Expert - Mark van Deventer

Mark van Deventer has been refining his speed figures for thoroughbred racehorses over nearly 40 years. He has long been intrigued by the intellectual puzzle of form study. He uses the insights gained from time-based analysis to convey well-researched handicapping opinions. Mark worked as a TV presenter on the specialist racing channel Tellytrack, and still occasionally acts as a guest pundit doing eloquent previews and reviews on the various South African racing channels. Mark conducts popular podcasts on all Cape Town race meetings, building a reputation of integrity as an imaginative handicapper. He also writes extensively about the sport for Cape Racing and their media partners. With the wonders of technology, he follows the global racing scene from his Cape Town base. He lives there with his wife, Prof Edina Sinanovic who is an academic, and nineteen-year-old son, Max.

 

Expert Column for Cape Town Met Day (S3) (Mark van Deventer)

 

S3-1     Olympic Duel Stakes

 

Sixteen fillies and mares will compete in the Olympic Duel Stakes at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth, kicking off the World Pools initiative with the Hong Kong Jockey Club. The field size and several confirmed speedsters indicate a fast run for the 1200m race.

 

CANDY TOWN is the fastest, aiming to extend her speed from 1000m. SIDDELEY, last year’s runner-up, is another strong on-pace contender, along with DISTING, GOLDEN TATJANA, BERRY'S BOOGIE, and SOUTHERN SKIES.

 

Recent races show a preference for low numbers on the inside of the sprint course, benefiting NORDIC QUEST, a specialist who can use the inner rail to launch her late charge. She should be ready after a rest and has the speed to compete at this level.

 

SUMMER LILY is a deep closer who usually needs luck to get past tiring front-runners. A fast pace will help her, and jockey Grant van Niekerk has options from her middle draw.

 

Trainer Lucinda Woodruff is in great form, the 3YO MAI SENSATION trained by her, is a recent winner with potential, making her a key contender.

 

SYMPHONY IN WHITE was a top juvenile and now has a chance to prove herself, though her high draw could be a challenge. If she overcomes it, she has the ability to be competitive.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. NORDIC QUEST, 8. SUMMER LILY, 16. SYMPHONY IN WHITE, 12. CANDY TOWN & 13. MAI SENSATION

 

1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-1: Multiple – 1. NORDIC QUEST & 8. SUMMER LILY
S3-2: Multiple – 6. GIMME A PRINCE & 4. DYCE

 

S3-2     HKJC World Pool Cape Flying Championship

 

Fifteen of South Africa’s top sprinters will compete in the G1 HKJC World Pool Cape Flying Championship at Hollywoodbets Kenilworth, racing down the 1000m straight. All horses will carry 60kg, except for mare ASIYE PHAMBILI, who will carry 57.5kg.

 

Defending champion DYCE is trained by Lucy Houdalakis, who previously guided J.J. the Jet Plane to global success. Despite his physical challenges, DYCE has won ten of 21 starts and aims to perform well again.

 

2023 winner GIMME A PRINCE also has knee issues but is a strong contender with impressive acceleration. QUESTIONING is consistent and will run to his rating, making him a key contender.

 

KING OF THE GAULS has potential, evidenced by his Umgheni Sprint win from a tough draw, but performed poorly in his seasonal debut. He has been overlooked by top jockey Richard Fourie for ASIYE PHAMBILI, who has a solid record on this track and seeks her ninth win from 21 starts.

 

CRUISE CONTROL benefits from a favorable setup on a track favoring speed on the inside rail. He may be challenged by late runners but should lead for a while.

 

SELECTIONS: 6. GIMME A PRINCE, 4. DYCE, 10. QUESTIONING, 12.             KING OF THE GAULS & 2. CRUISE CONTROL

 

2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-2: Multiple – 6. GIMME A PRINCE & 4. DYCE
S3-3: Multiple – 10. EIGHT ON EIGHTEEN & 4. FUTURE SWING

 

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S3-2:   
Banker – 6. GIMME A PRINCE
Selections – 4. DYCE, 10. QUESTIONING, 12. KING OF THE GAULS & 2. CRUISE CONTROL
S3-3:   
Banker – 10. EIGHT ON EIGHTEEN
Selections – 4. FUTURE SWING, 16. RASCALLION, 15. MONTIEN & 11. MAGIC VERSE

 

S3-3     Cape Town Met

 

Middle-distance turf races in Cape Town typically aren't run at a fast pace, but this year's Cape Town Met features several potential pace-setters. While a pace collapse is unlikely, stamina over the ten panels will be crucial.

