Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

 

Expert Column for Queen Elizabeth II Cup Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)

 

S1-1     2yo Newcomer

 

Trainers tend to select turf races between 1,600m to 2,000m at Kyoto or Tokyo in October and November as the first start for talented 2YO in their stables. It is very interesting for racing fans to find future stars lurking in the field of maiden races at this time.

 

My favorite is TROIS VALLEES trained by Tatsuya Yoshioka. The colt by AL AIN, winner of G1 Satsuki Sho and G1 Osaka Hai, is half-brother to LES PLANCHES, who finished second to SATONO DIAMOND in G3 Kirasagi Sho. His was breezed on Saturday 2nd November at Ritto Training Center and it was very impressive, as he covered final furlong for 11.3 seconds, despite the track was heavy. He was breezed again on Wednesday 6th November with Cristian Demuro in the irons and it was once again so much impressive. I am sure TROIS VALEES is in top condition and has a good chance to make successful racecourse debut on Sunday.

 

My second choice is ECORO DINOS trained by Ryuji Okubo. The colt by KITASAN BLACK is half-brother to HERMETICIST, who won four turf races at JRA. His workout on Wednesday 30th October at Ritto Training Center was very eye-catching, as he covered final furlong for 11.0 seconds. He has a big action and sharp turn of foot. In addition, he has combative spirit. And it is encouraging factor that Ryan Moore is booked for him on Sunday.

 

My third choice is JUNE NO LOOK. She is by REAL STEEL, who is sire of FOREVER YOUNG, who finished third in G1 Breeders' Cup Classic last Saturday. She was breezed for four furlongs at uphill track at Ritto Training Center on October 27th and clocked 51.1 seconds, which is faster than standard time. And she was breezed on woodchip course on November 6th and she covered final furlong for 11.1 seconds. I think she is ready to run her race on Sunday. 

 

My fourth choice is LORD ARDITO and it is by DURAMENTE. He has been trained well at Ritto Training Center since middle of October and he has becoming sharper and sharper every week. While young horses by DURAMENTE tend to have difficult temperament, LORD ARDITO is gentle and straightforward. 

 

SELECTIONS: 5. TROIS VALLEES, 10. ECORO DINOS, 3. JUNE NO LOOK & 6. LORD ARDITO

 

1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 5. TROIS VALLEES & 10. ECORO DINOS
S1-2: Multiple – 8. STONES & 1. CULMINALE

 

S1-2     3yo and up 1 win

 

My favorite is STONES, the colt by DURAMENTE, was bought at yearling session of JRHA Select Sale in 2022 for 300,000,000 yen, approximately HK$14.93 million. He made successful racecourse debut at Hanshin on December 10th 2023, when he won maiden for unraced 2YOs, despite losing a shoe. And then, he was beaten fifth in LR Wakagoma Stakes at Kyoto on January 20th 2024 and hairline fracture was found in his hind leg after the post-race examination. It took nine months to recover from the injury and he reappeared at racecourse on October 19th, when he finished third in Allowance for one-time winners at Niigata. It is obvious that he needed the race and his morning track works are much sharper in recent weeks. I assess STONES is ready to run his race on Sunday.

 

My second choice is CULMINALE, the half-brother to YOHO LAKE, winner of G2 Nikkei Shinshun Hai and G3 Naruo Kinen. CULMINALE has been growing slower than his brother and won maiden at Kokura on June 30th, which was his seventh start. Since then, he started two races at the class for one-time winners and finished fourth in both races. I assess they are good efforts and believe he is competitive running against one-time winners. I believe Christophe Lemaire would make a good use of the strong late kick of CULMINALE on Sunday.

 

My third choice is STELLA CROWN. The filly is by RULERSHIP, who won G1 Queen Elizabeth ll Cup in 2012, and is from same family as KISEKI, winner of G1 Kikka Sho in 2017. When STELLA CROWN finished second in LR Wasurenagusa Sho at Hanshin on April 7th, we thought she would be Graded Stakes performer soon. However, she ran poorly twice at Hakodate in June and I assess she did not like the track at Hakodate Racecourse. After having four months summer break, she finished second in Allowance for one-time winners at Kyoto on October 26th and it was impressive performance. I believe STELLA CROWN has every chance to finish within first three here.

 

My fourth choice is SHONAN GACHI. The colt by DURAMENTE struggled to collect his first win and won Novice at Sapporo on August 18th, which was his seventh start. I have a feeling that the late bloomer is now improving and 2,200m outer turf track at Kyoto is more suitable for him than tight track at Sapporo.  

