne Cup. The former French galloper picked up his first Australian G1 win in the Underwood Stakes over 1,800m, and he achieved it with a powerful turn of foot. With Joao Moreira again behind the wheel in the G1 Caulfield Cup he charged home from out of the pack, but narrowly went down to DUKE DE SESSA on a genuine leaders bias track. Running out a strong 3,200m is a challenge for many, and he’s certainly part of that discussion, but all other factors point towards a victory in the great race.
VAUBAN arrived in Australia last year with a strong wrap from Europe but didn’t fire after starting favourite and covering ground in Australia’s great race. This time around, the 7YO arrives with a more seasoned record on the flat following a G2 win at York, and a gallant second in the recent G1 Irish St Ledger at the Curragh. We all know the northern hemisphere stayers are superior to those bred in Australia, so he’s very deserving of his opportunity to atone. He’s settled in well and there’s no reason to suspect he won’t run a better race.
ONESMOOTHOPERATOR really had the Australian media and punters talking following his awesome destruction of the field in the G3 Geelong Cup over 2,400m. The Brian Ellison trained 7YO also ran in the Ebor Handicap at York where he fished seventh, right alongside SEA KING who finished sixth. This fellow is proven over the 3,200m with a win and multiple placings, primarily on synthetic tracks, completed in the past. He’s well-seasoned and trained on exceptionally well under the rays of the bright Australian spring sun.
ZARDOZI was involved in a fascinating battle against LAND LEGEND in the G1 Metropolitan a month ago but ultimately came off second best. The margin at the end was only slender and importantly last year’s G1 Victorian Oaks winner is now peaking for this coveted blue ribbon event. She’s one of only a half dozen winning chances in this year’s addition of the G1 Melbourne Cup, and superbly weighted as a previous G1 winner at the track.
SEA KING was extremely impressive at his first Australian performance where he effortlessly blitzed a solid field in the Bendigo Cup over 2,400m. The 6YO son by SEA THE STARS ran a solid and competitive race in the Ebor Handicap at York, prior to heading down under, which is a renowned form reference for any future staying race. A change of scenery, race track and far more superior opposition are now on the table to overcome, but it’s sounding like there’s ample confidence around.
SELECTIONS: 2. BUCKAROO, 1. VAUBAN, 13. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR, 14. ZARDOZI & 15. SEA KING
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-4: Multiple – 2. BUCKAROO & 1. VAUBAN
S3-5: Multiple – 1. BOSUSTOW & 7. BIG SWINGER
S3-5 The Amanda Elliott
BOSUSTOW can’t be too quickly dismissed in this listed race for the 3YO’s and he’ll be sent out at double figure price. The top weight and wide barrier look ugly on paper, but with plenty of early speed right across the draw he’ll snag back and then be produced late. His effort recently in the G3 Red Anchor Stakes was a quality performance on the day and I expect him to run a solid race.
BIG SWINGER has only been to the races twice and comfortably won both provincial events at Ballarat. It’s another top class ride for jockey Craig Williams and the pair are on the cusp of making it three from three. This is a different assignment and new challenge ahead today however and I think he’ll handle it well, but I’m prepared to shop for value with the proven class.
EXTREMELY HARDYS has blistering gate speed and the Sydney 3YO filly is expected to jump and run at pace. She’s drawn to push up comfortably from gate 3 which shall allow her to absorb the environment and big spacious track. What she’ll have to offer at this level for the first time remains the unanswered question, but I don’t think she’ll throw in the towel to quick.
KOMODO DRAGON is another Sydney filly with scope to run well and again the low draw appears key. James McDonald has interestingly dropped off to ride BOSUSTOW, but that appears due to the light weight. Nevertheless, she’s done little wrong in her five start career and she’ll love the reduction in weight.
CHEWING GUM performed nicely at her two opening runs where she won first up at Geelong before placing at Sandown. However, it’s was her run at Caulfield that caught the eye when she rocketed home from a long way back. Her recently exposed turn of foot suggested she might be something special, so I’d be paying her a decent amount of respect.