 

ORIENTAL CHARM won the G1 Durban July over 2200m and poses a threat from a low draw. ATTICUS FINCH won the G1 Summer Cup and has dominated Highveld races from prominent positions, while LITIGATION is an on-pace runner.

 

BARATHEON also likes to press on whilst classy filly, RED PALACE, the long-striding and athletic, MONTIEN bang-in-form, MAGIC VERSE and super-dependable, RASCALLION have all done best stalking, or occasionally, setting the speed.

 

The weight and projected strong pace favor SEE IT AGAIN, who has high-class stamina but has underperformed recently.

 

Whilst FUTURE SWING does not rate nearly as highly as SEE IT AGAIN, on pure ability he is in prime condition to give it a shot. He should work out a good trip, settled midfield off a brisk pace and has the stamina and finishing kick to make an impact in deep stretch.

 

Justin Snaith trained stable mate, 3YO, EIGHT ON EIGHTEEN is handicapped a big chance on a line through star contemporary, ONE STRIPE. Working on the basis that he’s length or so inferior to ONE STRIPE -a recent winner against elders in the prestigious G1 King’s Plate, then he will be a major player carrying just 54kg’s. There is a lingering query - he is untried over the distance.

 

SELECTIONS: 10. EIGHT ON EIGHTEEN, 4. FUTURE SWING, 16. RASCALLION, 15. MONTIEN & 11. MAGIC VERSE

 

3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-3: Multiple – 10. EIGHT ON EIGHTEEN & 4. FUTURE SWING
S3-4: Multiple – 8. MAJOR MASTER & 11. GARRIX

 

S3-4     Politician Stakes

 

There are no clear leaders in this G3 race for emerging 3YOs, and since many are trying this distance for the first time, it may be slow or only moderately paced.

 

Trainer Lucky Houdalakis brings WILD INTENT from Johannesburg. He has good form, should enjoy the longer trip, and will likely be ridden smartly by Gavin Lerena. ZEITZ, trained by Andre Nel, is a promising stayer and may also go forward after a solid performance post-Maiden in Class 4.

 

SAIL THE SEAS struggled in the G1 Cape Guineas but has four wins from seven starts and solid speed figures. He previously finished over three lengths ahead of GARRIX. SAIL THE SEAS is now drawn wide, as is GARRIX and it could be a closer tussle this time around.

 

MAJOR MASTER is a highly regarded 3YO from Bass Racing, showing strong final fractions in shorter races. A good performance here could set him up for the G1 Cape Derby, and he poses a genuine threat at 55.5kg.

 

DAWN TILL DUSK has mixed form but possesses a good turn of foot. He may be slow out but should secure a rail-hugging trip with rider JP van der Merwe, who excels with hold-up horses.

 

SELECTIONS: 8. MAJOR MASTER, 11. GARRIX, 12. SAIL THE SEAS, 7. WILD INTENT & 1. DAWN TILL DUSK

 

4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-4: Multiple – 8. MAJOR MASTER & 11. GARRIX
S3-5: Multiple – 13. ICONIC DESTINATION & 10. PLEASE BE TRUE

 

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S3-4:   
Banker – 8. MAJOR MASTER
Selections –11. GARRIX, 12. SAIL THE SEAS, 7. WILD INTENT & 1. DAWN TILL DUSK
S3-5:   
Banker – 13. ICONIC DESTINATION
Selections – 10. PLEASE BE TRUE, 3. GREEN GARNET, 7. UNICORN ALERT & 8. KING'S QUEST

 

S3-5     Class 4 Handicap

 

This Class 4 race is tightly rated and likely to run at a fast pace. FIRINGONALLENGINES, with one win from 15 starts but a career-best figure, and GREEN GARNET, both front-runners, have favorable low draws. Top jockey Gavin Lerena is riding GREEN GARNET for trainer Eric Sands, whose stable is in good form.