 

My fifth choice is SKY SURVEY. The colt by KITASAN BLACK is half-brother to VICTIPHARUS, winner of G2 Spring Stakes. He is a very good-looking horse and the connections have been having high hopes for him. He has not met the expectations yet, though, I believe he is able to hit the board on Sunday.  

 

SELECTIONS: 8. STONES, 1. CULMINALE, 5. STELLA CROWN, 12. SHONAN GACHI & 13. SKY SURVEY

 

2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 8. STONES & 1. CULMINALE
S1-3: Multiple – 1. MARBLE MOUNTAIN & 7. HRUNGNIR

 

S1-3     3yo and up 2 wins

 

My favorite is MARBLE MOUNTAIN. While his sire, SOLDIER CALL was a sprinter, who won G2 Flying Childers Stakes and G3 Prix d’ Arenberg, both of which are races over 1,000m, MARBLE MOUNTAIN has won two races over 1,800m. I understand the father and son have different temperament. The son is calm and quiet. While the son does not have rapid acceleration, which father had, the son has sustainable speed, which father did not have. I regard his form highly, when he won Allowance for one-time winners at Niigata on October 14th by five lengths, as winning time, 1 minute and 52.4 seconds, was faster than standard. And he covered final three furlong for 37.7 seconds, which is the quickest in 10 runners and 0.7 seconds quicker than the second quickest runner. I have a feeling that MARBLE MOUNTAIN is able to graduate the class for two-time winners easily.

 

My second favorite is HRUNGNIR. The colt by ISLA BONITA is half-brother to ELIZABETH TOWER, winner of G2 Turip Sho. He won maiden for unraced 2YOs at Hanshin on December 3rd 2022 and Allowance for one-time winners at Chukyo on February 5th 2023. It was expected HRUNGNIR should be a Classic contender, however, he had a training setback and sidelined for seven months. He returned at racecourse in September 2023 and has run four times since then. Although he has not collected his third win yet, he finished 3rd in Allowance for two-time winners at Kyoto on June 22nd. It was a good effort and I am impressed that he is bouncing back. 

 

My third choice is KURFRUST. The 3YO colt by KIZUNA, who made racecourse debut on October 29th 2023, struggled to collect his first win and he finally won novice at Nakayama on March 30th, which was his eighth start. Since then, he has been running like a different horse. He won Allowance for one-time winners at Kyoto on May 12th and finished third in Allowance at Kyoto on October 26th, despite it was first start for him since May. Ryan Moore is booked for him and I believe KURFRUST has a good chance to finish within first three on Sunday.

 

My fourth choice is OVER THE DREAM. The 4YO colt is consistent runner as a principal, as he finished within first four for 11 times in last 14 starts. It is out of his character that OVER THE DREAM was beaten 12th in Allowance for two-time winners at Chukyo on September 21st. The causes are clear, as he jumped from the widest draw and was forced wide trip all way through. I understand we should forget the poor performance in last time out.

 

My fifth choice is PATIENT SIEN, who won Allowance for one-time winners at Kyoto on October 19th by three lengths.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. MARBLE MOUNTAIN, 7. HRUNGNIR, 3. KURFRUST, 8. OVER THE DREAM & 11. PATIENT SIEN

 

3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 1. MARBLE MOUNTAIN & 7. HRUNGNIR
S1-4: Multiple – 7. HERMODR & 3. TAISEI WARRIOR

 

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3:   
Banker – 1. MARBLE MOUNTAIN
Selections – 7. HRUNGNIR, 3. KURFRUST, 8. OVER THE DREAM & 11. PATIENT SIEN
S1-4:   
Banker – 7. HERMODR
Selections – 3. TAISEI WARRIOR, 12. PROMISING STAR, 5. SHINEN & 8. DANON SWITCH

 

S1-4     3yo and up 2 wins

 

My favorite is HERMODR. The colt is by MAURICE and his second dam is WIND IN HER HAIR. It means he is closely related to DEEP IMPACT, legend of horse racing in Japan. He won Allowance for one-time winners at Chukyo on August 18th and finished second in Allowance for two-time winners at Chukyo on September 29th. I regard his form in the last time out highly, as it was first attempt for him to compete against two-time winners and he completed the 1,400m dirt race for 1 minute and 23.4 seconds, which is quicker than standard. The jockey is switched from Yoshihito Nagaoka to Cristian  Demuro for Sunday and I am sure this could be a factor.