SELECTIONS: 1. BOSUSTOW, 7. BIG SWINGER, 5. EXTREMELY HARDYS, 9. KOMODO DRAGON & 8. CHEWING GUM
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-5: Multiple – 1. BOSUSTOW & 7. BIG SWINGER
S3-6: Multiple – 9. MISS ARIA & 5. AVIATRESS
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S3-5: Multiple – 1. BOSUSTOW, 7. BIG SWINGER & 5. EXTREMELY HARDYS
S3-6: Multiple – 9. MISS ARIA, 5. AVIATRESS & 12. FANCIFY
S3-7: Multiple – 11. MARBLE ARCH, 12. WARNIE & 3. RHEINBURG
S3-6 The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes
MISS ARIA hasn’t missed a top four finish in her last ten starts which highlights her impeccable depth and consistency. She can sometimes race handy, but prefers to settle back, before unleashing her explosive turn of power and speed. Her recent form out of the G2 Tristarc Stakes is near the best competing in this event, with her run prior over this track and trip a career high performance.
AVIATRESS announced herself as an exciting progressive talent last start with a comprehensive win in the G3 Northwood Plume Stakes at Caulfield over 1,200m. With an overall win strike rate of five wins from ten starts it’s clear that she’s risen to an entirely new level. With previous experience at famous Flemington already under her hat she’s likely to be right in the hunt again, despite the rise in trip.
FANCIFY is in the top echelon of lightly race horses competing in South Australia and she’s ready to step up to this class. She’s already a previous winner over this exact course and distance when she won a BM78 race for mares in June. She’s tactically versatile, but proven to be most effective when she can lead, and if given too much control in front could make the opposition pay.
COMRADE ROSA came to Melbourne from Brisbane in July in preparation for a long prosperous spring campaign. She’s already partaken in three Melbourne events and gradually improved with experience and comfort each time. Her recent third behind UNCLE BRYN and PLENTY OF AMMO at Flemington was an excellent run in defeat, and a potent form reference ever since.
MOLLYNICKERS has been out of the winners list for quite a while but she appears to have returned in good form. Her two runs back this campaign have been solid and inconclusive, particularly last start, after she was badly held up at the 300m point in the straight. She’ll go around a double figure price but she’s a viable option for exotics.
SELECTIONS: 9. MISS ARIA, 5. AVIATRESS, 12. FANCIFY, 6. COMRADE ROSA & 13. MOLLYNICKERS
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-6: Multiple – 9. MISS ARIA & 5. AVIATRESS
S3-7: Multiple – 11. MARBLE ARCH & 12. WARNIE
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S3-6:
Banker – 9. MISS ARIA
Selections – 5. AVIATRESS, 12. FANCIFY, 6. COMRADE ROSA & 13. MOLLYNICKERS
S3-7:
Banker – 11. MARBLE ARCH
Selections – 12. WARNIE, 3. RHEINBURG, 14. IS IT ME & 8. MERIDIUS
S3-7 BM90 Handicap
MARBLE ARCH got to far back last start at Caulfield when it was extremely difficult to make any ground. Her win prior at Morphettville in South Australia was however explosive, when she settled at the tail early before swooping with a rush from down back. She possesses plenty of quality so be aware of her presence, because we haven’t seen the best of her yet.
WARNIE made the trip from Ireland to Australia during the last twelve months and he didn’t let anyone down first up. He settle mid-field over the 1,200m before chugging home with venom through the later stages to impressively score. He’ll be better for the run along with the step up in trip to 1400m, so it’ll be exciting to see what he brings.
RHEINBURG can push up and hold a position early which creates his chance to box seat in the run.
He’s best when kept fresh and that’s exactly where he’s at following a tough run of the track last start.
He’s a five time winner over this particular distance and the man who’s riding needs no introduction to the show.
IS IT ME shall require a good pace to do her thing but with the long home straight on offer she’ll have time to gather speed. She’s proven at 1,400m and has a great association with rider Celine Gaudray which should stand for plenty in the end. It’s her first crack at this level, which is the ultimate challenge, but it’s expected she’ll stand up and perform.
MERIDIUS got along way back first up at Caulfield but the run was still most encouraging in defeat.
He’s a winner previously over this course and trip and must be considered with his outstanding record second up. A wide draw and possible lack of pace maybe go against him but he’ll be hitting the line hard nevertheless.
SELECTIONS: 11. MARBLE ARCH, 12. WARNIE, 3. RHEINBURG, 14. IS IT ME & 8. MERIDIUS
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