 

ICONIC DESTINATION is the mystery horse in this handicap. He suffered with breathing issues which seemed to have derailed his career. However, he recently ran much better since an apparently successful breathing operation. If he is indeed restored to health, then he surely will be competitive at this class level off a significantly lowered mark. That said, draw 13 complicates matters for jockey, Corne Orffer, on the boom- or- bust selection.

 

PLEASE BE TRUE is trained by the successful Justin Snaith and ridden by Richard Fourie, boasting impressive win and place rates. The 3YO son of ONE WORLD has shown progressive form. KING'S QUEST returns after winning a Maiden here nine weeks ago and is close in rating to PLEASE BE TRUE.

 

UNICORN ALERT is now 4.5kg’s better off for a two-length defeat to PLEASE BE TRUE, but he carries less weight this time, which is advantageous to overtake his rivals. The expected strong pace should help.

 

SELECTIONS: 13. ICONIC DESTINATION, 10. PLEASE BE TRUE, 3. GREEN GARNET, 7. UNICORN ALERT & 8. KING'S QUEST
                                                                             
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-5: Multiple – 13. ICONIC DESTINATION & 10. PLEASE BE TRUE
S3-6: Multiple – 11. THE REAL PRINCE & 13. SNOW PILOT

 

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S3-5: Multiple – 13. ICONIC DESTINATION, 10. PLEASE BE TRUE & 3. GREEN GARNET
S3-6: Multiple – 11. THE REAL PRINCE, 13. SNOW PILOT & 7. GALLIC DREAM
S3-7: Multiple – 10. CARRIACOU, 6. UN BEL DI & 7. WAR CHARIOT

 

S3-6     Cape A Stakes

 

This race features plenty of speed. ALL OUT FOR SIX has faced top 3YOs like ONE STRIPE and SNOW PILOT, using pace to his advantage.

 

2024 Cape Guineas winner SNOW PILOT is strong when leading, having won impressively by a large margin over this distance.

 

Light weight GALLIC DREAM prefers to race close but will let the front-runners set the pace, looking for a smooth stalking trip. However, he's moving up in class.

 

THE REAL PRINCE is a 4YO with great breeding (by GIMMETHEGREENLIGHT). He comes in off a good try in the G2 Cape Merchants. He easily beat the reopposing RAPIDASH at his previous start over this 1400m. Although with a wide draw, he could be a top contender.

 

MEU CAPITANO is a swooping sprinter now trying 1400m. His closing fractions suggest he might handle the distance, though he may prefer softer ground. Jockey Gavin Lerena, with a solid win rate, adds to his chances.

 

SELECTIONS: 11. THE REAL PRINCE, 13. SNOW PILOT, 7. GALLIC DREAM, 3. MEU CAPITANO & 4. ALL OUT FOR SIX

 

6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S3-6: Multiple – 11. THE REAL PRINCE & 13. SNOW PILOT
S3-7: Multiple – 10. CARRIACOU & 6. UN BEL DI

 

S3-7     Class 4 Handicap

 

Class 4 races can be tricky due to varying form as horses move between grades. A good strategy is to look for horses that have performed well recently at this level or slightly higher.

 

WAR CHARIOT has a history of coughing but has shown solid form in Class 3. If he keeps it up, he could be a threat dropping down in class. UN BEL DI made a promising return after a 31-week break during which he was gelded. He should be fitter now and is worth including on your shortlist.

 

CARRIACOU is consistent in both Class 3 and 4, with two wins from 22 starts. He may finish well if things go his way. Jockey Gavin Lerena and trainer Eric Sands have a strong partnership this season.

 

SUN DAZED and TOUGH TERRAIN are drawn inside CARRIACOU but have been regressing and are dropping in ratings. They typically race off the pace and finish late. Keep an eye on TOUGH TERRAIN with rider Grant van Niekerk for a late charge.

 

EMPIRE STATE has solid form over 1400m and is a contender despite carrying 62.5kg against older horses.

 

This race is a challenging end to the Cape Town Met day, with many potential winners. Punters should look for good value in their picks.

 

SELECTIONS: 10. CARRIACOU, 6. UN BEL DI, 7. WAR CHARIOT, 9. EMPIRE STATE & 2. TOUGH TERRAIN

 

 

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