 

My second choice is TAISEI WARRIOR. The 4YO colt has run 16 times since he made racecourse debut two years ago, and 15 of them are races over 1,600m or further, it means he ran the race over 1,400m for the first time at Kyoto on October 13th and finished second in Kameoka Tokubetsu, stakes for two-time winners. He tracked leaders from third position comfortably and covered final three furlongs for 37.7 seconds, which was the fourth quickest in nine runners. I have an impression that 1,400m is the best trip for TAISEI WARRIOR.

 

My third choice is PROMISING STAR. He won Allowance for one-time winners at Kyoto on May 4th and finished sixth in Allowance at Chukyo on September 29th. I assess his performance in Allowance last time out was not bad one, as it was first start since May and it was obvious that he needed the run. And it was first attempt for him to compete against two-time winners. He collected both of two wins at Kyoto and I understand Kyoto is his favorite course.

 

My fourth choice is SHINEN. The 5YO horse is from the same family as SONGLINE and DEIRDRE, both of which are multiple G1 winners. He won Allowance for one-time winners at Chukyo on September 28th and finished fourth in Kameoka Tokubetsu, stakes for two-time winners at Kyoto on October 13th. He was beaten by TAISEI WARRIOR in Kameoka Tokubetsu and I understand this form should be regarded highly. I think SHINEN has a good chance to finish within first four on Sunday.

 

My fifth choice is DANON SWITCH. He won novice at same course and same distance as this race on October 15th 2023, using devastating late kick. As he re-produces this form on Sunday, I believe he has a chance to finish within first five here. 

 

SELECTIONS: 7. HERMODR, 3. TAISEI WARRIOR, 12. PROMISING STAR, 5. SHINEN & 8. DANON SWITCH

 

4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 7. HERMODR & 3. TAISEI WARRIOR
S1-5: Multiple – 2. MUSEUM MILE & 7. YAMANIN BOUCLIER

 

S1-5     Kigiku Sho

 

Kigiku Sho is stakes for one time winning 2YO over 2,000m inner turf course at Kyoto. Second finisher in Kigiku Sho in 2019 was POTAGER, who would win G1 Osaka Hai in 2022, and winner of Kigiku Sho in 2021 was JUSTIN PALACE. who would win G1 Tenno Sho Spring in 2023. Future stars could be hidden in this year’s field of Kigiku Sho.

 

My favorite is MUSEUM MILE by LEONTES. Although he was beaten third in maiden at Chukyo on August 24th, he looked plump at parade ring and I felt he needed the race. And his chance in the maiden disappeared when he dwelt coming out of stalls. MUSEUM MILE looked much better in parade ring in prior to novice at Kyoto on October 6th, and ran like a different horse in fact. He broke well, took third position easily, and draw clear to win by a length. It is an impressive performance and I felt this horse should be competitive at higher class. I reckon MUSEUM MILE could be a future star. And it is good news to hear that Christian Demuro, who won two races at Kyoto on October 26th and six races at Tokyo on October 27th, is booked for him. 

 

The strongest opponent for MUSEUM MILE in Kigiku Sho is YAMANIN BOUCLIER. Although the big and leggy colt by KITASAN BLACK won maiden for unraced 2YOs at Kyoto on October 20th, he looked still very green and I think he leaned many things from his first start. I assess YAMANIN BOUCLIER has a bright future and he is my second choice.

 

My third choice is JUN RAIDEN, who won maiden for unraced 2YOs at Kokura on July 20th and finished third in LR Hagi Stakes at Kyoto on October 26th. I felt that the trip of Hagi Stakes, 1,800m, was too short for him and extra one furlong in Kigiku Sho should help him. And Ryan Moore is booked for him and I expect he may change this lazy horse dramatically.

 

My fourth choice is CURREN WRAP STAR, who won maiden over 2,000m at Chukyo on August 31st by two lengths. While it was impressive performance, I think softish track at Chukyo on August 31st might help the colt by RULERSHIP. Even though the good track is expected at Kyoto on coming Sunday, I think he has a good chance to finish within first four. 

 

My fifth choice is SHONAN BALDR who won maiden at Sapporo on August 18th. He has been trained at Ritto beautifully since then and I am impressed with his breeze on October 24th, when he clocked 81.6 seconds for six furlongs, with Kenichi Ikegami in the irons. I am sure he is improving.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. MUSEUM MILE, 7. YAMANIN BOUCLIER, 4. JUN RAIDEN, 6. CURREN WRAP STAR & 3. SHONAN BALDR

 

5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 2. MUSEUM MILE & 7. YAMANIN BOUCLIER
S1-6: Multiple – 1. SAIMON XANADU & 12. OMEGA TUXEDO

 

S1-6     Lucky Lilac Cup

 

Lucky Lilac Cup is stakes for three time winning 3YOs and upper. LUCKY LILAC is winner of G1 Queen Elizabeth ll Cup, feature race on November 10th at Kyoto, in 2019 and 2020.

 

My favorite is SAIMON XANADU. The 4YO colt finished second in Tsurugajo Tokubetsu at Fukushima on July 6th and third in Akaitorino Musume Cup at same course and same distance as this race on October 13th. Those forms prove that he is one of the most consistent runners in the field. In addition, it was revealed after the race that he lost a shoe during last start. As there are several runners who has quick early speed, it is expected that the tempo of race is strong and it should help SAIMON XANADU, who has sharp late kick. I believe the time has come for him to run well on Sunday.

 

My second choice is OMEGA TUXEDO, who finished second in Amanohashidate Stakes at same course and same distance as this race on June 16th and finished second again in Uchibo Stakes at Nakayama on September 22nd. Although OMEGA TUXEDO disappointed punters who supported him as favorite in Kannazuki Stakes at Tokyo on October 19th when he was beaten sixth, I understand the distance of Kannazuki Stakes, 2,100m, was too long for him, and believe he should run his race in Lucky Lilac Cup over 1,800m. 

 

Another consistent runner in the field is HENNY TYPHOON, who finished third in Amanohashidate Stakes at same course and same distance as this race on June 16th, fourth in Satsuma Stakes at Kokura on June 30th and third in Furumachi Stakes at Niigata on August 30th. HENNY TYPHOON stumbled and unseated his rider soon after the break in JRA 70th Anniversary Stakes at Chukyo on September 16th. It is fortunate that both of the horse and rider were unhurt. He has started at Kyoto for three times and finished within first three in all of them. I believe HENNY TYPHOON finishes within first three on Sunday.

 

There is a couple of interesting emerging force in the field of Lucky Lilac Cup and one of them is RUDESHEIM, who won Allowance for one-time winners at Chukyo on September 8th by five lengths and Allowance for two-time winners at Chukyo on September 29th by two lengths. It looks that the 3YO colt hides another gear and could be competitive at this class. RUDESHEIM is my fourth choice.

 

BOLD ZONE, another emerging force who won Allowance for two-time winners at Tokyo on October 6th by three lengths, is my fifth choice.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. SAIMON XANADU, 12. OMEGA TUXEDO, 4. HENNY TYPHOON, 13. RUDESHEIM & 7. BOLD ZONE

 

6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 1. SAIMON XANADU & 12. OMEGA TUXEDO
S1-7: Multiple – 12. SCINTILLATION & 11. STUNNING ROSE

 

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 1. SAIMON XANADU, 12. OMEGA TUXEDO & 4. HENNY TYPHOON
S1-7: Multiple – 12. SCINTILLATION, 11. STUNNING ROSE & 7. REGALEIRA
S1-8: Multiple – 12. RICHARS BAROWS, 9. SIMPLY AWESOME & 7. MOZU ANTARES

 

S1-7     Queen Elizabeth II Cup

 

Queen Elizabeth II Cup, is championship race for fillies and mares, taken place at Kyoto Racecourse on November 10th. 3YO fillies with the highest quality meet with older fillies/mares with the highest quality for the first time at this race. Among 20 horses who finished 1st and 2nd in last 10 running of Queen Elizabeth II Cup, only four of them were 3YOs. It should be wise to select older fillies/mares from the past tendency.

 

My favorite is SCINTILLATION, 5YO mare by LORD KANALOA. While she has been regarded highly by the connections from day one, it has taken more time to mature than the connections had expected. She is now 5YO and has become full-fledged eventually. SCINTILLATION won Niigata Nippo Sho, stakes for three-time winners at Niigata on August 3rd, and then, finished second in G2 Fuchu Himba Stakes at Tokyo on October 14th. I regard her form in Fuchu Himba Stakes highly by some reasons. The winner was BREDE WEG, who is winner of Queen Elizabeth II Cup in 2023, and third finisher was MASKED DIVA, who finished second in G1 Shuka Sho in 2023 and third in G1 Victoria Mile in 2024. It was obviously quality field. And she covered final three furlongs for 32.8 seconds, which was the co-fastest in 15 runners, and I am impressed to find she is getting much sharper now. I reckon SCINTILLATION is now competitive running against fillies and mares with the highest quality.

 

My second choice is the 5YO mare STUNNING ROSE. Though she is a winner of G1 Shuka Sho in 2022, she lost her form since then and has been running poorly in 6 races in a row. However, her performance in G3 Queen Stakes at Sapporo on July 28th gave me an impression that she is now bouncing back. While she finished sixth, she was beaten only for one and quarter of lengths by the winner. And the winner carried 51kg, 112lb, while STUNNING ROSE carried 57kg,126lb. As she is getting back into form, I believe she has a good chance to run well on Sunday.

 

My third choice is REGALEIRA, 3YO filly by SUAVE RICHARD. When she won G1 Hopeful Stakes last December, defeating SHIN EMPEROR, we thought she was a special horse and would win major races in 2024. In fact, she has been disappointing so far this year, however, she is a class horse and I am not surprised if she revives dramatically on Sunday.  

 

My fourth choice is SHINRYOKUKA, 4YO filly by SATONO DIAMOND. As she re-produces her form when she won G3 Niigata Kinen at Niigata on September 1st defeating colts and horses, I think she has a good chance to finish within first four here.

 

My fifth choice is HARPER, who finished third in Queen Elizabeth II Cup twelve months ago.

 

SELECTIONS: 12. SCINTILLATION, 11. STUNNING ROSE, 7. REGALEIRA, 8. SHINRYOKUKA & 14. HARPER

 

7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 12. SCINTILLATION & 11. STUNNING ROSE
S1-8: Multiple – 12. RICHARS BAROWS & 9. SIMPLY AWESOME

 

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-7:   
Banker – 12. SCINTILLATION
Selections – 11. STUNNING ROSE, 7. REGALEIRA, 8. SHINRYOKUKA & 14. HARPER
S1-8:   
Banker – 12. RICHARS BAROWS
Selections – 9. SIMPLY AWESOME, 7. MOZU ANTARES, 5. TERA STELLAR & 6. ISA CHIL SEASIDE

 

S1-8     Doncaster Cup

 

Doncaster Cup is stakes for two time winning 3YOs and upper. The distance of Doncaster Cup at Kyoto is 1,400m and it is a race for sprinters and milers.

 

My favorite is RICHARD BAROWS. He made a racecourse debut at Hanshin and he was supported as favourite in seven runners’ field. However, he was beaten fifth there and struggled to collect his first win since then. Arter failing to win in six races, RICHARD BAROWS won novice at Kyoto on May 12th 2024 and collected his first win at last. While the distance of maiden was 2,000m, distance of novice on May 12th was 1,200m and it is obvious that RICHARD BAROWS is not a stayer. Since then, he started for three times and distance of those three races was 1,400m. He won Allowance for one-time winners at Kyoto on June 16th, finished third in Chukyo Suponichi Sho for two-time winners at Chukyo on August 18th, and finished second in Kuwana Tokubetsu for two-time winners at Chukyo on September 16th. It is now proved that 1,400m is ideal trip for him and he is competitive at the class for two-time winners. 

 

My second choice is SIMPLY AWESOME, who finished third in a race for two-time winners at Chukyo on September 16th, in which he finished one and half lengths behind RICHARD BAROWS. The 4YO colt by BIG ARTHUR finished third in a race for two-time winners at same course and same distance as this race on June 28th as well and I assess he has an ability to graduate this class. SIMPLY AWESOME was breezed together with BLOW THE HORN, who is trained by same trainer, at Ritto on October 26th and worked as well as the winner of G1 Takarazuka Kinen. I believe he is in top condition.

 

My third choice is MOZU ANTARES, who finished second in Allowance for two-time winners at same course and same distance as this race on October 26th. This is her third start after having summer break for six months and I feel she is now 100% fit after having two prep races. 

 

Although TERA STELLAR ran poorly in recent two starts, the 4YO colt by MAURICE has finished within first four in eight races at this class and should have an ability to compete well against two-time winners. I am not surprised if he finishes within first four in Doncaster Cup. 

 

ISA CHIL SEASIDE, who finished fourth in a race for two-time winners at Nakayama on September 28th, is my fifth choice.

 

SELECTIONS: 12. RICHARS BAROWS, 9. SIMPLY AWESOME, 7. MOZU ANTARES, 5. TERA STELLAR & 6. ISA CHIL SEASIDE

 

 

 

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